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Background: Over the last decades, the number of malaria cases has drastically reduced in Cambodia. As the overall prevalence of malaria in Cambodia declines, residual malaria transmission becomes increasingly fragmented over smaller remote regions. The aim of this study was to get an insight into the burden and epidemiological parameters of Plasmodium infections on the forest-fringe of Cambodia. Methods: 950 participants were recruited in the province of Mondulkiri in Cambodia and followed up from 2018 to 2020. Whole-blood samples were processed for Plasmodium spp. identification by PCR as well as for a serological immunoassay. A risk factor analysis was conducted for Plasmodium vivax PCR-detected infections throughout the study, and for P. vivax seropositivity at baseline. To evaluate the predictive effect of seropositivity at baseline on subsequent PCR-positivity, an analysis of P. vivax infection-free survival time stratified by serological status at baseline was performed. Results: Living inside the forest significantly increased the odds of P. vivax PCR-positivity by a factor of 18.3 (95% C.I. 7.7–43.5). Being a male adult was also a significant predictor of PCR-positivity. Similar risk profiles were identified for P. vivax seropositivity. The survival analysis showed that serological status at baseline significantly correlated with subsequent infection. Serology is most informative outside of the forest, where 94.0% (95% C.I. 90.7–97.4%) of seronegative individuals survived infection-free, compared to 32.4% (95% C.I.: 22.6–46.6%) of seropositive individuals. Conclusion: This study justifies the need for serological diagnostic assays to target interventions in this region, particularly in demographic groups where a lot of risk heterogeneity persists, such as outside of the forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria transmission modelling has demonstrated the potential impact of semiquantitative glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing and treatment with single-dose tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax radical cure but has not investigated the associated costs. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of P. vivax treatment with tafenoquine after G6PD testing using a transmission model. Methods and findings: We explored the cost-effectiveness of using tafenoquine after G6PD screening as compared to usual practice (7-day low-dose primaquine (0.5 mg/kg/day) without G6PD screening) in Brazil using a 10-year time horizon with 5% discounting considering 4 scenarios: (1) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 66.7% primaquine treatment adherence; (2) tafenoquine for adults and children aged >2 years assuming 66.7% primaquine adherence; (3) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 90% primaquine adherence; and (4) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 30% primaquine adherence. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated by dividing the incremental costs by the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. These were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of US$7,800 for Brazil, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. All 4 scenarios were cost-effective in the base case analysis using this WTP threshold with ICERs ranging from US$154 to US$1,836. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the results were most sensitive to severity and mortality due to vivax malaria, the lifetime and number of semiquantitative G6PD analysers needed, cost per malaria episode and per G6PD test strips, and life expectancy. All scenarios had a 100% likelihood of being cost-effective at the WTP threshold. The main limitations of this study are due to parameter uncertainty around our cost estimates for low transmission settings, the costs of G6PD screening, and the severity of vivax malaria Conclusions: In our modelling study that incorporated impact on transmission, tafenoquine prescribed after a semiquantitative G6PD testing was highly likely to be cost-effective in Brazil. These results demonstrate the potential health and economic importance of ensuring safe and effective radical cure. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Radical cure with primaquine or recently approved tafenoquine is required to clear the dormant liver parasites of vivax malaria. While single-dose tafenoquine overcomes the barrier of patient adherence to the current 7-day primaquine treatment, it costs more and requires screening for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. While the impact of changing policies to tafenoquine after G6PD screening on transmission has been evaluated, the associated costs and cost-effectiveness will be important considerations for policymakers. What did the researchers find?: Using an economic evaluation model coupled with a transmission model, we found that prescribing tafenoquine to vivax malaria patients without G6PD deficiency would be highly likely to be cost-effective in Brazil. Tafenoquine will be particularly cost-effective in settings where patient adherence to the current 7-day treatment is low and when paediatric tafenoquine is available to treat children as well as adults. What do these findings mean?: To our knowledge, this is the first study that has looked at the cost-effectiveness of tafenoquine when including the impact on disease transmission. The high probability of cost-effectiveness across a wide range of scenarios and municipalities should reassure decision-makers in Brazil, where tafenoquine has recently been adopted into national policy, and aid other countries considering the implementation of tafenoquine after G6PD screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As progress towards malaria elimination continues, the challenge posed by the parasite species Plasmodium vivax has become more evident. In many regions co-endemic for P. vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, as transmission has declined the proportion of cases due to P. vivax has increased. Novel tools that directly target P. vivax are thus warranted for accelerated elimination. There is currently no advanced vaccine for P. vivax and only a limited number of potential candidates in the pipeline. In this study we aimed to identify promising P. vivax proteins that could be used as part of a subunit vaccination approach. We screened 342 P. vivax protein constructs for their ability to induce IgG antibody responses associated with protection from clinical disease in a cohort of children from Papua New Guinea. This approach has previously been used to successfully identify novel candidates. We were able to confirm previous results from our laboratory identifying the proteins reticulocyte binding protein 2b and StAR-related lipid transfer protein, as well as at least four novel candidates with similar levels of predicted protective efficacy. Assessment of these P. vivax proteins in further studies to confirm their potential and identify functional mechanisms of protection against clinical disease are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Amazon Region of Peru, occupational activities are important drivers of human mobility and may increase the individual risk of being infected while contributing to increasing malaria community-level transmission. Even though out-of-village working activities and other mobility patterns have been identified as determinants of malaria transmission, no studies have quantified the effect of out-of-village working activities on recent malaria exposure and proposed plausible intervention scenarios. Using two population-based cross-sectional studies in the Loreto Department in Peru, and the parametric g-formula method, we simulated various hypothetical scenarios intervening in out-of-village working activities to reflect their potential health benefits. This study estimated that the standardized mean outcome (malaria seroprevalence) in the unexposed population (no out-of-village workers) was 44.6% (95% CI: 41.7%–47.5%) and 66.7% (95% CI: 61.6%–71.8%) in the exposed population resulting in a risk difference of 22.1% (95% CI: 16.3%–27.9%). However, heterogeneous patterns in the effects of interest were observed between peri-urban and rural areas (Cochran's Q test = 15.5, p < 0.001). Heterogeneous patterns were also observed in scenarios of increased prevalence of out-of-village working activities and restriction scenarios by gender (male vs. female) and age (18 and under vs. 19 and older) that inform possible occupational interventions targetting population subgroups. The findings of this study support the hypothesis that targeting out-of-village workers will considerably benefit current malaria elimination strategies in the Amazon Region. Particularly, males and adult populations that carried out out-of-village working activities in rural areas contribute the most to the malaria seropositivity (recent exposure to the parasite) in the Peruvian Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Co-infection of the four major species of human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), P. vivax (Pv), P. malariae (Pm), and P. ovale sp. (Po) is regularly observed, but there is limited understanding of between-species interactions. In particular, little is known about the effects of multiple Plasmodium species co-infections on gametocyte production. Methods: We developed molecular assays for detecting asexual and gametocyte stages of Pf, Pv, Pm, and Po. This is the first description of molecular diagnostics for Pm and Po gametocytes. These assays were implemented in a unique epidemiological setting in Papua New Guinea with sympatric transmission of