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The article considers the evolution of two "Second Demographic Tradition" (SDT) core characteristics: fertility postponement and the rise of cohabitation, with particular attention being given to the first two decades of the new century. It can be considered as the sequel to the concise overview of the SDT published earlier in the US Proceedings of the National Academy (PNAS) (Lesthaeghe, 2014). In the first section, three optimistic views concerning the evolution of fertility are considered: (i) rises due to the end of postponement, (ii) rises connected with advancing human development and (iii) rises associated with advancing gender equality. The focus in this section is mainly but not exclusively on the European experience and its large degree of variation in fertility patterns. It is argued that these three optimistic predictions of sustained fertility rises are mainly based on observations prior to 2010, with too much weight being given to four Nordic countries and too little to other Western European countries with very similar fertility levels. However, these expectations have been thwarted during the second decade, even in the presence of advances in human development and/or gender equality. Hence, the original SDT prediction of 1986 of sustained sub-replacement fertility still holds after 35 years. We expect this to continue during the third decade as well. Furthermore, single-factor explanations are not likely to do justice to far more intricate situations that are responsive to varying structural and ideational influences. In the second section, the evolution of cohabitation is traced in Europe, the USA and Canada, the Latin American countries, three East Asian populations and selected sub-Saharan cases. At the onset, cohabitation can start either from a SDT basis among the better educated or among the poorer classes following a pattern of disadvantage (POD). It is argued that the feature of cohabitation spreads rapidly among all social classes and across all education groups and that in the process of increasing cohabitation, the POD versus SDT argument loses its significance. On a global scale, the rise in cohabitation is contingent on two dimensions: (i) contrasting historical patterns of kinship organisation, including the position of women, and (ii) further advances of the "ethics revolution", indicating the growing dominance of individual autonomy over traditional societal norms. As a result, no breakthroughs in the near future are expected in countries with a Muslim or Hindu tradition in which no such major cultural shifts have occurred so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article gives a concise overview of the theoretical development of the concept of the "second demographic transition" since it was coined in 1986, its components, and its applicability, first to European populations and subsequently also to non-European societies as well. Both the demographic and the societal contrasts between the first demographic transition (FDT) and the second demographic transition (SDT) are highlighted. Then, the major criticisms of the SDT theory are outlined, and these issues are discussed in the light of the most recent developments in Europe, the United States, the Far East, and Latin America. It turns out that three major SDT patterns have developed and that these evolutions are contingent on much older systems of kinship and family organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a study of how the synergisms between cultural and structural factors, which played a major role during the historical fertility and nuptiality transition (first demographic transition or FDT), have continued to condition demographic innovations connected to the "second demographic transition" (SDT). The continuity or discontinuity from the "first" to the "second" demographic transition is studied for spatial aggregates over more than a century in two national contexts, i.e. Belgium and Spain. Special attention is paid to the role of successive secularization waves in shaping the geographical patterns of both transitions. The study also shows that the maps of the two aspects of the SDT, i.e. the "postponement" and the "non-conformism" transitions respectively, are shaped by different determinants. Explanations are offered using the "Ready, Willing, and Able" paradigm, which allows us to uncover the different conditioning and limiting factors involved. The "non-conformist" transitions (control of marital fertility during the FDT and rise of cohabitation and non-conventional family formation during the SDT) more closely mirror the history of secularization and the "Willingness" condition, whereas the fertility postponement aspect of the SDT mainly reflects female education and employment, or the "Readiness" condition. This generalization holds in both countries. However, in Belgium spatial continuity from FDT to SDT is connected to stable patterns of secularization, whereas in Spain it is linked to long standing differences with respect to female literacy and education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dramatic shift from marriage to cohabitation during the last four decades in most Latin American countries, even among the upper social strata, begs the question as to the living arrangements of cohabiting couples and single mothers. The new 'Family Interrelationships Variables' in the IPUMS samples of Latin American censuses facilitated the construction of an enlarged LIPRO typology. LIPRO classifies individuals with respect to the types of households in which they are living. The results indicate that cohabiting women and single mothers aged 25 to 29 are frequently found in their parental households or in other extended or composite households. However, there are large variations depending on country and education. For instance, cohabitation is mainly in nuclear households, as in Europe, in Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Argentina. It occurs mainly in the context of extended households in Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, and Cuba. Mexico and Chile occupy intermediate positions. In