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In this work, we propose a new model to evaluate the impact of potential governmental policy as a green transition to decarbonise road freight transport. Contrary to the classical literature on the topic, our approach employs a bilevel structure optimization scheme. More precisely, a single-leader-multi-follower (SLMF) model is developed, where the state represents the leader and the freight companies act as the followers. A carbon tax is the selected public policy to foster the shift to less polluting freight technologies. The model responds to an exogenously determined demand that must be satisfied by a fleet that remains constant in size through time. The aim is thus to determine to what extent the tax policy will generate an evolution of the fleets of the different companies towards greener vehicles. An additional scientific contribution of the paper is that the SLMF model is solved thanks to a new numerical approach based on the so-called SOS1 technique. The implementation is applied in the case of the Ecuadorian freight transport and the results highlight an interesting evolution of the fleets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today's global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario. Building decarbonization has an important role to play in achieving global emissions reductions targets. Here the authors find that stated policy scenarios are insufficient to achieve building decarbonization goals globally, while ambitious decarbonization scenarios are still not sufficient to achieve goals under the 1.5 °C scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ecuador's expansion plans for the power sector promote the exploitation of hydro power potential, natural gas and a small share of alternative renewable energies. In 2019, electricity generation reached 76.3% from hydroelectric power, 21.9% from thermal plants and 1.8% from other renewable resources. Although the power energy mix is mainly based on renewable technologies, the total energy demand is still dependent on fossil fuels, which is the case of the transport sector that alone accounted for 50% of the total primary energy consumed in the country. This paper analyzes the pathway to develop a clean and diversified electricity mix, covering the demand of three specific development levels of electric transportation. The linear optimization model (urbs) and the Ecuador Land Use and Energy Netwrok Analysis (ELENA) are used to optimize the expansion of the power system in the period from 2020 to 2050. Results show that reaching an electricity mix 100% based on renewable energies is possible and still cover a highly electrified transport that includes 47.8% of land passenger, and 5.9% of land freight transport. Therefore, the electrification of this sector is a viable alternative for the country to rely on its own energy resources, while reinforcing its future climate change mitigation commitments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) represent 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the AFOLU sector greenhouse gases must be dramatically reduced and eventually transformed to net negative CO 2 e within this century. The decarbonisation choices will have significant environmental, social and economic impacts, yet few analytical frameworks exist able to account holistically for AFOLU mitigation strategies and their sustainable development impacts in a way that combines advantages of global and national approaches to decarbonisation pathways. This paper proposes a pathway design framework for AFOLU decarbonisation strategies that can help governments set targets across four types of levers (increasing sequestration; improving the emissions efficiency of agriculture; incentivising dietary changes; and displacing fossil fuels with bioenergy) and help them navigate potential synergies and trade-offs with sustainable development objectives (notably food security, biodiversity preservation, poverty alleviation and job creation), in a way that facilitates co-construction and discussion with main stakeholders. • Key drivers of AFOLU decarbonisation include enhancing carbon sequestration, increasing bioenergy production, reducing emission intensity of agriculture and shifting diets. • The AFOLU transformation has trade-off and synergies with SDGs, including food security, biodiversity, and poverty and jobs. • A comprehensive AFOLU pathway must integrate all key drivers and key SDGs to capture the systemic elements of the sector. • We propose a method for designingcomprehensive AFOLU pathways, integrating all key drivers and key SDGs. • The pathway design framework emphasises co-construction and dialogue with key stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed for Ecuador, the so-called Ecuador Land Use and Energy Network Analysis model (ELENA). This model includes six distinctive sectors of the economy and displays the four geographic regions composing the country. The model enables to capture sectorial interactions, under a set of scenarios designed to evaluate the energy and land perspectives until 2050. The model is a crucial planning instrument to evaluate public policies, such as National Determined Contributions (NDC) and even more ambitious decarbonisation scenarios. Findings show that Ecuador's NDC are not aligned with the "well below" 2 °C target, committed in the Paris Agreement. Moreover, to achieve deep decarbonisation it is necessary to endorse disruptive strategies in which bioenergy and reforestation play a main role. To keep under the 1.5 °C temperature threshold above pre-industrial levels, Ecuador's energy matrix must be diversified with higher shares of low carbon technologies and electrification of energy end use in the transport, buildings and industry sectors. Biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biofuels could transform the energy sector in a CO 2 sink. • Ecuador Land Use and Energy Network Analysis model assess Energy and Land trade-offs. • Ecuador needs an integrated long-term strategy to comply with Paris Agreement goals. • Ecuadorian National Determined Contributions lack of long-term strategies. • Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could be the key of a low carbon emission future. • Reforestation is an alternative to costly and non-mature carbon capture and storage technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]