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I show that frequent batch auctions for stocks have the potential to reduce the severity of stock price crashes when they occur. For a given sequence of orders from a continuous electronic limit order book market, matching orders using one-second apart batch auctions results in nearly the same trades and prices. Increasing the time interval between auctions to one minute significantly reduces the severity stock price crashes. In spite of this and other advantages pointed out in the literature, frequent batch auctions have not caught on. There is a need for carefully designed market experiments to understand why and what aspect of reality academic research may be missing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that a mutual fund's stock selection skill can be decomposed into additional components that include liquidity-absorbing impatient trading and liquidity provision. We find that past performance predicts future performance better among funds trading in stocks affected more by information events: Past winners earn a risk-adjusted after-fee excess return of 35 basis points per month in the future. Most of that superior performance comes from impatient trading. We also find that impatient trading is more important for growth-oriented funds, and liquidity provision is more important for younger income funds. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

When consumption betas of stocks are computed using year-over-year consumption growth based upon the fourth quarter, the consumption-based asset pricing model (CCAPM) explains the cross-section of stock returns as well as the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model. The CCAPM's performance deteriorates substantially when consumption growth is measured based upon other quarters. For the CCAPM to hold at any given point in time, investors must make their consumption and investment decisions simultaneously at that point in time. We suspect that this is more likely to happen during the fourth quarter, given investors' tax year ends in December. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find that on average, an announcement of rising unemployment is good news for stocks during economic expansions and bad news during economic contractions. Unemployment news bundles three types of primitive information relevant for valuing stocks: information about future interest rates, the equity risk premium, and corporate earnings and dividends. The nature of the information bundle, and hence the relative importance of the three effects, changes over time depending on the state of the economy. For stocks as a group, information about interest rates dominates during expansions and information about future corporate dividends dominates during contractions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green and Hollifield (1992) argue that the presence of a dominant factor would result in extreme negative weights in mean-variance efficient portfolios even in the absence of estimation errors. In that case, imposing no-short-sale constraints should hurt, whereas empirical evidence is often to the contrary. We reconcile this apparent contradiction. We explain why constraining portfolio weights to be nonnegative can reduce the risk in estimated optimal portfolios even when the constraints are wrong. Surprisingly, with no-short-sale constraints in place, the sample covariance matrix performs as well as covariance matrix estimates based on factor models, shrinkage estimators, and daily data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stochastic discount factor (SDF) method provides a unified general framework for econometric analysis of asset-pricing models. There have been concerns that, compared to the classical beta method, the generality of the SDF method comes at the cost of efficiency in parameter estimation and power in specification tests. We establish the correct framework for comparing the two methods and show that the SDF method is as efficient as the beta method for estimating risk premiums. Also, the specification test based on the SDF method is as powerful as the one based on the beta method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This note corrects an error in the proof of Proposition 2 of "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraint Helps" that appeared in the Journal of Finance, August 2003. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction for the article "Dividend Dynamics, Learning, and Expected Stock Index Returns" which was published in a previous issue is presented.

