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During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 23 000 to 19 000 years ago), the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) covered the central chain of the Andes between ∼ 38 to 55° S. Existing paleoclimate evidence – mostly derived from glacial landforms – suggests that maximum ice sheet expansions in the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere were not synchronized. However, large uncertainties still exist in the timing of the onset of regional deglaciation and its major drivers. Here we present an ensemble of numerical simulations of the PIS during the LGM. We assess the skill of paleoclimate model products in reproducing the range of atmospheric conditions needed to enable an ice sheet growth in concordance with geomorphological and geochronological evidence. The resulting best-fit climate product is then combined with records from southern South America offshore sediment cores and Antarctic ice cores to drive transient simulations throughout the last 70 ka using a glacial index approach. Our analysis suggests a strong dependence of the PIS geometry on near-surface air temperature forcing. Most ensemble members underestimate the ice cover in the northern part of Patagonia, while tending to expand beyond its constrained eastern boundaries. We largely attribute these discrepancies between the model-based ice geometries and geological evidence to the low resolution of paleoclimate models and their prescribed ice mask. In the southernmost sector, evidence suggests full glacial conditions during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3, ∼ 59 400 to 27 800 years ago), followed by a warming trend towards MIS2 (∼ 27 800 to 14 700 years ago). However, in northern Patagonia, this deglacial trend is absent, indicating a relatively consistent signal throughout MIS3 and MIS2. Notably, Antarctic cores do not reflect a glacial history consistent with the geochronological observations. Therefore, investigations of the glacial history of the PIS should take into account southern midlatitude records to capture effectively its past climatic variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 23,000 to 19,000 years ago), the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) covered the central chain of the Andes between ~ 38° S to 55° S. Existing paleoclimatic evidence - mostly derived from glacial landforms - suggests that maximum ice sheet expansions in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres were not synchronized. However, large uncertainties still exist in the timing of the onset of regional deglaciation as well as its major drivers. Here we present an ensemble of numerical simulations of the PIS during the LGM. Our aim is to assess the ability of paleoclimate model products to reproduce the range of atmospheric conditions needed to enable the ice sheet growth in concordance with geomorphological and geochronological evidence. The resulting ensemble is then used as a guideline for the evaluation of the PMIP3 and PMIP4 model performance across different sectors of the former PIS. Our analysis suggests a strong dependence of the PIS geometry on near-surface air temperature forcing. All the ensemble members driven by PMIP products are not able to reproduce the reconstructed ice cover in the northern part of Patagonia. In contrast, the modelled PIS tends to expand beyond its constrained boundaries in south-eastern Patagonia. We largely attribute these discrepancies between the model-based ice geometries and geological evidence to the low resolution of paleoclimate models. We conclude that among all tested climate forcings, the PMIP4 climate models INM-CM4-8 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR produce the necessary conditions for ice sheet growth across Patagonia. It should be kept in mind that this analysis is based only on the evaluation of the modelled ice sheet extent because geological constraints on the former ice thickness are still lacking. Nevertheless, our analysis suggests that a realistic PIS geometry at the LGM can be reproduced only if the complex topographic features of the Andes are properly resolved by climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Western Norway hosts many glacierized drainage basins with complex terrain and local climate. These drainage basins face challenges related to long-term planning of hydropower production and flood risk mitigation under global warming. To enable a forward vision of such efforts, bias-corrected outputs from state-of-the-art regional climate models and reanalysis provide climatic forcing for impact simulations. We utilize a distributed, process-based snow evolution model with a daily temporal and 100m *100m spatial resolution to investigate the applicability of different bias-corrected climate forcing data for multidecadal reconstructions of glacier surface mass balance and surface runoff regimes in western Norway. These simulations are driven by climatic forcing from the bias-corrected N0RA10 hindcast in 2000-2014, which has been produced specifically for western Norway and treated as a benchmark dataset, as well as ten bias-corrected and uncorrected CORDEX outputs under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios in 2000-2020. Downscaled drainage basin-wide air temperature, precipitation, and glacier-wide surface mass balance are then validated against observations. The variables mentioned above produced by the benchmark simulation match available observations well. The mean annual surface mass balance of glaciers in most glacierized basins is negative in 2001-2014, and its evolution is mainly correlated with trends in annual snowfall. There is a general negative west-to-east gradient in seasonal and annual specific runoff (in gigatons per unit area per year), which peaks between 2005 and 2008 in most drainage basins. Snow meltwater is the largest contributor to both seasonal and annual runoff in all drainage basins except for two of the westernmost ones. Drainage basins with denser glacier coverage turn out to have a later peak runoff discharge date. The correction applied to the CORDEX forcing reversed the cold bias in the original datasets, while the agreement between bias-corrected and observed precipitation rates varies strongly from basin to basin. As a result, simulations driven by bias-corrected CORDEX datasets produce lower annual surface mass balance in the most and least glacierized drainage basins, i.e., Askorelva and Drammensvassdraget drainage basins, respectively. They all produce more specific runoff in the Askorelva drainage basin and less in the Drammensvassdraget drainage basin both seasonally and annually, with only a few exceptions. We conclude that the identified errors will likely be inherited by the results of the future projections, casting doubts on the applicability of bias- corrected CORDEX forcing to directly drive local-scale projections and the modeled outputs in developing climate change adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical