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Background: Characteristics at clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) examination assist in identification of patient at highest risk of early second attack and could benefit the most from early disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). Objective: To examine determinants of second attack and validate a prognostic nomogram for individualised risk assessment of clinical conversion. Methods: Patients with CIS were prospectively followed up in the MSBase Incident Study. Predictors of clinical conversion were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic nomograms were derived to calculate conversion probability and validated using concordance indices. Results: A total of 3296 patients from 50 clinics in 22 countries were followed up for a median (inter-quartile range (IQR)) of 1.92 years (0.90, 3.71). In all, 1953 (59.3%) patients recorded a second attack. Higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, first symptom location, oligoclonal bands and various brain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics were all predictors of conversion. Conversely, older age and DMD exposure post-CIS were associated with reduced rates. Prognostic nomograms demonstrated high concordance between estimated and observed conversion probabilities. Conclusion: This multinational study shows that age at CIS onset, DMD exposure, EDSS, multiple brain and spinal MRI criteria and oligoclonal bands are associated with shorter time to relapse. Nomogram assessment may be useful in clinical practice for estimating future clinical conversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Age at onset (AAO) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is an important marker of disease severity and may have prognostic significance. Understanding what factors can influence AAO may shed light on the aetiology of this complex disease, and have applications in the diagnostic process.Methods: The study cohort of 22 162 eligible patients from 21 countries was extracted from the MSBase registry. Only patients with MS aged ≥16 years were included. To reduce heterogeneity, only centres of largely European descent were included for analysis. AAO was defined as the year of the first symptom suggestive of inflammatory central nervous system demyelination. Predictors of AAO were evaluated by linear regression.Results: Compared with those living in lower latitudes (19.0-39.9°), onset of symptoms was 1.9 years earlier for those at higher latitudes (50.0-56.0°) (p=3.83×10-23). A reciprocal relationship was seen for ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR), with a significantly increasing AAO for patients with MS per each quartile increment of ambient UVR (p=1.56×10-17). We found that the AAO of female patients was ∼5 months earlier than male patients (p=0.002). AAO of progressive-onset patients with MS were ∼9 years later than relapsing-onset patients (p=1.40×10-265).Conclusions: An earlier AAO in higher latitude regions was found in this worldwide European-descent cohort and correlated inversely with variation in latitudinal UVR. These results suggest that environmental factors which act at the population level may significantly influence disease severity characteristics in genetically susceptible populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Discontinuation of injectable disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS) after a long period of relapse freedom is frequently considered, but data on post-cessation disease course are lacking.Objectives: (1) To compare time to first relapse and disability progression among 'DMT stoppers' and propensity-score matched 'DMT stayers' in the MSBase Registry; (2) To identify predictors of time to first relapse and disability progression in DMT stoppers.Methods: Inclusion criteria for DMT stoppers were: age ≥18 years; no relapses for ≥5 years at DMT discontinuation; follow-up for ≥3 years after stopping DMT; not restarting DMT for ≥3 months after discontinuation. DMT stayers were required to have no relapses for ≥5 years at baseline, and were propensity-score matched to stoppers for age, sex, disability (Expanded Disability Status Score), disease duration and time on treatment. Relapse and disability progression events in matched stoppers and stayers were compared using a marginal Cox model. Predictors of first relapse and disability progression among DMT stoppers were investigated using a Cox proportional hazards model.Results: Time to first relapse among 485 DMT stoppers and 854 stayers was similar (adjusted HR, aHR=1.07, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.37; p=0.584), while time to confirmed disability progression was significantly shorter among DMT stoppers than stayers (aHR=1.47, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.84, p=0.001). The difference in hazards of progression was due mainly to patients who had not experienced disability progression in the prebaseline treatment period.Conclusions: Patients with MS who discontinued injectable DMT after a long period of relapse freedom had a similar relapse rate as propensity score-matched patients who continued on DMT, but higher hazard for disability progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To identify predictors of 10-year Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) change after treatment initiation in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis.Methods: Using data obtained from MSBase, we defined baseline as the date of first injectable