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Adaptively managing marine protected areas (MPAs) requires accurately assessing whether established MPAs are achieving their goals of protecting and conserving biomass, especially for harvested populations. Ecological MPA assessments commonly compare inside of the MPA to a reference point outside of and/or before implementation (i.e., calculating "response ratios"). Yet, MPAs are not simple ecological experiments; by design, protected populations interact with those outside, and population dynamic responses can be nonlinear. This complicates assessment interpretations. Here, we used a two‐patch population model to explore how MPA response ratios (outside–inside, before–after, and before–after‐control‐impact [BACI]) for fished populations behave under different conditions, like whether the population is receiving a sustainable larval supply or if it is declining despite protection from harvest. We then conducted a Bayesian evaluation of MPA effects on fish and invertebrate populations based on data collected from 82 published studies on 264 no‐take MPAs worldwide, using the results of an earlier global meta‐analysis as priors. We considered the effects of calculating different summary metrics on these results, drawing on the theoretical insights from our population model as a comparative framework. We demonstrate that not all response ratio comparison types provide the same information: For example, outside–inside and BACI comparisons can fail to detect population decline within MPAs, whereas before–after comparisons likely detect that pattern. Considering these limitations, we nonetheless found that MPAs globally are producing positive outcomes, with on average greater biomass, density, and organism size within their boundaries than reference sites. However, only a small portion of studies (18 of 82) provided the temporal data necessary to determine that protection, on average, has led to increased abundance of populations within MPAs over time. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the underlying system dynamics when assessing MPA effects. Assuming that large outside–inside or BACI response ratios always reflect large and net positive conservation effects may lead to misleading conclusions, we recommend that: (1) when assessing specific MPA effects, empirical findings be considered alongside theoretical knowledge relevant to that MPA system, and (2) management should respond to the local conditions and outcomes, rather than a blanket expectation for positive MPA effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forests are the world's most structurally complex ecosystems, providing key functions like biomass accumulation, which is linked to this complexity. Tropical forests are also exposed to chronic, non-severe winds, yet their effect on forest structural complexity is understudied. Here we examine drivers of forest structural complexity in Puerto Rico with a particular focus on chronic wind exposure. We used airborne light detection and ranging data collected in 2016 to quantify canopy height and rugosity (variation in height) in ~ 20,000, 0.28 ha forested sites stratified by forest age. We used random forest models to analyze variation in canopy height and rugosity as a function of chronic wind exposure, forest age, mean annual precipitation, elevation, slope (in degrees), soil type, soil available water storage, and exposure to a previous hurricane. Canopy height was driven by precipitation, forest age, and chronic wind exposure, decreasing by 2.12 m (16%) on average in wind-exposed forests across all forest ages. Canopy height increased by 4.0 m (41%) on average in forests aged 25–66 years, and by 4.0 m between sites with 1000 and 2000 mm y−1 precipitation. Canopy rugosity was driven by canopy height, precipitation, forest age, and elevation, increasing log-linearly with canopy height and precipitation, decreasing with elevation, and was highest in younger forests. Chronic wind exposure did not drive variation in canopy rugosity. Our results suggest that chronic wind exposure plays an integral role in limiting canopy height, potentially reducing aboveground carbon accumulation in older tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many tropical regions, which may cause shifts in plant community composition. Especially in diverse tropical communities, understanding how traits mediate demographic responses to drought can help provide insight into the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. To understand tropical tree responses to reduced soil moisture, we grew seedlings of eight species across an experimental soil moisture gradient at the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We quantified survival and growth over an 8‐month period and characterized demographic responses in terms of tolerance to low soil moisture—defined as survival and growth rates under low soil moisture conditions—and sensitivity to variation in soil moisture—defined as more pronounced changes in demographic rates across the observed range of soil moisture. We then compared demographic responses with interspecific variation in a suite of 11 (root, stem, and leaf) functional traits, measured on individuals that survived the experiment. Lower soil moisture was associated with reduced survival and growth but traits mediated species‐specific responses. Species with relatively conservative traits (e.g., high leaf mass per area), had higher survival at low soil moisture whereas species with more extensive root systems were more sensitive to soil moisture, in that they exhibited more pronounced changes in growth across the experimental soil moisture gradient. Our results suggest that increasing drought will favor species with more conservative traits that confer greater survival in low soil moisture conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Trait variation across individuals and species influences the resistance and resilience of ecosystems to disturbance, and the ability of individuals to capitalize on postdisturbance conditions. In trees, the anatomical structure of xylem directly affects plant function and, consequently, it is a valuable lens through which to understand resistance and resilience to disturbance.To determine how hurricanes affect wood anatomy of tropical trees, we characterized a set of anatomical traits in wood produced before and after a major hurricane for 65 individuals of 10 Puerto Rican tree species. We quantified variation at different scales (among and within species, and within individuals) and determined trait shifts between the pre‐ and posthurricane periods. We also assessed correlations between traits and growth rates.While the majority of anatomical trait variation occurred among species, we also observed substantial variation within species and individuals. Within individuals, we found significant shifts for some traits that generally reflected increased hydraulic conductivity in the posthurricane period. We found weak evidence for an association between individual xylem anatomical traits and diameter growth rates.Ultimately, within‐individual variation of xylem anatomical traits observed in our study could be related to posthurricane recovery and overall growth (e.g. canopy filling). Other factors, however, likely decouple a relationship between xylem anatomy and diameter growth. While adjustments of wood anatomy may enable individual trees to capitalize on favourable postdisturbance conditions, these may also influence their future responses or vulnerability to subsequent disturbances. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Projected increases in hurricane intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on many forest ecosystems. One key challenge is to disentangle the effects of wind damage from the myriad factors that influence forest structure and species distributions over large spatial scales. Here, we employ a novel machine learning framework with high‐resolution aerial photos, and LiDAR collected over 115 km2 of El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico to examine the effects of topographic exposure to two hurricanes, Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998), and several landscape‐scale environmental factors on the current forest height and abundance of a dominant, wind‐resistant species, the palm Prestoea acuminata var. montana. Model predictions show that the average density of the palm was 32% greater while the canopy height was 20% shorter in forests exposed to the two storms relative to unexposed areas. Our results demonstrate that hurricanes have lasting effects on forest canopy height and composition, suggesting the expected increase in hurricane severity with a warming climate will alter coastal forests in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collaboration between ecologists and learning scientists can give rise to powerful models for scientific outreach within ecology. This paper presents a process by which learning scientists and ecologists codesigned a science curriculum that invites students to join an ecological community of practice. In the Journey to El Yunque middle school science curriculum, students engage with simulation models generated from data gathered by Luquillo Long Term Ecological Research (LUQ LTER) scientists. Journey to El Yunque students can explore post‐hurricane population changes in yagrumo (Cecropia schreberiana), tabonuco (Dacryodes excelsa), coquís (Eleutherodactylus coquí), snails (Caracolus caracola), anoles (Anolis stratulus and A. gundlachi), veiled stinkhorn mushrooms (Dictyophora indusiata), and caterpillars (Historis odius). Ecology‐based revisions to Journey to El Yunque have included adding models of the effects of repeated hurricanes on limiting factors, based in part on findings from a canopy trimming experiment. Revisions based on classroom testing include simplifying student‐facing model controls to allow students to focus on the essential model components. The ongoing collaboration that keeps the Journey