models predict that discharge from the polar ice sheets will become the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. However, the predicted amount of ice discharge and associated thinning depends on how well ice sheet models reproduce glaciological processes, such as ice flow in regions of large topographic relief, where ice flows around bedrock summits (i.e. nunataks) and through outlet glaciers. The ability of ice sheet models to capture long-term ice loss is best tested by comparing model simulations against geological data. A benchmark for such models is ice surface elevation change, which has been constrained empirically at nunataks and along margins of outlet glaciers using cosmogenic exposure dating. However, the usefulness of this approach in quantifying ice sheet thinning relies on how well such records represent changes in regional ice surface elevation. Here we examine how ice surface elevations respond to the presence of strong topographic relief that acts as an obstacle by modelling ice flow around and between idealised nunataks during periods of imposed ice sheet thinning. We find that, for realistic Antarctic conditions, a single nunatak can exert an impact on ice thickness over 20 km away from its summit, with its most prominent effect being a local increase (decrease) of the ice surface elevation of hundreds of metres upstream (downstream) of the obstacle. A direct consequence of this differential surface response for cosmogenic exposure dating is a delay in the time of bedrock exposure upstream relative to downstream of a nunatak summit. A nunatak elongated transversely to ice flow is able to increase ice retention and therefore impose steeper ice surface gradients, while efficient ice drainage through outlet glaciers produces gentler gradients. Such differences, however, are not typically captured by continent-wide ice sheet models due to their coarse grid resolutions. Their inability to capture site-specific surface elevation changes appears to be a key reason for the observed mismatches between the timing of ice-free conditions from cosmogenic exposure dating and model simulations. We conclude that a model grid refinement over complex topography and information about sample position relative to ice flow near the nunatak are necessary to improve data–model comparisons of ice surface elevation and therefore the ability of models to simulate ice discharge in regions of large topographic relief. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 ∘ C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in Siberia is currently receiving a lot of attention because large permafrost-covered areas could provide a strong positive feedback to global warming through the release of carbon that has been sequestered there on glacial–interglacial timescales. Geological evidence and climate model experiments show that the Siberian region also played an exceptional role during glacial periods. The region that is currently known for its harsh cold climate did not experience major glaciations during the last ice age, including its severest stages around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). On the contrary, it is thought that glacial summer temperatures were comparable to the present day. However, evidence of glaciation has been found for several older glacial periods. We combine LGM experiments from the second and third phases of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2 and PMIP3) with sensitivity experiments using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Together, these climate model experiments reveal that the intermodel spread in LGM summer temperatures in Siberia is much larger than in any other region of the globe and suggest that temperatures in Siberia are highly susceptible to changes in the imposed glacial boundary conditions, the included feedbacks and processes, and to the model physics of the different components of the climate model. We find that changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport drive strong local snow and vegetation feedbacks and that this combination explains the susceptibility of LGM summer temperatures in Siberia. This suggests that a small difference between two glacial periods in terms of climate, ice buildup or their respective evolution towards maximum glacial conditions can lead to strongly divergent summer temperatures in Siberia, allowing for the buildup of an ice sheet during some glacial periods, while during others, above-freezing summer temperatures preclude a multi-year snowpack from forming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in Siberia is currently receiving a lot of attention as large permafrost-covered areas could provide a strong positive feedback to global warming through the release of carbon that has been sequestered there on glacial-interglacial time scales. Geological evidence and climate model experiments show that the Siberian region also played an exceptional role during glacial periods. The region that is currently known for its harsh cold climate did not experience major glaciations during the last ice age, including its severest stages around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). On the contrary, it is thought that glacial summer temperatures were comparable to present-day. We combine LGM experiments from the second and third phases of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2 and PMIP3) with sensitivity experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Together these climate model experiments reveal that the intermodel spread in LGM summer temperatures in Siberia is much larger than in any other region of the globe and suggest that temperatures in Siberia are highly susceptible to changes in the imposed glacial boundary conditions, the included feedbacks and processes, and to the model physics of the different components of the climate model. We find that changes in the large-scale atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport drive strong local snow and vegetation feedbacks and that this combination explains the susceptibility of LGM summer temperatures in Siberia. This suggests that a small difference between two glacial periods in terms of climate, ice buildup or their respective evolution towards maximum glacial conditions, can lead to strongly divergent summer temperatures in Siberia, that are sufficiently strong to allow for the buildup of an ice sheet during some glacial periods, while during others, above-freezing summer temperatures will preclude a multi-year snow-pack from forming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. In this study, we analyze the influence of the thermal and density structure of the upper mantle on the lithospheric stress field and topography. We use a 3-D lithosphere-asthenosphere numerical model with power-law rheology, coupled to a spectral mantle flow code at 300 km depth. Our results are validated against theWorld Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observationbased residual topography. We derive the upper