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Abstract Background A controversy exists about the potential effect of childhood varicella vaccination on Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence. Mathematical models projected temporary HZ incidence increase after vaccine introduction that was not confirmed by real-world evidence. These models assume that absence of contacts with infected children would prevent exogenous boosting of Varicella-Zoster-Virus (VZV) immunity and they do not include an endogenous VZV immunity-boosting mechanism following asymptomatic VZV reactivation. This study aims to explore the effect of various assumptions on exogenous and endogenous VZV immunity-boosting on HZ incidence in the general population after introduction of routine childhood varicella vaccination. Methods An age-structured dynamic transmission model was adapted and fitted to the seroprevalence of varicella in France in absence of vaccination using the empirical contact matrix. A two-dose childhood varicella vaccination schedule was introduced at 12 and 18 months. Vaccine efficacy was assumed at 65%/95% (dose 1/dose 2), and coverage at 90%/80% (dose 1/dose 2). Exogenous boosting intensity was based on assumptions regarding HZ-immunity duration, age-dependent boosting effect, and HZ reactivation rates fitted to observed HZ incidence. Endogenous boosting was the same as pre-vaccination exogenous boosting but constant over time, whilst exogenous boosting depended on the force of infection. Five scenarios were tested with different weightings of exogenous (Exo) - endogenous (Endo) boosting: 100%Exo–0%Endo, 75%Exo–25%Endo, 50%Exo–50%Endo, 25%Exo–75%Endo, 0%Exo–100%Endo. Results HZ incidence before varicella vaccination, all ages combined, was estimated at 3.96 per 1000 person-years; it decreased by 64% by year 80 post vaccine introduction, for all boosting assumptions. The 100%Exo-0%Endo boosting scenario, predicted an increase in HZ incidence for the first 21 years post vaccine introduction with a maximum increase of 3.7% (4.1/1000) at year 9. However, with 0%Exo-100%Endo boosting scenario an immediate HZ decline was projected. The maximum HZ incidence increases at 10, 3, and 2 years post vaccination were 1.8% (75%Exo-25%Endo), 0.8% (50%Exo-50%Endo) and 0.2% (25%Exo-75%Endo), respectively. Conclusions Assuming modest levels of endogenous boosting, the increase in HZ incidence following childhood varicella vaccination was smaller and lasted for a shorter period compared with 100%Exo-0%Endo boosting assumption. Endogenous boosting mechanism could partly explain the divergence between previous HZ-incidence projections and real-world evidence.

Introduction: Varicella, although a frequently benign childhood disease, nevertheless represents a considerable health burden. WHO recommends including varicella vaccines in universal routine vaccination programs, and maintaining coverage >80%. Many countries have successfully introduced varicella vaccination and have benefited from lower disease burden, but many others have not adopted the vaccine. Reasons include cost commitment for a ‘mild childhood disease’ or concerns that vaccination will shift varicella to older age groups or increase herpes zoster incidence. Areas covered: This literature review summarizes the effectiveness and epidemiological impact of varicella immunization programs. Expert commentary: Varicella vaccines are immunogenic with acceptable safety profiles. One and two dose schedules are highly effective against varicella and large reductions in disease incidence, particularly moderate-severe disease, have been widely reported. There is currently no evidence to suggest that the introduction of varicella vaccination results in a shift of varicella disease burden to older age groups. Although epidemiological studies have shown an increased incidence of herpes zoster since the vaccines were launched, there are many other contributing factors, and indeed, this secular trend was evident before their introduction. In conclusion, varicella vaccination easily fits into existing immunization programs and significantly reduces the often underestimated burden of varicella.

The amino acid substitution of aspartic acid to glycine in hemagglutinin (HA) in position 222 (HA-D222G) as well as HA-222D/G polymorphism of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza viruses (A(H1N1)pdm09) were frequently reported in severe influenza in humans and mice. Their impact on viral pathogenicity and the course of influenza has been discussed controversially and the underlying mechanism remained unclarified. In the present study, BALB/c mice, infected with the once mouse lung- and cell-passaged A(H1N1)pdm09 isolate A/Jena/5258/09 (mpJena/5258), developed severe pneumonia. From day 2 to 3 or 4 post infection (p.i.) symptoms (body weight loss and clinical score) continuously worsened. After a short disease stagnation or even recovery phase in most mice, severity of disease further increased on days 6 and 7 p.i. Thereafter, surviving mice recovered. A 45 times higher virus titer maximum in the lung than in the trachea on day 2 p.i. and significantly higher tracheal virus titers compared to lung on day 6 p.i. indicated changes in the organ tropism during infection. Sequence analysis revealed an HA-222D/G polymorphism. HA-D222 and HA-G222 variants co-circulated in lung and trachea. Whereas, HA-D222 variant predominated in the lung, HA-G222 became the major variant in the trachea after day 4 p.i. This was accompanied by lower neutralizing antibody titers and broader receptor recognition including terminal sialic acid α-2,3-linked galactose, which is abundant on mouse trachea epithelial cells. Plaque-purified HA-G222-mpJena/5258 virus induced severe influenza with maximum symptom on day 6 p.i. These results demonstrated for the first time that HA-222D/G quasispecies of A(H1N1)pdm09 caused severe biphasic influenza because of fast viral intra-host evolution, which enabled partial antibody escape and minor changes in receptor binding.

Recent epidemiological developments demonstrated that gene segments of swine influenza A viruses can account for antigenic changes as well as reduced drug susceptibility of pandemic influenza A viruses. This raises questions about the efficacy of preventive measures against swine influenza A viruses. Here, the protective effect of vaccination was compared with that of prophylactic Tamiflu® treatment against two Eurasian swine influenza A viruses. 11-week-old pigs were infected by aerosol nebulisation with high doses of influenza virus A/swine/Potsdam/15/1981 (H1N1/1981, heterologous challenge to H1N1 vaccine strain) and A/swine/Bakum/1832/2000 (H1N2/2000, homologous challenge to H1N2 vaccine strain) in two independent trials. In each trial (i) 10 pigs were vaccinated twice with a trivalent vaccine (RESPIPORC® FLU3; 28 and 7 days before infection), (ii) another 10 pigs received 150 mg/day of Tamiflu® for 5 days starting 12 h before infection, and (iii) 12 virus-infected pigs were left unvaccinated and untreated and served as controls. Both viruses replicated efficiently in porcine respiratory organs causing influenza with fever, dyspnoea, and pneumonia. Tamiflu® treatment as well as vaccination prevented clinical signs and significantly reduced virus shedding. Whereas after homologous challenge with H1N2/2000 no infectious virus in lung and hardly any lung inflammation were detected, the virus titre was not and the lung pathology was only partially reduced in H1N1/1981, heterologous challenged pigs. Tamiflu® application did not affect these study parameters. In conclusion, all tested preventive measures provided protection against disease. Vaccination additionally prevented virus replication and histopathological changes in the lung of homologous challenged pigs.