to El Yunque curriculum on the cutting edge of ecological and educational advances has been sustained for over two decades. We attribute the longevity of this work to (1) the long‐term nature of LUQ LTER, (2) a sustained interdisciplinary collaboration, and (3) our long‐term relationships with schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Understanding shifts in the demographic and functional composition of forests after major natural disturbances has become increasingly relevant given the accelerating rates of climate change and elevated frequency of natural disturbances. Although plant demographic strategies are often described across a slow–fast continuum, severe and frequent disturbance events influencing demographic processes may alter the demographic trade-offs and the functional composition of forests. We examined demographic trade-offs and the shifts in functional traits in a hurricane-disturbed forest using long-term data from the Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFPD) in Puerto Rico. Methods We analysed information on growth, survival, seed rain and seedling recruitment for 30 woody species in the LFDP. In addition, we compiled data on leaf, seed and wood functional traits that capture the main ecological strategies for plants. We used this information to identify the main axes of demographic variation for this forest community and evaluate shifts in community-weighted means for traits from 2000 to 2016. Key Results The previously identified growth–survival trade-off was not observed. Instead, we identified a fecundity–growth trade-off and an axis representing seedling-to-adult survival. Both axes formed dimensions independent of resprouting ability. Also, changes in tree species composition during the post-hurricane period reflected a directional shift from seedling and tree communities dominated by acquisitive towards conservative leaf economics traits and large seed mass. Wood specific gravity, however, did not show significant directional changes over time. Conclusions Our study demonstrates that tree demographic strategies coping with frequent storms and hurricane disturbances deviate from strategies typically observed in undisturbed forests, yet the shifts in functional composition still conform to the expected changes from acquisitive to conservative resource-uptake strategies expected over succession. In the face of increased rates of natural and anthropogenic disturbance in tropical regions, our results anticipate shifts in species demographic trade-offs and different functional dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe droughts have led to lower plant growth and high mortality in many ecosystems worldwide, including tropical forests. Drought vulnerability differs among species, but there is limited consensus on the nature and degree of this variation in tropical forest communities. Understanding species‐level vulnerability to drought requires examination of hydraulic traits since these reflect the different strategies species employ for surviving drought.Here, we examined hydraulic traits and growth reductions during a severe drought for 12 common woody species in a wet tropical forest community in Puerto Rico to ask: Q1. To what extent can hydraulic traits predict growth declines during drought? We expected that species with more hydraulically vulnerable xylem and narrower safety margins (SMP50) would grow less during drought. Q2. How does species successional association relate to the levels of vulnerability to drought and hydraulic strategies? We predicted that early‐ and mid‐successional species would exhibit more acquisitive strategies, making them more susceptible to drought than shade‐tolerant species. Q3. What are the different hydraulic strategies employed by species and are there trade‐offs between drought avoidance and drought tolerance? We anticipated that species with greater water storage capacity would have leaves that lose turgor at higher xylem water potential and be less resistant to embolism forming in their xylem (P50).We found a large range of variation in hydraulic traits across species; however, they did not closely capture the magnitude of growth declines during drought. Among larger trees (≥10 cm diameter at breast height—DBH), some tree species with high xylem embolism vulnerability (P50) and risk of hydraulic failure (SMP50) experienced substantial growth declines during drought, but this pattern was not consistent across species. We found a trade‐off among species between drought avoidance (capacitance) and drought tolerating (P50) in this tropical forest community. Hydraulic strategies did not align with successional associations. Instead, some of the more drought‐vulnerable species were shade‐tolerant dominants in the community, suggesting that a drying climate could lead to shifts in long‐term forest composition and function in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (for example, hurricanes, typhoons) are expected to intensify under a warming climate, with uncertain effects on tropical forests. These ecosystems contribute disproportionately to greenhouse gas (GHG; carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)) fluxes globally but there is high uncertainty in how these fluxes will respond to the projected increase in the frequency of severe tropical cyclones. To examine how these natural disturbance events may alter ecosystem processes in tropical forests, we studied the effects of Hurricane María (2017), a category 4 storm, on soil GHG fluxes from a forest in Puerto Rico. We also asked how environmental conditions, namely severity of tree canopy damage and topographic position, influenced spatial heterogeneity in post-hurricane soil GHG emissions. Seven months after Hurricane María, we observed an 18% increase in soil CO2 fluxes, a switch in CH4 fluxes from net consumption toward net production, and a threefold increase in N2O emissions relative to pre-hurricane fluxes. None of these fluxes were sensitive to topographic heterogeneity or the magnitude of tree canopy damage, in contrast to the marked soil GHG flux sensitivity to topography prior to the storm. Upscaling the increase in soil N2O emissions to the ecosystem level shows that greater emissions of soil N2O following hurricanes also led to high rates of nitrogen loss that, if sustained over a year, would be equivalent to 30% of estimated losses of inorganic nitrogen to runoff and groundwater. Additionally, the combined hurricane-induced increases in soil GHGs suggest a 25% increase in the contribution of soil GHG emissions from this forest to global warming, an effect that can persist for several months after the storm. Taken together, our results show that hurricane disturbance in coastal tropical forests can, at least temporarily, shift the radiative forcing of soils in these forests, exacerbating climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest and freshwater ecosystems are tightly linked and together provide important ecosystem services, but climate change is affecting their species composition, structure, and function. Research at nine US Long Term Ecological Research sites reveals complex interactions and cascading effects of climate change, some of which feed back into the climate system. Air temperature has increased at all sites, and those in the Northeast have become wetter, whereas sites in the Northwest and Alaska have become slightly drier. These changes have altered streamflow and affected ecosystem processes, including primary production, carbon storage, water and nutrient cycling, and community dynamics. At some sites, the direct effects of climate change are the dominant driver altering ecosystems, whereas at other sites indirect effects or disturbances and stressors unrelated to climate change are more important. Long-term studies are critical for understanding the impacts of climate change on forest and freshwater ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While tropical cyclone regimes are shifting with climate change, the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance‐induced change) and resilience (capacity to return to pre‐disturbance reference) of tropical forest litterfall to cyclones remain largely unexplored pantropically. Single‐site studies in Australia and Hawaii suggest that litterfall on low‐phosphorus (P) soils is more resistant and less resilient to cyclones. We conducted a meta‐analysis to investigate the pantropical importance of total soil P in mediating forest litterfall resistance and resilience to 22 tropical cyclones. We evaluated cyclone‐induced and post‐cyclone litterfall mass (g/m2/day), and P and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m2/day) and concentrations (mg/g), all indicators of ecosystem function and essential for nutrient cycling. Across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan, total litterfall mass flux increased from ~2.5 ± 0.3 to 22.5 ± 3 g/m2/day due to cyclones, with large variation among studies. Litterfall P and N fluxes post‐cyclone represented ~5% and 10% of the average annual fluxes, respectively. Post‐cyclone leaf litterfall N and P concentrations were 21.6 ± 1.2% and 58.6 ± 2.3% higher than pre‐cyclone means. Mixed‐effects models determined that soil P negatively moderated the pantropical litterfall resistance to cyclones, with a 100 mg P/kg increase in soil P corresponding to a 32% to 38% decrease in resistance. Based on 33% of the resistance case studies, total litterfall mass flux reached pre‐disturbance levels within one‐year post‐disturbance. A GAMM indicated that soil P, gale wind duration and time post‐cyclone jointly moderate the short‐term resilience of total litterfall, with the nature of the relationship between resilience and soil P contingent on time and wind duration. Across pantropical forests observed to date, our results indicate that litterfall resistance and resilience in the face of intensifying cyclones will be partially determined by total soil P. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Rapid changes in climate and disturbance regimes, including droughts and hurricanes, are likely to influence tropical forests, but our understanding of the compound effects of disturbances on forest ecosystems is extremely limited. Filling this knowledge gap is necessary to elucidate the future of these ecosystems under a changing climate.We examined the relationship between hurricane response (damage, mortality, and resilience) and four hydraulic traits of 13 dominant woody species in a wet tropical forest subject to periodic hurricanes.Species with high resistance to embolisms (low P50 values) and higher safety margins (SMP50) were more resistant to immediate hurricane mortality and breakage, whereas species with higher hurricane resilience (rapid post‐hurricane growth) had high capacitance and P50 values and low SMP50. During 26 yr of post‐hurricane recovery, we found a decrease in community‐weighted mean values for traits associated with greater drought resistance (leaf turgor loss point, P50, SMP50) and an increase in capacitance, which has been linked with lower drought resistance.Hurricane damage favors slow‐growing, drought‐tolerant species, whereas post‐hurricane high resource conditions favor acquisitive, fast‐growing but drought‐vulnerable species, increasing forest productivity at the expense of drought tolerance and leading to higher overall forest vulnerability to drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kelp habitat restoration is gaining traction as a management action to support recovery in areas affected by severe disturbances, thereby ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem services. Knowing when and where to restore is a major question. Using a single‐species population model, we consider how restoring inside marine protected areas (MPAs) might benefit coastal fish populations and fisheries. We found that MPAs can greatly enhance the population benefits of restoration but at a small cost to fishery yields. Generally, restoring inside MPAs had a better overall gains‐loss outcome, especially if the system is under high fishing pressure or severe habitat loss. However, restoring outside became preferable when predatory fish indirectly benefit kelp habitats. In either case, successful restoration actions may be difficult to detect in time‐series data due to complex transient dynamics. We provide context for setting management goals and social expectations for the ecosystem service implications of restoration in MPAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire is an important ecological disturbance that can reset ecosystems and initiate changes in plant community composition, ecosystem biogeochemistry, and primary productivity. As herbivores rely on primary producers for food, changes in vegetation may alter plant–herbivore interactions with important—but often unexplored—feedbacks to ecosystems. Here we examined the impact of post‐fire changes in plant community composition and structure on habitat suitability and rodent herbivore activity in response to a large, severe, and unprecedented fire in northern Alaskan tundra. In moist acidic tundra where the fire occurred, tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus) are the dominant herbivore and rely on the tussock forming sedge Eriophorum vaginatum for both food and nesting material. Tundra voles were 10 times more abundant at the burned site compared with nearby unburned tundra 7‐12 years after the fire. Fire increased the habitat suitability for voles by increasing plant productivity and biomass, food quality, and cover through both taller vegetation and increased microtopography. As a result of elevated vole abundance, Eriophorum mortality caused by vole herbivory was two orders of magnitude higher than natural mortality and approached the magnitude of the mortality rate resulting directly from the fire. These findings suggest that post‐fire increases in herbivore pressure on Eriophorum could, in turn, disrupt graminoid recovery and enhance shrub encroachment. Tundra state transitions from graminoid to shrub dominated are also evident following other disturbances and fertilization experiments, suggesting that as Arctic temperatures rise, greater available nutrients and increased frequencies of large‐scale disturbances may also alter plant–animal interactions with cascading impacts on plant communities and ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forest understory regeneration occurs rapidly after disturbance with compositional trajectories that depend on species availability and environmental conditions. To predict future tropical forest regeneration dynamics, we need a deeper understanding of how pulse disturbance events, like hurricanes, interact with environmental variability to affect understory demography and composition. We examined fern and sapling mortality, recruitment, and community composition in relation to solar radiation and soil moisture using 17 years of forest dynamics data (2003–2019) from the Canopy Trimming Experiment in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. Solar radiation increased 150% and soil moisture increased 40% following canopy trimming of experimental plots relative to control plots. All plots were disturbed in 2017 by Hurricanes Irma and Maria, so experimentally trimmed plots presented the opportunity to study the effects of multiple hurricanes, while control plots isolated the effects of a single natural hurricane. Recruitment rates maximized at 0.14 individuals/plot/month for ferns and 0.20 stems/plot/month for saplings. Recruitment and mortality were distributed more evenly over the 17 years of monitoring in experimentally trimmed plots than in control plots; however, following Hurricane Maria demographic rates substantially increased in control plots only. In experimentally trimmed plots, the largest community compositional shifts occurred as a result of the trimming events, and compositional changes were greatest for control plots after Hurricane Maria in 2017. Pioneer tree and fern species increased in abundance in response to both simulated and natural hurricanes. Following Hurricane Maria, two dominant pioneer species, Cyathea arborea and Cecropia schreberiana, recruited abundantly, but only in control plots. In trimmed plots, increased solar radiation and soil moisture shifted understory species composition steadily toward pioneer and secondary‐successional species, with soil moisture interacting strongly with canopy trimming. Thus, both solar radiation and soil moisture are environmental drivers affecting pioneer species recruitment following disturbance, which interact with canopy opening following hurricanes. Our results suggest that if hurricane disturbances increase in frequency and severity, as suggested by climate change predictions, the understory regeneration of late‐successional species, such as Manilkara bidentata and Sloanea berteroana, which prefer deeper shade and slightly drier soil microsites, may become imperiled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and disturbance make it difficult to project long‐term patterns of carbon sequestration in tropical forests, but large ecosystem experiments in these forests can inform predictions. The Canopy Trimming Experiment (CTE) manipulates two key components of hurricane disturbance, canopy openness and detritus deposition, in a tropical forest in Puerto Rico. We documented how the CTE and a real hurricane affected tree recruitment, biomass, and aboveground carbon storage over 15 years. In the CTE treatments, we trimmed branches, but we did not fell trees. We expected that during the 14‐year period after initial canopy trimming, regrowth of branches and stems and stem recruitment stimulated by increased light and trimmed debris would help restore biomass and carbon loss due to trimming. Compared to control plots, in the trimmed plots recruitment of palms and dicot trees increased markedly after trimming, and stem diameters of standing trees increased. Data showed that recruitment of small trees adds little to aboveground carbon, compared to the amount in large trees. Nevertheless, this response restored pretreatment biomass and carbon in the experimental period. In particular, the experimental additions of trimmed debris on the forest floor seemed to stimulate increase in aboveground carbon. Toward the end of the experimental period, Hurricane Maria (Category 4 hurricane) trimmed and felled some trees but reduced aboveground carbon less in the plots (including untrimmed plots) than experimental trimming had. Thus, it appears that the amount of regrowth recorded after experimental trimming could also restore aboveground carbon in the forest after a severe hurricane in the same time span. However, Hurricane Maria, unlike the trimming treatments, felled large trees, and it may be that with predicted, more frequent severe hurricanes, that the continued loss of large trees would over the long term decrease aboveground carbon stored in this Puerto Rican forest and likewise in other tropical forests affected by cyclonic storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable forestry is key to increase the adaptive capacity and resilience of regions exposed to extreme atmospheric events. Understanding social acceptability of forest management practices through a public dialogue that involves a diversity of stakeholders is important to define management policies and strategies. Here, we inquire about social acceptability of a sustainable forestry industry in Puerto Rico by convening a set of local experts from private, non-profit, and public sectors through focus group discussions. We presented three scenarios characterized by different elements of sustainability. Discussions included organizational and management considerations, potential products and markets, and the impact of extreme weather events. The results show that greater agreement was observed within groups than across groups. Most of the private sector participants valued mainly financial viability, while the public and the non-profit sectors gave more importance