1. Prediction of the distribution range of Pistacia atlantica under different climate change scenarios in Zagros forests.
- Author
-
Zadeh, Vahid Mirzaei, Mahdavi, Ali, Naji, Hamidreza, and Ahmadi, Hamzeh
- Subjects
GENERAL circulation model ,CLIMATE change ,ATMOSPHERIC circulation ,PISTACIA ,SPECIES distribution - Abstract
Today, attention has been paid to the effects of global climate change on different species and ecosystems. Our aim was to predict the distribution range of Pistacia atlantica species under different climate change scenarios in the semi-arid forests of Zagros, Iran. Data related to environmental and climatic variables in three time periods under four atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-CSM2-MR, HadGEM3-GC31-LL and ACCESS-CM2) in two different scenarios (SSP245-SSP585) It was used to predict the distribution range of Pistacia atlantica in the time periods of 2050 and 2070. The results showed that among the four distribution models, the MaxEnt model with excellent accuracy (AUC = 0.947) justifies the distribution range and for predicting time periods. In 2050 and 2070 under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios and MRI-ESM2-0 and HadGEM3-GC31-LL models showed higher accuracy. The effect of different predictive factors on the range of P. atlantica showed that in the optimistic (SSP245) and pessimistic (SSP585) scenarios for the periods of 2050 and 2070, respectively, factors such as altitude. Variables resulting from temperature (seasonal temperature changes, annual temperature); The variables resulting from precipitation (seasonal changes of precipitation, precipitation in the wettest season) had the greatest effect in predicting the distribution pattern of P. atlantica trees in the Zagros forest of Ilam province. Also, the results of the model in optimistic and pessimistic conditions showed that the area of excellent, good and poor classes will decrease in the future and the area of very good and average classes will increase in the future. Examining the change of the spatial distribution pattern of the species from SSP245 and SSP585 (from optimistic and pessimistic conditions) shows a decrease in the presence of P. atlantica in the region, especially in the high potential class. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF