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Symbolic regression with polynomial neural networks and polynomial neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are two recent and powerful approaches for equation recovery of many science and engineering problems. However, these methods provide point estimates for the model parameters and are currently unable to accommodate noisy data. We address this challenge by developing and validating the following Bayesian inference methods: the Laplace approximation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods, and variational inference. We have found the Laplace approximation to be the best method for this class of problems. Our work can be easily extended to the broader class of symbolic neural networks to which the polynomial neural network belongs. Author summary: Polynomial neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are a recent approach for symbolic regression of dynamical systems governed by polynomials. However, they are limited in that they provide maximum likelihood point estimates of the model parameters. The domain expert using system identification often desires a specified level of confidence or range of parameter values that best fit the data. In this work, we use Bayesian inference to provide posterior probability distributions of the parameters in polynomial neural ODEs. To date, there are no studies that attempt to identify the best Bayesian inference method for neural ODEs and symbolic neural ODEs. To address this need, we explore and compare three different approaches for estimating the posterior distributions of weights and biases of the polynomial neural network: the Laplace approximation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, and variational inference. We have found the Laplace approximation to be the best method for this class of problems. We have also developed lightweight JAX code to estimate posterior probability distributions using the Laplace approximation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heuristics can inform human decision making in complex environments through a reduction of computational requirements (accuracy-resource trade-off) and a robustness to overparameterisation (less-is-more). However, tasks capturing the efficiency of heuristics typically ignore action proficiency in determining rewards. The requisite movement parameterisation in sensorimotor control questions whether heuristics preserve efficiency when actions are nontrivial. We developed a novel action selection-execution task requiring joint optimisation of action selection and spatio-temporal skillful execution. State-appropriate choices could be determined by a simple spatial heuristic, or by more complex planning. Computational models of action selection parsimoniously distinguished human participants who adopted the heuristic from those using a more complex planning strategy. Broader comparative analyses then revealed that participants using the heuristic showed combined decisional (selection) and skill (execution) advantages, consistent with a less-is-more framework. In addition, the skill advantage of the heuristic group was predominantly in the core spatial features that also shaped their decision policy, evidence that the dimensions of information guiding action selection might be yoked to salient features in skill learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neural networks have the ability to serve as universal function approximators, but they are not interpretable and do not generalize well outside of their training region. Both of these issues are problematic when trying to apply standard neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to dynamical systems. We introduce the polynomial neural ODE, which is a deep polynomial neural network inside of the neural ODE framework. We demonstrate the capability of polynomial neural ODEs to predict outside of the training region, as well as to perform direct symbolic regression without using additional tools such as SINDy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic modeling has become an essential tool for studying biochemical reaction networks. There is a growing need for user-friendly and feature-complete software for model design and simulation. To address this need, we present GillesPy2, an open-source framework for building and simulating mathematical and biochemical models. GillesPy2, a major upgrade from the original GillesPy package, is now a stand-alone Python 3 package. GillesPy2 offers an intuitive interface for robust and reproducible model creation, facilitating rapid and iterative development. In addition to expediting the model creation process, GillesPy2 offers efficient algorithms to simulate stochastic, deterministic, and hybrid stochastic-deterministic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pulse rate variability is a physiological parameter that has been extensively studied and correlated with many physical ailments. However, the phase relationship between inter-beat interval, IBI, and breathing has very rarely been studied. Develop a technique by which the phase relationship between IBI and breathing can be accurately and efficiently extracted from photoplethysmography (PPG) data. A program based on Lock-in Amplifier technology was written in Python to implement a novel technique, Dynamic Phase Extraction. It was tested using a breath pacer and a PPG sensor on 6 subjects who followed a breath pacer at varied breathing rates. The data were then analyzed using both traditional methods and the novel technique (Dynamic Phase Extraction) utilizing a breath pacer. Pulse data was extracted using a PPG sensor. Dynamic Phase Extraction (DPE) gave the magnitudes of the variation in IBI associated with breathing (Δ I B I) measured with photoplethysmography during paced breathing (with premature ventricular contractions, abnormal arrhythmias, and other artifacts edited out). Δ I B I correlated well with two standard measures of pulse rate variability: the Standard Deviation of the inter-beat interval (SDNN) (ρ = 0.911) and with the integrated value of the Power Spectral Density between 0.04 and 0.15 Hz (Low Frequency Power or LF Power) (ρ = 0.885). These correlations were comparable to the correlation between the SDNN and the LF Power (ρ = 0.877). In addition to the magnitude Δ I B I , Dynamic Phase Extraction also gave the phase between the breath pacer and the changes in the inter-beat interval (IBI) due to respiratory sinus arrythmia (RSA), and correlated well with the phase extracted using a Fourier transform (ρ = 0.857). Dynamic Phase Extraction can extract both the phase between the breath pacer and the changes in IBI due to the respiratory sinus arrhythmia component of pulse rate variability ( Δ I B I) , but is limited by needing a breath pacer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is a model that allows for efficient on-lattice simulation of spatially resolved stochastic chemical kinetics. Compared to off-lattice hard-sphere simulations with Brownian dynamics or Green's function reaction dynamics, the RDME can be orders of magnitude faster if the lattice spacing can be chosen coarse enough. However, strongly diffusion-controlled reactions mandate a very fine mesh resolution for acceptable accuracy. It is common that reactions in the same model differ in their degree of diffusion control and therefore require different degrees of mesh resolution. This renders mesoscopic simulation inefficient for systems with multiscale properties. Mesoscopic-microscopic hybrid methods address this problem by resolving the most challenging reactions with a microscale, off-lattice simulation. However, all methods to date require manual partitioning of a system, effectively limiting their usefulness as "black-box" simulation codes. In this paper, we propose a hybrid simulation algorithm with automatic system partitioning based on indirect a priori error estimates.We demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the method on models of diffusion-controlled networks in 3D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human brain organoids replicate much of the cellular diversity and developmental anatomy of the human brain. However, the physiology of neuronal circuits within organoids remains under-explored. With high-density CMOS microelectrode arrays and shank electrodes, we captured spontaneous extracellular activity from brain organoids derived from human induced pluripotent stem cells. We inferred functional connectivity from spike timing, revealing a large number of weak connections within a skeleton of significantly fewer strong connections. A benzodiazepine increased the uniformity of firing patterns and decreased the relative fraction of weakly connected edges. Our analysis of the local field potential demonstrate that brain organoids contain neuronal assemblies of sufficient size and functional connectivity to co-activate and generate field potentials from their collective transmembrane currents that phase-lock to spiking activity. These results point to the potential of brain organoids for the study of neuropsychiatric diseases, drug action, and the effects of external stimuli upon neuronal networks. Brain organoids replicate cellular organization found in the developing human brain. Here, the authors utilize microelectronics to map activity in brain organoids and assemble functional circuits that mirror complexity found in brain networks in vivo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reaction-diffusion master equation is a stochastic model often utilized in the study of biochemical reaction networks in living cells. It is applied when the spatial distribution of molecules is important to the dynamics of the system. A viable approach to resolve the complex geometry of cells accurately is to discretize space with an unstructured mesh. Diffusion is modeled as discrete jumps between nodes on the mesh, and the diffusion jump rates can be obtained through a discretization of the diffusion equation on the mesh. Reactions can occur when molecules occupy the same voxel. In this paper, we develop a method for computing accurate reaction rates between molecules occupying the same voxel in an unstructured mesh. For large voxels, these rates are known to be well approximated by the reaction rates derived by Collins and Kimball, but as the mesh is refined, no analytical expression for the rates exists. We reduce the problem of computing accurate reaction rates to a pure preprocessing step, depending only on the mesh and not on the model parameters, and we devise an efficient numerical scheme to estimate them to high accuracy. We show in several numerical examples that as we refine the mesh, the results obtained with the reaction-diffusion master equation approach those of a more fine-grained Smoluchowski particle-tracking model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focal polarization is necessary for finely arranged cell-cell interactions. The yeast mating projection, with its punctate polarisome, is a good model system for this process. We explored the critical role of the polarisome scaffold protein Spa2 during yeast mating with a hypothesis motivated by mathematical modeling and tested by in vivo experiments. Our simulations predicted that two positive feedback loops generate focal polarization, including a novel feedback pathway involving the N-terminal domain of Spa2. We characterized the latter using loss-of-function and gain-of-function mutants. The N-terminal region contains a Spa2 Homology Domain (SHD) which is conserved from yeast to humans, and when mutated largely reproduced the spa2Δ phenotype. Our work together with published data show that the SHD domain recruits Msb3/4 that stimulates Sec4-mediated transport of Bud6 to the polarisome. There, Bud6 activates Bni1-catalyzed actin cable formation, recruiting more Spa2 and completing the positive feedback loop. We demonstrate that disrupting this loop at any point results in morphological defects. Gain-of-function perturbations partially restored focal polarization in a spa2 loss-of-function mutant without restoring localization of upstream components, thus supporting the pathway order. Thus, we have collected data consistent with a novel positive feedback loop that contributes to focal polarization during pheromone-induced polarization in yeast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying the reactions that govern a dynamical biological system is a crucial but challenging task in systems biology. In this work, we present a data-driven method to infer the underlying biochemical reaction system governing a set of observed species concentrations over time. We formulate the problem as a regression over a large, but limited, mass-action constrained reaction space and utilize sparse Bayesian inference via the regularized horseshoe prior to produce robust, interpretable biochemical reaction networks, along with uncertainty estimates of parameters. The resulting systems of chemical reactions and posteriors inform the biologist of potentially several reaction systems that can be further investigated. We demonstrate the method on two examples of recovering the dynamics of an unknown reaction system, to illustrate the benefits of improved accuracy and information obtained. Author summary: Reconstructing the correlated reactions that govern a system of biochemical species from observational temporal data is an essential step in understanding many biological systems. To facilitate this process, we propose a robust, data-driven approach based on a sparse Bayesian statistical model. Our approach exploits sparse Bayesian priors and an unbiased observational model to recover a parsimonious, interpretable reaction system from mass-action relations, utilizing very little user input. On a set of simulated test problems, the method demonstrates increased robustness and decreased bias at different levels of measurement variability, while also producing interpretable reaction systems and quantifying uncertainty. As a tool, the approach can be used to flexibly interrogate biological systems while allowing incorporation of potentially uncertain domain knowledge to improve the efficiency and identifiability of the problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have developed a method for modeling spatial stochastic biochemical reactions in complex, threedimensional, and time-dependent domains using the reaction-diffusion master equation formalism. In particular, we look to address the fully coupled problems that arise in systems biology where the shape and mechanical properties of a cell are determined by the state of the biochemistry and vice versa. To validate our method and characterize the error involved, we compare our results for a carefully constructed test problem to those of a microscale implementation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by simulating a model of polarization and shmoo formation during the mating of yeast. The method is generally applicable to problems in systems biology where biochemistry and mechanics are coupled, and spatial stochastic effects are critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple time scales in cellular chemical reaction systems often render the tau-leaping algorithm inefficient. Various model reductions have been proposed to accelerate tau-leaping simulations. However, these are often identified and deployed manually, requiring expert knowledge. This is time-consuming and prone to error. In previous work, we proposed a methodology for automatic identification and validation of model reduction opportunities for tau-leaping simulation. Here, we show how the model reductions can be automatically and adaptively deployed during the time course of a simulation. For multiscale systems, this can result in substantial speedups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed a method to non-invasively detect synaptic relationships among neurons from in vitro networks. Our method uses microelectrode arrays on which neurons are cultured and from which propagation of extracellular action potentials (eAPs) in single axons are recorded at multiple electrodes. Detecting eAP propagation bypasses ambiguity introduced by spike sorting. Our methods identify short latency spiking relationships between neurons with properties expected of synaptically coupled neurons, namely they were recapitulated by direct stimulation and were sensitive to changing the number of active synaptic sites. Our methods enabled us to assemble a functional subset of neuronal connectivity in our cultures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become a key tool for calibrating the parameters of discrete stochastic biochemical models. For higher dimensional models and data, its performance is strongly dependent on having a representative set of summary statistics. While regression-based methods have been demonstrated to allow for the automatic construction of effective summary statistics, their reliance on first simulating a large training set creates a significant overhead when applying these methods to discrete stochastic models for which simulation is relatively expensive. In this τ work, we present a method to reduce this computational burden by leveraging approximate simulators of these systems, such as ordinary differential equations and τ-Leaping approximations. Results: We have developed an algorithm to accelerate the construction of regression-based summary statistics for Approximate Bayesian Computation by selectively using the faster approximate algorithms for simulations. By posing the problem as one of ratio estimation, we use state-of-the-art methods in machine learning to show that, in many cases, our algorithm can significantly reduce the number of simulations from the full resolution model at a minimal cost to accuracy and little additional tuning from the user. We demonstrate the usefulness and robustness of our method with four different experiments. Conclusions: We provide a novel algorithm for accelerating the construction of summary statistics for stochastic biochemical systems. Compared to the standard practice of exclusively training from exact simulator samples, our method is able to dramatically reduce the number of required calls to the stochastic simulator at a minimal loss in accuracy. This can immediately be implemented to increase the overall speed of the ABC workflow for estimating parameters in complex systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce an approach based on the Givens representation for posterior inference in statistical models with orthogonal matrix parameters, such as factor models and probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA). We show how the Givens representation can be used to develop practical methods for transforming densities over the Stiefel manifold into densities over subsets of Euclidean space. We show how to deal with issues arising from the topology of the Stiefel manifold and how to inexpensively compute the change-of-measure terms. We introduce an auxiliary parameter approach that limits the impact of topological issues. We provide both analysis of our methods and numerical examples demonstrating the effectiveness of the approach. We also discuss how our Givens representation can be used to define general classes of distributions over the space of orthogonal matrices. We then give demonstrations on several examples showing how the Givens approach performs in practice in comparison with other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning is increasingly recognized as a promising technology in the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences. There can be no argument that this technique is incredibly successful in image recognition with immediate applications in diagnostics including electrophysiology, radiology, or pathology, where we have access to massive amounts of annotated data. However, machine learning often performs poorly in prognosis, especially when dealing with sparse data. This is a field where classical physics-based simulation seems to remain irreplaceable. In this review, we identify areas in the biomedical sciences where machine learning and multiscale modeling can mutually benefit from one another: Machine learning can integrate physics-based knowledge in the form of governing equations, boundary conditions, or constraints to manage ill-posted problems and robustly handle sparse and noisy data; multiscale modeling can integrate machine learning to create surrogate models, identify system dynamics and parameters, analyze sensitivities, and quantify uncertainty to bridge the scales and understand the emergence of function. With a view towards applications in the life sciences, we discuss the state of the art of combining machine learning and multiscale modeling, identify applications and opportunities, raise open questions, and address potential challenges and limitations. We anticipate that it will stimulate discussion within the community of computational mechanics and reach out to other disciplines including mathematics, statistics, computer science, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, systems biology, and precision medicine to join forces towards creating robust and efficient models for biological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trauma-induced coagulopathy (TIC) is a disorder that occurs in one-third of severely injured trauma patients, manifesting as increased bleeding and a 4X risk of mortality. Understanding the mechanisms driving TIC, clinical risk factors are essential to mitigating this coagulopathic bleeding and is therefore essential for saving lives. In this retrospective, single hospital study of 891 trauma patients, we investigate and quantify how two prominently described phenotypes of TIC, consumptive coagulopathy and hyperfibrinolysis, affect survival odds in the first 25 h, when deaths from TIC are most prevalent. Methods: We employ a joint survival model to estimate the longitudinal trajectories of the protein Factor II (% activity) and the log of the protein fragment D-Dimer (μ g/ml), representative biomarkers of consumptive coagulopathy and hyperfibrinolysis respectively, and tie them together with patient outcomes. Joint models have recently gained popularity in medical studies due to the necessity to simultaneously track continuously measured biomarkers as a disease evolves, as well as to associate them with patient outcomes. In this work, we estimate and analyze our joint model using Bayesian methods to obtain uncertainties and distributions over associations and trajectories. Results: We find that a unit increase in log D-Dimer increases the risk of mortality by 2.22 [1.57, 3.28] fold while a unit increase in Factor II only marginally decreases the risk of mortality by 0.94 [0.91,0.96] fold. This suggests that, while managing consumptive coagulopathy and hyperfibrinolysis both seem to affect survival odds, the effect of hyperfibrinolysis is much greater and more sensitive. Furthermore, we find that the longitudinal trajectories, controlling for many fixed covariates, trend differently for different patients. Thus, a more personalized approach is necessary when considering treatment and risk prediction under these phenotypes. Conclusion: This study reinforces the finding that hyperfibrinolysis is linked with poor patient outcomes regardless of factor consumption levels. Furthermore, it quantifies the degree to which measured D-Dimer levels correlate with increased risk. The single hospital, retrospective nature can be understood to specify the results to this particular hospital's patients and protocol in treating trauma patients. Expanding to a multi-hospital setting would result in better estimates about the underlying nature of consumptive coagulopathy and hyperfibrinolysis with survival, regardless of protocol. Individual trajectories obtained with these estimates can be used to provide personalized dynamic risk prediction when making decisions regarding management of blood factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The chemical master equation (CME) and the mathematically equivalent stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) assume that the reactant molecules in a chemically reacting system are "dilute" and "well-mixed" throughout the containing volume. Here we clarify what those two conditions mean, and we show why their satisfaction is necessary in order for bimolecular reactions to physically occur in the manner assumed by the CME and the SSA. We prove that these conditions are closely connected, in that a system will stay well-mixed if and only if it is dilute. We explore the implications of these validity conditions for the reaction-diffusion (or spatially inhomogeneous) extensions of the CME and the SSA to systems whose containing volumes are not necessarily well-mixed, but can be partitioned into cubical subvolumes (voxels) that are. We show that the validity conditions, together with an additional condition that is needed to ensure the physical validity of the diffusion-induced jump probability rates of molecules between voxels, require the voxel edge length to have a strictly positive lower bound. We prove that if the voxel edge length is steadily decreased in a way that respects that lower bound, the average rate at which bimolecular reactions occur in the reaction-diffusion CME and SSA will remain constant, while the average rate of diffusive transfer reactions will increase as the inverse square of the voxel edge length. We conclude that even though the reaction-diffusion CME and SSA are inherently approximate, and cannot be made exact by shrinking the voxel size to zero, they should nevertheless be useful in many practical situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many cellular processes require cell polarization to be maintained as the cell changes shape, grows or moves. Without feedback mechanisms relaying information about cell shape to the polarity molecular machinery, the coordination between cell polarization and morphogenesis, movement or growth would not be possible. Here we theoretically and computationally study the role of a genetically-encoded mechanical feedback (in the Cell Wall Integrity pathway) as a potential coordination mechanism between cell morphogenesis and polarity during budding yeast mating projection growth. We developed a coarse-grained continuum description of the coupled dynamics of cell polarization and morphogenesis as well as 3D stochastic simulations of the molecular polarization machinery in the evolving cell shape. Both theoretical approaches show that in the absence of mechanical feedback (or in the presence of weak feedback), cell polarity cannot be maintained at the projection tip during growth, with the polarization cap wandering off the projection tip, arresting morphogenesis. In contrast, for mechanical feedback strengths above a threshold, cells can robustly maintain cell polarization at the tip and simultaneously sustain mating projection growth. These results indicate that the mechanical feedback encoded in the Cell Wall Integrity pathway can provide important positional information to the molecular machinery in the cell, thereby enabling the coordination of cell polarization and morphogenesis. Author summary: Cell migration, morphogenesis and secretion are among the vast number of cellular processes that require cells to define a preferred spatial direction to perform essential tasks. This is achieved by setting an intracellular molecular gradient that polarizes the cell. While the molecular players involved in cell polarization and some of the mechanisms that cells use to establish such molecular gradients are known, it remains unclear how cells maintain polarization as they dramatically change shape during morphogenesis, migration, etc. Here we identify a potential feedback control mechanism, encoded genetically in cells, that provides the molecular polarization machinery with the necessary information about cell geometry to maintain cell polarization during cell shape changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We outline our perspective on stochastic chemical kinetics, paying particular attention to numerical simulation algorithms. We first focus on dilute, well-mixed systems, whose description using ordinary differential equations has served as the basis for traditional chemical kinetics for the past 150 years. For such systems, we review the physical and mathematical rationale for a discrete-stochastic approach, and for the approximations that need to be made in order to regain the traditional continuous-deterministic description. We next take note of some of the more promising strategies for dealing stochastically with stiff systems, rare events, and sensitivity analysis. Finally, we review some recent efforts to adapt and extend the discrete-stochastic approach to systems that are not well-mixed. In that currently developing area, we focus mainly on the strategy of subdividing the system into well-mixed subvolumes, and then simulating diffusional transfers of reactant molecules between adjacent subvolumes together with chemical reactions inside the subvolumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the coagulation process is critical to developing treatments for trauma and coagulopathies. Clinical studies on tranexamic acid (TXA) have resulted in mixed reports on its efficacy in improving outcomes in trauma patients. The largest study, CRASH-2, reported that TXA improved outcomes in patients who received treatment prior to 3 hours after the injury, but worsened outcomes in patients who received treatment after 3 hours. No consensus has been reached about the mechanism behind the duality of these results. In this paper we use a computational model for coagulation and fibrinolysis to propose that deficiencies or depletions of key anti-fibrinolytic proteins, specifically antiplasmin, a1-antitrypsin and a2-macroglobulin, can lead to worsened outcomes through urokinase-mediated hyperfibrinolysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and brain tissue sodium levels increase during migraine. However, little is known regarding the underlying mechanisms of sodium homeostasis disturbance in the brain during the onset and propagation of migraine. Exploring the cause of sodium dysregulation in the brain is important, since correction of the altered sodium homeostasis could potentially treat migraine. Under the hypothesis that disturbances in sodium transport mechanisms at the blood-CSF barrier (BCSFB) and/or the blood-brain barrier (BBB) are the underlying cause of the elevated CSF and brain tissue sodium levels during migraines, we developed a mechanistic, differential equation model of a rat's brain to compare the significance of the BCSFB and the BBB in controlling CSF and brain tissue sodium levels. The model includes the ventricular system, subarachnoid space, brain tissue and blood. Sodium transport from blood to CSF across the BCSFB, and from blood to brain tissue across the BBB were modeled by influx permeability coefficients P BCSFB and P BBB , respectively, while sodium movement from CSF into blood across the BCSFB, and from brain tissue to blood across the BBB were modeled by efflux permeability coefficients P B C S F B ′ and P B B B ′ , respectively. We then performed a global sensitivity analysis to investigate the sensitivity of the ventricular CSF, subarachnoid CSF and brain tissue sodium concentrations to pathophysiological variations in P BCSFB , P BBB , P B C S F B ′ and P B B B ′. Our results show that the ventricular CSF sodium concentration is highly influenced by perturbations of P BCSFB , and to a much lesser extent by perturbations of P B C S F B ′. Brain tissue and subarachnoid CSF sodium concentrations are more sensitive to pathophysiological variations of P BBB and P B B B ′ than variations of P BCSFB and P B C S F B ′ within 30 min of the onset of the perturbations. However, P BCSFB is the most sensitive model parameter, followed by P BBB and P B B B ′ , in controlling brain tissue and subarachnoid CSF sodium levels within 3 h of the perturbation onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years there has been substantial growth in the development of algorithms for characterizing rare events in stochastic biochemical systems. Two such algorithms, the state-dependent weighted stochastic simulation algorithm (swSSA) and the doubly weighted SSA (dwSSA) are extensions of the weighted SSA (wSSA) by H. Kuwahara and I. Mura [J. Chem. Phys. 129, 165101 (2008)]. The swSSA substantially reduces estimator variance by implementing system state-dependent importance sampling (IS) parameters, but lacks an automatic parameter identification strategy. In contrast, the dwSSA provides for the automatic determination of state-independent IS parameters, thus it is inefficient for systems whose states vary widely in time. We present a novel modification of the dwSSA-the state-dependent doubly weighted SSA (sdwSSA)-that combines the strengths of the swSSA and the dwSSA without inheriting their weaknesses. The sdwSSA automatically computes state-dependent IS parameters via the multilevel cross-entropy method. We apply the method to three examples: a reversible isomerization process, a yeast polarization model, and a lac operon model. Our results demonstrate that the sdwSSA offers substantial improvements over previous methods in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the benefits of Michaelis-Menten model reduction techniques in stochastic tau-leaping simulations. Results show that although the conditions for the validity of the reductions for tau-leaping remain the same as those for the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), the reductions result in a substantial speed-up for tau-leaping under a different range of conditions than they do for SSA. The reason of this discrepancy is that the time steps for SSA and for tau-leaping are determined by different properties of system dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In biochemical systems, the occurrence of a rare event can be accompanied by catastrophic consequences. Precise characterization of these events using Monte Carlo simulation methods is often intractable, as the number of realizations needed to witness even a single rare event can be very large. The weighted stochastic simulation algorithm (wSSA) [J. Chem. Phys. 129, 165101 (2008)] and its subsequent extension [J. Chem. Phys. 130, 174103 (2009)] alleviate this difficulty with importance sampling, which effectively biases the system toward the desired rare event. However, extensive computation coupled with substantial insight into a given system is required, as there is currently no automatic approach for choosing wSSA parameters. We present a novel modification of the wSSA-the doubly weighted SSA (dwSSA)-that makes possible a fully automated parameter selection method. Our approach uses the information-theoretic concept of cross entropy to identify parameter values yielding minimum variance rare event probability estimates. We apply the method to four examples: a pure birth process, a birth-death process, an enzymatic futile cycle, and a yeast polarization model. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method (1) enables probability estimation for a class of rare events that cannot be interrogated with the wSSA, and (2) for all examples tested, reduces the number of runs needed to achieve comparable accuracy by multiple orders of magnitude. For a particular rare event in the yeast polarization model, our method transforms a projected simulation time of 600 years to three hours. Furthermore, by incorporating information-theoretic principles, our approach provides a framework for the development of more sophisticated influencing schemes that should further improve estimation accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weighted stochastic simulation algorithm (wSSA) was developed by Kuwahara and Mura [J. Chem. Phys. 129, 165101 (2008)] to efficiently estimate the probabilities of rare events in discrete stochastic systems. The wSSA uses importance sampling to enhance the statistical accuracy in the estimation of the probability of the rare event. The original algorithm biases the reaction selection step with a fixed importance sampling parameter. In this paper, we introduce a novel method where the biasing parameter is state-dependent. The new method features improved accuracy, efficiency, and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have developed a computational framework for accurate and efficient simulation of stochastic spatially inhomogeneous biochemical systems. The new computational method employs a fractional step hybrid strategy. A novel formulation of the finite state projection (FSP) method, called the diffusive FSP method, is introduced for the efficient and accurate simulation of diffusive transport. Reactions are handled by the stochastic simulation algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weighted stochastic simulation algorithm (wSSA) recently introduced by Kuwahara and Mura [J. Chem. Phys. 129, 165101 (2008)] is an innovative variation on the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). It enables one to estimate, with much less computational effort than was previously thought possible using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, the probability that a specified event will occur in a chemically reacting system within a specified time when that probability is very small. This paper presents some procedural extensions to the wSSA that enhance its effectiveness in practical applications. The paper also attempts to clarify some theoretical issues connected with the wSSA, including its connection to first passage time theory and its relation to the SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Inhomogeneous Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (ISSA) is a variant of the stochastic simulation algorithm in which the spatially inhomogeneous volume of the system is divided into homogeneous subvolumes, and the chemical reactions in those subvolumes are augmented by diffusive transfers of molecules between adjacent subvolumes. The ISSA can be prohibitively slow when the system is such that diffusive transfers occur much more frequently than chemical reactions. In this paper we present the Multinomial Simulation Algorithm (MSA), which is designed to, on the one hand, outperform the ISSA when diffusive transfer events outnumber reaction events, and on the other, to handle small reactant populations with greater accuracy than deterministic-stochastic hybrid algorithms. The MSA treats reactions in the usual ISSA fashion, but uses appropriately conditioned binomial random variables for representing the net numbers of molecules diffusing from any given subvolume to a neighbor within a prescribed distance. Simulation results illustrate the benefits of the algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the problem of simplifying chemical reaction networks by adroitly reducing the number of reaction channels and chemical species. The analysis adopts a discrete-stochastic point of view and focuses on the model reaction set S1≤=≥S2→S3, whose simplicity allows all the mathematics to be done exactly. The advantages and disadvantages of replacing this reaction set with a single S3-producing reaction are analyzed quantitatively using novel criteria for measuring simulation accuracy and simulation efficiency. It is shown that in all cases in which such a model reduction can be accomplished accurately and with a significant gain in simulation efficiency, a procedure called the slow-scale stochastic simulation algorithm provides a robust and theoretically transparent way of implementing the reduction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing tau-selection strategy, which was designed for explicit tau leaping, is here modified to apply to implicit tau leaping, allowing for longer steps when the system is stiff. Further, an adaptive strategy that identifies stiffness and automatically chooses between the explicit and the (new) implicit tau-selection methods to achieve better efficiency is proposed. Numerical testing demonstrates the advantages of the adaptive method for stiff systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is aimed at understanding what happens to the propensity functions (rates) of bimolecular chemical reactions when the volume occupied by the reactant molecules is not negligible compared to the containing volume of the system. For simplicity our analysis focuses on a one-dimensional gas of N hard-rod molecules, each of length l. Assuming these molecules are distributed randomly and uniformly inside the real interval [0,L] in a nonoverlapping way, and that they have Maxwellian distributed velocities, the authors derive an expression for the probability that two rods will collide in the next infinitesimal time dt. This probability controls the rate of any chemical reaction whose occurrence is initiated by such a collision. The result turns out to be a simple generalization of the well-known result for the point molecule case l=0: the system volume L in the formula for the propensity function in the point molecule case gets replaced by the “free volume” L-Nl. They confirm the result in a series of one-dimensional molecular dynamics simulations. Some possible wider implications of this result are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A general lattice Monte Carlo model is used for simulating the formation of supported lipid bilayers (SLBs) from vesicle solutions. The model, based on a previously published paper, consists of adsorption, decomposition, and lateral diffusion steps, and is derived from fundamental physical interactions and mass transport principles. The Monte Carlo simulation results are fit to experimental data at different vesicle bulk concentrations. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the process strongly depends on the bulk concentration C0, adsorption rate constant K, and all vesicle radii parameters. A measure of “quality of coverage” is proposed. By this measure, the quality of the formed bilayers is found to increase with vesicle bulk concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tau-leaping method of simulating the stochastic time evolution of a well-stirred chemically reacting system uses a Poisson approximation to take time steps that leap over many reaction events. Theory implies that tau leaping should be accurate so long as no propensity function changes its value “significantly” during any time step τ. Presented here is an improved procedure for estimating the largest value for τ that is consistent with this condition. This new τ-selection procedure is more accurate, easier to code, and faster to execute than the currently used procedure. The speedup in execution will be especially pronounced in systems that have many reaction channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The enzyme-catalyzed conversion of a substrate into a product is a common reaction motif in cellular chemical systems. In the three reactions that comprise this process, the intermediate enzyme-substrate complex is usually much more likely to decay into its original constituents than to produce a product molecule. This condition makes the reaction set mathematically “stiff.” We show here how the simulation of this stiff reaction set can be dramatically speeded up relative to the standard stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) by using a recently introduced procedure called the slow-scale SSA. The speedup occurs because the slow-scale SSA explicitly simulates only the relatively rare conversion reactions, skipping over occurrences of the other two less interesting but much more frequent reactions. We describe, explain, and illustrate this simulation procedure for the isolated enzyme-substrate reaction set, and then we show how the procedure extends to the more typical case in which the enzyme-substrate reactions occur together with other reactions and species. Finally, we explain the connection between this slow-scale SSA approach and the Michaelis–Menten [Biochem. Z. 49, 333 (1913)] formula, which has long been used in deterministic chemical kinetics to describe the enzyme-substrate reaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The explicit tau-leaping procedure attempts to speed up the stochastic simulation of a chemically reacting system by approximating the number of firings of each reaction channel during a chosen time increment τ as a Poisson random variable. Since the Poisson random variable can have arbitrarily large sample values, there is always the possibility that this procedure will cause one or more reaction channels to fire so many times during τ that the population of some reactant species will be driven negative. Two recent papers have shown how that unacceptable occurrence can be avoided by replacing the Poisson random variables with binomial random variables, whose values are naturally bounded. This paper describes a modified Poisson tau-leaping procedure that also avoids negative populations, but is easier to implement than the binomial procedure. The new Poisson procedure also introduces a second control parameter, whose value essentially dials the procedure from the original Poisson tau-leaping at one extreme to the exact stochastic simulation algorithm at the other; therefore, the modified Poisson procedure will generally be more accurate than the original Poisson procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reactions in real chemical systems often take place on vastly different time scales, with “fast” reaction channels firing very much more frequently than “slow” ones. These firings will be interdependent if, as is usually the case, the fast and slow reactions involve some of the same species. An exact stochastic simulation of such a system will necessarily spend most of its time simulating the more numerous fast reaction events. This is a frustratingly inefficient allocation of computational effort when dynamical stiffness is present, since in that case a fast reaction event will be of much less importance to the system’s evolution than will a slow reaction event. For such situations, this paper develops a systematic approximate theory that allows one to stochastically advance the system in time by simulating the firings of only the slow reaction events. Developing an effective strategy to implement this theory poses some challenges, but as is illustrated here for two simple systems, when those challenges can be overcome, very substantial increases in simulation speed can be realized. © 2005 American Institute of Physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tau-leaping methods have recently been proposed for the acceleration of discrete stochastic simulation of chemically reacting systems. This paper considers the numerical stability of these methods. The concept of stochastic absolute stability is defined, discussed, and applied to the following leaping methods: the explicit tau, implicit tau, and trapezoidal tau.© 2004 American Institute of Physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the different formulations of Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) [D. Gillespie, J. Phys. Chem. 81, 2340 (1977)] with respect to computational efficiency, and propose an optimization to improve the efficiency of the direct method. Based on careful timing studies and an analysis of the time-consuming operations, we conclude that for most practical problems the optimized direct method is the most efficient formulation of SSA. This is in contrast to the widely held belief that Gibson and Bruck’s next reaction method [M. Gibson and J. Bruck, J. Phys. Chem. A 104, 1876 (2000)] is the best way to implement the SSA for large systems. Our analysis explains the source of the discrepancy. © 2004 American Institute of Physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show how stiffness manifests itself in the simulation of chemical reactions at both the continuous-deterministic level and the discrete-stochastic level. Existing discrete stochastic simulation methods, such as the stochastic simulation algorithm and the (explicit) tau-leaping method, are both exceedingly slow for such systems. We propose an implicit tau-leaping method that can take much larger time steps for many of these problems. © 2003 American Institute of Physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In numerically simulating the time evolution of a well-stirred chemically reacting system, the recently introduced “tau-leaping” procedure attempts to accelerate the exact stochastic simulation algorithm by using a special Poisson approximation to leap over sequences of noncritical reaction events. Presented here is an improved procedure for determining the maximum leap size for a specified degree of accuracy. © 2003 American Institute of Physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations of independently oscillating agents can sometimes synchronize. In the context of animal societies, conspicuous synchronization of activity is known in some social insects. However, the causes of variation in synchrony within and between species have received little attention. We repeatedly assessed the short-term activity cycle of ant colonies (Temnothorax rugatulus) and monitored the movements of individual workers and queens within nests. We detected persistent differences between colonies in the waveform properties of their collective activity oscillations, with some colonies consistently oscillating much more erratically than others. We further demonstrate that colony crowding reduces the rhythmicity (i.e. the consistent timing) of oscillations. Workers in both erratic and rhythmic colonies spend less time active than completely isolated