to social equity and environmental protection. This suggests that there is no single ideal model; thus, participation from all sectors in subsequent conversations would be worthwhile to seek a model that would work for most of the stakeholders. As a next step, we suggest expanding the stakeholder consultation effort to delineate a clear road map that can inform sustainable forestry planning at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correctly identifying the effects of a human impact on a system is a persistent challenge in ecology, driven partly by the variable nature of natural systems. This is particularly true in many marine fishery species, which frequently experience large temporal fluctuations in recruitment that produce interannual variations in populations. This variability complicates efforts to maintain stocks at management targets or detect the effects of rebuilding efforts. We address this challenge in the context of no‐take marine reserves by exploring how variable larval recruitment could interact with the timing of reserve establishment and choice of sampling design to affect population dynamics and the detectability of reserve effects. To predict population changes in the years following a no‐take reserve implementation, we first tested for periodicity in larval recruitment in an important U.S. Pacific coast recreational fishery species (kelp bass, Paralabrax clathratus) and then included that pattern in a population model. We also used this model to determine the detectability of population increases under alternative sampling approaches and minimum age sampled. Kelp bass larval recruitment in the Channel Islands, California, peaked every about six (major) and about two (minor) years. Our model showed that establishing a reserve during a peak or trough enhanced or delayed, respectively, the post‐reserve population increases. However, establishing a reserve during a recruitment peak could obscure a failing reserve, that is, a reserve that is unable to secure longer‐term metapopulation persistence. Recruitment peaks and troughs also interacted with sampling design to affect the detectability of reserve effects. Designs that compared inside‐outside were the most robust to variable recruitment, but failed to capture whether the reserve has improved metapopulation growth. Designs that included a time element (e.g., before‐after) are more suited to assessing reserve effectiveness, but were sensitive to recruitment variation and detectability can change year‐to‐year. Notably, detectability did not always increase monotonically with reserve age; the optimal time for detectability depended on the minimum age of organisms sampled and was greatest when the cohort of a major recruitment peak first appeared in the sampling. We encourage managers to account for variable recruitment when planning monitoring and assessment programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Methods in Ecology & Evolution is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Biotropica is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Subject to hurricane disturbance for millennia, natural ecosystems of Puerto Rico exhibit clear patterns of resistance (e.g., many tree species have little immediate storm‐related mortality) and resilience (e.g., leaf litterfall and stream chemistry returned to pre‐hurricane levels in as little as five years). Contemporaneous studies of near‐shore areas also suggested no long‐term impacts of hurricanes; however, anthropogenic effects (coral bleaching, sedimentation) dominate the long‐term condition of marine systems in Puerto Rico, many of which have slowly evolved into novel ecosystems. A key characteristic of novel marine ecosystems is their long‐term loss of benefits and resilience, coupled to declining biodiversity and loss of structural or functional redundancy, signaling increased vulnerability to subsequent hurricanes. Human systems are also strongly affected by cyclonic storms, as evidenced by the recent impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in the Caribbean. The lack of short‐term recovery from disturbance by coral reef ecosystems, coupled with an increasing recurrence of anthropogenic impacts, increasing hurricane frequency or severity, and sea‐level rise, may have irreversible long‐term socioeconomic consequences for coastal social–ecological systems and for community livelihoods. A comprehensive social–ecological understanding of hurricane effects in Puerto Rico is lacking in part because hurricane effects on human populations are not comprehensively followed. Although some studies suggest a path forward, finding effective methods to link measurements of storm intensity to the diverse components of tropical social–ecological systems remains a challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions: We asked: (a) whether the strength of conspecific and heterospecific neighborhood crowding effects on focal tree survival and growth vary with neighborhood radii; and (b) if the relative strength of the effect of neighborhood interactions on tree growth and survival varies with neighborhood scale. Location: Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot, Puerto Rico. Methods: We used tree survival and growth data and included information on species‐mean trait values related to several leaf traits, maximum height, seed mass and wood density. We incorporated a tree neighborhood modeling approach that uses an area around a focal tree with a specified radius, to describe the interactions between a focal tree and its neighbors. We constructed survival and growth models for each functional trait using a Bayesian approach, and varied the size of the radius from 5 m to 30 m, at 5‐m intervals. Results: The results suggested that the estimated effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbors on tree performance do not vary based on the size of the neighborhood (5–30 m), suggesting that the effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbors on the performance of a focal tree likely do not vary substantially beyond a neighborhood radius of 5 m in the Luquillo forest. In contrast, the estimated strength of the functional neighborhood (effect of neighbors based on their functional trait values) on tree performance was dependent on the neighborhood range. Our results also suggested that the effects of trait distances and trait hierarchies on tree survival and growth are acting simultaneously and at the same spatial scales. Conclusion: Findings from this study highlight the importance of spatial scale in community assembly processes, and specifically, call for increased attention when selecting the radius that defines the neighborhood around a focal tree as the selected neighborhood radius influences the community patterns discovered, and affects the conclusions about the drivers that control community assembly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Legumes provide an essential service to ecosystems by capturing nitrogen from the atmosphere and delivering it to the soil, where it may then be available to other plants. However, this facilitation by legumes has not been widely studied in global tropical forests. Demographic data from 11 large forest plots (16–60 ha) ranging from 5.25° S to 29.25° N latitude show that within forests, leguminous trees have a larger effect on neighbor diversity than non-legumes. Where soil nitrogen is high, most legume species have higher neighbor diversity than non-legumes. Where soil nitrogen is low, most legumes have lower neighbor diversity than non-legumes. No facilitation effect on neighbor basal area was observed in either high or low soil N conditions. The legume–soil nitrogen positive feedback that promotes tree diversity has both theoretical implications for understanding species coexistence in diverse forests, and practical implications for the utilization of legumes in forest restoration. Xu et al. examine the effect of leguminous trees on neighbor diversity across 11 plots in tropical forests around the world, and find that in high soil nitrogen conditions, most legume species have higher neighbor diversity than non-legumes, and vice versa where soil nitrogen is low. Their results have practical implications for the utilization of legumes in forest restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With projected increasing intensity of hurricanes and large uncertainty in the path of forest recovery from hurricanes, studies are needed to understand the fundamental response of forests to canopy opening and debris deposition: the response of the abiotic factors underneath the canopy. Through two manipulative experiments and instrumenting prior to Hurricane Maria (2017) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) of Puerto Rico, this study found a long recovery time of primary abiotic factors (beneath canopy light, throughfall, and temperature) influenced by the disturbance of canopy opening, as well as complex responses by the secondary abiotic factors (relative humidity, soil moisture, and leaf saturation) influenced by the disturbance of the primary factors. Recovery took 4–5 years for beneath canopy light, while throughfall recovery took 4–9 years and neither had recovered when Hurricane Maria passed 3 years after the second experiment. Air and soil temperature seemingly recovered quickly from each disturbance (<2.5 years in two experiments for ∼+1 ∘ C of change); however, temperature was the most important modulator of secondary factors, which followed the long-term patterns of the throughfall. While the soil remained wetter and relative humidity in the air stayed lower until recovery, leaves in the litter and canopy were wetter and drier, with evidence that leaves dry out faster in low rainfall and saturate faster in high rainfall after disturbance. Comparison of satellite and field data before and after the 2017 hurricanes showed the utility of satellites in expanding the data coverage, but the muted response of the satellite data suggests they measure dense forest as well as thin forest that