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Population dynamics can be highly variable in the face of environmental heterogeneity, and understanding this variation is central in the study of ecology. Robust management decisions require that we understand how populations respond to management at a range of scales, and under a broad suite of conditions. Population models are potentially valuable tools in addressing this challenge. However, without adequate data, models can fail to produce useful results. Populations of arable weeds are particularly problematic in this respect, as they are widespread and their dynamics are extremely variable. Owing to the inherent cost of collecting data, most studies of plant population dynamics are derived from localized experiments under a small range of environmental conditions, limiting the extent to which variance in population dynamics can be measured. Density‐structured models provide a route to rapid, large‐scale analysis of population dynamics, and can expand the scale of ecological models that are directly tied to data. Here we extend previous density‐structured models to include environmental heterogeneity, variation in management, and to account for inter‐population variation. We develop, parameterize, and test hierarchical density‐structured models for a common agricultural weed, black‐grass (Alopecurus myosuroides). We model the dynamics of this species in response to crop management, using survey data gathered over 4 yr from 364 fields across a network of 45 UK farms. We show that hierarchical density‐structured models provide a substantial improvement over their nonhierarchical counterparts. Using these models, we demonstrate that several alternative crop rotations are effective in reducing weed densities. Rotations with high wheat prevalence exhibit the most severe infestations, and diverse rotations generally have lower weed densities. However, a key outcome is that in many cases the effect of crop rotation is small compared to the high variability arising from spatiotemporal heterogeneity. This result highlights the need to monitor and model population dynamics across large spatial and temporal scales in order to account for variation in the drivers of plant dynamics. Our framework for data collection and modeling provides a means to achieve this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite much research over the past 30 years, there is still little general understanding of how the outcomes of interactions vary along environmental gradients, particularly at large geographic scales. A simple expectation is that decreasing environmental quality should reduce densities of competitors and hence the effects of competition should weaken in poorer environments. A counterintuitive consequence is that associations between densities of competitors might change from negative to positive as environments decrease in quality. Here we test these predictions in a set of vascular plant communities where perennial species share space and resources with less competitive annuals. We surveyed nine gray dune communities annually for 5 years along a cross-European latitudinal gradient of habitat quality. We find that densities of annual and perennial species are negatively correlated at the high-quality end of the gradient, while at the low-quality end, guild densities are uncorrelated or positively correlated, consistent with a weakening of competition linked to increasing environmental limitations. Our results suggest that even simple interactions can give rise to nonobvious changes in species associations along environmental gradients. They highlight that understanding the outcome of species interactions may require explicit characterization of their changing intensity with environmental quality and that the factors limiting species' codistribution can vary along environmental gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses biodiversity's neutral theory showing differentness in several species. Topics include evolutionary adaptation showing lumps of neutral coexistence, use of Lotka-Volterra models for simulating lumps, and prediction of lumpiness in several species. Also included are details on the implication of emergent neutrality, functional redundancy among various creatures, and these species' impact on the ecosystem.

While species fulfill many different roles in ecosystems, it has been suggested that numerous species might actually share the same function in a near neutral way. So-far, however, it is unclear whether such functional redundancy really exists. We scrutinize this question using extensive data on the world’s 4168 species of diving beetles. We show that across the globe these animals have evolved towards a small number of regularly-spaced body sizes, and that locally co-existing species are either very similar in size or differ by at least 35%. Surprisingly, intermediate size differences (10–20%) are rare. As body-size strongly reflects functional aspects such as the food that these generalist predators can eat, these beetles thus form relatively distinct groups of functional look-a-likes. The striking global regularity of these patterns support the idea that a self-organizing process drives such species-rich groups to self-organize evolutionary into clusters where functional redundancy ensures resilience through an insurance effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theory of limiting similarity predicts that co-occurring species must be sufficiently different to coexist. Although this idea is a staple of community ecology, convincing empirical evidence has been scarce. Here we examine 34 subterranean beetle communities in arid inland Australia that share the same habitat type but have evolved in complete isolation over the past 5 million years. Although these communities come from a range of phylogenetic origins, we find that they have almost invariably evolved to share a similar size structure. The relative positions of coexisting species on the body size axis were significantly more regular across communities than would be expected by chance, with a size ratio, on average, of 1.6 between coexisting species. By contrast, species' absolute body sizes varied substantially from one community to the next. This suggests that self-organized spacing according to limiting-similarity theory, as opposed to evolution toward preexisting fixed niches, shaped the communities. Using a model starting from random sets of founder species, we demonstrate that the patterns are indeed consistent with evolutionary self-organization. For less isolated habitats, the same model predicts the coexistence of multiple species in each regularly spaced functional group. Limiting similarity, therefore, may also be compatible with the coexistence of many redundant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological models suggest that high diversity can be generated by purely niche-based, purely neutral or by a mixture of niche-based and neutral ecological processes. Here, we compare the degree to which four contrasting hypotheses for coexistence, ranging from niche-based to neutral, explain species richness along a body mass niche axis. We derive predictions from these hypotheses and confront them with species body-mass patterns in a highly sampled marine phytoplankton community. We find that these patterns are consistent only with a mechanism that combines niche and neutral processes, such as the emergent neutrality mechanism. In this work, we provide the first empirical evidence that a niche-neutral model can explain niche space occupancy pattern in a natural species-rich community. We suggest this class of model may be a useful hypothesis for the generation and maintenance of species diversity in other size-structured communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Formulated in 2006, Scheffer and van Nes' Emergent neutrality model predicts that competing species might self-organize into groups of species similar in their traits. Recently, Vergnon et al. showed that the model consistently generates multimodal species abundance distributions, in accordance with empirical data. Barabás et al. argue that Emergent neutrality model relies on unmodeled, 'hidden' species differences. They also suggest that an Emergent neutrality model explicitly integrating such differences may fail to generate multimodal species abundance distributions, while other models can robustly produce those patterns. Here we demonstrate that density dependence - the process deemed problematic by Barabás et al. - may permanently maintain groups of similar species without need for additional species differences. More broadly, we make it clear that density dependence is not the only likely mechanism that could allow the permanent coexistence of similar species in the Emergent neutrality framework. We welcome the finding that models other than Emergent neutrality can generate multimodal abundance distributions and we briefly discuss their novelty and relevance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]