Search

Abstract Background Individual and environmental health outcomes are frequently linked to changes in the diversity of associated microbial communities. Thus, deriving health indicators based on microbiome diversity measures is essential. While microbiome data generated using high-throughput 16S rRNA marker gene surveys are appealing for this purpose, 16S surveys also generate a plethora of spurious microbial taxa. Results When this artificial inflation in the observed number of taxa is ignored, we find that changes in the abundance of detected taxa confound current methods for inferring differences in richness. Experimental evidence, theory-guided exploratory data analyses, and existing literature support the conclusion that most sub-genus discoveries are spurious artifacts of clustering 16S sequencing reads. We proceed to model a 16S survey’s systematic patterns of sub-genus taxa generation as a function of genus abundance to derive a robust control for false taxa accumulation. These controls unlock classical regression approaches for highly flexible differential richness inference at various levels of the surveyed microbial assemblage: from sample groups to specific taxa collections. The proposed methodology for differential richness inference is available through an R package, Prokounter. Conclusions False species discoveries bias richness estimation and confound differential richness inference. In the case of 16S microbiome surveys, supporting evidence indicate that most sub-genus taxa are spurious. Based on this finding, a flexible method is proposed and is shown to overcome the confounding problem noted with current approaches for differential richness inference. Package availability: https://github.com/mskb01/prokounter

Abstract Background Count data derived from high-throughput deoxy-ribonucliec acid (DNA) sequencing is frequently used in quantitative molecular assays. Due to properties inherent to the sequencing process, unnormalized count data is compositional, measuring relative and not absolute abundances of the assayed features. This compositional bias confounds inference of absolute abundances. Commonly used count data normalization approaches like library size scaling/rarefaction/subsampling cannot correct for compositional or any other relevant technical bias that is uncorrelated with library size. Results We demonstrate that existing techniques for estimating compositional bias fail with sparse metagenomic 16S count data and propose an empirical Bayes normalization approach to overcome this problem. In addition, we clarify the assumptions underlying frequently used scaling normalization methods in light of compositional bias, including scaling methods that were not designed directly to address it. Conclusions Compositional bias, induced by the sequencing machine, confounds inferences of absolute abundances. We present a normalization technique for compositional bias correction in sparse sequencing count data, and demonstrate its improved performance in metagenomic 16s survey data. Based on the distribution of technical bias estimates arising from several publicly available large scale 16s count datasets, we argue that detailed experiments specifically addressing the influence of compositional bias in metagenomics are needed.

Dengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. In recent decades, dengue fever has spread throughout the world. In 2014 and 2015, southern Taiwan experienced its most serious dengue outbreak in recent years. Some statistical models have been established in the past, however, these models may not be suitable for predicting huge outbreaks in 2014 and 2015. The control of dengue fever has become the primary task of local health agencies. This study attempts to predict the occurrence of dengue fever in order to achieve the purpose of timely warning. We applied a newly developed autoregressive model (AR model) to assess the association between daily weather variability and daily dengue case number in 2014 and 2015 in Kaohsiung, the largest city in southern Taiwan. This model also contained additional lagged weather predictors, and developed 5-day-ahead and 15-day-ahead predictive models. Our results indicate that numbers of dengue cases in Kaohsiung are associated with humidity and the biting rate (BR). Our model is simple, intuitive and easy to use. The developed model can be embedded in a "real-time" schedule, and the data (at present) can be updated daily or weekly based on the needs of public health workers. In this study, a simple model using only meteorological factors performed well. The proposed real-time forecast model can help health agencies take public health actions to mitigate the influences of the epidemic.

Drawing on a long history in macroecology, correlation analysis of microbiome datasets is becoming a common practice for identifying relationships or shared ecological niches among bacterial taxa. However, many of the statistical issues that plague such analyses in macroscale communities remain unresolved for microbial communities. Here, we discuss problems in the analysis of microbial species correlations based on presence-absence data. We focus on presence-absence data because this information is more readily obtainable from sequencing studies, especially for whole-genome sequencing, where abundance estimation is still in its infancy. First, we show how Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and Jaccard's index (J)-two of the most common metrics for correlation analysis of presence-absence data-can contradict each other when applied to a typical microbiome dataset. In our dataset, for example, 14% of species-pairs predicted to be significantly correlated by r were not predicted to be significantly correlated using J, while 37.4% of species-pairs predicted to be significantly correlated by J were not predicted to be significantly correlated using r. Mismatch was particularly common among species-pairs with at least one rare species (