is not as disturbed by hurricanes. Thus, quick recovery times recorded by satellites should not be assumed representative of all the forest. Data records spanning the multiple manipulative experiments followed by Hurricane Maria in the LEF provide evidence that intermediate hurricane frequency has the most extreme abiotic response (with evidence on almost all abiotic factors tested) versus infrequent or frequent hurricanes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Topography affects abiotic conditions which can influence the structure, function and dynamics of ecological communities. An increasing number of studies have demonstrated biological consequences of fine‐scale topographic heterogeneity but we have a limited understanding of how these effects depend on the climate context.We merged high‐resolution (1 m2) data on topography and canopy height derived from airborne lidar with ground‐based data from 15 forest plots in Puerto Rico distributed along a precipitation gradient spanning c. 800–3,500 mm/year. Ground‐based data included species composition, estimated above‐ground biomass (AGB), and two key functional traits (wood density and leaf mass per area, LMA) that reflect resource‐use strategies and a trade‐off between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate how the interaction between topography × climate is related to metrics of forest structure (i.e. canopy height and AGB), as well as taxonomic and functional alpha‐ and beta‐diversity.Fine‐scale topography (characterized with the topographic wetness index, TWI) significantly affected forest structure and the strength (and in some cases direction) of these effects varied across the precipitation gradient. In all plots, canopy height increased with topographic wetness but the effect was much stronger in dry compared to wet forest plots. In dry forest plots, topographically wetter microsites also had higher levels of AGB but in wet forest plots, topographically drier microsites had higher AGB.Fine‐scale topography influenced functional composition but had only weak or non‐significant effects on taxonomic and functional alpha‐ and beta‐diversity. For instance, community‐weighted wood density followed a similar pattern to AGB across plots. We also found a marginally significant association between variation of wood density and topographic heterogeneity that depended on climate context.Synthesis. The effects of fine‐scale topographic heterogeneity on tropical forest structure and composition depend on the climate context. Our study demonstrates how a stronger integration of topographic heterogeneity across precipitation gradients could improve estimates of forest structure and biomass, and may provide insight to the ways that topography might mediate species responses to drought and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest community composition is the outcome of multiple forces, including those that increase taxonomic and functional divergence and those that promote convergence in traits. The mechanisms underlying these forces may not operate homogenously within communities; individuals of different species are never perfectly mixed, and thus, species tend to be surrounded and interact with different subsets of species. In fact, taxonomic and functional composition of neighborhoods of different focal species can be highly variable. Here, we examine whether mechanisms driving species-level neighborhoods relate to intrinsic characteristics of focal species such as differences in life-history and resource-uptake strategies and in turn relate to species survival. We focus on two key characteristics: (1) seed mass, which defines a dominant axis of life-history strategies related to stress tolerance, and (2) understory light preferences that sort species from light-demanding pioneers to shade-tolerant. We monitored seedling communities over 10 yr in Puerto Rico and calculated neighborhood trait dispersion in species-level neighborhoods using seven functional traits. We examined whether species-level characteristics, seed mass and preferred light conditions, influence patterns of functional dispersion in seedling neighborhoods using linear models. Then, we examined how species-level functional neighborhoods impact seedling survival. We found that small- and large-seeded species diverge in the type of functional neighborhoods they associate with. Large-seeded species associate with neighbors that are more similar than expected in leaf economic traits, but more different than expected in seed mass and leaf area traits, while the opposite was found for small-seeded species. This variation in species functional neighborhood was important in determining seedling survival. In sum, our results suggest that divergent and convergent forces do not operate homogenously over entire communities. Their relative role changes in space, and on a species-by-species basis, probably with a deterministic foundation linked to traits such as seed mass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical environmental conditions, potentially altering ecosystem function as El Niño events interact with longer‐term climate change. Anomalously warm equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures affect rainfall and temperature throughout the tropics and coincide with altered leaf flush phenology and increased fruit production in wet tropical forests; however, the understanding of mechanisms underlying this pattern is limited. There is evidence that increases in tropical tree reproduction anticipate El Niño onset, motivating the continued search for a global driver of tropical angiosperm reproduction. We present the solar‐wind energy flux hypothesis: that physical energy influx to the Earth's upper atmosphere and magnetosphere, generated by a positive anomaly in the solar wind preceding El Niño development, cues tropical trees to increase resource allocation to reproduction. Methods: We test this hypothesis using 19 years of data from Luquillo, Puerto Rico, correlating them with measures of solar‐wind energy. Results: From 1994 to 2013, the solar‐wind energy flux into Earth's magnetosphere (Ein) was more strongly correlated with the number of species fruiting and flowering than the Niño 3.4 climate index, despite Niño 3.4 being previously identified as a driver of interannual increases in reproduction. Conclusions: Changes in the global magnetosphere and thermosphere conditions from increased solar‐wind energy affect global atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns, principally by weakening the Walker circulation. We discuss the idea that these changes cue interannual increases in tropical tree reproduction and act through an unidentified mechanism that anticipates and synchronizes the reproductive output of the tropical trees with El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With projected increasing intensity of hurricanes and large uncertainty in the path of forest recovery from hurricanes, studies are needed to understand the fundamental response of forests to canopy opening and debris deposition: the response of the abiotic factors underneath the canopy. Through manipulative experiments and instrumenting hurricane María in the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico, this study found a long recovery time of the primary abiotic factors (light, throughfall, and temperature) influenced by the disturbance of canopy opening, and complex responses by the secondary abiotic factors (humidity, soil moisture, and leaf saturation) influenced by the disturbance of the primary factors. Recovery took up to 9 years for beneath canopy light, while throughfall recovery took 6 years. Air and soil temperature seemingly recovered fairly quickly from each disturbance, however temperature was the most important modulator of secondary factors, which followed the long-term patterns of the throughfall. While the soil remained wetter and humidity stayed lower until recovery, leaves in the litter and canopy were wetter and drier, with evidence that leaves dry out faster in low rainfall and saturate faster in high rainfall after disturbance. Comparison of satellite and field data before and after the 2017 hurricane showed the utility of satellites in expanding the data coverage, but the muted response of the satellite data suggest they measure dense forest as well as thin forest that is not as disturbed by hurricanes. Thus, quick recovery times recorded by satellites should not be assumed representative of all of the forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigations of forest community structure and dynamics have been facilitated by the use of neighbourhood models that examine the interactions between a focal tree and its neighbours using a fixed radius. However, different studies have chosen different radii without clear reasons, hampering the understanding of mechanisms structuring tree communities.Using functional trait and tree demography data from the Luquillo subtropical forest in Puerto Rico, we compared fixed‐neighbourhood models with a canopy overlap model, in which tree crown overlap is used as an indicator of neighbourhood crowding. Analyses that combine functional trait and demographic data provide a mechanistic understanding of observed patterns of community structure and dynamics as they provide insights into the linkages between phenotypes and the environment.Overall, canopy overlap models had better support when compared to neighbourhood models using a fixed radius, suggesting that the fixed radius approach does not capture the full extent of competitive interactions among trees. Moreover, the effects of functional neighbourhood on tree survival and growth differ depending on the type of approach used and lead to different conclusions with respect to the drivers of tree community dynamics.Synthesis. In summary, our findings highlight the utility of neighbourhood models based on tree crown overlap, and suggest that applying this same approach to different plots and forests will facilitate comparisons across systems and improve