therapy initiation. Patients need only have remained on injectable therapy for 1 day and were monitored on any approved disease-modifying therapy, or no therapy thereafter. Median EDSS score changes over a 10-year period were determined. Predictors of EDSS change were then assessed using median quantile regression analysis. Sensitivity analyses were further performed.Results: We identified 2,466 patients followed up for at least 10 years reporting post-baseline disability scores. Patients were treated an average 83% of their follow-up time. EDSS scores increased by a median 1 point (interquartile range = 0-2) at 10 years post-baseline. Annualized relapse rate was highly predictive of increases in median EDSS over 10 years (coeff = 1.14, p = 1.9 × 10(-22) ). On-therapy relapses carried greater burden than off-therapy relapses. Cumulative treatment exposure was independently associated with lower EDSS at 10 years (coeff = -0.86, p = 1.3 × 10(-9) ). Furthermore, pregnancies were also independently associated with lower EDSS scores over the 10-year observation period (coeff = -0.36, p = 0.009).Interpretation: We provide evidence of long-term treatment benefit in a large registry cohort, and provide evidence of long-term protective effects of pregnancy against disability accrual. We demonstrate that high annualized relapse rate, particularly on-treatment relapse, is an indicator of poor prognosis. Ann Neurol 2016;80:89-100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We aimed to analyse the effect of the introduction of fingolimod, the first oral disease-modifying therapy, on treatment utilisation and persistence in an international cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: MSBASIS, a prospective, observational sub-study of the MSBase registry, collects demographic, clinical and paraclinical data on patients followed from MS onset (n=4718). We conducted a multivariable conditional risk set survival analysis to identify predictors of treatment discontinuation, and to assess if the introduction of fingolimod has altered treatment persistence. Results: A total of 2640 patients commenced immunomodulatory therapy. Following the introduction of fingolimod, patients were more likely to discontinue all other treatments (hazard ratio 1.64, p<0.001) while more patients switched to fingolimod than any other therapy (42.3% of switches). Patients switched to fingolimod due to convenience. Patients treated with fingolimod were less likely to discontinue treatment compared with other therapies (p<0.001). Female sex, country of residence, younger age, a high Expanded Disability Status Scale score and relapse activity were all independently associated with higher rates of treatment discontinuation. Conclusion: Following the availability of fingolimod, patients were more likely to discontinue injectable treatments. Those who switched to fingolimod were more likely to do so for convenience. Persistence was improved on fingolimod compared to other medications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comparative effectiveness of fingolimod versus interferon beta/glatiramer acetate was assessed in a multicentre, observational, prospectively acquired cohort study including 613 patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis discontinuing natalizumab in the Italian iMedWeb registry. First, after natalizumab suspension, the relapse risk during the untreated wash-out period and during the course of switch therapies was estimated through Poisson regression analyses in separated models. During the wash-out period an increased risk of relapses was found in patients with a higher number of relapses before natalizumab treatment (incidence rate ratio = 1.31, P = 0.0014) and in patients discontinuing natalizumab due to lack of efficacy (incidence rate ratio = 2.33, P = 0.0288), patient's choice (incidence rate ratio = 2.18, P = 0.0064) and adverse events (incidence rate ratio = 2.09, P = 0.0084). The strongest independent factors influencing the relapse risk after the start of switch therapies were a wash-out duration longer than 3 months (incidence rate ratio = 1.78, P < 0.0001), the number of relapses experienced during and before natalizumab treatment (incidence rate ratio = 1.61, P < 0.0001; incidence rate ratio = 1.13, P = 0.0118, respectively) and the presence of comorbidities (incidence rate ratio = 1.4, P = 0.0097). Switching to fingolimod was associated with a 64% reduction of the adjusted-risk for relapse in comparison with switching to interferon beta/glatiramer acetate (incidence rate ratio = 0.36, P < 0.0001). Secondly, patients who switched to fingolimod or to interferon beta/glatiramer acetate were propensity score-matched on a 1-to-1 basis at the switching date. In the propensity score-matched sample a Poisson model showed a significant lower incidence of relapses in patients treated with fingolimod in comparison with those treated with interferon beta/glatiramer acetate (incidence rate ratio = 0.52, P = 0.0003) during a 12-month follow-up. The cumulative probability of a first relapse after the treatment switch was significantly lower in patients receiving fingolimod than in those receiving interferon beta/glatiramer acetate (P = 0.028). The robustness of this result was also confirmed by sensitivity analyses in subgroups with different wash-out durations (less or more than 3 months). Time to 3-month confirmed disability progression was not significantly different between the two groups (Hazard ratio = 0.58; P = 0.1931). Our results indicate a superiority of fingolimod in comparison