Search

Earthquake hazard analyses rely on seismogenic source models. These are designed in various fashions, such as point sources or area sources, but the most effective is the three-dimensional representation of geological faults. We here refer to such models as fault sources. This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), which was one of the primary input datasets of the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020. The EFSM20 compilation was entirely based on reusable data from existing active fault regional compilations that were first blended and harmonized and then augmented by a set of derived parameters. These additional parameters were devised to enable users to formulate earthquake rate forecasts based on a seismic-moment balancing approach. EFSM20 considers two main categories of seismogenic faults: crustal faults and subduction systems, which include the subduction interface and intraslab faults. The compiled dataset covers an area from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge to the Caucasus and from northern Africa to Iceland. It includes 1248 crustal faults spanning a total length of ∼95100 km and four subduction systems, namely the Gibraltar, Calabrian, Hellenic, and Cyprus arcs, for a total length of ∼2120 km. The model focuses on an area encompassing a buffer of 300 km around all European countries (except for Overseas Countries and Territories) and a maximum of 300 km depth for the subducting slabs. All the parameters required to develop a seismic source model for earthquake hazard analysis were determined for crustal faults and subduction systems. A statistical distribution of relevant seismotectonic parameters, such as faulting mechanisms, slip rates, moment rates, and prospective maximum magnitudes, is presented and discussed to address unsettled points in view of future updates and improvements. The dataset, identified by the DOI https://doi.org/10.13127/efsm20 (Basili et al., 2022), is distributed as machine-readable files using open standards (Open Geospatial Consortium). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the most recent and up-to-date assessment of seismic hazard for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The new model, publicly released in May 2022, incorporates refined and cross-border harmonized earthquake catalogues, homogeneous tectonic zonation, updated active fault datasets and geological information, complex subduction sources, updated area source models, a smoothed seismicity model with an adaptive kernel optimized within each tectonic region, and a novel ground motion characteristic model. ESHM20 supersedes the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13; Woessner et al., 2015) and provides full sets of hazard outputs such as hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The model provides two informative hazard maps that will serve as a reference for the forthcoming revision of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8) and provides input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe (Crowley et al., 2021). ESHM20 will continue to evolve and act as a key resource for supporting earthquake preparedness and resilience throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region under the umbrella of the European Facilities for Seismic Hazard and Risk consortium (EFEHR Consortium). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the most recent and up-to-date assessment of seismic hazard for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The new model, publicly released in May 2022, incorporates refined and cross-border harmonised earthquake catalogues, homogeneous tectonic zonation, updated active faults datasets and geological information, complex subduction sources, updated area source models, a smoothed seismicity model with an adaptive kernel optimised within each tectonic region and a novel ground motion characteristic model. ESHM20 supersedes the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13, Wössner et al 2015) and provides full sets of hazard outputs such as hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The model provides two informative hazard maps that will serve as a reference for the forthcoming revision of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8) and provides input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe (Crowley et al., 2021). ESHM20 will continue to evolve and act as a key resource for supporting earthquake preparedness and resilience throughout Euro-Mediterranean region under the umbrella of the European Facilities for Seismic Hazard and Risk Consortium (EFEHR Consortium). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the most recent and up-to-date assessment of seismic hazard for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The new model, publicly released in May 2022, incorporates refined and cross-border harmonized earthquake catalogues, homogeneous tectonic zonation, updated active faults datasets and geological information, complex subduction sources, updated area source models, a smoothed seismicity model with an adaptive kernel optimized within each tectonic region and a novel ground motion characteristic model. ESHM20 supersedes the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13, Wössner et al 2015) and provides full sets of hazard outputs such as hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The model provides two informative hazard maps that will serve as a reference for the forthcoming revision of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8) and provides input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe (Crowley et al., 2021). ESHM20 will continue to evolve and act as a key resource for supporting earthquake preparedness and resilience throughout Euro-Mediterranean region under the umbrella of the European Facilities for Seismic Hazard and Risk Consortium (EFEHR Consortium). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake hazard analyses rely on the availability of seismogenic source models. These are designed in different fashions, such as point sources or area sources, but the most effective is the three-dimensional representation of geological faults. We here refer to such models as fault sources. This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), which formed the basis for one of the primary input datasets of the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020. The EFSM20 compilation was entirely based on reusable data from existing active fault regional compilations that were first blended and harmonized and then augmented by a set of derived parameters. These additional parameters were devised to enable users to formulate earthquake rate forecasts based on a seismic-moment balancing approach. EFSM20 considers two main categories of seismogenic faults: crustal faults and subduction systems. The compiled dataset covers an area from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge to the Caucasus and from northern Africa to Iceland. It includes 1,248 crustal faults spanning a total length of ~95,100 km and four subduction systems, namely the Gibraltar, Calabrian, Hellenic, and Cyprus Arcs. The model focuses on an area encompassing a buffer of 300 km around all European countries (except for Overseas Countries and Territories, OTCs) and a maximum of 300 km depth for the subducting slabs. All the parameters required to develop a seismic source model for earthquake hazard analysis were determined for crustal faults and subduction systems. A statistical distribution of relevant seismotectonic parameters, such as faulting mechanisms, slip rates, moment rates, and prospective maximum magnitudes, is presented and discussed to address unsettled points in view of future updates and improvements. The dataset, identified by the DOI https://doi.org/10.13127/efsm20, is distributed as machine-readable files using open standards (Open Geospatial Consortium). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake risk can be quantified in terms of the estimated numbers of human casualties and of damaged buildings as well as the monetary losses. The information required for the assessment of earthquake risk in a given region includes the expected level of ground shaking intensity (i.e., the seismic hazard), inventory data for building stock at risk, identification of predominant building typologies and of their vulnerability characteristics, and spatial distribution of number of inhabitants. This study presents an indicative assessment of earthquake risk associated with the building stock in Muscat, the capital city of the Sultanate of Oman. For this purpose, building inventory and demographic data for the city are compiled in GIS environment. The buildings are classified to identify their damageability/vulnerability characteristics, and predominant building typologies are determined. For the estimation of casualties, Muscat population data are further analyzed to calculate number of occupants in the exposed building stock. Spectral acceleration-displacement based damage estimation methodology is implemented for risk calculations. Site-specific ground motions in terms spectral accelerations obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for 475- and 2475-year return periods are considered for the representation of earthquake demand in damage analyses. Assessment of damage to buildings and estimation of casualties are obtained using analytical fragility relationships and building damage related casualty-vulnerability models, respectively. Earthquake risk maps illustrating the spatial distribution of number of damaged buildings at different damage states are presented for the considered levels of seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismic zoning map of Turkey that is used in connection with the national seismic design code (versions issued both in 1997 and 2007) is based on a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted more than 20 years ago (Gülkan et al. in En son verilere göre hazırlanan Türkiye deprem bölgeleri haritası, Report No: METU/EERC 93-1, 1993). In line with the efforts for the update of the seismic design code, the need aroused for an updated seismic hazard map, incorporating recent data and state-of-the-art methodologies and providing ground motion parameters required for the construction of the design spectra stipulated by the new Turkish Earthquake Design Code. Supported by AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey), a project has been conducted for the country scale assessment of the seismic hazard by probabilistic methods. The present paper describes the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted in connection with this project, incorporating in an area source model, all recently compiled data on seismicity and active faulting, and using a set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations, for both active shallow crustal and subduction regimes, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region. The area sources delineated in the model are fully parameterized in terms of maximum magnitude, depth distribution, predominant strike and dip angles and mechanism of possible ruptures. Resulting ground motion distributions are quantified and presented for PGA and 5 % damped spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 and 1.0 s, associated with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The full set of seismic hazard curves was also made available for the hazard computation sites. The second part of the study, which is based on a fault source and smoothed seismicity model is covered in Demircioglu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, (2016). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project 'Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe' (SHARE, 2009-2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the 'Global Earthquake Model' initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article summarizes a recent study in the framework of the Global Earth model (GEM) and the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) project to establish the new catalog of seismicity for the Middle East, using all historical (pre-1900), early and modern instrumental events up to 2006. According to different seismicity, which depends on geophysical, geological, tectonic, and seismicity data, this region is subdivided to nine subregions, consisting of Alborz-Azerbaijan, Afghanistan-Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Caucasus, Central Iran, Kopeh-Dagh, Makran, Zagros, and Turkey (Eastern Anatolia; after 30° E). After omitting the duplicate events, aftershocks, and foreshocks by using the Gruenthal method, and uniform all magnitude to Mw scale, 28,244 main events remain for the new catalog of Middle East from 1250 B.C. through 2006. The magnitude of completeness ( Mc) was determined as 4.9 for five out of nine subregions, where the least values of Mc were found to be 4.2. The threshold of Mc is around 5.5, 5.0, 4.5, and 4.0, for the time after 1950, 1963, 1975, and 2000, respectively. The average of teleseismic depths in all regions is less than 15 km. Totally, majority of depth for Kopeh-Dagh and Central Iran, Zagros, and Alborz-Azerbaijan, approximately, is 15, 13, and 11 km and for Afghanistan-Pakistan, Caucasus, Makran, Turkey (after 30° E), and Saudi Arabia is about 9 km. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A methodology and software package entitled Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) was developed for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro- Mediterranean region. The work was carried out under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 project entitled Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology (NERIES). The ELER methodology anticipates: 1) finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismo-tectonic data base; 2) estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region specific ground motion prediction models, bias-correcting the ground motion estimations with strong ground motion data, if available; 3) estimation of the spatial distribution of site-corrected ground motion parameters using regional geology database using appropriate amplification models; and 4) estimation of the losses and uncertainties at various orders of sophistication (buildings, casualties). The multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships which are coded into ELER. The present paper provides brief information on the methodology of ELER and provides an example application with the recent major earthquake that hit the Van province in the east of Turkey on 23 October 2011 with moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.2. For this earthquake, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) provided almost real time estimations in terms of building damage and casualty distribution using ELER. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter from the author of the article "Recent Developments of the Middle East Catalog," which appeared in the "Journal of Seismology," is presented.

The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled “Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES”. This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For almost real-time estimation of the losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region, the Joint Research Area-3 (JRA-3) component of the European Union (EU) Project “Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology - NERIES” foresees (at several levels of sophistication): Finding the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismotectonic data base; estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters; correlation/verifyication/enrichment of the estimated ground shaking information with the available on-line strong motion data; and estimation of physical damage and casualty distributions. These LossMaps will provide the required vital information within minutes after an earthquake to European emergency response agencies, in a manner similar to the United States Geological Survey (USGS)'s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. A methodology that incorporates the regional dependencies and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of elements subjected to the hazard, and the vulnerability relationships is under preparation with researchers from Imperial College, NORSAR and ETH-Zurich. A pilot application is established for Turkey that encompasses the gridded earthquake source, Quaternary, Tertiary, Mesozoic (QTM) geological classification and physical and demographic inventory mapping for the whole country. Within the scope of this study, loss estimations were computed for the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake using several approaches and comparisons made with observed values. The LossMap tool will be available for the first estimation of damage immediately after an earthquake in Turkey by the end of 2007 and for the whole Euro-Med region by the end of 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]