our understanding of the mechanisms that drive the structure and dynamics of tree communities. Our findings highlight the utility of neighbourhood models based on tree crown overlap, and suggest that applying this same approach to different plots and forests will facilitate comparisons across systems and improve our understanding of the mechanisms that drive the structure and dynamics of tree communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linking drought to the timing of physiological processes governing tree growth remains one limitation in forecasting climate change effects on tropical trees. Using dendrometers, we measured fine‐scale growth for 96 trees of 25 species from 2013 to 2016 in an everwet forest in Puerto Rico. Rainfall over this time span varied, including an unusual, severe El Niño drought in 2015. We assessed how growing season onset, median day, conclusion, and length varied with absolute growth rate and tree size over time. Stem growth was seasonal, beginning in February, peaking in July, and ending in November. Species growth rates varied between 0 and 8 mm/year and correlated weakly with specific leaf area, leaf phosphorus, and leaf nitrogen, and to a lesser degree with wood specific gravity and plant height. Drought and tree growth were decoupled, and drought lengthened and increased variation in growing season length. During the 2015 drought, many trees terminated growth early but did not necessarily grow less. In the year following drought, trees grew more over a shorter growing season, with many smaller trees showing a post‐drought increase in growth. We attribute the increased growth of smaller trees to release from light limitation as the canopy thinned because of the drought, and less inferred hydraulic stress than larger trees during drought. Soil type accounted for interannual and interspecific differences, with the finest Zarzal clays reducing tree growth. We conclude that drought affects the phenological timing of tree growth and favors the post‐drought growth of smaller, sub‐canopy trees in this everwet forest. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbance plays a key role in shaping forest composition and diversity. We used a community phylogeny and long-term forest dynamics data to investigate biotic and abiotic factors shaping tropical forest regeneration following both human and natural disturbance. Specifically, we examined shifts in seedling phylogenetic and functional (i.e., seed mass) community structure over a decade following a major hurricane in a human-impacted forest in Puerto Rico. Phylogenetic relatedness of the seedling community decreased in the first five years post-hurricane and then increased, largely driven by changes in the abundance of a common palm species. Functional structure (based on seed mass) became increasingly clustered through time, due to canopy closure causing small-seeded, light-demanding species to decline in abundance. Seedling neighbor density and phylogenetic relatedness negatively affected seedling survival, which likely acted to reduce phylogenetic relatedness within seedling plots. Across the study site, areas impacted in the past by high-intensity land use had lower or similar phylogenetic relatedness of seedling communities than low-intensity past land use areas, reflecting interactive effects of human and natural disturbance. Our study demonstrates how phylogenetic and functional information offer insights into the role of biotic and abiotic factors structuring forest recovery following disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions among neighbors influence the structure of communities of sessile organisms. Closely related species tend to share habitat and resource requirements and to interact with the same mutualists and natural enemies so that the strength of interspecific interactions tends to decrease with evolutionary divergence time. Nevertheless, the degree to which such phylogenetically related ecological interactions structure plant communities remains unclear. Using data from five large mapped forest plots combined with a DNA barcode mega‐phylogeny, we employed an individual‐based approach to assess the collective effects of focal tree size on neighborhood phylogenetic relatedness. Abundance‐weighted average divergence time for all neighbors (ADT_all) and for heterospecific neighbors only (ADT_hetero) were calculated for each individual of canopy tree species. Within local neighborhoods, we found phylogenetic composition changed with focal tree size. Specifically, significant increases in ADT_all with focal tree size were evident at all sites. In contrast, there was no significant change in ADT_hetero with tree size in four of the five sites for both sapling‐sized and all neighbors, even at the smallest neighbourhood scale (0–5 m), suggesting a limited role for phylogeny‐dependent interactions. However, there were inverse relationships between focal tree size and the proportion of heterospecific neighbors belonging to closely related species at some sites, providing evidence for negative phylogenetic density dependence. Overall, our results indicate that negative interaction with conspecifics had a much greater impact on neighborhood assemblages than interactions among closely related species and could contribute to community structure and diversity maintenance in different forest communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap‐based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane‐affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long‐term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de‐trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long‐term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community‐wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long‐term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long‐term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small-scale forest enterprises have been recognized as a potential instrument for sustainable development. In particular, the production of handicrafts is a major form of cultural expression and a significant source of income in several developing countries. In this study, we characterize the local handicraft sector in Puerto Rico to identify essential elements for fostering small-scale forest enterprises. Artisans and sawyers were home-based microenterprises that harvested, processed, and traded a wide variety of local forest products, including 125 types of wood and several non-wood forest products. Nonetheless, severe competition from cheaper imported crafts, low demand, and high product variability hamper the development of the local handicraft sector. Despite globalization, sawyers and artisans in Puerto Rico, as part of the U.S., have access to the largest markets of tropical woods and home accessories in the world. But, to participate in these markets, they must increase competitiveness. Lack of institutional effectiveness is a major constraint for the success of the artisan development program in Puerto Rico. Therefore, cooperation and linkages between all support organizations, including government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and associations of artisans, need to be enhanced to provide effective technical assistance, marketing, and financial services to artisans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Predicting the fate of tropical forests under a changing climate requires understanding species responses to climatic variability and extremes. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to climatic stress given low stored resources and undeveloped roots; they also portend the potential effects of climate change on future forest composition. Here we use data for ca. 50,000 tropical seedlings representing 25 woody species to assess (i) the effects of interannual variation in rainfall and solar radiation between 2007 and 2016 on seedling survival over 9 years in a subtropical forest; and (ii) how spatial heterogeneity in three environmental factors—soil moisture, understory light, and conspecific neighborhood density—modulate these responses. Community‐wide seedling survival was not sensitive to interannual rainfall variability but interspecific variation in these responses was large, overwhelming the average community response. In contrast, community‐wide responses to solar radiation were predominantly positive. Spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and conspecific density were the predominant and most consistent drivers of seedling survival, with the majority of species exhibiting greater survival at low conspecific densities and positive or nonlinear responses to soil moisture. This environmental heterogeneity modulated impacts of rainfall and solar radiation. Negative conspecific effects were amplified during rainy years and at dry sites, whereas the positive effects of radiation on survival were more pronounced for seedlings existing at high understory light levels. These results demonstrate that environmental heterogeneity is not only the main driver of seedling survival in this forest but also plays a central role in buffering or exacerbating impacts of climate fluctuations on forest regeneration. Since seedlings represent a key bottleneck in the demographic cycle of trees, efforts to predict the long‐term effects of a changing climate on tropical forests must take into account this environmental heterogeneity and how its effects on regeneration dynamics play out in long‐term stand dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical forests of Borneo and Amazonia may each contain more tree species diversity in half a square kilometre than do all the temperate forests of Europe, North America, and Asia combined. Biologists have long been fascinated by this disparity, using it to investigate potential drivers of biodiversity. Latitudinal variation in many of these drivers is expected to create geographic differences in ecological and evolutionary processes, and evidence increasingly shows that tropical ecosystems have higher rates