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Abstract Tropical forests cover large areas of equatorial Africa and play a substantial role in the global carbon cycle. However, there has been a lack of biometric measurements to understand the forests’ gross and net primary productivity (GPP, NPP) and their allocation. Here we present a detailed field assessment of the carbon budget of multiple forest sites in Africa, by monitoring 14 one-hectare plots along an aridity gradient in Ghana, West Africa. When compared with an equivalent aridity gradient in Amazonia, the studied West African forests generally had higher productivity and lower carbon use efficiency (CUE). The West African aridity gradient consistently shows the highest NPP, CUE, GPP, and autotrophic respiration at a medium-aridity site, Bobiri. Notably, NPP and GPP of the site are the highest yet reported anywhere for intact forests. Widely used data products substantially underestimate productivity when compared to biometric measurements in Amazonia and Africa. Our analysis suggests that the high productivity of the African forests is linked to their large GPP allocation to canopy and semi-deciduous characteristics.

The rapid development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 altered the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. In most countries, vaccinations were initially targeted at high-risk populations, including older individuals and healthcare workers. Now, despite substantial infection- and vaccine-induced immunity in host populations worldwide, waning immunity and the emergence of novel variants continue to cause significant waves of infection and disease. Policy makers must determine how to deploy booster vaccinations, particularly when constraints in vaccine supply, delivery and cost mean that booster vaccines cannot be administered to everyone. A key question is therefore whether older individuals should again be prioritised for vaccination, or whether alternative strategies (e.g. offering booster vaccines to the individuals who have most contacts with others and therefore drive infection) can instead offer indirect protection to older individuals. Here, we use mathematical modelling to address this question, considering SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a range of countries with different socio-economic backgrounds. We show that the population structures of different countries can have a pronounced effect on the impact of booster vaccination, even when identical booster vaccination targeting strategies are adopted. However, under the assumed transmission model, prioritising older individuals for booster vaccination consistently leads to the most favourable public health outcomes in every setting considered. This remains true for a range of assumptions about booster vaccine supply and timing, and for different assumed policy objectives of booster vaccination.

Abstract There is a need for quality longitudinal data on the health and well-being of young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (hereafter Aboriginal) in Alice Springs that can be used for research, planning and evaluation. The primary aim of this descriptive qualitative study was to determine whether or not a proposed cohort study would be acceptable to the local community. The proposed cohort study will prospectively examine various factors, events and exposures in early life that give Aboriginal children the best chance to grow up strong and lead a healthy happy life. Decisions on specific priority issues to be addressed and study procedures will be determined by local Aboriginal researchers and community members during a future co-design phase. 27 semi-structured interviews and 3 focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted with a range of community stakeholders and parents/caregivers of young Aboriginal children from Alice Springs in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia. Audio recorded data were transcribed and imported into NVivo12 qualitative software for reflexive thematic analysis. Three major themes concerning acceptability of the concept were constructed from the analysis: (1) Have to be mindful, (2) Duplication of data, and (3) “It’s gotta be done right way”. There was general support for the concept, however, many participants felt that a cautious and slow approach was necessary. Recommendations included focusing on building trust, taking it slow, and ensuring the study is conducted by local Aboriginal researchers. Barriers to feasibility noted included the high mobility of families, competing demands, and privacy concerns. Findings from this qualitative study support the feasibility and acceptability of a future cohort study of young Aboriginal children in Alice Springs. Leadership from respected local Aboriginal researchers and key stakeholders will be critical to its success.

Understanding the potential impacts of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is important for pandemic planning. Here, the authors develop a model incorporating hypothetical new variants with varying transmissibility and immune evasion properties, and use it to project possible future epidemic waves in the UK.

Introduction The Banned Drinker Register (BDR) was reintroduced in the Northern Territory (NT) in September 2017. The BDR is a supply reduction measure and involves placing people who consume alcohol at harmful levels on a register prohibiting the purchase, possession and consumption of alcohol. The current study aims to evaluate the impacts of the reintroduction of the BDR, in the context of other major alcohol policy initiatives introduced across the NT such as Police Auxiliary Liquor Inspectors and a minimum unit price for alcohol of US$1.30 per standard drink.Methods and analyses The Learning from Alcohol (policy) Reforms in the Northern Territory project will use a mixed-methods approach and contain four major components: epidemiological analysis of trends over time (outcomes include health, justice and social welfare data); individual-level data linkage including those on the BDR (outcomes include health and justice data); qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in the NT (n≥50); and qualitative interviews among people who are, or were previously, on the BDR, as well as the families and communities connected to those on the BDR (n=150). The impacts of the BDR on epidemiological data will be examined using time series analysis. Linked data will use generalised mixed models to analyse the relationship between outcomes and exposures, utilising appropriate distributions. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis.Ethics and dissemination Ethics approvals have been obtained from NT Department of Health and Menzies School of Health Research Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC), Central Australia HREC and Deakin University HREC. In addition to peer-reviewed publications, we will report our findings to key organisational, policy, government and community stakeholders via conferences, briefings and lay summaries.

Different aspects of biodiversity may not necessarily converge in their response to climate change. Here, the authors investigate 25-year shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of tropical forests along a spatial climate gradient in West Africa, showing that drier forests are less stable than wetter forests.

The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission-successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individuals that remain, complete relaxation of controls is likely to generate a substantial further outbreak. Vaccination remains the only foreseeable means of both containing the infection and returning to normal interactions and behaviour. Here, we consider the optimal targeting of vaccination within the UK, with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses. We show that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and may be sufficient to stem the epidemic if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.