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Climate change is expected to alter both forest stand- and landscape-level dynamics through a change in environmental characteristics. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests throughout the world, there is need to further refine such analyses. In this paper, we contribute to this literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS–LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (computable general equilibrium) model to better account for the economic impact associated with climate-induced impacts on forest stand- and landscape-level structure and composition dynamics. Applying this framework to a case-study region of New Brunswick, Canada, we estimate that climate change will reduce softwood supply by 16%–73% and impact hardwood supply in the range of −2% to +4% by 2150. The change in wood supply is estimated to reduce the value of the softwood and hardwood forestry and logging sector output by up to 51% and 17%, respectively, by 2150. These sector-level impacts may lead to a 0.08%–0.88% reduction in annual gross domestic product by 2150. The methodological advances established in this study can be used to better inform future forest management and economic plans that aim to lessen both the ecological and economic impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic models suggest that greenhouse gas emission reductions are warranted on a global scale. However, more analysis is needed at a regional level to inform local governments about the economics of alternative carbon policies. To this end, we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for the case-study province of New Brunswick, Canada, and consider economic impacts and costs of two carbon policy scenarios. The first, called the Federal 'backstop', consists of a carbon tax on small emitters and an output-based pricing system (OBPS) on large emitters. The second consists of a common carbon tax across all emitters. We also consider different carbon tax revenue recycling options under each scenario. Results show that when a carbon tax is applied to all emitters starting at $20/tonne in 2019 and increasing to $170/tonne in 2030, cumulative present value GDP would decline in the range of 0.60%–0.63% (depending on revenue recycling options), and emissions will decline by more than 32%. Under the Federal backstop scenario, GDP reduction is only 0.24–0.26%, and emissions reduction is only 13%. In all scenarios, the costs range between $21 and 50/tonne on average, and are generally lower than the global social cost of carbon estimated in other research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

British Columbia (BC) introduced North America's first carbon tax in 2008. An analysis of the impact of the BC carbon tax is of interest to various stakeholders in the jurisdiction where the tax was implemented. Other Canadian provinces and other countries contemplating a carbon tax policy are looking for insights on how to optimize potential positive and negative consequences. Given that government agri-environmental policies often emphasize farm-level support and environmental performance, there is interest in understanding the farm-level impacts of the carbon tax. The effect of the BC carbon tax on farm income and related production cost variables is investigated. Panel data from 2000 to 2015 are analyzed using both tabular and econometric approaches of the difference-in-difference method. The results indicate that the carbon tax is associated with a decline in net farm income-to-receipts ratios ranging between 8 and 12 cents per dollar of farm receipts. The analysis for costs-to-receipts ratios suggest that the carbon tax is directly related to higher commercial feed costs, farm labour costs, interest costs, and depreciation costs. Results of the regression analysis indicate that all the carbon tax effects are highly statistically significant. These findings can inform policy discussions about carbon tax effects on farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reduce the impacts of intensive potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) production systems on the environment, beneficial management practices (BMPs) (e.g., crop rotation and conservation tillage) have been promoted in Atlantic Canada. However, quantitative information on the impacts of BMPs on yield and farm revenue is still lacking. Direct assessment of BMPs in operating farms is difficult because producers adjust other inputs and practices when implementing BMPs. A dataset with 5 yr of crop rotation, farm inputs, and soil and climate data was obtained from farms in New Brunswick, Canada. Two-step regression with a stochastic production function method was used to assess the impacts of three crop rotations and two tillage practices on potato yield. Potato yield increased when potato frequency increased in the rotation. This effect was largely caused by increased fertilizer and other inputs on rotations with a higher potato frequency. Spring moldboard plowing had negative effects on yield compared with fall moldboard plowing. The two-step yield model was used with different scenarios to estimate the effect of crop rotation on farm revenue net of input costs. Rotations with lower potato frequency had higher net revenue for the potato year, largely because of reduced input costs. However, rotations with higher potato frequency had higher overall (multiyear) net revenues because of the more valuable potato years in the rotation. Therefore, without considering the long-term impacts on the environment, the overall financial impacts of rotations with lower potato frequency were negative. This suggests that other incentives for adopting BMPs are necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Loss of natural heritage is a problem that is particularly prevalent in areas of high population density. We used a survey to understand the factors that drive environmental