We present a latent variable model of dividends that predicts, out‐of‐sample, 39.5% to 41.3% of the variation in annual dividend growth rates between 1975 and 2016. Further, when learning about dividend dynamics is incorporated into a long‐run risks model, the model predicts, out‐of‐sample, 25.3% to 27.1% of the variation in annual stock index returns over the same time horizon, with learning contributing approximately half of the predictability in returns. These findings support the view that investors' aversion to long‐run risks and their learning about these risks are important in determining stock index prices and expected returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Without the assumption of conditional homoskedasticity, a general asymptotic distribution theory for the two-stage cross-sectional regression method shows that the standard errors produced by the Fama-MacBeth procedure do not necessarily overstate the precision of the risk premium estimates. When factors are misspecified, estimators for risk premiums can be biased, and the t-value of a premium may converge to infinity in probability even when the true premium is zero. However, when a beta-pricing model is misspecified, the t-values for firm characteristics generally converge to infinity in probability, which supports the use of firm characteristics in cross-sectional regressions for detecting model misspecification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we develop alternative ways to compare asset pricing models when it is understood that their implied stochastic discount factors do not price all portfolios correctly. Unlike comparisons based on x2 statistics associated with null hypotheses that models are correct, our measures of model performance do not reward variability of discount factor proxies. One of our measures is designed to exploit fully the implications of arbitrage-free pricing of derivative claims. We demonstrate empirically the usefulness of our methods in assessing some alternative stochastic factor models that have been proposed in asset pricing literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most empirical studies of the static CAPM assume that betas remain constant over time and that the return on the value-weighted portfolio of all stocks is a proxy for the return on aggregate wealth. The general consensus is that the static CAPM is unable to explain satisfactorily the cross-section of average returns on stocks. We assume that the CAPM holds in a conditional sense, i.e., betas and the market risk premium vary over time. We include the return on human capital when measuring the return on aggregate wealth. Our specification performs well in explaining the cross-section of average returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find support for a negative relation between conditional expected monthly return and conditional variance of monthly return, using a GARCH-M model modified by allowing (1) seasonal patterns in volatility, (2) positive and negative innovations to returns having different impacts on conditional volatility, and (3) nominal interest rates to predict conditional variance. Using the modified GARCH-M model, we also show that monthly conditional volatility may not be as persistent as was thought. Positive unanticipated returns appear to result in a downward revision of the conditional volatility whereas negative unanticipated returns result in an upward revision of conditional volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the one-month interest rate is useful in forecasting the sign as well as the variance of the excess return on stocks. The services of a portfolio manager who makes use of the forecasting model to shift funds between bills and stocks would be worth an annual management fee of 2% of the value of the assets managed. During 1954:4 to 1986:12, the variance of monthly returns on the managed portfolio was about 60% of the variance of the returns on the value weighted index, whereas the average return was two basis points higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a rationale for the presence of points in mortgage loan contracts. Our analysis builds on two key features. First, insurance markets are unavailable for labor income. Second the "duo-on-sale" clause allows banks to offer loan contracts which partially insure against fluctuations in labor income. If explicit prepayment penalties are prohibited by law, points serve effectively as prepayment penalties. We also examine environments where such penalties are not prohibited and show that points will be used if interest rates cannot depend on the size of the loan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that bank runs can be modeled as an equilibrium phenomenon. We demonstrate that some aspects of the intuitive "story" that bank runs start with fears of insolvency of banks can be rigorously modeled. If individuals observe long "lines" at the bank, they correctly infer that there is a possibility that the bank is about to fail and precipitate a bank run. However, bank runs occur even when no one has any adverse information. Extra market constraints such as suspension of convertibility can prevent bank runs and result in superior allocations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we extend the multigood futures pricing model of Grauer and Litzenberger [9] to a dynamic discrete time setting. We then test the model using data on futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans. The parameter estimates we obtain are similar to those obtained by other researchers using stock return data. The model itself is rejected and we offer some suggestions as to which assumption may be violated. We also give an interpretation to the Hansen-Singleton nonlinear instrumental variables estimation technique used in our empirical work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a corrective note to "The conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the cross-section of expected returns," which appeared in the March 1996 issue of "The Journal of Finance."

Hedge fund clones provide a liquid, efficient, and transparent alternative to investing in hedge funds. As a group, however, their recent performance has been disappointing, despite the large variation in the replication methodologies used. The author investigates hedge fond clones' tracking errors and finds that contrary to common belief, the reliance on historical data to "reverse engineer" hedge fund allocation is not the primary cause. Instead, the author identifies two important drivers of tracking errors of hedge fund clones. One is changes in marketwide liquidity levels as measured by the basis between derivatives and cash securities. The second is biases in measuring the returns that arise due to attrition among hedge funds that affect the performance of commonly used hedge fund indices. Together, they account for about half of the variation in hedge fund clones' tracking errors over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that when investors review their consumption and investment plans infrequently at different points in time with interim information flows, the standard consumption-based capital asset pricing model(CCAPM) will continue to hold only at those points in time when all investors review their plans. Stylized facts suggest that the end of the tax year is a candidate for one such points in time. Therefore, we should expect more support for the CCAPM during the period surrounding the end of the tax year, i.e., the fourth and first quarters in Japan where the tax year ends in December, and the first and second quarters in the United Kingdom where the tax year ends in April. Our empirical findings are consistent with these expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In measuring performance persistence, we use hedge fund style benchmarks. This allows us to identify managers with valuable skills, and also to control for option-like features inherent in returns from hedge fund strategies. We take into account the possibility that reported asset values may be based on stale prices. We develop a statistical model that relates a hedge fund's performance to its decision to liquidate or close in order to infer the performance of a hedge fund that left the database. Although we find significant performance persistence among superior funds, we find little evidence of persistence among inferior funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a jackknife estimator for the conditional variance of a minimum tracking error variance portfolio constructed using estimated covariances. We empirically evaluate the performance of our estimator using an optimal portfolio of 200 stocks that has the lowest tracking error with respect to the S&P 500 benchmark when three years of daily return data are used for estimating covariances. We find that our jackknife estimator provides more precise estimates and suffers less from in-sample optimism when compared to conventional estimators [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advocates a hybrid strategy to the initial public offering (IPO) process in the United States, which is preserving the main advantages of bookbuilding while addressing the concerns about exclusivity and lack of transparency. Debate about IPO methods in the U.S., namely the uniform-price auctions and bookbuilding; Proposals for institutional investors; Lessons from the Petronas Gas IPO in Malaysia; Encouragement of retail participation.

