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In the present context, the consumption and saving patterns are subjected to change both locally and worldwide. The evidence on consumption reveals the importance of data handling and processing using the most relevant tools available. This research paper looks into official statistics data of Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) for milling and baking products and is based on seasonal adjustment. As such, JDemetra+ software is selected as officially recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment. First section presents the official software recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment, while section two discusses the characteristics and functionalities of the software. Furthermore, the following section presents the selected seasonal adjustment technique and describes the usage of monthly data. Section four analysing the results of all the seasonality tests for the selected series is followed next by a brief concluding remarks and observations section. Moreover, in terms of the conducted analysis, the paper examines to test JDemetra+ 3.0.0 pre-release version against JDemetra+ 2.2.4. Evidence favouring JDemetra+ 2.2.4 is obtained, the results showing that some new strategies might be needed in order to obtain better results on seasonal adjustment process using TRAMO-SEATS in JDemetra+ 3.0.0. Seasonal adjustment practitioners in official statistics should be aware and recognize the impact of statistical package selection. In this respect, optimal selection of analysis procedures is needed in the evaluation of a series and thus migrating from JDemetra+ 2.2.4 to JDemetra+ 3.0.0 is problematic without employing resources in developing appropriate strategies for improvement of the obtained results.

Abrupt changes are a prevalent feature of financial data sets, such as prices of financial assets, returns of stocks, exchange rates, etc. An early warning system (EWS) can detect existing changes and predict possible future changes before they occur. Two important statistical models for change point detection and prediction are the regime-switching and threshold models. In the first model, the data set involves multiple structures that characterize the time series behaviours in different regimes. In a threshold model, change is detected as soon as a split variable passes a threshold. In this paper, by combining the two mentioned models, namely regime switching and threshold, an EWS for change point detection is designed. The underlying process for change detection obeys an AR(1) process. States are latent variables specifying whether a special time point is changed or not. They are realizations of the Markov chain. The predictive transition probabilities are determined by a threshold model based on adaptive recursive relations. This combination forms the mentioned EWS. Finally, two applications are given about change detection in stock returns and specifying business cycles.

This paper sets up a small open new Keynesian economy model with constrained households and incomplete markets to address the driving forces of business cycles in Korea. It shows that there exists a substantial fraction of constrained households who cannot have access to financial market. Furthermore, the estimated model reveals that a TANK model is better than a RANK model in explaining business cycles in Korea. The effect of domestic productivity shock on Korean economy has dominated in the variations of output, while the contribution of the foreign productivity shock to the variations of output and inflation has increased after the Asian financial crisis. The monetary policy shock has dominated the variation of inflation at short and medium horizons.

Households in emerging economies are subject to significant income risk and have low access to financial markets. Leveraging multiple administrative microdata sources, this paper documents significant heterogeneity in asset holdings, income, and income cyclicality across the distribution of Chilean households, as well as considerable income risk. Considering this evidence, we compare the transmission mechanisms between Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian models with search and matching (SAM) and sticky wage frictions (SW), and between one-liquid-asset (OA) and two-asset (TA) specifications. We propose a decomposition of consumption responses into direct, indirect, average, and cross-sectional effects. We show that the transmission mechanisms depend on the labor market setup: in SAM-OA the transmission operates through average and direct effects, while in SW-OA it is through cross-sectional effects. Assets also matter, the transmission in the SW-TA has stronger direct and average effects than SW-OA.

Abstract This paper quantifies empirically the macroeconomic and financial effects of Climate Policy Risk (CPR) in Switzerland. To do so, I develop a new CPR index using text analysis techniques on a large dataset of Swiss media articles. The identification of CPR shocks is achieved by using narrative restrictions around events which are likely to have coincided with an increase in the probability of adopting tighter climate policies. I find that CPR shocks are associated with a significant decline in real GDP and a decline in firm-level CO2 emissions. Using firm-level equity price data and rolling linear panel regressions, I document that CPR is increasingly reflected in asset prices. I further find that CO2-intensive firms perform significantly worse than their greener counterparts following events which increased transition risk. The results are in line with recent theoretical contributions.

The influence of energy prices on macroeconomic stability is analyzed in this paper. Energy prices represent significant supply-side shocks, which have been leading cyclical fluctuation triggers through economic history. The analysis includes the countries that were the members of the former SFRY, as well as the countries the members of the Višegrad Group. The indicators under observation are presented for the EU27 for the purposes of comparison. In accordance with economic theory, the main conclusion of the paper is that supply-side shocks can be a significant source of cyclical fluctuations and an inflation trigger. Therefore, policymakers have a complex task to minimize the effects of these shocks. Nowadays, when energy prices are reaching historically high levels, the scientific contribution of supply-side shocks can be found in the deep analysis and well-grounded estimations of the role of those shocks in the preservation of macroeconomic stability and the economic policy measures necessary for the minimization of their negative effects.