to interferon beta/glatiramer acetate in controlling disease reactivation after natalizumab discontinuation in the real life setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The results of head-to-head comparisons of injectable immunomodulators (interferon β, glatiramer acetate) have been inconclusive and a comprehensive analysis of their effectiveness is needed. Objective: We aimed to compare, in a real-world setting, relapse and disability outcomes among patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) treated with injectable immunomodulators. Methods: Pairwise analysis of the international MSBase registry data was conducted using propensity-score matching. The four injectable immunomodulators were compared in six head-to-head analyses of relapse and disability outcomes using paired mixed models or frailty proportional hazards models adjusted for magnetic resonance imaging variables. Sensitivity and power analyses were conducted. Results: Of the 3326 included patients, 345–1199 patients per therapy were matched (median pairwise-censored follow-up was 3.7 years). Propensity matching eliminated >95% of the identified indication bias. Slightly lower relapse incidence was found among patients treated with glatiramer acetate or subcutaneous interferon β-1a relative to intramuscular interferon β-1a and interferon β-1b (p≤0.001). No differences in 12-month confirmed progression of disability were observed. Conclusion: Small but statistically significant differences in relapse outcomes exist among the injectable immunomodulators. MSBase is sufficiently powered to identify these differences and reflects practice in tertiary MS centres. While the present study controlled indication, selection and attrition bias, centre-dependent variance in data quality was likely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multiple Sclerosis is more common in women than men and females have more relapses than men. In a large international cohort we have evaluated the effect of gender on disability accumulation and disease progression to determine if male MS patients have a worse clinical outcome than females. Methods: Using the MSBase Registry, data from 15,826 MS patients from 25 countries was analysed. Changes in the severity of MS (EDSS) were compared between sexes using a repeated measures analysis in generalised linear mixed models. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to test for sex difference in the time to reach EDSS milestones 3 and 6 and the secondary progressive MS. Results: In relapse onset MS patients (n = 14,453), males progressed significantly faster in their EDSS than females (0.133 vs 0.112 per year, P<0.001,). Females had a reduced risk of secondary progressive MS (HR (95% CI) = 0.77 (0.67 to 0.90) P = 0.001). In primary progressive MS (n = 1,373), there was a significant increase in EDSS over time in males and females (P<0.001) but there was no significant sex effect on the annualized rate of EDSS change. Conclusion: Among registrants of MSBase, male relapse-onset patients accumulate disability faster than female patients. In contrast, the rate of disability accumulation between male and female patients with primary progressive MS is similar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To assess demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment exposure predictors of time to 3 or 12-month confirmed disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and early multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods We utilized the MSBase Incident Study ( MSBasis), a prospective cohort study of outcome after CIS. Predictors of time to first 3 and 12-month confirmed expanded disability status scale worsening were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results About 1989 patients were analyzed, the largest seen-from-onset cohort reported to-date. A total of 391 patients had a first 3-month confirmed disability worsening event, of which 307 were sustained for 12 months. Older age at CIS onset (adjusted hazard ratio: aHR 1.17, 95% 1.06, 1.30), pyramidal ( aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13, 1.89) and ambulation ( HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.09, 2.34) system dysfunction, annualized relapse rate ( aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.18, 1.22), and lower proportion of observation time on treatment were associated with 3-month confirmed worsening. Predictors of time to 12-month sustained worsening included pyramidal system dysfunction (Hazard ratio: aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.05, 1.83), and older age at CIS onset ( aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.31). Greater proportion of follow-up time exposed to treatment was associated with greater reductions in the rate of worsening. Interpretation This study provides class IV evidence for a strong protective effect of disease-modifying treatment to reduce disability worsening events in patients with CIS and early MS, and confirms age and pyramidal dysfunction at onset as risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which analyzes risk of relapse phenotype recurrence in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). MSBase, an international observational registry, was used and the association between relapse phenotypes and history of similar relapses were tested through multivariable logistic regression models. The study found that relapse phenotype was associated with demographic and clinical characteristics and phenotypic recurrence significantly more common.

The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48 362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10−12). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10−12). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Previous papers show discordant patterns of monthly and seasonal differences in the frequency of multiple sclerosis relapses. Attacks are more often reported in spring and summer, but there are many variations, mainly as to summer peaks. This paper, an MSBase collaboration substudy, reports multiple series of relapses from 1980 to 2010, comparing ultradecennal trends of seasonal frequency of attacks in different countries. The MSBase international database was searched for relapses in series recording patient histories from 1980 up to 2010. The number of relapses by month was stratified by decade (1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2010). Positive spring versus summer peaks were compared by odds ratios; different series were compared by weighted odds ratio (Peto OR). Decade comparison of the 1990s versus 2000s shows inversion of spring-summer peak (2000s = March; 1990s = July), significant in the whole group (Peto odds ratio = 1.31, CI = 1.10-1.56, p = 0.003) and in Salerno series (OR = 1.97, CI = 1.14-1.40). The global significance persisted also excluding Salerno series (Peto odds ratio = 1.25, CI = 1.04-1.50, p = 0.002). Multicentric data confirm a summer peak of relapses in the 1991-2000 decade, significantly different from the spring peak of 2001-2010. Seasonal frequency of relapses shows long-term variations, so that other factors such as viral epidemics might have more relevance than ultraviolet exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous papers show different patterns of seasonal distribution of multiple sclerosis attacks. This paper compares long-time modifications. Salerno MS registry (Southern Italy), was reviewed, including 189 patients, age onset 12-51 years (mean = 29.88, SD = 8.4), disease duration mean = 6.94 years (1-29), attacks mean = 4.5 (2-25, SD = 3.41). Data were stratified by decades. Number of events/month was analyzed by odds ratios and forecast modeling (ARIMA); means by ANOVA and post hoc tests, and correlations by multiple regression. We found 869 relapses: J = 72, F = 48, M = 122, A = 75, M = 68, Jn = 59, Jl = 81, A = 74, S = 63, O = 70, N = 72, D = 65. In 2001-2008 there was one significant peak (March); in 1991-2000 many (greatest = July), and in 1984-1990, one positive (June), one negative (April). Differences between 1990s and 2000s are significant. It is the first study addressing ultradecennal trends, and finding that the season distribution of MS attacks is significantly different: the study confirms frequency peaks in early spring and summer, but they are different in different decades. This significant ultra-decade difference might support hypotheses more linked to infections or toxic substances than to sunlight, UV, or similar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We conducted a prospective study, MSBASIS, to assess factors leading to first treatment discontinuation in patients with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Methods: The MSBASIS Study, conducted by MSBase Study Group members, enrols patients seen from CIS onset, reporting baseline demographics, cerebral magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores. Follow-up visits report relapses, EDSS scores, and the start and end dates of MS-specific therapies. We performed a multivariable survival analysis to determine factors within this dataset that predict first treatment discontinuation. Results: A total of 2314 CIS patients from 44 centres were followed for a median of 2.7 years, during which time 1247 commenced immunomodulatory drug (IMD) treatment. Ninety percent initiated IMD after a diagnosis of MS was confirmed, and 10% while still in CIS status. Over 40% of these patients stopped their first IMD during the observation period. Females were more likely to cease medication than males (HR 1.36, p = 0.003). Patients treated in Australia were twice as likely to cease their