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This article uses a survey amongst students at European universities to explore whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes towards European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia's assault on 24 February 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi‐experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants' interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion towards shared European values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors show that the commonly used metric for the cost of reserves, the sovereign spread, is too simplistic and may overstate the true cost. The opportunity cost was defined as a comparison of alternative investment returns, and the cost of adjustment as the cost of reserve depletion. However, a tradeoff emerged: the opportunity cost increases when reserves are at a high level, whereas a high level of reserves is associated with a lower adjustment cost. Then, for most countries in their sample the carry-trade cost is lower than the credit-risk cost. [Extracted from the article]

This paper contributes to the theory of optimal international reserves by extending the Jeanne-Rancière (Econ J 121:905-930, 2011) endowment small open economy (SOE) model to a SOE with production that accounts for the main sources of economic growth. We, first, derive a richer analytical version of the optimal reserves formula in our set-up, essentially driven by labour-augmenting productivity and the saving rate. Then, under a plausible calibration based on 1975-2020 data averages for typical emerging market countries facing the risk of sudden stops in capital inflows, we find that the optimal reserves-to-output ratio is 7.5%, i.e., the mid-point in the range between that in Jeanne and Rancière (Econ J 121:905-930, 2011), of 9.1%, calibrated to the same sample of 34 middle-income countries, and that in Bianchi et al. (Am Econ Rev 108(9):2629-2670, 2018), of 6.0%, obtained in a different, sovereign debt model without capital and production. We explain the lower optimal reserves-to-output ratio relative to the endowment SOE by the role of capital accumulation as precautionary saving: the accumulated capital stock can potentially be used as a pledge to external creditors in obtaining borrowing, thereby insuring better a SOE against sudden stops. As the countries in our sample appear quite heterogeneous, we also compute the optimal reserves-to-output ratio by region. It turns out that our extended to production insurance SOE model matches well the average reserves-to-output ratio in the data for Latin America, represented by nearly half of our sample, 16 countries, at just above 10%. Yet, for Asia, Africa and Europe our regional model-based ratios understate considerably the respective data averages, suggesting the need to explore alternative modelling approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a survey among students at European universities to explore whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes toward European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia’s assault on February 24, 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants’ interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU, and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion toward shared European values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper examines how the interplay between economic incentives and social preferences transmitted by ideology plays a role in the rise and fall of communism. We introduce inequality-averse and inefficiency-averse agents and model their conflict in ideology, triggered by envy. The socioeconomic dynamics generate a pendulum-like switch from markets to a centrally planned economy abolishing private ownership, and back to restoring market incentives. The grand experiment of communism is thus characterized as leading to the discovery of a trade-off between equality and efficiency. The model also derives conditions under which the two systems converge and become stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the determinants of the support for the European Central Bank ( ECB) in the member countries of the European Monetary Union ( EMU) and their evolution from 1999 to 2015. Our contribution is to examine micro-level sociodemographic characteristics from the Eurobarometer surveys jointly with macroeconomic indicators of trust in a central bank in order to evaluate econometrically their relative importance over time. Pseudo-panel logit estimates reveal that the former have a dynamically stable, and generally stronger influence taken altogether, when compared with the latter. Interestingly, we find that while expected inflation becomes a positive determinant of trust in the ECB after the global financial crisis ( GFC), actual inflation gets no statistical significance. Having taken centre stage in the monetary policy debate in the Euro-area post- GFC and especially since 2013, excessive disinflation and risk of deflation attracted strong attention by the public and have consequently affected its perceptions about the ECB. Accordingly, our results emphasise forward lookingness of the EMU population with regard to 'deflation scares' in determining trust in the ECB, in addition to disentangling the contributions of the key individual-level sociodemographic factors, and can duly inform ECB's communication strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the determinacy implications of forecast-based monetary policy rules that set the interest rate in response to expected future inflation in a Neo-Wicksellian model that incorporates real balance effects. We show that the presence of such effects in closed economies restricts the ability of the Taylor principle to prevent indeterminacy of the rational expectations equilibrium. The problem is exacerbated in open economies, particularly if the policy rule reacts to consumer-price, rather than domestic-price, inflation. However, determinacy can be restored in both closed and open economies with the addition of monetary policy inertia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we apply GMM estimation to assess the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics in a sample of OECD countries typically classified as open economies. The analysis is based on a variant of the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (Rev Econ Stud 72:707-734, ), where the novel feature is that expectations about fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as the more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in ) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares exchange rate pass-through to aggregate prices in the US, Germany and Japan across a number of dimensions. Building on the empirical approaches in the recent literature, our contribution is to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis of pass-through estimates. We find that the econometric method, data frequency and variable proxy employed matter for the precision of details, yet they often agree on some general trends. Thus, pass-through to import prices has declined in the 1990s relative to the 1980s, pass-through to export prices remains country-specific and pass-through to consumer prices is nowadays negligible in all three economies we considered. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates empirically the feedback and stance of monetary policy in the United Kingdom under inflation targeting, implemented since October 1992. Its principal contribution is in comparing two subsamples, before the Bank of England was granted operational independence in May 1997 and after that. We find that the operational independence subperiod has differed from the preindependence one in terms of a weaker response to inflation but stronger sensitivity to the output gap and a less restrictive stance of monetary policy. Such behavior appears justified given the Bank's mandate and the evolution of the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) is the only live attenuated vaccine available against tuberculosis. The first BCG vaccination was done exactly 100 years ago, in 1921. The BCG vaccine strains used worldwide represent a family of daughter sub-strains with distinct genotypic characteristics. BCG SL222 Sofia is a seed lot sub-strain descending from the Russian BCG-I (seed lot 374a) strain and has been used for vaccine production in Bulgaria since 1972. Here, we report the assembled circular genome sequence of Mycobacterium bovis BCG SL222 Sofia and phylogeny analysis with the most closely related BCG sub-strains. The full circular genome of BCG SL222 Sofia had a length of 4,370,706 bp with an average GC content of 65.60%. After 49 years of in vitro evolution in a freeze-dried condition, we identified four SNP mutations as compared to the reference BCG-I (Russia-368) sequence. BCG vaccination is of central importance for the TB elimination programs in many countries. Since 1991, almost 40 million vaccine doses of the BCG SL222 Sofia have been distributed annually through the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) to approximately 120 countries. The availability of the complete reference genome sequence for M. bovis BCG SL222 Sofia, a WHO reference reagent for the Russian BCG-I sub-strain, will facilitate the identity assurance of the genomic stability, will contribute to more consistent manufacturing, and has an important value in standardization and differentiation of sub-strains used in vaccine production. We propose to rename the sub-strain BCG SL222 Sofia to BCG-Sofia for practical and common use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]