all instances co-residence of cohabiting couples with other kin drops significantly upon the transition to parenthood, at which point there are no longer any differences between cohabiting and married couples. Single mothers, however, continue to co-reside in extended or composite households to a larger extent, and this holds particularly for the better-educated among them. This analysis illustrates that cohabitation of the traditional type and of the 'Second Demographic Transition' type are found alongside each other, with one being more important than the other depending on country and on educational level or social class within each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article describes the rise of unmarried cohabitation in Latin American countries during the last 30 years of the twentieth century, both at the national and regional levels. It documents that this major increase occurred in regions with and without traditional forms of cohabitation alike. In addition, the striking degree of catching up of cohabitation among the better-educated population segments is illustrated. The connections between these trends and economic (periods of high inflation) and cultural (reduction of stigmas in ethical domains) factors are discussed. The conclusion is that the periods of inflation and hyperinflation may have been general catalysts, but no clear indications of correlation were found between such economic factors and the rise in cohabitation. The shift toward more tolerance for hitherto stigmatized forms of conduct (e.g., homosexuality, euthanasia, abortion, singleparent household) is in line with the rise of cohabitation in regions of Argentina, Chile, and Brazil where cohabitation used to be uncommon. Further rises in cohabitation during the first decade of the twenty-first century are expected in a number of countries (e.g., mexico) despite conditions of much lower inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a “split correlation” with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research note is a sequel to an earlier article in this journal (Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2006) in which we documented a strong and robust spatial correlation between the 2000 and 2004 presidential election results on the one hand and the extent to which states and counties had evolved on the “second demographic transition” (SDT) dimension. At that time the critique was voiced that this was an exceptional result valid for the Bush elections only, given the prominence of the “culture war” issues during these election campaigns. This correlation was predicted to shrink substantially if economic issues instead of cultural and life style ones were dominant campaign topics. The 2008 Obama–McCain contest provides a good test for this proposition, since the elections took place at a time when economic issues had risen to great prominence in the debate. In this note we show that the spatial association between the vote for McCain and the county- or state-level values on the SDT dimension remained as strong and as robust as before. Moreover, controls for competing explanations again failed to weaken or eliminate the correlation with the SDT dimension. Instead, anomalies in the correlations in 2004 for several Southern and Appalachian states disappeared in 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current demographic changes in the United States closely follow those posited by the "second demographic transition" (SDT) theory. Characteristics such as rises in premarital cohabitation and in fertility among cohabiters, postponement of both marriage and parenthood, subreplacement fertility, and large immigration streams are all ingredients that are clearly shared with other western SDT countries. The United States has several idiosyncratic features such as high immigrant fertility (mainly Mexican) and high teenage fertility (both black and white) in several regions that lift overall fertility to replacement level. An analysis of the spatial patterns of these characteristics, at levels of both 50 states and 3,141 counties, shows a remarkable correlation with the outcomes of the last two presidential elections. The negative correlation between the "second demographic transition" dimension and the vote for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 is resistant to controls for possible common causes of a socioeconomic or cultural nature (such as income, education, urbanization, religion, ethnicity), suggesting that the "second demographic transition" itself has been a factor that directly co-determined the spatial pattern of political outcomes such as presidential elections and regional aspects of the "American culture war." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The article presents information on an agenda for population studies, which was drawn up by sociologist Geoffrey McNicoll in 1992. In 1992 Michael drew up an agenda for population studies in which he warned about the danger of demography's contracting to its accountancy core, that is, to its technical and statistical home base. Such a fear was obviously inspired by a continuing encroachment of other social sciences such as sociology, history, anthropology, and especially economics into the classic domain-largely defined by a small set of dependent variables-of demography. Sociologist Nathan Keyfitz in 1984 felt similarly that demography has withdrawn from its borders and has left a no man's land which other disciplines have infiltrated. Such encroachments are felicitous for the social sciences because they open up new opportunities for advancement. McNicoll notices these expanding opportunities. Indeed, in surveying theoretical work written in the 1990s, the researchers have found several reassessments of demographic theories. Alan Wolfe.

Copyright of Population & Development Review is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Population & Development Review is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Population & Development Review is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Population & Development Review is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)