mantle thermal structure from either a heat flow model combined with a seafloor age model (TM1) or a global S-wave velocity model (TM2). We show that lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km have a limited influence on the modeled horizontal stress field as opposed to the resulting dynamic topography that appears more sensitive to such heterogeneities. The modeled stress field directions, using only the mantle heterogeneities below 300 km, are not perturbed much when the effects of lithosphere and crust above 300 km are added. In contrast, modeled stress magnitudes and dynamic topography are to a greater extent controlled by the upper mantle density structure. After correction for the chemical depletion of continents, the TM2 model leads to a much better fit with the observed residual topography giving a good correlation of 0.51 in continents, but this correction leads to no significant improvement of the fit between the WSM2016 and the resulting lithosphere stresses. In continental regions with abundant heat flow data, TM1 results in relatively small angular misfits. For example, in western Europe the misfit between the modeled and observation-based stress is 18.3°. Our findings emphasize that the relative contributions coming from shallow and deep mantle dynamic forces are quite different for the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice-shelf basal melting is the largest contributor to the negative mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, current implementations of ice/ocean interactions in ice-sheet models disagree with the distribution of sub-shelf melt and freezing rates revealed by recent observational studies. Here we present a novel combination of a continental-scale ice flow model and a calibration technique to derive the spatial distribution of basal melting and freezing rates for the whole Antarctic ice-shelf system. The modelled ice-sheet equilibrium state is evaluated against topographic and velocity observations. Our high-resolution (10-km spacing) simulation predicts an equilibrium ice-shelf basal mass balance of −1648.7 Gt a−1 that increases to −1917.0 Gt a−1 when the observed ice-shelf thinning rates are taken into account. Our estimates reproduce the complexity of the basal mass balance of Antarctic ice shelves, providing a reference for parameterisations of sub-shelf ocean/ice interactions in continental ice-sheet models. We perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of variations in the model set-up, showing that the retrieved estimates of basal melting and freezing rates are largely insensitive to changes in the internal model parameters, but respond strongly to a reduction of model resolution and the uncertainty in the input datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Near-surface temperature is among the most important external forcings for ice-sheet models studies. It defines where and how much snow and ice is lost from an ice sheet through surface melt. In currently glaciated areas such as Greenland and Antarctica, an increasing number of near-surface temperature measurements are available from automatic weather stations (Steffen and others, 1996; Ahlstrøm and others, 2008; van As and others, 2014). Owing to the fact that ice sheets typically have smooth geometries and large horizontal dimensions, the overlying atmospheric conditions are characterized by smooth near-surface temperature fields, which are, to a great extent, modulated by ice-surface elevation. This enables a spatial interpolation between in situ measurements using an intrinsic linear relation between the surface elevation and near-surface temperature, which is commonly termed a slope lapse rate (here and in the following the slope lapse rate is defined to be positive, if the nearsurface temperature decreases with elevation) (Ritz and others in 1997; Fausto and others in 2009). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shallow ice approximation (SIA) is commonly used in ice-sheet models to simplify the force balance equations within the ice. However, the SIA cannot adequately reproduce the dynamics of the fast flowing ice streams usually found at the margins of ice sheets. To overcome this limitation, recent studies have introduced heuristic hybrid combinations of the SIA and the shelfy stream approximation. Here, we implement four different hybrid schemes into a model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to compare their performance under present-day conditions. For each scheme, the model is calibrated using an iterative technique to infer the spatial variability in basal sliding parameters. Model results are validated against topographic and velocity data. Our analysis shows that the iterative technique compensates for the differences between the schemes, producing similar ice-sheet configurations through quantitatively different results of the sliding coefficient calibration. Despite this we observe a robust agreement in the reconstructed patterns of basal sliding parameters. We exchange the calibrated sliding parameter distributions between the schemes to demonstrate that the results of the model calibration cannot be straightforwardly transferred to models based on different approximations of ice dynamics. However, easily adaptable calibration techniques for the potential distribution of basal sliding coefficients can be implemented into ice models to overcome such incompatibility, as shown in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After more than a century of geological research, the Cordilleran ice sheet of North America remains among the least understood in terms of its former extent, volume, and dynamics. Because of the mountainous topography on which the ice sheet formed, geological studies have often had only local or regional relevance and shown such a complexity that ice-sheet-wide spatial reconstructions of advance and retreat patterns are lacking. Here we use a numerical ice sheet model calibrated against field-based evidence to attempt a quantitative reconstruction of the Cordilleran ice sheet history through the last glacial cycle. A series of simulations is driven by time-dependent temperature offsets from six proxy records located around the globe. Although this approach reveals large variations in model response to evolving climate forcing, all simulations produce two major glaciations during marine oxygen isotope stages 4 (62.2-56.9 ka) and 2 (23.2-16.9 ka). The timing of glaciation is better reproduced using temperature reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores than from regional oceanic sediment cores. During most of the last glacial cycle, the modelled ice cover is discontinuous and restricted to high mountain areas. However, widespread precipitation over the Skeena Mountains favours the persistence of a central ice dome throughout the glacial cycle. It acts as a nucleation centre before the Last Glacial Maximum and hosts the last remains of Cordilleran ice until the middle Holocene (6.7 ka). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]