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The publication of The American Voter in 1960 revolutionized the study of American voting behavior. Its University of Michigan authors, Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes, were to share thousands of citations, but they were four different people, with different backgrounds, different personalities, and different career trajectories afterwards. This paper presents a chronological biography of The American Voter, from assembling the research team, through writing the book, to its aftermath, and ending with brief perspectives on each author. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The voting of Jews in the 2012 US presidential election is discussed in this article within the context of a recent reexamination of historical data on Jewish voting. Two Election-Night polls of Jews and the largest scientific survey of Jews to date make this detailed exploration of Jewish voting possible. Voting differences among Jews are analyzed, especially among major denominational movements. The role of American policy on the Middle East merits specific attention, particularly given concern about the potential Iranian nuclear threat to Israel. Explanations of Jewish liberalness and Democratic identification are considered, with a special focus on the role of social identity. A reluctance of Jewish conservatives to identify as Republicans is discussed as well as how Jewish conservatives react to economic and social issues. The possibility of a party realignment of Jews along generational and denominational lines is considered, as well as the impact of the Republican alliance with Evangelical Christians and the Tea Party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Party identification remained an important determinant of vote choice in the 2008 election. Indeed, the extent to which people voted according to their partisanship remained as exceptionally high as it had been in the 2004 election. The Democrats led in partisanship, with a greater lead than in 2004. The ANES four-wave panel survey shows that some change occurred in the Democratic direction during 2008. The Democrats gained among most population groups, with the exception of older citizens. Obama's victory margin was due to his carrying pure independents and the growth in strong Democrats as opposed to strong Republicans. Both candidates lost the votes of some partisans who disagreed with them ideologically. The rate of defection among major-party identifiers to the other major party hit post-1950 lows in 2004 and 2008, reflecting increased polarization in the electorate. The partisanship shifts of young people and Hispanics could portend realignment, although that depends on their satisfaction with the Obama administration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moral values are frequently invoked in election campaigns. Some past studies have taken into account the effect of moral traditionalism on voting. However, a related moral predisposition—moral judgment—may have greater effects, and not taking moral judgment into account may lead to underestimation of the importance of moral values in affecting people's attitudes. Two statewide surveys are analyzed to determine the added effect of moral judgment. Moral judgment is found to have a greater impact that moral traditionalism on abortion views, some other cultural issues, and attitudes toward the Clinton impeachment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Party identification is a standard part of our understanding of presidential voting, but the effects of presidential incumbency on presidential voting have not been recognized in most voting models. Democratic candidates in the twentieth century received 10 percent more of the two-party vote when Democratic incumbents were running for reelection than when Republican incumbents were running. National Election Studies surveys show that the effect of incumbency varies with individual partisanship, with the greatest effect, as expected, among independents. Opposition party identifiers defect at a higher rate than incumbent party identifiers when the incumbent is running for reelection. Even after controlling for retrospective and prospective economic voting, a 6 percent effect is found for incumbency. Incumbency thus conditions the impact of partisanship on presidential voting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political landscape of Japan changed drastically in the early 1990s with new parties forming, the main government party losing power temporarily, and the traditional rival parties forming a coalition government. This article examines how the spatial dimensions of party conflict changed according to surveys of the mass public. Contrary to theoretical expectations based on the stabilizing effects of party identification, we find that the structure of public attitudes toward the parties changed considerably as the party system changed. Abrupt changes in the party system were reflected in changed cleavage patterns. Independence increased during this period and changed from being perceived as a separate dimension to being seen as part of an anti-politics-as-usual dimension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzes partisan change in the 1984 election campaigns in the United States monitored by the National Election Studies and Decision/Making/Information program. Shift toward the Republican Party throughout the campaign; Unidirectional partisan change; Changes in partisan strength.

Discusses the process of evaluating theories of congressional roll-call voting in the United States. Criteria for evaluating theories; Development of baseline models to show the extent to which the votes could be predicted with minimal information; Examination of how a model of legislative behavior should be constructed.

Presents an evolutionary model of congressional voting change based on the legislator's previous voting histories on an issue limiting the amount of change between 1949 to 1972. Control of presidency by issue evolution, membership replacement and partisan shift; Effects of the sources of change on congressional roll-call voting; Trends in voting outcomes during the period.

Deals with the implications of alternative baseline models for understanding coalition behavior in the United States Congress. Mathematical formulation of the alternative baseline models; Differences among the baseline models; Analysis on how the legislative context affect the likelihood of roll call vote.

We outline several criteria for evaluating student statistical software programs and review four programs (SPSS 6.1, Mystat 2 1, ET 3.0, and StataQuest 2). Although all four programs perform adequately on many, if not all, criteria, we recommend SPSS for class use, given adequate resources. Mystat, SPSS, and StataQuest emphasize introductory data analysis techniques, whereas ET is geared toward (and excels at) more advanced statistical techniques. 1Keywords computing, data analysis, statistical software, classroom, student, statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Discusses the concept and measurement of single-peakedness and Guttman scales with regards to election voting. Condition that make preferences unidimensional; Information on response patterns used in the scaling; Measurement problems in political science.