of diversification, clade origination, and clade dispersal. However, there is currently no evidence to link gradients in ecological processes within communities at a local scale directly to the geographic gradient in biodiversity. Here, we show geographic variation in the storage effect, an ecological mechanism that reduces the potential for competitive exclusion more strongly in the tropics than it does in temperate and boreal zones, decreasing the ratio of interspecific-to-intraspecific competition by 0.25% for each degree of latitude that an ecosystem is located closer to the Equator. Additionally, we find evidence that latitudinal variation in climate underpins these differences; longer growing seasons in the tropics reduce constraints on the seasonal timing of reproduction, permitting lower recruitment synchrony between species and thereby enhancing niche partitioning through the storage effect. Our results demonstrate that the strength of the storage effect, and therefore its impact on diversity within communities, varies latitudinally in association with climate. This finding highlights the importance of biotic interactions in shaping geographic diversity patterns, and emphasizes the need to understand the mechanisms underpinning ecological processes in greater detail than has previously been appreciated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Determining the drivers of species rarity is fundamental for understanding and conserving biodiversity. Rarity of a given species within its community may arise due to exclusion by other ecologically similar species. Conversely, rare species may occupy habitats that are rare in the landscape or they may be ill-suited to all available habitats. The first mechanism would lead to common and rare species occupying similar ecological space defined by functional traits. The second mechanism would result in common and rare species occupying dissimilar ecological space and spatial aggregation of rare species, either because they are specialists in rare habitats or because rare species tend to be dispersal limited. Here, we quantified the contribution of locally rare species to community functional richness and the spatial aggregation of species across tree communities world-wide to address these hypotheses. Location Asia and the Americas. Time period 2002 to 2012 (period that considers the censuses for the plots used). Major taxa studied Angiosperm and Gymnosperm trees. Methods We compiled a dataset of functional traits from all the species present in eight tree plots around the world to evaluate the contribution of locally rare species to tree community functional richness using multi- and univariate approaches. We also quantified the spatial aggregation of individuals within species at several spatial scales as it relates to abundance. Results Locally rare tree species in temperate and tropical forests tended to be functionally unique and are consistently spatially clustered. Furthermore, there is no evidence that this pattern is driven by pioneer species being locally rare. Main conclusions This evidence shows that locally rare tree species disproportionately contribute to community functional richness, and we can therefore reject the hypothesis that locally rare species are suppressed by ecologically similar, but numerically dominant, species. Rather, locally rare species are likely to be specialists on spatially rare habitats or they may be ill-suited to the locally available environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied lianas in a subtropical wet forest in Puerto Rico to understand how hurricane impacts and past human land-uses interact to affect liana dynamics over a 14-year period. We compared a high-intensity land-use area, where the forest that had been cleared, and used for subsistence agriculture before being abandoned in 1934 then regrew to a low-intensity land-use area, in which there had been only some selective experimental logging by the USDA Forest Service in the 1940s. Prior to our study, both areas were strongly affected by Hurricane Hugo in 1989, and again damaged to a lesser degree by Hurricane Georges in 1998, increasing canopy openness and subsequently increasing tree stem densities. Between 2001 and 2015, changes in the light environment and the recovery of forest structure resulted in roughly a 50% reduction in tree stem densities in the high-intensity land-use area, as recruited saplings naturally thinned. In this area, liana abundance increased by 103%, liana biomass tripled, and occupancy of trees by lianas grew by nearly 50%. In the low-intensity land-use area, juvenile stem densities were stable, and resultantly liana abundance only increased by 33%, liana biomass rose 39%, and the occupancy of trees was constant. Liana flower and fruit production increased over the 14-year interval, and these increases were much greater in the high-intensity land-use quadrats. Results of this study do show how rapid forest tree successional dynamics coincide with liana increases, but the confounding of hurricane effects of disturbance at our site, prevent us from asserting that the increases in liana density and biomass can be attributed to the same causes as those in forests elsewhere in the Neotropics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Environmental heterogeneity influences the species composition of tropical forests, with implications for patterns of diversity and species coexistence in these hyperdiverse communities. Many studies have examined how variability in soil nutrients and topography influence plant community composition, with differing results. None have quantified the relative contribution of environmental heterogeneity versus endogenous processes to variability in forest community composition over time and with respect to successional recovery., Using five consecutive trees censuses of a forest plot in Puerto Rico, conducted between 1990 and 2011, we evaluated the influence of edaphic and topographic variability on community composition. The plot has a well-documented land-use history and is subject to periodic hurricane disturbance. Using multiple canonical distance-based redundancy analyses, we studied how spatial heterogeneity in soil nutrients and topography structure community composition over time, as the forest recovers from long-term land-use effects and two major hurricanes in 1989 and 1998., For the entire plot, spatial variables (principle coordinates of neighbourhood matrices), representing the autocorrelation of tree species in the community, explained the majority (49-57%) of the variability in tree community composition. The explanatory power of spatial variables decreased over time, as forest structure recovered from hurricane damage and the stems in the understorey died. Soil nutrients and topography, collectively, explained a moderate portion (33-37%) of the species compositional variation and were slightly more robust in explaining compositional differences in areas of more intense past land use., Areas of less-intense past land use showed weaker community-environmental trends overall, illustrating a tendency for stronger resource competition (i.e. light, water and soil nutrients) between species in these areas. This illustrates how environmental-plant community interactions are strengthened by the lasting effects of human land-use legacies, which persist for decades to centuries., Synthesis. Our findings confirm past land use to be a fundamental driver of the structure and composition of secondary forests through its impacts on the tree community, the abiotic terrestrial environment and their interaction. Since the extent of second-growth tropical forests continues to increase, our findings highlight the importance of understanding the processes that determine the rate and nature of their succession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our understanding of the long-lasting effects of human land use on soil fungal communities in tropical forests is limited. Yet, over 70% of all remaining tropical forests are growing in former agricultural or logged areas. We investigated the relationship among land use history, biotic and abiotic factors, and soil fungal community composition and diversity in a second-growth tropical forest in Puerto Rico. We coupled high-throughput DNA sequencing with tree community and environmental data to determine whether land use history had an effect on soil fungal community descriptors. We also investigated the biotic and abiotic factors that underlie such differences and asked whether the relative importance of biotic (tree diversity, basal tree area, and litterfall biomass) and abiotic (soil type, pH, iron, and total carbon, water flow, and canopy openness) factors in structuring soil fungal communities differed according to land use history. We demonstrated long-lasting effects of land use history on soil fungal communities. At our research site, most of the explained variation in soil fungal composition ( R2 = 18.6%), richness ( R2 = 11.4%), and evenness ( R2 = 10%) was associated with edaphic factors. Areas previously subject to both logging and farming had a soil fungal community with lower beta diversity and greater evenness of fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) than areas subject to light logging. Yet, fungal richness was similar between the two areas of historical land use. Together, these results suggest that fungal communities in disturbed areas are more homogeneous and diverse than in areas subject to light logging. Edaphic factors were the most strongly correlated with soil fungal composition, especially in areas subject to light logging, where soils are more heterogenous. High functional tree diversity in areas subject to both logging and farming led to stronger correlations between biotic factors and fungal composition than in areas subject to light logging. In contrast, fungal richness and evenness were more strongly correlated with biotic factors in areas of light logging, suggesting that these metrics might reflect long-term associations in