all four Plasmodium species permitting a comprehensive investigation of species interactions. Findings: The observed frequency of Pf-Pv co-infection for asexual parasites (14.7%) was higher than expected from individual prevalence rates (23.8%Pf x 47.4%Pv = 11.3%). The observed frequency of co-infection with Pf and Pv gametocytes (4.6%) was higher than expected from individual prevalence rates (13.1%Pf x 28.2%Pv = 3.7%). The excess risk of co-infection was 1.38 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.67) for all parasites and 1.37 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.79) for gametocytes. This excess co-infection risk was partially attributable to malaria infections clustering in some villages. Pf-Pv-Pm triple infections were four times more frequent than expected by chance alone, which could not be fully explained by infections clustering in highly exposed individuals. The effect of co-infection on parasite density was analyzed by systematic comparison of all pairwise interactions. This revealed a significant 6.57-fold increase of Pm density when co-infected with Pf. Pm gametocytemia also increased with Pf co-infection. Conclusions: Heterogeneity in exposure to mosquitoes is a key epidemiological driver of Plasmodium co-infection. Among the four co-circulating parasites, Pm benefitted most from co-infection with other species. Beyond this, no general prevailing pattern of suppression or facilitation was identified in pairwise analysis of gametocytemia and parasitemia of the four species. Trial registration: This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, Trial ID: NCT02143934. Author summary: The majority of malaria research focuses on the Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax parasite species, due to their large public health burden. The epidemiology of P. malariae and P. ovale parasites has been comparatively neglected, due to a lack of research tools, most notably diagnostics. We present new molecular diagnostic assays for detecting P. malariae and P. ovale gametocytes, the sexual stage of the malaria parasite transmitted to mosquitoes. These assays were applied to samples collected in Papua New Guinea, a rare region with high transmission of the four major malaria parasite species. Patterns of co-infections were characterized accounting for interactions between pairs and triples of parasites. Heterogeneity in exposure to mosquito bites was identified as a key driver of patterns of co-infection. The effect of co-infection on parasite density was analyzed by systematic comparison of all pairwise interactions. The most significant within-host interaction of parasites was the large increase in P. malariae parasite density due to co-infection with P. falciparum. This finding was replicated for P. malariae gametocytes (but did not attain statistical significance due to low sample numbers) suggesting that co-infection provides a key transmission advantage to P. malariae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A more sensitive surveillance tool is needed to identify Plasmodium vivax infections for treatment and to accelerate malaria elimination efforts. To address this challenge, our laboratory has developed an eight-antigen panel that detects total IgG as serological markers of P. vivax exposure within the prior 9 months. The value of these markers has been established for use in areas with low transmission. In moderate-high transmission areas, there is evidence that total IgG is more long-lived than in areas with low transmission, resulting in poorer performance of these markers in these settings. Antibodies that are shorter-lived may be better markers of recent infection for use in moderate-high transmission areas. Using a multiplex assay, the antibody temporal kinetics of total IgG, IgG1, IgG3, and IgM against 29 P. vivax antigens were measured over 36 weeks following asymptomatic P. vivax infection in Papua New Guinean children (n = 31), from an area with moderate-high transmission intensity. IgG3 declined faster to background than total IgG, IgG1, and IgM. Based on these kinetics, IgG3 performance was then assessed for classifying recent exposure in a cohort of Peruvian individuals (n = 590; age 3-85 years) from an area of moderate transmission intensity. Using antibody responses against individual antigens, the highest performance of IgG3 in classifying recent P. vivax infections in the prior 9 months was to one of the Pv-fam-a proteins assessed (PVX_125728) (AUC = 0.764). Surprisingly, total IgG was overall a better marker of recent P. vivax infection, with the highest individual classification performance to RBP2b1986-2653 (PVX_094255) (AUC = 0.838). To understand the acquisition of IgG3 in this Peruvian cohort, relevant epidemiological factors were explored using a regression model. IgG3 levels were positively associated with increasing age, living in an area with (relatively) higher transmission intensity, and having three or more PCRdetected blood-stage P. vivax infections within the prior 13 months. Overall, we found that IgG3 did not have high accuracy for detecting recent exposure to P. vivax in the Peruvian cohort, with our data suggesting that this is due to the high levels of prior exposure required to acquire high IgG3 antibody levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

First identified in 1947, Zika virus took roughly 70 years to cause a pandemic unusually associated with virus-induced brain damage in newborns. Zika virus is transmitted by mosquitoes, mainly Aedes aegypti, and secondarily, Aedes albopictus, both colonizing a large strip encompassing tropical and temperate regions. As part of the international project ZIKAlliance initiated in 2016, 50 mosquito populations from six species collected in 12 countries were experimentally infected with different Zika viruses. Here, we show that Ae. aegypti is mainly responsible for Zika virus transmission having the highest susceptibility to viral infections. Other species play a secondary role in transmission while Culex mosquitoes are largely non-susceptible. Zika strain is expected to significantly modulate transmission efficiency with African strains being more likely to cause an outbreak. As the distribution of Ae. aegypti will doubtless expand with climate change and without new marketed vaccines, all the ingredients are in place to relive a new pandemic of Zika. Zika virus (ZIKV), the causative agent of virus-induced brain damage in newborns, is transmitted by mosquitoes, mainly Aedes aegypti, and secondarily, Aedes albopictus. Here, Obadia et al. characterize ZIKV vector competence of 50 mosquito populations from six species collected in 12 different countries to inform about epidemic risk. They find that African ZIKV strain shows higher transmission efficiency compared to American and Asian ZIKV strains and that Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have highest susceptibility to infections, while Culexmosquitoes are largely non-susceptible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Serological assays capable of measuring antibody responses induced by previous infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been critical tools in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we use bead-based multiplex assays to measure IgG and IgA antibodies and IgG avidity to five SARS-CoV-2 antigens (Spike (S), receptor-binding domain (RBD), Nucleocapsid (N), S subunit 2, and Membrane-Envelope fusion (ME)). These assays were performed in several cohorts of healthcare workers and nursing home residents, who were followed for up to eleven months after SARS-CoV-2 infection or up to six months after vaccination. Our results show distinct kinetic patterns of antibody quantity (IgG and IgA) and avidity. While IgG and IgA antibody levels waned over time, with IgA antibody levels waning more rapidly, avidity increased with time after infection or vaccination. These contrasting kinetic patterns allow for the estimation of time since previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Including avidity measurements in addition to antibody levels in a classification algorithm for estimating time since infection led to a substantial improvement in accuracy, from 62% to 78%. The inclusion of antibody avidity in panels of serological assays can yield valuable information for improving serosurveillance during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The landscape of malaria transmission in the Peruvian Amazon is temporally and spatially heterogeneous, presenting different micro-geographies with particular epidemiologies. Most cases are asymptomatic and escape routine malaria surveillance based on light microscopy (LM). Following the implementation of control programs in this region, new approaches to stratify transmission and direct efforts at an individual and community level are needed. Antibody responses to serological exposure markers (SEM) to Plasmodium vivax have proven diagnostic performance to identify people exposed in the previous 9 months. Methodology: We measured antibody responses against 8 SEM to identify recently exposed people and determine the transmission dynamics of P. vivax in peri-urban (Iquitos) and riverine (Mazán) communities of Loreto, communities that have seen significant recent reductions in malaria transmission. Socio-demographic, geo-reference, LM and qPCR diagnosis data were collected from two cross-sectional surveys. Spatial and multilevel analyses were implemented to describe the distribution of seropositive cases and the risk factors associated with exposure to P. vivax. Principal findings: Low local transmission was detected by qPCR in both Iquitos (5.3%) and Mazán (2.7%); however, seroprevalence indicated