behavior of landowners in southwestern Ontario, Canada. The survey, which contained questions about environmental attitude, pro-environmental behavior and demographics, was mailed to 18,090 rural route addresses, and we received 3256 completed surveys (18% response rate). Two types of environmental behavior, namely voluntarily increasing the area of land set aside for conservation, and enrollment in a conservation stewardship program, were significantly correlated with a positive attitude towards conservation. Financial considerations also played a role. We showed that the biggest motivator to enroll in a wetland enhancement program was access to 'more information on how the decline in wetland area affects them personally', while 'public recognition' was the least motivating factor. We suggest that enrollment in voluntary land stewardship programs might be increased by providing information about the effects of ecosystem loss, and by providing financial incentives for participation. In a larger social context, outreach programs by government agencies could focus on improving pro-environmental attitudes, which in turn is likely to result in more pro-environmental behavior of landowners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a global dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model to analyze the comparative economic impacts of the 2006 softwood lumber agreement between Canada and the United States over the 2007-2013 period and the extent to which Canadian Provinces made a favorable choice of export tax border measure options. Results show that the agreement was effective in curtailing Canada's softwood lumber entry into the United States market. It benefited the United States producers through increased stumpage rates, whereas the United States consumers lost marginally in welfare due to increased price index while gaining in household income. Canadian producers compensated for their loss of market share in the United States by redirecting their exports to rest of the world market. All Canadian Provinces except Saskatchewan and Ontario made a favorable choice of the export tax border measure options from a consumer welfare perspective. However, alternative export border control measure choices could have had more favorable impacts on other economic variables in these and other Provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used a stochastic production function method together with a farm-level dataset covering 18 farms over a 23-year period to assess the role that soil and water conservation practices play in affecting the climate change impacts on potato yield in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. Our analysis accounted for the yield effects of farm inputs, farm technologies, farm-specific factors, seasonal climatic variables, soil and water conservation practices, and a series of interaction terms between soil and water conservation practices and climatic variables. Regression results were used in combination with three climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (A2, A1B, B1) and four general circulation model predictions over three 30-year time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) to estimate a range of potato yield projections over these time periods. Results show that accounting for soil and water conservation practices in climate-yield relationships increased the impacts of climate change on potato yield, with yield increases of up to 38 % by the 2071-2100 period. These findings provide evidence that adoption of soil and water conservation practices can help boost potato production in a changing Canadian climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Forest Research is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We examined the sensitivity of social benefits to the amount (scope) of protected natural areas (PNAs) in the Eastern Canadian province of New Brunswick using the contingent valuation method. Household willingness-to-pay responses were elicited under three valuation scenarios: (1) maintaining the existing amount of PNAs at 2 per cent of the provincial land base; (2) increasing the PNAs to 8 per cent of the provincial land base; (3) increasing the PNAs to 14 per cent of the provincial land base. Under these scenarios, mean willingness-to-pay values were estimated at $58.63, $66.57 and $71.29 (CDN) per household per year, respectively. While these mean values initially indicated that social benefits were sensitive to scope, analysis of values within the 95% confidence interval revealed scope insensitivity. The possible sources and implications of these findings are discussed in the context of future benefit–cost analyses associated with PNA policies in the province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Forest Research is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

There is a general consensus that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of freshwater flooding in many parts of the world. Communities prone to such flooding have struggled to understand the manner in which this will affect them (in both economic and social terms) and the appropriate way to adapt. In this study, we conduct a case-study investigation into the costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change along the Saint John River in Fredericton, NB, Canada. We develop a four-step framework that combines extreme event analysis, downscaled general circulation models, hydrologic analysis, and the contingent valuation method. Using this framework, together with primary data on a 2005 flooding event, we estimate market and non-market annual average flood damage under a number of climate and population scenarios. We find that non-market costs can represent up to 50% of total household costs of flooding events, and 23-42% of the total costs of flooding due to climate change, depending on the different climate and population scenarios considered. Incorporating such costs into flood adaptation planning may substantially increase support for active adaptation activities, especially in 'worst case' climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the social benefits of controlling two very different forest insect outbreaks in New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan (SK), namely spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana) and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) (Malacosoma disstria). Using dichotomous choice contingent valuation mail surveys, households in NB and SK were asked to indicate their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for controlling future SBW and FTC outbreaks. A majority of respondents (over 80% in each province) favored controlling outbreaks of these insects. In both provinces, respondents were on average willing to pay more for controlling SBW outbreaks compared to FTC outbreaks. Aggregate social benefits (measured via compensating surplus) associated with proposed insect control programs in NB resulted in annual social benefits of $14.3-20.8 million for SBW control, and $7.9-14.5 million for FTC control. Comparable net benefits in SK were $22.2-32.4 million for SBW control, and $11.7-22.0 million for FTC control. These results highlight the significance and uniqueness of social benefits generated from controlling outbreaks of these insects, and provide a foundation for incorporating them into a full benefit-cost analysis used to help make more informed and efficient policy decisions. La présente étude a évalué les avantages collectifs de la lutte contre les invasions de deuxinsectes forestiers au Nouveau-Brunswick (NB) et en Saskatchewan (SK), à savoir la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana) et la livrée des forêts (FTC) (Malacosoma disstria). Au moyen de sondages postaux élaborés selon la méthode d'évaluation contingente avec choix dichotomiques, nous avons demandéà des ménages au NB et en SK d'indiquer leur consentement à payer pour lutter contre des invasions futures de SBW et de FTC. Une majorité de répondants (soit plus de 80p.100 dans chaque province) a indiquéêtre en faveur de la lutte contre ces insectes. Dans les deuxprovinces, les répondants étaient en moyenne prêts à payer davantage pour la lutte contre la SBW que pour la lutte contre la FTC. Les avantages collectifs globaux (évalués d'après le surplus compensatoire) des programmes de lutte proposés au NB se sont soldés par des avantages collectifs annuels variant de 14,3 à 20,8millions de dollars (M$) dans le cas de la lutte contre la SBW et de 7,9 à 14,5M$ dans le cas de la lutte contre la FTC. En SK, les avantages collectifs nets ont été comparables, variant de 22,2à32,4M$ dans le cas de la lutte contre la SBW, et de 11,7à22,0M$ dans le cas de la lutte contre la FTC. Ces résultats font ressortir l'importance et la valeur unique des avantages collectifs générés par la lutte contre les invasions de ces insectes et fournissent un argument pour les intégrer dans une analyse avantages-coûts afin de favoriser la prise de décisions stratégiques éclairées et efficaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study investigates the regional economic impacts resulting from the current mountain pine beetle infestation in British Columbia, Canada, and proposes a mitigation strategy to reduce the negative impacts. The strategy consists of reducing the abrupt timber supply changes in an infested region through a reciprocal wood flow arrangement with an adjacent region less affected by the beetle. Two study areas facing different levels of beetle pressure are investigated: the Quesnel Timber Supply Area (high beetle pressure) and the combined Williams Lake/100 Mile House Timber Supply Area (low beetle pressure). A computable general equilibrium model is constructed for each region and is used to simulate the sensitivity of a suite of economic indicators to various timber supply scenarios for both regions. The results indicate that the negative economic impacts attributed to beetle damage could be reduced under a reciprocal wood flow agreement between the two regions. The degree to which the impacts are reduced in each region depends largely on assumptions about forest regeneration and growth and the terms of the reciprocal wood flow agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Forest Research is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) (SBW) outbreaks on 2.8 million ha of Crown land in New Brunswick, Canada and compared an early intervention strategy (EIS) with foliage protection approaches. We coupled the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of EIS and foliage protection on 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of susceptible Crown (publicly owned) forest, under moderate and severe SBW outbreak scenarios. Cumulative available harvest supply from 2017 to 2067 was projected to be reduced by 29 to 43 million m3, depending upon SBW outbreak severity, and a successful EIS approach would prevent this loss. These harvest reductions were projected to reduce total economic output by $25 billion (CAD) to $35 billion. Scenarios using biological insecticide foliage protection over 20% of susceptible Crown forest area were projected to reduce losses to 6–17 million m3 and $0.5–4.1 billion. Depending upon SBW outbreak severity, EIS was projected to have benefit/cost ratios of 3.8 to 6.4 and net present values of $186 million to $353 million, both higher than foliage protection strategies. Sensitivity analysis scenarios of 'what if' EIS partially works (80% or 90%) showed that these produced superior timber harvest savings than the best foliage protection scenario under severe SBW outbreak conditions and generally superior results under moderate outbreak scenarios. Overall, results support the continued use of EIS as the preferred strategy on economic grounds to protect against SBW outbreaks on Crown land in New Brunswick. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]