old-growth forests. The large amount of unexplained variance in fungal composition suggests that these communities are structured by both stochastic and niche assemblage processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbance shapes plant communities over a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales. How natural and anthropogenic disturbance interact to shape ecological communities is highly variable and begs a greater understanding. We used five censuses spanning the years 1990-2011 from the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFDP) in northeast Puerto Rico to investigate the interplay of human land-use legacies dating to the early 20th century and two recent hurricanes (Hugo, 1989 and Georges, 1998). The LFDP is a landscape mosaic comprised of an area of mature subtropical wet forest and three areas of secondary forest with differing past land-use intensities. We examined the degree to which hurricane disturbance--effect and subsequent community recovery varied across past land-use classes. We expected areas with greater intensity of human land use to be more affected by hurricane disturbance therefore exhibiting greater initial damage and longer successional recovery times. Structurally, areas of secondary forest contained smaller trees than old-growth areas; hurricanes caused widespread recruitment of shrubs and saplings that thinned with time since the first hurricane. Species richness of the plot declined over time, mostly due to the loss of rare species, but also due to the loss of some heliophilic, pioneer species that became abundant after the first hurricane. Species composition differed strongly between areas of secondary and mature forest, and these differences were largely constant over time, except for an increase in compositional differences following the second hurricane. An indicator species analysis attributed this pattern to the longer persistence of pioneer species in areas of greater past land-use intensity, likely due to the more open canopy in secondary forest. When secondary forest areas of differing past land-use intensity were considered separately, few species of low community rank were found as indicators. When these areas were combined, more and higher-ranked species emerged as indicators, creating ecologically meaningful indicator species combinations that better captured the broad-scale plant community response to past land use. Our findings support the idea that effects of past land use can persist for decades to centuries following land-use abandonment, illustrating the importance of land-use legacies in shaping regenerating tropical secondary forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of spatial patterns in species-environment relationships can provide new insights into the niche requirements and potential co-occurrence of species, but species abundance and environmental data are routinely collected at different spatial scales. Here, we investigate the use of codispersion analysis to measure and assess the scale, directionality and significance of complex relationships between plants and their environment in large forest plots., We applied codispersion analysis to both simulated and field data on spatially located tree species basal area and environmental variables. The significance of the observed bivariate spatial associations between the basal area of key species and underlying environmental variables was tested using three null models., Codispersion analysis reliably detected directionality (anisotropy) in bivariate species-environment relationships and identified relevant scales of effects. Null model-based significance tests applied to codispersion analyses of forest plot data enabled us to infer the extent to which environmental conditions, tree sizes and/or tree spatial positions underpinned the observed basal area-environment relationships, or whether relationships were a result of other unmeasured factors., Codispersion analysis, combined with appropriate null models, can be used to infer hypothesized ecological processes from spatial patterns, allowing us to start disentangling the possible drivers of plant species-environment relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine reserve networks must ensure the representation of important conservation features, and also guarantee the persistence of key populations. For many species, designing reserve networks is complicated by the absence or limited availability of spatial and life-history data. This is particularly true for data on larval dispersal, which has only recently become available. However, systematic conservation planning methods currently incorporate demographic processes through unsatisfactory surrogates. There are therefore two key challenges to designing marine reserve networks that achieve feature representation and demographic persistence constraints. First, constructing a method that efficiently incorporates persistence as well as complementary feature representation. Second, incorporating persistence using a mechanistic description of population viability, rather than a proxy such as size or distance. Here we construct a novel systematic conservation planning method that addresses both challenges, and parameterise it to design a hypothetical marine reserve network for fringing coral reefs in the Keppel Islands, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. For this application, we describe how demographic persistence goals can be constructed for an important reef fish species in the region, the bar-cheeked trout (Plectropomus maculatus). We compare reserve networks that are optimally designed for either feature representation or demographic persistence, with a reserve network that achieves both goals simultaneously. As well as being practically applicable, our analyses also provide general insights into marine reserve planning for both representation and demographic persistence. First, persistence constraints for dispersive organisms are likely to be much harder to achieve than representation targets, due to their greater complexity. Second, persistence and representation constraints pull the reserve network design process in divergent directions, making it difficult to efficiently achieve both constraints. Although our method can be readily applied to the data-rich Keppel Islands case study, we finally consider the factors that limit the method’s utility in information-poor contexts common in marine conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine reserves are often established in areas that support fisheries. Larval export from reserves is argued to help compensate for the loss of fishable habitat; however, previous modeling studies have focused on long-term equilibrium outcomes. We examined the transient consequences of reserve establishment for fished metapopulations, considering both a well-mixed larval pool and a spatially explicit model based on a coral trout ( Plectropomus spp.) metapopulation. When fishing pressure was reallocated relative to the area protected, yields decreased initially, then recovered, and ultimately exceeded pre-reserve levels. However, recovery time was on the order of several years to decades. If fishing pressure intensified to maintain pre-reserve yields, reserves were sometimes unable to support the increased mortality and the metapopulation collapsed. This was more likely when reserves were small, or located peripherally within the metapopulation. Overall, reserves can achieve positive conservation and fishery benefits, but fisheries management complementary to reserve implementation is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Question Understanding how the relative importance of different community assembly processes changes during secondary succession of diverse systems remains elusive. Functional and phylogenetic approaches that place species along continuous axes of niche differentiation and evolutionary relatedness, however, are deepening our understanding of the mechanisms that drive successional dynamics. We ask whether successional shifts in the functional and phylogenetic composition of post-agricultural tropical forests provide evidence for niche partitioning or competitive dominance hierarchies as drivers of successional change. Location Subtropical wet forests, Puerto Rico. Methods We combined data on four functional traits [leaf dry mass per area ( LMA), wood density ( WD), maximum height ( Hmax), seed dry mass] and a well-resolved molecular phylogeny to characterize taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic composition of sapling and adult tree communities along a regionally replicated chronosequence. We used a null model approach to assess how functional and phylogenetic diversity change with forest age. Results Corresponding increases of community-weighted mean LMA, Hmax and seed mass with forest age reflected a shift in dominance of species with acquisitive resource-use strategies and small seeds towards species with more conservative resource use and larger seeds. A negative relationship between forest age and local diversity of Hmax and seed mass suggested increased importance of competitive hierarchies for light capture and shade-tolerant regeneration in older forests. In contrast, the colonization of palms in older forest plots led to a positive relationship between forest age and local phylogenetic diversity, suggesting functional convergence of distantly related lineages on traits that confer competitive dominance under low resource conditions. Conclusions We linked both functional and phylogenetic dimensions of community diversity with successional trajectories of post-agricultural tropical forests. Contrasting patterns of these dimensions of diversity shed light on the underlying community assembly processes. We argue that integrating traits and phylogeny with specific hypotheses about physiological and historical mechanisms is essential for advancing our understanding of the drivers of community change during succession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]