a higher level of (past) exposure to P. vivax in Mazán (56.5%) than Iquitos (38.2%). Age and being male were factors associated with high odds of being seropositive in both sites. Higher antibody levels were found in individuals >15 years old. The persistence of long-lived antibodies in these individuals could overestimate the detection of recent exposure. Antibody levels in younger populations (<15 years old) could be a better indicator of recent exposure to P. vivax. Conclusions: The large number of current and past infections detected by SEMs allows for detailed local epidemiological analyses, in contrast to data from qPCR prevalence surveys which did not produce statistically significant associations. Serological surveillance will be increasingly important in the Peruvian Amazon as malaria transmission is reduced by continued control and elimination efforts. Author summary: A challenge for eliminating Plasmodium vivax is its relapsing nature that can contribute up to 80% of the P. vivax cases. The detection of this source of transmission remains crucial for focused interventions in settings attempting to achieve elimination. Antibody responses to serological exposure markers to P. vivax have been validated to detect recent exposure and likely hypnozoite carriers in low transmission settings. To evaluate the benefits of adding serology to the detection of infection in areas where malaria transmission is rapidly reduced, we measured the prevalence of P. vivax by qPCR and serology in two sites of the Peruvian Amazon. This study shows that antibody responses to P. vivax antigens can detect more recently exposed people than molecular testing, providing more statistical power for surveillance and critical additional epidemiological knowledge for regions attempting to eliminate malaria transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Eliminating Plasmodium vivax will require targeting the hidden liver-stage reservoir of hypnozoites. This necessitates new interventions balancing the benefit of reducing vivax transmission against the risk of over-treating some individuals with drugs which may induce haemolysis. By measuring antibodies to a panel of vivax antigens, a strategy of serological-testing-and-treatment (PvSeroTAT) can identify individuals with recent blood-stage infections who are likely to carry hypnozoites and target them for radical cure. This provides a potential solution to selectively treat the vivax reservoir with 8-aminoquinolines. Methods: PvSeroTAT can identify likely hypnozoite carriers with ~80% sensitivity and specificity. Diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities ranging 50–100% were incorporated into a mathematical model of vivax transmission to explore how they affect the risks and benefits of different PvSeroTAT strategies involving hypnozoiticidal regimens. Risk was measured as the rate of overtreatment and benefit as reduction of community-level vivax transmission. Results: Across a wide range of combinations of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, PvSeroTAT was substantially more effective than bloodstage mass screen and treat strategies and only marginally less effective than mass drug administration. The key test characteristic determining of the benefit of PvSeroTAT strategies is diagnostic sensitivity, with higher values leading to more hypnozoite carriers effectively treated and greater reductions in vivax transmission. The key determinant of risk is diagnostic specificity: higher specificity ensures that a lower proportion of uninfected individuals are unnecessarily treated with primaquine. These relationships are maintained in both moderate and low transmission settings (qPCR prevalence 10% and 2%). Increased treatment efficacy and adherence can partially compensate for lower test performance. Multiple rounds of PvSeroTAT with a lower performing test may lead to similar or higher reductions in vivax transmission than fewer rounds with a higher performing test, albeit with higher rate of overtreatment. Conclusions: At current performance, PvSeroTAT is predicted to be a safe and efficacious option for targeting the hypnozoite reservoir towards vivax elimination. P. vivax sero-diagnostic tests should aim for both high performance and ease of use in the field. The target product profiles informing such development should thus reflect the trade-offs between impact, overtreatment, and ease of programmatic implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Eliminating Plasmodium vivax will require targeting the hidden liver-stage reservoir of hypnozoites. This necessitates new interventions balancing the benefit of reducing vivax transmission against the risk of over-treating some individuals with drugs which may induce haemolysis. By measuring antibodies to a panel of vivax antigens, a strategy of serological-testing-and-treatment (PvSeroTAT) can identify individuals with recent blood-stage infections who are likely to carry hypnozoites and target them for radical cure. This provides a potential solution to selectively treat the vivax reservoir with 8-aminoquinolines.Methods: PvSeroTAT can identify likely hypnozoite carriers with ~80% sensitivity and specificity. Diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities ranging 50-100% were incorporated into a mathematical model of vivax transmission to explore how they affect the risks and benefits of different PvSeroTAT strategies involving hypnozoiticidal regimens. Risk was measured as the rate of overtreatment and benefit as reduction of community-level vivax transmission.Results: Across a wide range of combinations of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, PvSeroTAT was substantially more effective than bloodstage mass screen and treat strategies and only marginally less effective than mass drug administration. The key test characteristic determining of the benefit of PvSeroTAT strategies is diagnostic sensitivity, with higher values leading to more hypnozoite carriers effectively treated and greater reductions in vivax transmission. The key determinant of risk is diagnostic specificity: higher specificity ensures that a lower proportion of uninfected individuals are unnecessarily treated with primaquine. These relationships are maintained in both moderate and low transmission settings (qPCR prevalence 10% and 2%). Increased treatment efficacy and adherence can partially compensate for lower test performance. Multiple rounds of PvSeroTAT with a lower performing test may lead to similar or higher reductions in vivax transmission than fewer rounds with a higher performing test, albeit with higher rate of overtreatment.Conclusions: At current performance, PvSeroTAT is predicted to be a safe and efficacious option for targeting the hypnozoite reservoir towards vivax elimination. P. vivax sero-diagnostic tests should aim for both high performance and ease of use in the field. The target product profiles informing such development should thus reflect the trade-offs between impact, overtreatment, and ease of programmatic implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Burn patients have numerous risk factors for multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) and altered pharmacokinetics, which both independently increase the risk of treatment failure. Data on appropriate antimicrobial dosing are limited in this population and therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) for beta-lactams is impractical at most facilities. Technology is available that can detect genetic markers of resistance, but they are not all encompassing, and often require specialized facilities that can detect less common genetic markers. Newer antimicrobials can help combat MDROs, but additional resistance patterns may evolve during treatment. Considering drug shortages and antimicrobial formularies, clinicians must remain vigilant when treating infections. This case report describes the development of resistance to ceftazidime-avibactam in a burn patient. The patient was a 54-year-old burn victim with a 58% total body surface area (TBSA) thermal burn who underwent multiple courses of antibiotics for various Pseudomonal infections. The initial Pseudomonal wound infection was sensitive to cefepime, aminoglycosides, and meropenem. A subsequent resistant pseudomonal pneumonia was treated with ceftazidime-avibactam 2.5 g every 6 hours due to the elevated MIC to cefepime (16 mcg/mL) and meropenem (>8 mcg/mL). Although the patient improved over 7 days, the patient again spiked fevers and had increased white blood counts (WBC). Repeat blood cultures demonstrated a multidrug-resistant (MDR) Pseudomonas with a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) to ceftazidime-avibactam of 16 mcg/mL, which is above the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) breakpoint of 8 mcg/mL. At first, resistance was thought to have occurred due to inadequate dosing, but genetic work demonstrated multiple genes encoding beta-lactamases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strengthening malaria surveillance is a key intervention needed to reduce the global disease burden. Reliable serological markers of recent malaria exposure could improve current surveillance methods by allowing for accurate estimates of infection incidence from limited data. We studied the IgG antibody response to 111 Plasmodium falciparum proteins in 65 adult travellers followed longitudinally after a natural malaria infection in complete absence of re-exposure. We identified a combination of five serological markers that detect exposure within the previous three months with >80% sensitivity and specificity. Using mathematical modelling, we examined the antibody kinetics and determined that