1. Development and validation of a practical score to predict 3-year distant metastatic free survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma incorporating the number of lymph node regions.
- Author
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Jaruthien, Thitiporn, Lertbutsayanukul, Chawalit, Jittapiromsak, Nutchawan, Sriyook, Aniwat, Kulalert, Prapasri, Tantiyavarong, Pichaya, Kitpanit, Sarin, Kannarunimit, Danita, Chakkabat, Chakkapong, and Prayongrat, Anussara
- Subjects
NASOPHARYNX cancer ,PROGNOSTIC models ,LYMPH nodes ,SURVIVAL analysis (Biometry) ,METASTASIS - Abstract
Introduction: The improvement in diagnosis and treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has shifted the pattern of failure toward distant metastasis. This study aimed to develop a simplified prognostic scoring model to predict distant metastatic free survival (DMFS) for NPC patients. Materials and methods: Patients with non-metastatic NPC were identified from a retrospective cohort diagnosed between 2010 and 2018. Flexible parametric survival analysis was used to identify potential predictors for DMFS and establish a scoring model. The prognostic accuracy between the 8
th AJCC system and the scoring model was compared using Harrell's C-index. Results: Of the total 393 patients, the median follow-up time was 85 months. The 3-year DMFS rate was 83.3%. Gender, T-stage, pre-EBV (cut-off 2300 copies/ml), and the number of metastatic lymph node regions were identified as independent risk factors for distant metastasis and were included in the final scoring model. Our established model achieved a high C-index in predicting DMFS (0.79) and was well-calibrated. The score divided patients into two categories: low-risk (score 0–4) and high-risk (score 5–7), corresponding with the predicted 3-year DMFS of 96% and 64.5%, respectively. Conclusions: A feasible and applicative prognostic score was established and validated to discriminate NPC patients into low- and high-risk groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2024
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