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Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become a standard treatment option for patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis. Elderly high-risk patients treated with TAVI have a high residual mortality due to preexisting comorbidities. Knowledge of factors predicting futility after TAVI is sparse and clinical tools to aid the preoperative evaluation are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate if echocardiographic measures, including speckle-tracking analysis, in addition to clinical parameters, could aid in the prediction of mortality beyond 30 days after TAVI.Methods: This prospective observational cohort study included 227 patients treated with TAVI at the University Hospital of North Norway, Tromsø and Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet from February 2010 to June 2013. All the patients underwent preoperative echocardiographic evaluation with retrospective speckle-tracking analysis. Primary endpoints were 1- and 2-year mortality beyond 30 days after TAVI.Results: All-cause 1- and 2-year mortality beyond 30 days after TAVI was 12.1 and 19.5%, respectively. Predictors of 1-year mortality beyond 30 days were body mass index [hazard ratio (HR): 0.88, 95% CI: 0.80–0.98, p = 0.018], previous myocardial infarction (HR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.14–6.32, p = 0.023), and systolic pulmonary artery pressure ≥ 60 mm Hg (HR: 5.93, 95% CI: 1.67–21.1, p = 0.006). Moderate-to-severe mitral regurgitation (HR: 2.93, 95% CI: 1.53–5.63, p = 0.001), estimated glomerular filtration rate (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.96–0.99, p = 0.002), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.01–3.58, p = 0.046) were predictors of 2-year mortality.Conclusion: Both the clinical and echocardiographic parameters should be considered when evaluating high-risk patients for TAVI, as both are predictive of 1-and 2-year mortality. Our results support the importance of individual risk assessment using a multidisciplinary, multimodal, and individual approach.

Abstract Objectives Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI)‐specific risk scores have been developed based on large registry studies. Our aim was to evaluate how both surgical and novel TAVI risk scores performed in predicting all cause 30‐day mortality. In addition, we wanted to explore the validity of our own previously developed model in a separate and more recent cohort. Methods The derivation cohort included patients not eligible for open surgery treated with TAVI at the University Hospital of North Norway (UNN) and Oslo University Hospital (OUS) from February 2010 through June 2013. From this cohort, a logistic prediction model (UNN/OUS) for all cause 30‐day mortality was developed. The validation cohort consisted of patients not included in the derivation cohort and treated with TAVI at UNN between June 2010 and April 2017. EuroSCORE, Logistic EuroSCORE, EurosSCORE 2, STS score, German AV score, OBSERVANT score, IRRMA score, and FRANCE‐2 score were calculated for both cohorts. The discriminative accuracy of each score, including our model, was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and compared using DeLong test where P