responses informative of recent exposure display several distinct characteristics: rapid initial boosting and decay, less inter-individual variation in response kinetics, and minimal persistence over time. Such serological exposure markers could be incorporated into routine malaria surveillance to guide efforts for malaria control and elimination. Serological markers of recent Plasmodium falciparum infection could be useful to estimate incidence. Here, the authors identify a combination of five serological markers to detect exposure to infection within the previous three months with >80% sensitivity and specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Plasmodium vivax blood-stage relapses originating from re-activating hypnozoites are a major barrier for control and elimination of this disease. Radical cure is a form of therapy capable of addressing this problem. Recent clinical trials of radical cure have yielded efficacy estimates ranging from 65 to 94%, with substantial variation across trial sites. Methods: An analysis of simulated trial data using a transmission model was performed to demonstrate that variation in efficacy estimates across trial sites can arise from differences in the conditions under which trials are conducted. Results: The analysis revealed that differences in transmission intensity, heterogeneous exposure and relapse rate can yield efficacy estimates ranging as widely as 12–78%, despite simulating trial data under the uniform assumption that treatment had a 75% chance of clearing hypnozoites. A longer duration of prophylaxis leads to a greater measured efficacy, particularly at higher transmission intensities, making the comparison between the protection of different radical cure treatment regimens against relapse more challenging. Simulations show that vector control and parasite genotyping offer two potential means to yield more standardized efficacy estimates that better reflect prevention of relapse. Conclusions: Site-specific biases are likely to contribute to variation in efficacy estimates both within and across clinical trials. Future clinical trials can reduce site-specific biases by conducting trials in low-transmission settings where re-infections from mosquito bite are less common, by preventing re-infections using vector control measures, or by identifying and excluding likely re-infections that occur during follow-up, by using parasite genotyping methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve malaria elimination, new tools are required to explicitly target Plasmodium vivax. Recently, a novel panel of P. vivax proteins were identified and validated as serological markers for detecting recent exposure to P. vivax within the last 9 months. In order to improve the sensitivity and specificity of these markers, immunoglobulin M (IgM) in addition to immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody responses were compared with a down-selected panel of 20 P. vivax proteins. IgM was tested using archival plasma samples from observational cohort studies conducted in malaria-endemic regions of Thailand and Brazil. IgM responses to these proteins generally had poorer classification performance than IgG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) is a severe cutaneous reaction that can be life-threatening. In the United States, there are no established guidelines for the treatment of TEN. Supportive care including fluids and supportive therapies are the current recommendations. Research surrounding TEN involves mostly case studies or small, uncontrolled studies. Recent literature describes the use of tumor necrosis factor blockers in the treatment of TEN with positive results. These case reports describe decreased time to reepithelization, hospital length of stay, and minimal side effects. Conversely, we present three fatalities after the administration of etanercept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Antibody responses as serological markers of Plasmodium vivax infection have been shown to correlate with exposure, but little is known about the other factors that affect antibody responses in naturally infected people from endemic settings. To address this question, we studied IgG responses to novel serological exposure markers (SEMs) of P. vivax in three settings with different transmission intensity. Methodology: We validated a panel of 34 SEMs in a Peruvian cohort with up to three years' longitudinal follow-up using a multiplex platform and compared results to data from cohorts in Thailand and Brazil. Linear regression models were used to characterize the association between antibody responses and age, the number of detected blood-stage infections during follow-up, and time since previous infection. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to test the performance of SEMs to identify P. vivax infections in the previous 9 months. Principal findings: Antibody titers were associated with age, the number of blood-stage infections, and time since previous P. vivax infection in all three study sites. The association between antibody titers and time since previous P. vivax infection was stronger in the low transmission settings of Thailand and Brazil compared to the higher transmission setting in Peru. Of the SEMs tested, antibody responses to RBP2b had the highest performance for classifying recent exposure in all sites, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.83 in Thailand, AUC = 0.79 in Brazil, and AUC = 0.68 in Peru. Conclusions: In low transmission settings, P. vivax SEMs can accurately identify individuals with recent blood-stage infections. In higher transmission settings, the accuracy of this approach diminishes substantially. We recommend using P. vivax SEMs in low transmission settings pursuing malaria elimination, but they are likely to be less effective in high transmission settings focused on malaria control. Author summary: Plasmodium vivax still poses a threat in many countries due to its ability to cause recurrent infections. Key to achieving the goal of malaria elimination is the ability to quickly detect and treat carriers of relapsing parasites. Failing to identify this transmission reservoir will hinder progress towards malaria elimination. Recently, novel serological markers of recent exposure to P. vivax (SEM) have been developed and validated in low transmission settings. It is still poorly understood what factors affect the antibody response to these markers when evaluated in contrasting endemic contexts. To determine the factors that influence the antibody response to SEM, we compared the antibody levels in three sites with different transmission intensity: Thailand (low), Brazil (moderate) and Peru (high). In this study, we found that transmission intensity plays a key role in the acquisition of the antibody repertoire to P. vivax. In highly endemic sites, it is likely that immunological memory resulting from a constant and sustained exposure will impact the performance of SEMs to detect individuals with recent exposure to P. vivax. In summary, SEMs that perform well in low transmission sites do not perform as well in high transmission regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clinical immunity to malaria develops after repeated exposure to Plasmodium falciparum parasites. Broadly reactive antibodies against parasite antigens expressed on the surface of infected erythrocytes (variable surface antigens; VSAs) are candidates for anti-malaria therapeutics and vaccines. Among the VSAs, several RIFIN, STEVOR, and SURFIN family members have been demonstrated to be targets of naturally acquired immunity against malaria. For example, RIFIN family members are important ligands for opsonization of P. falciparum infected erythrocytes with specific immunoglobulins (IgG) acquiring broad protective reactivity. However, the global repertoire of human anti-VSAs IgG, its variation in children, and the key protective targets remain poorly understood. Here, we report wheat germ cell-free system-based production and serological profiling of a comprehensive library of A-RIFINs, B-RIFINs, STEVORs, and SURFINs derived from the P. falciparum 3D7 parasite strain. We observed that >98% of assayed proteins (n = 265) were immunogenic in malaria-exposed individuals in Uganda. The overall breadth of immune responses was significantly correlated with age but not with clinical malaria outcome among the study volunteers. However, children with high levels of antibodies to four RIFINs (PF3D7_0201000, PF3D7_1254500, PF3D7_1040600, PF3D7_1041100), STEVOR (PF3D7_0732000), and SURFIN 1.2 (PF3D7_0113600) had prospectively reduced the risk of developing febrile malaria, suggesting that the 5 antigens are important targets of protective immunity. Further studies on the significance of repeated exposure to malaria infection and maintenance of such high-level antibodies would contribute to a better understanding of susceptibility and naturally acquired immunity to malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Plasmodium vivax Reticulocyte Binding Protein (PvRBP) family is involved in red blood cell recognition and members of this family are potential targets for antibodies that may block P. vivax invasion. To date, the acquisition of immunity against PvRBPs in low malaria transmission settings and in a broad age group of exposed individuals has not been investigated. Methodology/Principal findings: Total IgG antibody levels to six members of the PvRBP family (PvRBP1a, PvRBP1b, PvRBP2a, PvRBP2b, a non-binding fragment of PvRBP2c (PvRBP2cNB) and PvRBP2-P2) were measured in samples collected from individuals living in two regions of low P. vivax endemicity in Brazil and Thailand. In both settings, levels of total