first IMD than patients treated in Spain (HR 1.98, p = 0.001). Increasing EDSS was associated with higher rate of IMD cessation (HR 1.21 per EDSS unit, p<0.001), and intramuscular interferon-β-1a (HR 1.38, p = 0.028) and subcutaneous interferon-β-1a (HR 1.45, p = 0.012) had higher rates of discontinuation than glatiramer acetate, although this varied widely in different countries. Onset cerebral MRI features, age, time to treatment initiation or relapse on treatment were not associated with IMD cessation. Conclusion: In this multivariable survival analysis, female sex, country of residence, EDSS change and IMD choice independently predicted time to first IMD cessation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) is widely used to rate multiple sclerosis (MS) disability, but lack of disease duration information limits utility in assessing severity. EDSS ranking at specific disease durations was used to devise the MS Severity Score, which is gaining popularity for predicting outcomes. As this requires validation in longitudinal cohorts, we aimed to assess the utility of EDSS ranking as a predictor of 5-year outcome in the MSBase Registry. Methods Rank stability of EDSS over time was examined in the MSBase Registry, a large multicentre MS cohort. Scores were ranked for 5-year intervals, and correlation of rank across intervals was assessed using Spearman's rank correlation. EDSS progression outcomes at 10 years were disaggregated by 5-year EDSS scores. Results Correlation coefficients for EDSS rank over 5-year intervals increased with MS duration: years 1-6=0.55, years 4-9=0.74, years 7-12=0.80 and years 10-15=0.83. EDSS progression risk at 10 years after onset was highly dependent on EDSS at 5 years; one-point progression risk was greater for EDSS score of >2 than ≤2. Two-point progression was uncommon for EDSS score of <2 and more common at EDSS score of 4. Conclusions EDSS rank stability increases with disease duration, probably due to reduced relapses and less random variation in later disease. After 4 years duration, EDSS rank was highly predictive of EDSS rank 5 years later. Risk of progression by 10 years was highly dependent on EDSS score at 5 years duration. We confirm the utility of EDSS ranking to predict 5-year outcome in individuals 4 years after disease onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article investigates the frequency of positivity to autoantibodies in multiple sclerosis patients. It has been observed that humoral autoimmunity has been observed in patients subjected to interferon therapy. The frequency of positivity to autoantibodies were measured in 169 multiple sclerosis patients divided according to gender, clinical parameters, magnetic resonance imaging features and disease modifying therapy. The results indicated higher frequency of autoantibodies in patients treated with interferons.

Background: Relapse is a relatively sudden worsening of neurological status in multiple sclerosis patients. The aim of this paper is to describe the frequency and timing of the subsequent clinical remission, and factors linked to a possible lack of recovery. Methods: Two hundred and twenty-three relapses in 62 multiple sclerosis patients were examined retrospectively. Kurtzke’s Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were calculated every 3 months from 1 year before to 1 year after. Remission was defined as improvement vs. the EDSS as scored during the relapse. Recovery was defined as return to the EDSS as scored before the relapse. Results: The frequency of improvement was 78% at 3 months, 86% at 6, and lower in males (65 vs. 81%). The frequency of recovery was 55% at 3 months, 71% at 6. Kaplan-Meier curves showed stabilization after 6 months, with improvement in 90% of patients, 100% without further relapses. Relapses without recovery were only 30%; 15% excluding short-term relapses. Conclusions: Incomplete remissions do not appear to be linked to the evolution of the relapse, but to further relapses in the following months; in other words, to the short-term relapse rate. Copyright © 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]