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The global climate is changing. Predicting the impacts this will have on buildings is the first step in the process of finding suitable building adaptation measures. Future climate adaptation of buildings and infrastructure is a growing field of research, relying on both socio-economical and meteorological research for input values to the simulation models. Models producing hourly future weather data rely on global climate models which are based on emission scenarios made from assumptions of future political, social, and economic developments. Accounting for the uncertainties from these underlying models as much as possible, and communicating the uncertainties in the results, is obviously paramount for reliable conclusions from the building simulation models. This paper is a scoping review, investigating how 132 studies treat and communicate the string of uncertainties from underlying models connected to future weather file generation in the scientific literature on building adaptation research. The findings suggest that climate-model-induced uncertainties are often under-communicated, due to either insufficient analysis or neglect. The studies that included the most comprehensive analyses of the uncertainties frequently concluded that treatment of these is important for the reliability of the results, and neglecting this could lead to misleading conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of Bangladesh is very likely to be influenced by global climate change. To quantify the influence on the climate of Bangladesh, Global Climate Models were downscaled statistically to produce future climate projections of maximum temperature during the pre-monsoon season (March–May) for the 21st century for Bangladesh. The future climate projections are generated based on three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The downscaling process is undertaken by relating the large-scale seasonal mean temperature, taken from the ERA5 reanalysis data set, to the leading principal components of the observed maximum temperature at stations under Bangladesh Meteorological Department in Bangladesh, and applying the relationship to the GCM ensemble. The in-situ temperature data has only recently been digitised, and this is the first time they have been used in statistical downscaling of local climate projections for Bangladesh. This analysis also provides an evaluation of the local data, and the local temperatures in Bangladesh show a close match with the ERA5 reanalysis. Compared to the reference period of 1981–2010, the projected maximum pre-monsoon temperature in Bangladesh indicate an increase by 0.7/0.7/0.7 ∘ C in the near future (2021–2050) and 2.2/1.2/0.8 ∘ C in the far future (2071–2100) assuming the RCP8.5/RCP4.5/RCP2.6 scenario, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change ought to be a natural part of the weather conversation on TV, radio and social media. Inspired by similar projects in other countries, the Norwegian Meteorological institute established a project in 2019 to develop their TV meteorologists as climate change communicators. The main objective in the project was to integrate research-based, localized climate content in the weather presentation, as to inform and engage the Norwegian public about climate change. Over a period of almost two years, the project has produced several climate stories on the national TV-news. The majority of the stories have also been shared through social media and through press releases to reach a wide range of audiences. In this paper, experiences from the project at the Norwegian Meteorological institute are shared along with recommendations for climate communication. We claim that TV meteorologists can have an important role in climate change communication, with a potential that is often not yet fully realized, and give our thoughts on how to further develop their role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents selected results of the interdisciplinary research project Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk) carried out between 2010 to 2013, as part of the program NORKLIMA (2004 2013) of the Research Council of Norway (RCN). The project has systematized large amounts of existing data and generated new results that are important for our handling of risks associated with future extreme weather and natural hazards threatening the transport infrastructure in Norway. The results of the InfaRisk project range widely, from the establishment of trends in key weather elements to studies of human response to threats from extreme weather. The analyses of weather elements have provided a clearer understanding of the trends in the development of extreme weather. The studies are based on both historical data and available future scenarios (projections) from climate models. Compared to previous studies, we calculated changes in climate variables that are particularly important in relation to nature hazards. Overall, the analyses document an increase in frequency as well as intensity of both precipitation and wind. Results of projections show that the observed changes will continue throughout this century. We could also identify large regional differences, with some areas experiencing, e.g., a reduction in the intensity of heavy rainfall events. However, most of the country will experience the opposite, i.e., both increased intensity and increased frequency of heavy precipitation. Our analyses show that at least 27 per cent of Norwegian roads and 31 per cent of railroads are exposed to rock fall and snow avalanches hazards. The project has also assessed relationships between different parameters that can affect the likelihood of debris flows. Variables such as terrain slope and size of watercourses are important, while local climate, which varies widely in Norway, determines threshold values for rainfall that can trigger debris flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted a matched case-control study to examine the association between heavy precipitation events and waterborne outbreaks (WBOs) by linking epidemiological registries and meteorological data between 1992 and 2012 in four Nordic countries. Heavy precipitation events were defined by above average (exceedance) daily rainfall during the preceding weeks using local references. We performed conditional logistic regression using the four previous years as the controls. Among WBOs with known onset date (n = 89), exceedance rainfall on two or more days was associated with occurrence of outbreak, OR = 3.06 (95% CI 1.38-6.78), compared to zero exceedance days. Stratified analyses revealed a significant association with single household water supplies, ground water as source and for outbreaks occurring during spring and summer. These findings were reproduced in analyses including all WBOs with known outbreak month (n = 186). The vulnerability of single households to WBOs associated with heavy precipitation events should be communicated to homeowners and implemented into future policy planning to reduce the risk of waterborne illness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among papers stating a position on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), 97 % endorse AGW. What is happening with the 2 % of papers that reject AGW? We examine a selection of papers rejecting AGW. An analytical tool has been developed to replicate and test the results and methods used in these studies; our replication reveals a number of methodological flaws, and a pattern of common mistakes emerges that is not visible when looking at single isolated cases. Thus, real-life scientific disputes in some cases can be resolved, and we can learn from mistakes. A common