IgG to PvRBP1a, PvRBP2b, PvRBP2cNB, and PvRBP2P-2 increased significantly with age (rho = 0.17–0.49; P<0.001). IgG responses to PvRBP1a, PvRBP2b and PvRBP2cNB were significantly higher in infected individuals by using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank test (P<0.001). Of the six PvRBPs examined, only antibodies to PvRBP2b were associated with protection against clinical malaria in both settings. Conclusion/Significance: Our results indicate that PvRBP2b warrants further preclinical development as a blood-stage vaccine candidate against P. vivax. Total IgG responses to PvRBPs were also shown to be promising immunological markers of exposure to P. vivax infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Antibodies against merozoite antigens are key components of malaria immunity. The naturally acquired antibody response to these antigens is generally considered short-lived; however, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Prospective studies of travellers with different levels of prior exposure, returning to malaria-free countries with Plasmodium infection, offer a unique opportunity to investigate the kinetics and composition of the antibody response after natural infection.Methods: Adults diagnosed with P. falciparum malaria in Stockholm, Sweden (20 likely malaria naïve and 41 with repeated previous exposure during residency in sub-Saharan Africa) were sampled at diagnosis and 10 days and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment. Total and subclass-specific IgG responses to P. falciparum merozoite antigens (AMA-1, MSP-119, MSP-2, MSP-3, and RH5) and tetanus toxoid were measured by multiplex bead-based immunoassays and ELISA. Mathematical modelling was used to estimate the exposure-dependent longevity of antibodies and antibody-secreting cells (ASCs).Results: A majority of individuals mounted detectable antibody responses towards P. falciparum merozoite antigens at diagnosis; however, the magnitude and breadth were greater in individuals with prior exposure. In both exposure groups, antibody levels increased rapidly for 2 weeks and decayed thereafter. Previously exposed individuals maintained two- to ninefold greater antibody levels throughout the 1-year follow-up. The half-lives of malaria-specific long-lived ASCs, responsible for maintaining circulating antibodies, ranged from 1.8 to 3.7 years for merozoite antigens and were considerably short compared to tetanus-specific ASCs. Primary infected individuals did acquire a long-lived component of the antibody response; however, the total proportion of long-lived ASCs generated in response to infection was estimated not to exceed 10%. In contrast, previously exposed individuals maintained substantially larger numbers of long-lived ASCs (10-56% of total ASCs).Conclusion: The short-lived nature of the naturally acquired antibody response, to all tested merozoite antigens, following primary malaria infection can be attributed to a combination of a poor acquisition and short half-life of long-lived ASCs. Greater longevity is acquired with repeated infections and can be explained by the maintenance of larger numbers of long-lived ASCs. These insights advance our understanding of naturally acquired malaria immunity and will guide strategies for further development of both vaccines and serological tools to monitor exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple subtypes of avian influenza (AI) and novel reassortants are frequently isolated from live bird markets (LBMs). However, our understanding of the drivers of persistence of multiple AI subtypes is limited. We propose a stochastic model of AI transmission within an LBM that incorporates market size, turnover rate and the balance of direct versus environmental transmissibility. We investigate the relationship between these factors and the critical community size (CCS) for the persistence of single and multiple AI strains within an LBM. We fit different models of seeding from farms to two-strain surveillance data collected from Shantou, China. For a single strain and plausible estimates for continuous turnover rates and transmissibility, the CCS was approximately 11 800 birds, only a 4.2%increase in this estimatewas needed to ensure persistence of the co-infecting strains (two strains in a single host). Precise values of CCS estimates were sensitive to changes in market turnover rate and duration of the latent period. Assuming a gradual daily sell rate of birds the estimated CCS was higher than when an instantaneous selling rate was assumed. We were able to reproduce prevalence dynamics similar to observations from a single market in China with infection seeded every 5-15 days, and a maximum non-seeding duration of 80 days. Our findings suggest that persistence of co-infections is more likely to be owing to sequential infection of single strains rather than ongoing transmission of both strains concurrently. In any given system for a fixed set of ecological and epidemiological conditions, there is an LBM size below which the risk of sustained co-circulation is lowand whichmay suggest a clear policy opportunity to reduce the frequency of influenza co-infection in poultry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plasmodium vivax remains an important cause of malaria in South America and the Asia-Pacific. Naturally acquired antibody responses against multiple P. vivax proteins have been described in numerous countries, however, direct comparison of these responses has been difficult with different methodologies employed. We measured antibody responses against 307 P. vivax proteins at the time of P. vivax infection, and at 2–3 later time-points in three countries. We observed that seropositivity rates at the time of infection were highest in Thailand, followed by Brazil then PNG, reflecting the level of antigenic input. The majority of sero-reactive antigens in all sites induced short-lived antibody responses with estimated half-lives of less than 6 months, although there was a trend towards longer-lived responses in PNG children. Despite these differences, IgG seropositivity rates, magnitude and longevity were highly and significantly rank-correlated between the different regions, suggesting such features are reflective of the individual protein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria is ranked as the leading communicable disease in Ethiopia, where Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are co-endemic. The incidence of P. vivax is usually considered to be less seasonal than P. falciparum. Clinical cases of symptomatic P. falciparum exhibit notable seasonal variation, driven by rainfall-dependent variation in the abundance of Anopheles mosquitoes. A similar peak of clinical cases of P. vivax is usually observed during the rainy season. However, the ability of P. vivax to relapse causing new blood-stage infections weeks to months after an infectious mosquito bite can lead to substantial differences in seasonal patterns of clinical cases. These cannot be detected with currently available diagnostic tools and are not cleared upon treatment with routinely administered anti-malarial drugs. Methods: A health- facility based cross-sectional study was conducted in Adama malaria diagnostic centre from May 2015 to April 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were collected for thin and thick blood film preparation from participants seeking treatment for suspected cases of febrile malaria. Informed consent was obtained from each study participant or their guardians. Seasonal patterns in malaria cases were analysed using statistical models, identifying the peaks in cases, and the seasonally varying proportion of P. vivax cases attributable to relapses. Results: The proportion of patients with malaria detectable by light microscopy was 36.1% (1141/3161) of which P. vivax, P. falciparum, and mixed infections accounted for 71.4, 25.8 and 2.8%, respectively. Of the febrile patients diagnosed, 2134 (67.5%) were males and 1919 (60.7%) were urban residents. The model identified a primary peak in P. falciparum and P. vivax cases from August to October, as well as a secondary peak of P. vivax cases from February to April attributable to cases arising from relapses. During the secondary peak of P. vivax cases approximately 77% (95% CrI 68, 84%) of cases are estimated to be attributable to relapses. During the primary peak from August to October, approximately 40% (95% CrI 29, 57%) of cases are estimated to be attributable to relapses. Discussion: It is not possible to diagnose whether a P. vivax case has been caused by blood-stage infection from a mosquito bite or a relapse. However, differences in seasonal patterns of P. falciparum and P. vivax cases can be used to estimate the population-level proportion of P. vivax cases attributable to relapses. These observations have important implications for the epidemiological assessment of vivax malaria, and initiating therapy that is effective against both blood stages and relapses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Thailand is aiming to eliminate malaria by the year 2024. Plasmodium vivax has now become the dominant species causing malaria within the country, and a high proportion of infections are asymptomatic. A better understanding of antibody dynamics to P. vivax antigens in a low-transmission setting, where acquired immune responses are poorly characterized, will be pivotal for developing new strategies for elimination, such as improved surveillance methods and vaccines. The objective of this study was to characterize total IgG antibody levels to 11 key P. vivax proteins in a village of western Thailand. Methods: Plasma samples from 546 volunteers enrolled in