As Bagus and Howden (2010) highlighted, one of the paths to achieve a more fruitful understanding of the business cycle involves examining saving as a heterogeneous analytical category. The aim of this paper is to continue this line of inquiry using the capital-based framework developed by Garrison (2001). This paper contributes to the literature by studying the impact of heterogenous savings on economic growth and business cycles in a capital-based macroeconomics framework. With this aim the implications of disaggregated saving is analysed by means of the differential market signals that are generated by cash-build savings (Pătruți, 2017) and loanable funds accessible through the credit markets.

This paper critically examines the models of economic crises and business cycles devised by leading economists from the nineteenth century to the present day in the light of the current reflections on the limits of the so-called ‘mainstream’ theory. To this end, the article analyses the point of view of the classical authors (J.B. Say, Ricardo, Malthus and Sismondi) and the first analyses of crises in terms of business cycles (Tooke, Juglar, Jevons). It discusses then Tugan-Baranovsky and Arthur Spiethoff models, Wesley C. Mitchell contribution and the monetary explanations of the cycles during the 1920s (R.G. Hawtrey and Irving Fisher). It then examines the main interpretative models of cycles and crises during the 1930s: L. Mises and F. Hayek models, Irving Fisher’s Debt-deflation theory and Keynes contribution. The econometric approach of Frisch and Tinbergen and the ‘real business cycles’ model are then presented, as well as the ‘heterodox’ approach of Hyman Minsky. A main interpretative line of this paper is to maintain that, in spite of its complex taxonomy, modern analysis on business cycles and crises draws inspiration from two distinct methodological approaches that reflect radically different visions of how market economies actually work. The ‘majority’ view is the one shared by most marginalist and neoclassical authors and by the ‘New Classical Economists’. According to them, economic systems are intrinsically stable and tend to converge towards equilibrium. Fluctuations are caused by exogenous shocks bound to be reabsorbed quickly. Contrary to this view, two research approaches are identified having in common a marked attention to the institutional context. On the one hand, the contributions of Schumpeter and, to some extent, Mitchell who shared the belief that fluctuations should be studied with reference to a specific historical context. On the other hand, the analysis of J.M. Keynes and H. Minsky who believe that economic systems are potentially unstable, full employment cannot be taken for granted and appropriate policy measures are needed.

The paper explores variations in leverage ratios of industries grouped on the basis of business cycles – as growth industry, defensive industry and cyclical industry. Leverage is measured using Total debt to Net worth ratio, Long term debt to Net worth ratio and Short term debt to Net worth ratio. The debt ratios of industries are evaluated during two time phases– Phase I (2008/09 to 2012/13) and Phase II (2013/14 to 2017/18). The sample consists of 172 companies randomly selected from the largest 500 companies in India. The results suggest significant variations in the debt ratios of industries in each of the time phases. The results also show statistically significant variations in total and long-term debt ratios between Phase I and Phase II. The study is distinct as it gives a new insight into the capital structure decisions of industries using a novel industrial classification base.

This paper assesses data from 16 emerging economies between 2000-and 2020 to assess the relationship between business cycles and healthcare expenditure alongside other control variables. Using the Gaussian mixture model, this study analyses the relationship between healthcare spending and business cycles, urbanization, population age, environmental quality, and the gender ratio. The paper finds that there exists a counter-cyclical relationship between economic booms/recessions and healthcare expenditure such that spending decreases during booms and goes up during recessions. The study also finds evidence that environmental quality plays a vital role in influencing healthcare expenditure.

ABSTRACT This paper shows that income distribution can change dramatically during the business cycle. This finding contrasts with the widespread belief that income distribution changes slowly in the absence of wars and revolutions. Macroeconomics explains in good measure short-run variations in income distribution: inequality varies cyclically, and it increases with inflation and unemployment. Furthermore, at least in Brazil, the minimum wage legislation does not contribute to a better income distribution. There is also evidence that populist policies which lead to real appreciation cannot be justified as supporting the poor. Thus, the best way to help the poor is demonstrably not through the manipulation of prices and wages, but probably through macro stability and a transparent tax-transfer system.

