Search

The ocean circulation dynamics can be represented as a high‐dimensional multi‐scale nonlinear system with inhomogenous meanfields and topography. Numerical simulations of the ocean dynamics resolve the large scales of motion on a computational grid, with the unresolved subgrid interactions parameterized. These simulations are highly dependent upon the grid resolution, unless the subgrid terms are appropriately parameterized. There are five fundamental classes of subgrid interactions: eddy‐eddy; eddy‐topographic; eddy‐meanfield; meanfield‐meanfield; and meanfield‐topographic. Scale dependent parameterizations representing each of these interaction classes are presented here in oceanic flows for the first time. Subgrid parameterizations are calculated and validated in baroclinic quasi‐geostrophic simulations of idealized Antarctic Circumpolar Current flows with representative mean currents and ocean floor topography. The parameterization coefficients are derived from the coarse grained statistics of high resolution reference simulations in spectral space. Stochastic and deterministic parameterizations are developed for the eddy‐eddy interactions, and deterministic forms for the remaining classes. The kinetic energy spectra and meanfield resulting from large eddy simulations (LES) adopting these coefficients accurately replicate those of the reference simulation. The eddy‐eddy interactions are dominant, but all classes need to be parameterized for best results. For LES where baroclinic instability is explicitly resolved the stochastic variants out‐perform the deterministic ones across all scales. When baroclinic instability is not explicitly resolved, the stochastic variants out‐perform the deterministic cases at the large scales, but introduce some distortions at the smallest resolved scales. This study provides an assessment of the relevant strengths of the subgrid interaction classes in an idealized yet representative ocean. Plain Language Summary: Numerical simulation of oceanic circulations is incredibly challenging due in part to the large range of scales. There are oscillations on the size of entire ocean basins, through to fine scale centimeter sized turbulence, and everything in between. Global simulations of the ocean typically capture the large scale features on a discrete grid. To ensure these simulations are physically representative, the influence of the missing smaller scales needs to be captured accurately. Here we present a first calculation of parameterizations governing the interactions between the resolved dynamics and the missing small scale eddies, meanfield and topographic features. Reduced resolution simulations incorporating these parameterizations without tuning have statistics in very good agreement with the high resolution simulations from which they were derived. Key Points: Subgrid models of all interaction classes between eddies, meanfield and topography are calculated from reference global ocean simulationsInter‐eddy interactions are modeled both stochastically and deterministically, with deterministic models used for the other interactionsCoarse simulations using these subgrid coefficients without tuning are in very good agreement with those of the high‐resolution simulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled general circulation models (GCM), and their atmospheric, oceanic, land, and sea‐ice components have many parameters. Some parameters determine the numerics of the dynamical core, while others are based on our current understanding of the physical processes being simulated. Many of these parameters are poorly known, often globally defined, and are subject to pragmatic choices arising from a complex interplay between grid resolution and inherent model biases. To address this problem, we use an ensemble transform Kalman filter, to estimate spatiotemporally varying maps of ocean albedo and shortwave radiation e‐folding length scale in a coupled climate GCM. These parameters are designed to minimize the error between short term (3–28 days) forecasts of the climate model and a network of real world atmospheric, oceanic, and sea‐ice observations. The data assimilation system has an improved fit to observations when estimating ocean albedo and shortwave e‐folding length scale either individually or simultaneously. However, only individually estimated maps of shortwave e‐folding length scale are also shown to systematically reduce bias in longer multiyear climate forecasts during an out‐of‐sample period. The bias of the multiyear forecasts is reduced for parameter maps determined from longer DA cycle lengths. Plain Language Summary: Coupled general circulation models have many model parameters, some of which are known with little precision. This contributes to the observed biases and limits to predictability. We address this problem by using an ensemble Kalman filter to systematically and objectively determine selected ocean optical properties that minimize the difference between an ensemble of short term climate forecasts and a network of real world observations of the Earth system. These trained model parameters are shown to reduce the onset of model bias in both short term (3–28 days) forecasts and longer term multiyear forecasts of the climate. Such improved multiyear predictions would potentially enable policy makers to make better informed decisions on water, energy and agricultural infrastructure and planning. Key Points: A 96 member ensemble transform Kalman filter is used to estimate ocean optical parameters in a coupled global climate modelThe parameter estimation improves the fit of the data assimilation system to a network of real world observationsOut‐of‐sample multiyear climate forecasts adopting estimated shortwave penetration depth have reduced model bias [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the global scale, reconstructions of cool season temperature over past centuries are relatively rare. Here we present 277-year reconstructions of cool season (July–October) temperatures for southern Australia based on three different data sets: a spatial field reconstruction based on highly resolved temperature data from the Australian Water Availability Product data; reconstructions for the four southeast Australian states based on the Berkeley Earth mean temperature data for each state; and reconstructions for individual stations in southeastern Australia from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Australian Climate Observations Reference Network–Surface Air Temperature data. Our reconstructions typically capture 25–50% of the variation over the late twentieth Century calibration period and are strongest for the southern state of Tasmania and the southeastern part of mainland Australia. All three use Tasmanian tree-rings sensitive to cool season temperatures and display similar variability. In the context of our reconstructions, the persistent warming in the observed record since ~ 1950 is unprecedented. While the low frequency variability of winter temperatures is generally in step with that in summer (December–February) temperatures, high frequency variability is not, illustrating the need for seasonal reconstructions to help improve understanding of variability in inter-seasonal dynamics and the historical importance of this on the environment. The reconstructions covary with changes in the Southern Annular Mode and may be useful for future reconstructions of this phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circulation regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemispheric wave-3 pattern which is associated with blocking. Previous studies into the causes of these secular trends have either been purely model based, have not included observational forcing data or have mixed external forcing with indices of internal climate variability impeding a systematic and unbiased attribution of the causes of the secular trends. Most model studies also focused mainly on the austral summer season. However, the changes to the storm tracks have occurred in all seasons and particularly in the austral winter and early spring when midlatitude blocking is most active and stratospheric ozone should not play a role. Here we systematically attribute the secular trends over the recent decades using a non-stationary clustering method applied to both reanalysis and observational forcing data from all seasons. While most previous studies emphasized the importance of stratospheric ozone depletion in causing austral summer SH circulation trends, we show observational evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations have been the major driver of these secular trends in the SAM and blocking when all seasons are considered. Our results suggest that the recovery of the ozone hole might delay the signal of global warming less strongly than previously thought and that effects from all seasons are likely crucial in understanding the causes of the secular trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circulation regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemispheric wave-3 pattern which is associated with blocking. Previous studies into the causes of these secular trends have either been purely model based, have not included observational forcing data or have mixed external forcing with indices of internal climate variability impeding a systematic and unbiased attribution of the causes of the secular trends. Most model studies also focused mainly on the austral summer season. However, the changes to the storm tracks have occurred in all seasons and particularly in the austral winter and early spring when midlatitude blocking is most active and stratospheric ozone should not play a role. Here we systematically attribute the secular trends over the recent decades using a non-stationary clustering method applied to both reanalysis and observational forcing data from all seasons. While most previous studies emphasized the importance of stratospheric ozone depletion in causing austral sum-mer SH circulation trends, we show observational evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations have been the major driver of these secular trends in the SAM and blocking when all seasons are considered. Our results suggest that the recovery of the ozone hole might delay the signal of global warming less strongly than previously thought and that effects from all seasons are likely crucial in understanding the causes of the secular trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circula-tion regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemispheric wave 3 pattern which is associated with blocking. Previous studies into the causes of these secular trends have either been purely model based, have not included observational forcing data or have mixed external forcing with indices of internal climate variability impeding a systematic and unbiased attribution of the causes of the secular trends. Most model studies also focused mainly on the austral summer season. However, the changes to the storm tracks have occurred in all seasons and particularly in the austral winter and early spring when mid-latitude blocking is most active and stratospheric ozone should not a play a role. Here we systematically attribute the secular trends over the recent decades using a non-stationary clustering method applied to both reanalysis and observational forcing data from all seasons. While most previous studies emphasized the importance of stratospheric ozone depletion in causing austral summer SH circulation trends, we show observational evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations have been the major driver of these secular trends in the SAM and blocking when all seasons are considered. Our results suggest that the recovery of the ozone hole might delay the signal of global warming less strongly than previously thought and that effects from all seasons are likely crucial in understanding the causes of the secular trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]