a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2012 in Kanchanaburi Province were utilized. Total IgG levels to 11 different proteins known or predicted to be involved in reticulocyte binding or invasion (ARP, GAMA, P41, P12, PVX_081550, and five members of the PvRBP family), as well as the leading pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidate (CSP) were measured using a multiplexed bead-based assay. Associations between IgG levels and infection status, age, and spatial location were explored. Results: Individuals from a low-transmission region of western Thailand reacted to all 11 P. vivax recombinant proteins. Significantly greater IgG levels were observed in the presence of a current P. vivax infection, despite all infected individuals being asymptomatic. IgG levels were also higher in adults (18 years and older) than in children. For most of the proteins, higher IgG levels were observed in individuals living closer to the Myanmar border and further away from local health services. Conclusions: Robust IgG responses were observed to most proteins and IgG levels correlated with surrogates of exposure, suggesting these antigens may serve as potential biomarkers of exposure, immunity, or both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As malaria is being pushed back on many frontiers and global case numbers are declining, accurate measurement and prediction of transmission becomes increasingly difficult. Low transmission settings are characterised by high levels of spatial heterogeneity, which stands in stark contrast to the widely used assumption of spatially homogeneous transmission used in mathematical transmission models for malaria. In the present study an individual-based mathematical malaria transmission model that incorporates multiple parasite clones, variable human exposure and duration of infection, limited mosquito flight distance and most importantly geographically heterogeneous human and mosquito population densities was used to illustrate the differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous transmission assumptions when aiming to predict surrogate indicators of transmission intensity such as population parasite prevalence or multiplicity of infection (MOI). In traditionally highly malaria endemic regions where most of the population harbours malaria parasites, humans are often infected with multiple parasite clones. However, studies have shown also in areas with low overall parasite prevalence, infection with multiple parasite clones is a common occurrence. Mathematical models assuming homogeneous transmission between humans and mosquitoes cannot explain these observations. Heterogeneity of transmission can arise from many factors including acquired immunity, body size and occupational exposure. In this study, we show that spatial heterogeneity has a profound effect on predictions of MOI and parasite prevalence. We illustrate, that models assuming homogeneous transmission underestimate average MOI in low transmission settings when compared to field data and that spatially heterogeneous models predict stable transmission at much lower overall parasite prevalence. Therefore it is very important that models used to guide malaria surveillance and control strategies in low transmission and elimination settings take into account the spatial features of the specific target area, including human and mosquito vector distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Increasing evidence suggests that antibodies against merozoite proteins involved in Plasmodium falciparum invasion into the red blood cell play an important role in clinical immunity to malaria. Erythrocyte-binding antigen 175 (EBA-175) is the best-characterized P. falciparum invasion ligand, reported to recognize glycophorin A on the surface of erythrocytes. Its protein structure comprises 6 extracellular regions. Whereas region II contains Duffy binding-like domains involved in the binding to glycophorin A, the functional role of regions III-V is less clear.Methods: We developed a novel cytometric bead array for assessment of antigen-specific antibody concentration in plasma to evaluate the efficacy of immune responses to different regions of EBA-175 and associations between antibody levels with protection from symptomatic malaria in a treatment-reinfection cohort study.Results: We found that while antibodies to region II are highly abundant, circulating levels as low as 5-10 µg/mL of antibodies specific for region III or the highly conserved regions IV-V predict strong protection from clinical malaria.Conclusions: These results lend support for the development of conserved regions of EBA-175 as components in a combination of a malaria vaccine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria would be greatly facilitated by the development of an effective vaccine. A comprehensive and systematic characterization of antibodies to P. vivax antigens in exposed populations is useful in guiding rational vaccine design. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study, we investigated antibodies to a large library of P. vivax entire ectodomain merozoite proteins in 2 Asia-Pacific populations, analysing the relationship of antibody levels with markers of current and cumulative malaria exposure, and socioeconomic and clinical indicators. 29 antigenic targets of natural immunity were identified. Of these, 12 highly-immunogenic proteins were strongly associated with age and thus cumulative lifetime exposure in Solomon Islanders (P<0.001–0.027). A subset of 6 proteins, selected on the basis of immunogenicity and expression levels, were used to examine antibody levels in plasma samples from a population of young Papua New Guinean children with well-characterized individual differences in exposure. This analysis identified a strong association between reduced risk of clinical disease and antibody levels to P12, P41, and a novel hypothetical protein that has not previously been studied, PVX_081550 (IRR 0.46–0.74; P<0.001–0.041). Conclusion/Significance: These data emphasize the benefits of an unbiased screening approach in identifying novel vaccine candidate antigens. Functional studies are now required to establish whether PVX_081550 is a key component of the naturally-acquired protective immune response, a biomarker of immune status, or both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is substantial variation in the relapse frequency of Plasmodium vivax malaria, with fast-relapsing strains in tropical areas, and slow-relapsing strains in temperate areas with seasonal transmission. We hypothesize that much of the phenotypic diversity in P. vivax relapses arises from selection of relapse frequency to optimize transmission potential in a given environment, in a process similar to the virulence trade-off hypothesis. We develop mathematical models of P. vivax transmission and calculate the basic reproduction number R[sub 0] to investigate how transmission potential varies with relapse frequency and seasonality. In tropical zones with year-round transmission, transmission potential is optimized at intermediate relapse frequencies of two to three months: slower-relapsing strains increase the opportunity for onward transmission to mosquitoes, but also increase the risk of being outcompeted by faster-relapsing strains. Seasonality is an important driver of relapse frequency for temperate strains, with the time to first relapse predicted to be six to nine months, coinciding with the duration between seasonal transmission peaks. We predict that there is a threshold degree of seasonality, below which fast-relapsing tropical strains are selected for, and above which slow-relapsing temperate strains dominate, providing an explanation for the observed global distribution of relapse phenotypes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The undetectable hypnozoite reservoir for relapsing Plasmodium vivax and P. ovale malarias presents a major challenge for malaria control and elimination in endemic countries. This study aims to directly determine the contribution of relapses to the burden of P. vivax and P. ovale infection, illness, and transmission in Papua New Guinean children.Methods and Findings: From 17 August 2009 to 20 May 2010, 524 children aged 5-10 y from East Sepik Province in Papua New Guinea (PNG) participated in a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of blood- plus liver-stage drugs (chloroquine [CQ], 3 d; artemether-lumefantrine [AL], 3 d; and primaquine [PQ], 20 d, 10 mg/kg total dose) (261 children) or blood-stage drugs only (CQ, 3 d; AL, 3 d; and placebo [PL], 20 d) (263 children). Participants, study staff, and investigators were blinded to the treatment allocation. Twenty children were excluded during the treatment phase (PQ arm: 14, PL arm: 6), and 504 were followed actively for 9 mo. During the follow-up time, 18 children (PQ arm: 7, PL arm: 11) were lost to follow-up. Main primary and secondary outcome measures were time to first P. vivax infection (by qPCR), time to first clinical episode, force of infection, gametocyte positivity, and time to first P. ovale infection (by PCR). A basic stochastic transmission model was developed to estimate the potential effect of mass drug administration (MDA) for the prevention of recurrent P. vivax infections. Targeting hypnozoites through PQ treatment reduced the risk of having at least one qPCR-detectable P. vivax or P. ovale infection during 8 mo of follow-up (P. vivax: PQ arm 0.63/y versus PL arm 2.62/y, HR = 0.18 [95% CI 0.14, 0.25], p < 0.001; P. ovale: 0.06 versus 0.14, HR = 0.31 [95% CI 0.13, 0.77], p = 0.011) and the risk of having at least one clinical P. vivax episode (HR = 0.25 [95% CI 0.11, 0.61], p = 0.002). PQ also reduced the molecular force of P. vivax blood-stage infection in the first 3 mo of follow-up (PQ arm 1.90/y versus PL arm 7.75/y, incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.21 [95% CI 0.15, 0.28], p < 0.001). Children who received PQ were less likely to carry P. vivax gametocytes (IRR = 0.27 [95% CI 0.19, 0.38], p < 0.001). PQ had a comparable effect irrespective of the presence of P. vivax blood-stage infection at the time of treatment (p = 0.14). Modelling revealed that mass screening and treatment with highly sensitive quantitative real-time PCR, or MDA with blood-stage treatment alone, would have only a transient effect on P. vivax transmission levels, while MDA that includes liver-stage treatment is predicted to be a highly effective strategy for P. vivax elimination. The inclusion of a directly observed 20-d treatment regime maximises the efficiency of hypnozoite clearance but limits the generalisability of results to real-world MDA programmes.Conclusions: These results suggest that relapses cause approximately four of every five P. vivax infections and at least three of every five P. ovale infections in PNG children and are important in sustaining transmission. MDA campaigns combining blood- and liver-stage treatment are predicted to be a highly efficacious intervention for reducing P. vivax and P. ovale transmission.