There was a "family gap" in presidential voting in the 1992 election, with parents of young children voting more Republican. This voting difference remains, even when controls are employed for relevant demographic variables. Similarly, attitudes on family values affected voting in 1992, even when controls are added for more conventional attitudinal variables. The parenthood effect did not exist in 1988, lending support to the argument that its occurrence in 1992 was related to the focus on family values in the presidential campaign. Family structure variables can have partisan effects when parties address family issues in their appeals to voters. The target audience of the family values appeal did support President Bush, although their numbers were not large enough to produce victory. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The transfers of cabinet secretaries from one department to another are analyzed from the perspective of progressive ambition as an indicator of departmental prestige. Through the end of 1985, 59 transfers are found. Transfers are more frequent among the generalist inner cabinet departments. However, the frequency of transfers among the outer cabinet departments and between the inner and outer cabinet is sufficient to question the view of outer cabinet as specialists. This supports classifying the secretaries rather than the departments. The obtained prestige hierarchy of departments is similar to the order of succession to the presidency, but with some deviations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this article, we consider the relationship between voter turnout and voter evaluations of the candidates. Using thermometer data and the 1976 voter validation study, we investigate the magnitude of indifference, alienation, and satisfaction effects. Overall, we find candidate-based abstention in 1976 to be minimal, suggesting that nonvoting in American presidential elections must be understood in terms of factors unrelated to parties' choices of nominees. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

There is now a marriage gap in presidential voting in the United States, with married people voting about 10%-15% more Republican than unmarried people. This voting difference developed in the 1972 election, and it is also evident in party identification. The proportion of unmarried people has doubled since 1964, so this cleavage is important. The gap can be explained statistically in terms of race and income, but still may give politicians the opportunity to gain votes by appealing to voters on the basis of family issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Develops a model of democratic succession in which succession effects, the net candidate score and party identification affect the general election vote. Impact of attitudes towards Reagan on the Bush-Dukakis candidate score; Nature of succession effects; Measurement of effects using data from the National Election Studies (NES) surveys.

The 1980 and 1982 American national election studies include a new series of questions about individual partisanship. It is possible to create a 5-point scale of party support/closeness from these questions. The new measure performs reasonably as regards its relationship to other measures of partisanship, to its own continuity over time, and to dependent behavior. There is also a new question on independence, but this is best treated as a separate item rather than being incorporated in the party support/closeness scale. The new measure also performs well in measuring strength of partisanship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standard treatment of party identification makes several untested assumptions, especially that citizens can identify with only a single party and that political independence is just the opposite of partisanship. A more general possibility is that several attitudes must be taken into account: attitudes toward the Republican party, the Democratic party, political independence, and political parties generally. A literal reading of the usual party identification is consistent with this multidimensional interpretation. Citizen ratings of the two parties turn out to be virtually uncorrelated, as are ratings of independence and political parties, confirming this multidimensional view. Strength of identification and strength of independence are separate in this model, which explains some of the anomalies in the current literature, including intransitivities in relationships with other variables and weak correlations involving independence. New questions included in the 1980 CPS National Election Study support this interpretation and provide a new understanding of political independence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the varied dynamic features of statistical software. Case identification, graph overlay, linked analysis, and recomputation dynamic capabilities; Availability across various platforms; Capability for exploratory data analysis of Data Desk for the Macintosh; Features of NSDstat for the MS-DOS environment; Program costs and availabilities.

The article discusses various approaches to data analysis teaching in interactive graphics environment (IGE). Special spreadsheet templates are useful for statistical calculation. Advanced IGE data analysis programs operate in a bidirectional method, enabling users to operate on the graph. Various computer programs for interactive graphical data analysis are presented. The Statistics Department of the Ohio State University uses the Data Desk system, while the university's undergraduate political science course uses the MSYAT software for data analysis. The use of computer programs for symmetric distribution, J-shaped distribution and other statistical analyses is discussed.

The first eigenvalue of a correlation matrix indicates the maximum amount of the variance of the variables which can be accounted for with a linear model by a single underlying factor. When all correlations are positive, this first eigenvalue is approximately a linear function of the average correlation among the variables. While that is not true when not all the correlations are positive, in the general case the first eigenvalue is approximately equal to a lower bound derived in the paper. That lower bound is based on the maximum average correlation over reversals of variables and over subsets of the variables. Regression tests show these linear approximations are very accurate. The first eigenvalue measures the primary cluster in the matrix, its number of variables and average correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The paradox of voting (transitive individual preferences resulting in intransitive group preferences) is concealed by typical voting rules even when it exists. Consequently, researchers have developed theoretical solutions for the likelihood of the paradox which are based on the probability of individual preference orders. Here we develop a pairwise probability approach which depends only on the probability that one alternative is preferred to another; the likelihood of individual preference orders need not be specified. The results make the probability model more meaningful by establishing broad conditions under which the probability of the paradox is limited rather than varying between zero to one as in the unrestricted case. In addition, the maximum limiting probability of the paradox is shown to be smallest in the neutral case when all pairwise probabilities equal. 5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dr. Philip J. Schlessinger died at age 96 on September 22, 2010. He had taught political science at Los Angeles City College (LACC) for more than 60 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]