Search

Fewer than one in four Americans (23%) are currently in a formal educational setting—a school, college, or university (U.S. Census 2018). Many of the 77% who are not in school, have a distorted view of the Polar Regions—literally distorted as the typical Mercator projection stretches Antarctica into an enormous white band in the south, and Greenland looks larger than Africa in the north. As recently as 2008, climate change was not typically part of K-12 curriculum (Kastens and Turrin 2008). The greatest strides have been accomplished with the 2013 introduction of the Next Generation Science Standards and the inclusion of climate change in their Disciplinary Core Ideas for instruction (NGSS 2013), but this occurred well after most Americans graduated and NGSS has not been fully adopted by all 50 states. Taken together, these factors call for creative methods for delivering both polar and climate education to the broader public.

Abstract Sea ice will persist longer in the Last Ice Area (LIA), north of Canada and Greenland, than elsewhere in the Arctic. We combine earth system model ensembles with a sea‐ice tracking utility (SITU) to explore sources of sea ice (the “ice shed”) to the LIA under two scenarios: continued high warming (HW) rates and low warming (LW) rates (mean global warming below ca. 2°C) through the 21st century. Until mid‐century, the two scenarios yield similar results: the primary ice source shifts from the Russian continental shelves to the central Arctic, mobility increases, and mean ice age in the LIA drops from about 7 years to less than one. After about 2050, sea ice stabilizes in the LW scenario, but continues to decline in the HW scenario until LIA sea ice is nearly entirely seasonal and locally formed. Sea ice pathways through the ice shed determine LIA ice conditions and transport of material, including biota, sediments, and pollutants (spilled oil and industrial or agricultural contaminants have been identified as potential hazards). This study demonstrates that global warming has a dramatic impact on the sources, pathways and ages of ice entering the LIA. Therefore, we suggest that maintaining ice quality and preserving ice‐obligate ecologies in the LIA, including the Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area north of Nunavut, Canada, will require international governance. The SITU system used in this study is publicly available as an online utility to support researchers, policy analysts, and educators interested in past and future sea ice sources and trajectories.

Abstract The Arctic is undergoing a rapid transition toward a seasonal ice regime, with widespread implications for the polar ecosystem, human activities, as well as the global climate. Here we focus on how the changing ice cover impacts transborder exchange of sea ice between the exclusive economic zones of the Arctic states. We use the Sea Ice Tracking Utility, which follows ice floes from formation to melt, in conjunction with output diagnostics from two ensembles of the Community Earth System Model that follow different future emissions scenarios. The Community Earth System Model projects that by midcentury, transnational ice exchange will more than triple, with the largest increase in the amount of transnational ice originating from Russia and the Central Arctic. However, long‐distance ice transport pathways are predicted to diminish in favor of ice exchanged between neighboring countries. By the end of the 21st century, we see a large difference between the two future emissions scenarios considered: Consistent nearly ice‐free summers under the high emissions scenario act to reduce the total fraction of transnational ice exchange compared to midcentury, whereas the low emissions scenario continues to see an increase in the proportion of transnational ice. Under both scenarios, transit times are predicted to decrease to less than 2 yr by 2100, compared to a maximum of 6 yr under present‐day conditions and 2.5 yr by midcentury. These significant changes in ice exchange and transit time raise important concerns regarding risks associated with ice‐rafted contaminants.

Climate change is a highly complex social-ecological problem characterized by system-type dynamics that are important to communicate in a variety of settings, ranging from formal education to decision makers to informal education of the general public. Educational games are one approach that may enhance systems thinking skills. This study used a randomized controlled experiment to compare the impact on the mental models of participants of an educational card game vs. an illustrated article about the Arctic social-ecological system. A total of 41 participants (game: n = 20; reading: n = 21) created pre- and post-intervention mental models of the system, based on a "fuzzy cognitive mapping" approach. Maps were analyzed using network statistics. Both reading the article and playing the game resulted in measurable increases in systems understanding. The group reading the article perceived a more complex system after the intervention, with overall learning gains approximately twice those of the game players. However, game players demonstrated similar learning gains as article readers regarding the climate system, actions both causing environmental problems and protecting the Arctic, as well as the importance of the base- and mid-levels of the food chain. These findings contribute to the growing evidence showing that games are important resources to include as strategies for building capacity to understand and steward sustainable social-ecological systems, in both formal and informal education.