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02143934. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25°C, the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29°C and 34°C, about 3°C and 7°C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 29°C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 30°C. Small temperature increases (less than 2°C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 33°C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13-41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Acquired immune responses to malaria have widely been perceived to be short-lived, with previously immune individuals losing immunity when they move from malaria-endemic areas. However long-lived Plasmodium falciparum–specific antibody responses lasting for an individual's lifetime are frequently observed.Methods. We fit mathematical models of the dynamics of antibody titers to P. falciparum antigens from longitudinal cohort studies of African children to estimate the half-lives of circulating immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies and IgG antibody-secreting cells (ASCs).Results. Comparison of antibody responses in the younger Ghanaian cohort and the older Gambian cohort suggests that young children are less able to generate the long-lived ASCs necessary to maintain the circulating antibodies that may provide protection against reinfection. Antibody responses in African children can be described by a model 15 including both short-lived ASCs (half-life range, 2–10 days), which are responsible for boosting antibody titers following infection, and long-lived ASCs (half-life range, 3–9 years), which are responsible for maintaining sustained humoral responses.Conclusions. The rapid decay of antibodies following exposure to malaria and the maintenance of sustained antibody responses can be explained in terms of populations of short-lived and long-lived ASCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Plasmodium knowlesi is now recognised as a leading cause of malaria in Malaysia. As humans come into increasing contact with the reservoir host (long-tailed macaques) as a consequence of deforestation, assessing the potential for a shift from zoonotic to sustained P. knowlesi transmission between humans is critical. Methods: A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection. Results: Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R0H = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively. Conclusion: This model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of control measures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans, but they must be actively implemented if P. knowlesi is to be controlled. Author Summary: Plasmodium knowlesi is a malaria of macaques which is now recognised as a leading cause of human malaria in Malaysia. Although current human infections are a result of human-macaque contact, there is a potential for P. knowlesi to be transmitted solely among humans. The authors developed a multi-host, multi-site transmission model to assess the likelihood of this happening due to increased human-macaque contact as a consequence of deforestation, population growth, and land-use change. How effective currently available malaria control measures were against P. knowlesi was also an important issue that was explored using the model. Although the model predicts that conventional control measures will be sufficient against P. knowlesi, with the push to eliminate malaria by the end of 2015, it is crucial to be aware of zoonotic malarias which may undermine such efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Plasmodium falciparum EBA175 and PfRh2 belong to two main families involved in parasite invasion, and both are potential vaccine candidates. Current knowledge is limited regarding which target antigens and subclasses of antibodies are actually important for protection, and how naturally acquired immunity is achieved. Methods: Repeated blood samples were collected from individuals in Nigeria over a period of almost one year. ELISA was used to analyse subclasses of IgG responses. Results: For both EBA175 (region III-V) and (a fragment of) PfRh2, the dominant antibody responses consisted of IgG1 and IgG3 followed by IgG2, while for PfRh2 there was also a relatively prominent response for IgG4. High levels of IgG1, IgG2 and IgG3 for EBA175 and total IgG for PfRh2 correlated significantly with a lower parasitaemia during the study period. Children with HbAS had higher levels of some subclasses compared to children with HbAA, while in adults the pattern was the opposite. The half-lives of IgG2 and IgG4 against EBA175 were clearly shorter than those for IgG1 and IgG3. Conclusion: EBA175 and PfRh2 are potential targets for protective antibodies since both correlated with lower parasitaemia. The shorter half-lives for IgG2 and IgG4 might explain why these subclasses are often considered less important in protection against malaria. Triggering the right subclass responses could be of critical importance in a successful vaccine. Further studies are needed to evaluate the role of haemoglobin polymorphisms and their malaria protective effects in this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Plasmodium knowlesi is now recognised as a leading cause of malaria in Malaysia. As humans come into increasing contact with the reservoir host (long-tailed macaques) as a consequence of deforestation, assessing the potential for a shift from zoonotic to sustained P. knowlesi transmission between humans is critical. Methods: A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection. Results: Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R0H = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively. Conclusion: This model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of control measures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans, but they must be actively implemented if P. knowlesi is to be controlled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spray programs for malaria control are entirely dependent on pyrethroid insecticides. The ubiquitous exposure of Anopheles mosquitoes to this chemistry has selected for resistance in a number of populations. This threatens the sustainability of our most effective interventions but no operationally practicable way of resolving the problem currently exists. One innovative solution involves the co-application of a powerful chemosterilant (pyriproxyfen or PPF) to bed nets that are usually treated only with pyrethroids. Resistant mosquitoes that are unaffected by the pyrethroid component of a PPF/pyrethroid co-treatment remain vulnerable to PPF. There is a differential impact of PPF on pyrethroid-resistant and susceptible mosquitoes that is modulated by the mosquito’s behavioural response at co-treated surfaces. This imposes a specific fitness cost on pyrethroid-resistant phenotypes and can reverse selection. The concept is demonstrated using a mathematical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Both high and low pathogenic subtype A avian influenza remain ongoing threats to the commercial poultry industry globally. The emergence of a novel low pathogenic H7N9 lineage in China presents itself as a new concern to both human and animal health and may necessitate additional surveillance in commercial poultry operations in affected regions. Methods: Sampling data was simulated using a mechanistic model of H7N9 influenza transmission within commercial poultry barns together with a stochastic observation process. Parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood. We assessed the probability of detecting an outbreak at time of slaughter using both real-time polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR) and a hemagglutinin inhibition assay (HI assay) before considering more intense sampling prior to slaughter. The day of virus introduction and R0 were estimated jointly from weekly flock sampling data. For scenarios where R0 was known, we estimated the day of virus introduction into a barn under different sampling frequencies. Results: If birds were tested at time of slaughter, there was a higher probability of detecting evidence of an outbreak using an HI assay compared to rt-PCR, except when the virus was introduced <2 weeks before time of slaughter. Prior to the initial detection of infection Nsample = 50 (1%) of