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Orientation: Although all African governments recognise the importance of stimulating greater intra-regional trade, the process of turning policy into action has proved to be difficult. Research purpose: Several studies have examined the broad effects of free trade areas in Africa and how the removal of tariffs and other trade barriers impacts member countries. However, no studies appear to have been conducted on the effects of a targeted reduction in trade divisions based on untapped export potential. Motivation for the study: Many divisions stifle trade on the African continent, from limited market access and poor infrastructure to unwieldy regulatory frameworks and a lack of information on trade opportunities that hinder greater intra-regional trade. Research approach/design and method: This study sets out to address the research gap by translating the potential trade values of the identified untapped intra-regional trade opportunities between African countries into (Global Trade Analysis Project) GTAP model shocks. This involved determining what the increase in trade efficiency (or reduction in trade divisions) must be, in addition to the removal of all tariffs, to deliver the estimated potential increase in trade for the identified trade opportunities. Main findings: The study found that in addition to the removal of tariffs, targeted increases in trade efficiency phased in over time produce much higher economic gains than a once-off trade efficiency shock. Practical/managerial implications: The welfare gains of many of the smaller African economies are higher under this phased approach, and it is not mostly the bigger, more industrialised economies that benefit most. Contribution/value-add: The results cast new light on the potential of African countries to leverage untapped trade opportunities to increase intra-regional trade among small and large economies alike.

Background: Regional trade could be a powerful engine of economic growth and sustainable job creation. However, South Africa’s exports to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are typically smaller and more short-lived than its exports to its traditional markets. This is despite South African policymakers considering trade with SSA to be a priority. Aim: The aim of the article is to evaluate South Africa’s utilisation of sustained export potential in SSA with a view to providing practical insights that will inform future policymaking and planning. Setting: Despite the priority attention given to SSA in the country’s trade policy, South Africa is yet to make meaningful inroads into SSA’s largest and fastest-growing economies. Method: The research method applied comprised three steps. The first step involved the identification, over a five-year period from 2010 to 2014, of consistently large and/or growing import demand in SSA for all products at the Harmonised System (HS) six-digit level, as well as the identification of products South Africa consistently exported competitively (sustainable exports). The second step entailed matching SSA markets with consistently large and/or growing import demand to South Africa’s sustainable exports. The third step involved evaluating South Africa’s utilisation of sustained export potential in SSA. Results: The results reveal that South Africa is utilising just over half (54%) of its sustained export potential in SSA. Conclusion: South Africa is, therefore, underutilising or not utilising close to 50% of its sustained export potential in SSA. Most of the export potential that South Africa is utilising is in Eastern Africa while most of the export potential that the country is underutilising and not utilising at all is in Central and Western Africa.

Despite the surging demand for imports in South America in recent years, South Africa’s exports to the region have shown relatively low growth. A contributing factor is the prevalence of trade barriers between South Africa and various South American countries. The aim of this study is, firstly, to measure the trade barriers to South Africa’s exports to South America and, secondly, to identify high-potential export opportunities in the form of product-country combinations that can best surmount such barriers. The investigation, which uses a reconstructed Decision Support Model (DSM), reveals that Brazil, Argentina and Chile offer the greatest potential as export markets (in US$ terms) for South Africa, while the most promising product categories are transport-related goods, minerals, vegetables and chemicals. The results of this study should be a useful guide to South Africans planning export initiatives in South America.