This paper investigates the relationship between the gross value added (GVA) of Greece’s agricultural sector and the GVAs of the other sectors. The research considers both the relationship between value levels and the cycles of GVAs. Dynamic analysis using ARDL modeling shows that there is no cointegration between agricultural GVA and the other GVAs. However, there is an estimated cointegrating relationship between business cycles of agriculture and those of the rest of the economic sectors, with the cycles of services being the significant variable. Moreover, econometric analysis using NARDL modeling shows that there is a cointegrating relationship between the levels of GVAs as well, when asymmetricity—with respect to GVA changes of the services sector—is introduced.

This study aims to identify the underlying causes of variation in the time series and cross-sectional equity style returns in the emerging stock market of Pakistan. We use asset pricing models and incorporate variables reflecting business cycle fluctuations to assess the time-varying size and value premiums. The methodology of this paper involves constructing style portfolios based on firm-specific characteristics such as market capitalization, price to earnings ratio, book-to-market equity ratio, momentum, and asset growth. We find that the style portfolios earn abnormal returns consistently which cannot be explained either through asset pricing models or business cycles variables. However, the size and value premiums are found to be subsided during the troughs of economic cycles. The results suggest that the abnormal returns for style portfolios are likely driven by firm-specific characteristics rather than macroeconomic factors. Overall, this study contributes to the literature on style investing by providing insights into the profitability of equity style portfolios in the Pakistani equity market. Our findings have implications for stock picking, investment management and risk factor analysis.

The Great Recession has resulted in a seemingly permanent level shift in many macroeconomic variables. This paper presents a microfounded general equilibrium model featuring frictional labour markets and financial frictions that is able to replicate the business cycle features of establishment dynamics and generate the procyclicality of R&D expenditures. This makes it possible to demonstrate the channels through which productivity and financial shocks influence the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy, creating level shifts in its balanced growth path. The results indicate that financial shocks are an important driver of aggregate fluctuations and their influence is especially pronounced for establishment entry. Since the growth rate of the economy can in principle be affected by policy measures, the macroeconomic and welfare effects of applying several subsidy schemes are examined. Subsidising R&D expenditures and lowering barriers to entry were found to be welfare improving, in line with endogenous growth literature. At odds with this literature, static subsidies to incumbents’ operating costs were also found to be welfare improving, a result that only emerges under the stochastic setting.

This paper empirically verifies that the types of capital adjustment costs serve as an important mechanism in relation to investment decision-making after confirming that the investment dispersion of Korean firms is pro-cyclical and can affect business cycles. Specifically, it is found through empirical methods using corporate financial data that capital adjustment costs generally assumed to take a quadratic form in macroeconomics are asymmetric and irreversible in the Korean economy. In particular, capital adjustment costs are empirically proven to cause investment dispersion to expand given that the substitution effect of the marginal value to the marginal cost for one unit of investment in the inter-temporal investment decision is affected by that cost with regard to the resale of owned equipment assets, as opposed to new investments in equipment assets. We ultimately show, albeit indirectly, that investment dispersion can affect business cycles as capital adjustment costs influences investment decisions. What is implied is that the capital adjustment cost is not merely an exogenously deep parameter that fits the dynamics of business cycles in a macroeconomic model but could instead be a policy variable that can be endogenized through government policies.

This paper, in its exploratory nature, develops a descriptive empirical analysis which tries to capture the “regularities” underlying the relationship between the economy, fossil energy use and anthropogenic air pollutants at business cycle frequency. The analysis uses as framework the economy of the United States in the period 1990–2019. The results are organized in terms of “stylized facts” which, in their essential nature, provide a rough idea of the cyclical interactions between the variables of interest. In addition to this, they also act as a benchmark to assess how well theoretical macroeconomic models are able to mimic the reality. A first result is the relatively high volatility characterizing both fossil energy use and air pollutants with respect to the business cycle. A second result is the moderately high procyclicality between fossil energy use, in particular oil, and the business cycle. Among air pollutants, CO2 and CO share a moderately high level of procyclicality. With few exceptions, the other pollutants are only weakly associated with the business cycle.

This paper provides an accurate chronology of the Spanish reference business cycle adapting a multiple change-point model. In that approach, each combination of peaks and troughs dated in a set of economic indicators is assumed to be a realization of a mixture of bivariate Gaussian distributions, whose number of components is estimated from the data. The means of each of these components refer to the dates of the reference turning points. The transitions across the components of the mixture are governed by Markov chain that is restricted to force left-to-right transition dynamic. In the empirical application, seven recessions in the period from February 1970 to February 2020 are identified, which are in high concordance with the timing of the turning point dates established by the Spanish Business Cycle Dating Committee (SBCDC).