A key input to the capital budgeting process is the cost of capital. Financial managers most often use the CAPM to estimate the cost of capital for which they need to know the market risk premium. Textbooks advocate using the historical value for the US equity premium as the market risk premium. The CAPM as a model has been seriously challenged in the academic literature. In addition, recent research indicates that the true market risk premium might have been as low as half the historical US equity premium during the last two decades. If business finance courses have been teaching the use of the wrong model along with wrong inputs for 20 years, why has no one complained? We provide an answer to this puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the application of the generalized method of moments estimator in finance. Examination of the applications in the asset area pricing; Importance of linear approximation in the asset area pricing; Description of the nonlinear rational expectations econometric model.

Presents a study which examined whether the historical size of equity premiums or the premiums earned by investors in the United States (U.S.) is consistent with the size of equity premium in the 1990s. Use of the Gordon stock model valuation model to calculate equity premium; Factors which led to the decline of equity premiums; Methodology; Results and discussion.

SYNOPSIS: For options with a reload feature, the holder is automatically entitled to new options when the initial option is exercised. Under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 123, the grant date value of executive stock options excludes the value of a reload feature because the Financial Accounting Standards Board believes it is not feasible to value a reload feature at the grant date. We show how the Binomial Option Pricing Model can be used to value options and the reload feature at the grant date. Ignoring the reload can substantially understate the value of the option. Accordingly, the Financial Accounting Standards Board may wish to reconsider the accounting for reload features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Japan as in the United States, stocks that are more sensitive to changes in the monthly growth rate of labor income earn a higher return on average. Whereas the stock-index beta can only explain 2% of the cross-sectional variation in the average return on stock portfolios, the stock-index beta and the labor beta together explain 75% of the variation. We find that the labor beta drives out the size effect but not the book-to-market-price effect that is documented in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article uses the Henriksson-Merton parametric procedure and generated finite sample distributions for the parameters that measure the market timing skills of a hypothetical fund manager. Evaluating the performance of portfolio managers has received wide attention in the finance literature. The common practice is to divide performance into market timing ability and security selection ability. The former is the ability of a fund manager to produce a better return distribution by forecasting market-wide movements. The latter is the ability to produce more favorable return distributions based on superior information about individual stocks. Several methods have been proposed in the literature for the evaluation of the selection and the timing abilities of portfolio managers, using only the observed time series of realized returns on the managed portfolios. This paper focuses attention on the Henriksson-Merton method. People show that under certain circumstances correction for heteroscedasticity can significantly affect the power of the test.

The article assesses the market timing performance of managed portfolios to influence the manner in which investors allocate their wealth across various professionally managed portfolios and the compensation of managers. Assessments of managers' investment performance are likely to influence the manner in which investors allocate their wealth across various professionally managed portfolios and directly or indirectly to influence the compensation of managers. In addition, tests of abnormal performance can be viewed as evidence regarding the validity of the efficient market hypothesis. Hence accurate measurement of portfolio managers' investment performance is an important topic in finance. It is common practice to divide portfolio performance into two main components, security selection and market timing) A number of techniques are available to estimate the separate components of portfolio performance. This analysis of artificial timing is incomplete since it seemingly requires funds to sell call options or buy put options in order to explain the generally negative market-timing performance found in the empirical literature.