birds were sampled on a weekly basis once, but after infection was detected, Nsample = 2000 birds (40%) were sampled to estimate both parameters. We accurately estimated the day of virus introduction in isolation with weekly and 2-weekly sampling. Conclusions: A strong sampling effort would be required to infer both the day of virus introduction and R0. Such a sampling effort would not be required to estimate the day of virus introduction alone once R0 was known, and sampling Nsample = 50 of birds in the flock on a weekly or 2 weekly basis would be sufficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Current vector control strategies focus largely on indoor measures, such as long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS); however mosquitoes frequently feed on sugar sources outdoors, inviting the possibility of novel control strategies. Attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSB), either sprayed on vegetation or provided in outdoor bait stations, have been shown to significantly reduce mosquito densities in these settings. Methods: Simple models of mosquito sugar-feeding behaviour were fitted to data from an ATSB field trial in Mali and used to estimate sugar-feeding rates and the potential of ATSB to control mosquito populations. The model and fitted parameters were then incorporated into a larger integrated vector management (IVM) model to assess the potential contribution of ATSB to future IVM programmes. Results: In the Mali experimental setting, the model suggests that about half of female mosquitoes fed on ATSB solution per day, dying within several hours of ingesting the toxin. Using a model incorporating the number of gonotrophic cycles completed by female mosquitoes, a higher sugar-feeding rate was estimated for younger mosquitoes than for older mosquitoes. Extending this model to incorporate other vector control interventions suggests that an IVM programme based on both ATSB and LLINs may substantially reduce mosquito density and survival rates in this setting, thereby substantially reducing parasite transmission. This is predicted to exceed the impact of LLINs in combination with IRS provided ATSB feeding rates are 50% or more of Mali experimental levels. In addition, ATSB is predicted to be particularly effective against Anopheles arabiensis, which is relatively exophilic and therefore less affected by IRS and LLINs. Conclusions: These results suggest that high coverage with a combination of LLINs and ATSB could result in substantial reductions in malaria transmission in this setting. Further field studies of ATSB in other settings are needed to assess the potential of ATSB as a component in future IVM malaria control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding the role of pre-erythrocytic immune responses to Plasmodium falciparum parasites is crucial for understanding the epidemiology of malaria. However, published studies have reported inconsistent results on the association between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from malaria. Methods: The design and statistical methods of studies of pre-erythrocytic immunity were reviewed, and factors affecting the likelihood of detecting statistically significant associations were assessed. Treatment re-infection studies were simulated to estimate the effects of study size, transmission intensity, and sampling frequency on the statistical power to detect an association between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from infection. Results: Nine of nineteen studies reviewed reported statistically significant associations between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from infection. Studies with large numbers of participants in high-transmission settings, followed longitudinally with active detection of infection and with immune responses analysed as continuous variables, were most likely to detect statistically significant associations. Simulation of treatment re-infection studies highlights that many studies are underpowered to detect statistically significant associations, providing an explanation for the finding that only some studies report significant associations between pre-erythrocytic immune responses and protection from infection. Conclusions: The findings of the review and model simulations are consistent with the hypothesis that pre-erythrocytic immune responses prevent P. falciparum infections, but that many studies are underpowered to consistently detect this effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria vectors which predominantly feed indoors upon humans have been locally eliminated from several settings with insecticide treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying or larval source management. Recent dramatic declines of An. gambiae in east Africa with imperfect ITN coverage suggest mosquito populations can rapidly collapse when forced below realistically achievable, non-zero thresholds of density and supporting resource availability. Here we explain why insecticide-based mosquito elimination strategies are feasible, desirable and can be extended to a wider variety of species by expanding the vector control arsenal to cover a broader spectrum of the resources they need to survive. The greatest advantage of eliminating mosquitoes, rather than merely controlling them, is that this precludes local selection for behavioural or physiological resistance traits. The greatest challenges are therefore to achieve high biological coverage of targeted resources rapidly enough to prevent local emergence of resistance and to then continually exclude, monitor for and respond to re-invasion from external populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination with the pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S induces high levels of antibodies and CD4+ T cells specific for the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). Using a biologically-motivated mathematical model of sporozoite infection fitted to data from malaria-naive adults vaccinated with RTS,S and subjected to experimental P. falciparum challenge, we characterised the relationship between antibodies, CD4+ T cell responses and protection from infection. Both anti-CSP antibody titres and CSP-specific CD4+ T cells were identified as immunological surrogates of protection, with RTS,S induced anti-CSP antibodies estimated to prevent 32% (95% confidence interval (CI) 24%–41%) of infections. The addition of RTS,S-induced CSP-specific CD4+ T cells was estimated to increase vaccine efficacy against infection to 40% (95% CI, 34%–48%). This protective efficacy is estimated to result from a 96.1% (95% CI, 93.4%–97.8%) reduction in the liver-to-blood parasite inoculum, indicating that in volunteers who developed P. falciparum infection, a small number of parasites (often the progeny of a single surviving sporozoite) are responsible for breakthrough blood-stage infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antibodies to the pre-erythrocytic antigens, circumsporozoite protein (CSP), thrombospondin-related adhesive protein (TRAP) and liver-stage antigen 1, have been measured in field studies of semiimmune adults and shown to correlate with protection from Plasmodium falciparum infection. A mathematical model is formulated to estimate the probability of sporozoite infection as a function of antibody titres to multiple pre-erythrocytic antigens. The variation in antibody titres from field data was used to estimate the relationship between the probability of P. falciparum infection per infectious mosquito bite and antibody titre. Using this relationship, we predict the effect of vaccinations that boost baseline CSP or TRAP antibody titres. Assuming the estimated relationship applies to vaccineinduced antibody titres, then single-component CSP or TRAP antibody-mediated pre-erythrocytic vaccines are likely to provide partial protection from infection, with vaccine efficacy of approximately 50 per cent depending on the magnitude of the vaccine-induced boost to antibody titres. It is possible that the addition of a TRAP component to a CSP-based vaccine such as RTS,S would provide an increase in infection-blocking efficacy of approximately 25 per cent should the problem of immunological interference between antigens be overcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Phase III trials of the malaria vaccine, RTS, S, are now underway across multiple sites of varying transmission intensity in Africa. Heterogeneity in exposure, vaccine response and waning of efficacy may bias estimates of vaccine efficacy. Methods: Theoretical arguments are used to identify the expected effects of a) heterogeneity in exposure to infectious bites; b) heterogeneity in individual's response to the vaccine; and c) waning efficacy on measures of vaccine efficacy from clinical trials for an infection-blocking vaccine. Results: Heterogeneity in exposure and vaccine response leads to a smaller proportion of trial participants becoming infected than one would expect in a homogeneous setting. This causes estimates of vaccine efficacy from clinical trials to be underestimated if transmission heterogeneity is ignored, and overestimated if heterogeneity in vaccine response is ignored. Waning of vaccine efficacy can bias estimates of vaccine efficacy in both directions. Conclusions: Failure to account for heterogeneities in exposure and response, and waning of efficacy in clinical trials can lead to biased estimates of malaria vaccine efficacy. Appropriate methods to reduce these biases need to be used to ensure accurate interpretation and comparability between trial sites of results from the upcoming Phase III clinical trials of RTS, S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]