1. Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of Monolepta signata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) Based on the Maximum Entropy Model.
- Author
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Liu, Qingzhao, Zhao, Jinyu, Hu, Chunyan, Ma, Jianguo, Deng, Caiping, Ma, Li, Qie, Xingtao, Yuan, Xiangyang, and Yan, Xizhong
- Abstract
Simple Summary: Monolepta signata is a highly destructive agricultural pest that causes significant economic losses to important economic crops such as maize and cotton in its native area: Asia. This study uses the maximum entropy model, combined with bioclimatic variables and altitude, to predict the potentially suitable areas and spread patterns of M. signata worldwide. The research results show that, in addition to its native area, M. signata has potentially suitable areas all over the world. The potential geographical distribution of this pest is gradually expanding globally. By predicting the potential occurrence and spread areas of M. signata worldwide, this study provides an important theoretical basis for formulating effective prevention and control measures and early-warning strategies for this pest. Monolepta signata is a polyphagous and highly destructive agricultural pest, currently only distributed in Asia. In its place of origin, it poses a serious threat to important economic crops, for instance, maize (Zea mays L.) and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Based on morphological and molecular data research, it has been found that M. quadriguttata (Motschulsky), M. hieroglyphica (Motschulsky), and M. signata are actually the same species. This discovery means that the range of this pest will expand, and it also increases the risk of it spreading to non-native areas worldwide. It is crucial for global agricultural production to understand which countries and regions are susceptible to invasion by M. signata and to formulate corresponding prevention, control, and monitoring strategies. This study uses the maximum entropy model, combined with bioclimatic variables and elevation, to predict the potentially suitable areas and diffusion patterns of M. signata worldwide. The results indicate that in its suitable area, M. signata is mainly affected by three key climatic factors: Precipitation of Wettest Month (bio13), Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (bio10), and Temperature Seasonality (bio4). Under the current status, the total suitable region of M. signata is 252,276.71 × 10
4 km2 . In addition to its native Asia, this pest has potentially suitable areas in Oceania, South America, North America, and Africa. In the future, with climate change, the suitable area of M. signata will expand to high-latitude areas and inland areas. This study found that by the 2070s, under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, the change in the potentially suitable area of this insect is the largest. By identifying the potentially suitable areas and key climatic factors of M. signata, we can provide theoretical and technical support to the government, enabling them to more effectively formulate strategies to deal with the spread, outbreak, and invasion of M. signata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2024
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