denominator seems to be missing contextual information or ignoring information that does not fit the conclusions, be it other relevant work or related geophysical data. In many cases, shortcomings are due to insufficient model evaluation, leading to results that are not universally valid but rather are an artifact of a particular experimental setup. Other typical weaknesses include false dichotomies, inappropriate statistical methods, or basing conclusions on misconceived or incomplete physics. We also argue that science is never settled and that both mainstream and contrarian papers must be subject to sustained scrutiny. The merit of replication is highlighted and we discuss how the quality of the scientific literature may benefit from replication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is among the most important vector borne diseases of humans in Europe and is currently identified as a major health problem in many countries. TBE endemic zones have expanded over the past two decades, as well as the number of reported cases within endemic areas. Multiple factors are ascribed for the increased incidence of TBE, including climatic change. The number of TBE cases has also increased in Norway over the past decade, and the human cases cluster along the southern coast of Norway. In Norway the distribution and prevalence of TBE virus (TBEV) in tick populations is largely unknown. The objectives of this study were to estimate the TBEV prevalence in Ixodes ricinus from seven locations and to assess the relationship between the TBEV prevalence and site-specific climatic variables.Methods: A total of 5630 questing nymphs were collected and analyzed in pools of ten. All pools were screened with an in-house real-time RT-PCR, and the positive pools were pyrosequenced. Two methods, minimum infection rate (MIR) and a frequentist method (EPP) for pooled prevalence estimations were calculated and compared. Climatic data were descriptively compared to the corresponding EPP of each location in order to explain variations in TBEV prevalence. Results: The seven foci of TBEV had an estimated overall prevalence (EPP) in pools of nymphs combined, of 0.53% with 95% CI (0.35-0.75), with point prevalence ranging between 0.11%-1.22%. The sites with the highest point prevalences were within the municipalities which had the highest numbers of registered TBE cases. The results indicate that the location with highest point prevalence had the highest relative mean humidity and lowest mean saturation deficit and vice versa for the lowest EPP. Conclusion: Our study confirms the existence of TBEV endemic foci in Norway. These results are of importance to increase the awareness of TBEV infections in Norway and could be used for public information and recommendations of TBE vaccination. EPP is the method of choice for pooled prevalence calculations, since it provides estimated prevalences with confidence intervals. Our findings emphasise the possible importance of microclimatic conditions regarding the TBEV prevalence in ticks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the exploitation ecosystems hypothesis (EEH), productive terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by community-level trophic cascades, whereas unproductive ecosystems harbor food-limited grazers, which regulate community-level plant biomass. We tested this hypothesis along arctic-alpine productivity gradients at the Joatka field base, Finnmark, Norway. In unproductive habitats, mammalian predators were absent and plant biomass was constant, whereas herbivore biomass varied, reflecting the productivity of the habitat. In productive habitats, predatory mammals were persistently present and plant biomass varied in space, but herbivore biomass did not. Plant biomass of productive tundra scrublands declined by 40% when vegetation blocks were transferred to predation-free islands. Corresponding transfer to herbivore-free islands triggered an increase in plant biomass. Fertilization of an unproductive tundra heath resulted in a fourfold increase in rodent density and a corresponding increase in winter grazing activity, whereas the total aboveground plant biomass remained unchanged. These results corroborate the predictions of the EEH, implying that the endotherm community and the vegetation of the North European tundra behaves dynamically as if each trophic level consisted of a single population, in spite of local co-occurrence of 120 plant species representing different major taxonomic groups, growth forms, and defensive strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between building materials, structures and climate is complex and there is an urgent need for more accurate methods to assess building performance. For example, the lifetime of wooden cladding is strongly dependent on the local-level climatic impact. A national map of the potential for decay in wood structures in Norway is presented based on Scheffer's climate index formula. Weather data are used from 115 observing stations for the reference 30-year period 1961–90. The climate index distribution allows for geographically differentiated guidelines on protective measures. Detailed scenarios for climate change for selected locations in Norway are used to provide an indication of the possible future development of decay rates. Climate indices allowing for the quantitative assessment of building enclosure performance may be an important element in the development of adaptation measures to meet the future risks of climate change in different parts of the world. Established quantified relations between climatic impact and material behaviour or building performance can be used as a tool for the evaluation of the need for changes in functional requirements. The presented work represents an example of a first step towards such measures. Ways to improve the reliability of the index further are also suggested.Les relations qui existent entre les matériaux de construction, les structures et le climat sont complexes et il est urgent de disposer de méthodes plus précises pour évaluer les performances des bâtiments. Ainsi, la durée de vie d'un revêtement en bois est étroitement liée à l'impact du climat au niveau local. En Norvège, sur la base de la formule de l'indice climatique de Scheffer, on a dressé une carte nationale des risques de dégradation des structures en bois. Cent quinze stations d'observation ont fourni des données météorologiques pour la période de référence de 30 ans de 1961 à 1990. La distribution de l'indice climatique permet de rédiger des directives différenciées en fonction de la géographie concernant les mesures de protection. Des scénarios détaillés relatifs au changement climatique pour des sites sélectionnés en Norvège servent à donner une indication de l'évolution possible des taux de dégradation. Les indices climatiques permettant de procéder à une évaluation quantitative des performances des enveloppes de bâtiments peuvent être un élément important dans la formulation de mesures d'adaptation afin de répondre aux risques futurs des changements climatiques dans différentes parties du monde. Les relations quantifiées établies entre l'impact climatique et le comportement des matériaux et les performances des bâtiments peuvent être utilisées comme outils pour évaluer la nécessité de modifier les exigences fonctionnelles. Le travail présenté dans cet article est un exemple d'une première étape vers de telles mesures. L'auteur suggère également des voies afin d'améliorer encore davantage la fiabilité des indices.Mots clés: enveloppes des bâtiments, performance des bâtiments, adaptation climatique, changements climatiques, risques de dégradation, structures en bois, Norvège [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]