workers, but workers in erratic colonies oscillate out of phase with one another. We further show that the queen's absence can impair the ability of colonies to synchronize worker activity and that behavioral differences between queens are linked with the waveform properties of their societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The link between single-cell variation and population-level fate choices lacks a mechanistic explanation despite extensive observations of gene expression and epigenetic variation among individual cells. Here, we found that single human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) have different and biased differentiation potentials toward either neuroectoderm or mesendoderm depending on their G1 lengths before the onset of differentiation. Single-cell variation in G1 length operates in a dynamic equilibrium that establishes a G1 length probability distribution for a population of hESCs and predicts differentiation outcome toward neuroectoderm or mesendoderm lineages. Although sister stem cells generally share G1 lengths, a variable proportion of cells have asymmetric G1 lengths, which maintains the population dispersion. Environmental Wingless-INT (WNT) levels can control the G1 length distribution, apparently as a means of priming the fate of hESC populations once they undergo differentiation. As a downstream mechanism, global 5-hydroxymethylcytosine levels are regulated by G1 length and thereby link G1 length to differentiation outcomes of hESCs. Overall, our findings suggest that intrapopulation heterogeneity in G1 length underlies the pluripotent differentiation potential of stem cell populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) is the master clock of the brain. It is a network of neurons that behave like biological oscillators, capable of synchronizing and maintaining daily rhythms. The detailed structure of this network is still unknown, and the role that the connectivity pattern plays in the network’s ability to generate robust oscillations has yet to be fully elucidated. In recent work, we used an information theory–based technique to infer the structure of the functional network for synchronization, from bioluminescence reporter data. Here, we propose a computational method to determine the directionality of the connections between the neurons. We find that most SCN neurons have a similar number of incoming connections, but the number of outgoing connections per neuron varies widely, with the most highly connected neurons residing preferentially in the core. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The onset of acute traumatic coagulopathy in trauma patients exacerbates hemorrhaging and dramatically increases mortality. The disease is characterized by increased localized bleeding, and the mechanism for its onset is not yet known. We propose that the fibrinolytic response, specifically the release of tissue-plasminogen activator (t-PA), within vessels of different sizes leads to a variable susceptibility to local coagulopathy through hyperfibrinolysis which can explain many of the clinical observations in the early stages from severely injured coagulopathic patients. We use a partial differential equation model to examine the consequences of vessel geometry and extent of injury on fibrinolysis profiles. In addition, we simulate the efficacy of tranexamic acid treatment on coagulopathy initiated through endothelial t-PA release, and are able to reproduce the time-sensitive nature of the efficacy of this treatment as observed in clinical studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The localization (or polarization) of proteins on the membrane during the mating of budding yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) is an important model system for understanding simple pattern formation within cells. While there are many existing mathematical models of polarization, for both budding and mating, there are still many aspects of this process that are not well understood. In this paper we set out to elucidate the effect that the geometry of the cell can have on the dynamics of certain models of polarization. Specifically, we look at several spatial stochastic models of Cdc42 polarization that have been adapted from published models, on a variety of tip-shaped geometries, to replicate the shape change that occurs during the growth of the mating projection. We show here that there is a complex interplay between the dynamics of polarization and the shape of the cell. Our results show that while models of polarization can generate a stable polarization cap, its localization at the tip of mating projections is unstable, with the polarization cap drifting away from the tip of the projection in a geometry dependent manner. We also compare predictions from our computational results to experiments that observe cells with projections of varying lengths, and track the stability of the polarization cap. Lastly, we examine one model of actin polarization and show that it is unlikely, at least for the models studied here, that actin dynamics and vesicle traffic are able to overcome this effect of geometry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian inference is employed to precisely evaluate single crystal elastic properties of novel γ-γ′ Co- and CoNi-based superalloys from simple and non-destructive resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (RUS) measurements. Nine alloys from three Co-, CoNi-, and Ni-based alloy classes were evaluated in the fully aged condition, with one alloy per class also evaluated in the solution heat-treated condition. Comparisons are made between the elastic properties of the three alloy classes and among the alloys of a single class, with the following trends observed. A monotonic rise in the c44 (shear) elastic constant by a total of 12 pct is observed between the three alloy classes as Co is substituted for Ni. Elastic anisotropy (A) is also increased, with a large majority of the nearly 13 pct increase occurring after Co becomes the dominant constituent. Together the five CoNi alloys, with Co:Ni ratios from 1:1 to 1.5:1, exhibited remarkably similar properties with an average A 1.8 pct greater than the Ni-based alloy CMSX-4. Custom code demonstrating a substantial advance over previously reported methods for RUS inversion is also reported here for the first time. CmdStan-RUS is built upon the open-source probabilistic programing language of Stan and formulates the inverse problem using Bayesian methods. Bayesian posterior distributions are efficiently computed with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), while initial parameterization is randomly generated from weakly informative prior distributions. Remarkably robust convergence behavior is demonstrated across multiple independent HMC chains in spite of initial parameterization often very far from actual parameter values. Experimental procedures are substantially simplified by allowing any arbitrary misorientation between the specimen and crystal axes, as elastic properties and misorientation are estimated simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]