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The Mediterranean Sea represents the lower latitudinal limit of the European sprat range, where it is considered a sentinel species favoring temperate–cold temperatures. Sprattus sprattus is a plankton feeder that plays an important ecological role in contributing to the transfer of energy from lower to higher trophic levels, but climate-driven increases in sea temperatures may reduce the suitability of the pelagic habitat and threaten the tropho-dynamic role of sprat in areas such as the Adriatic Sea. The latter is an enclosed basin characterized by shallow waters and high annual temperature variations. Here, to investigate present and future habitat suitability areas for sprat, we applied four species distribution models (SDMs) using fishery-independent data collected from 2004 to 2021, along with remotely sensed and modeled environmental variables. A set of nine environmental predictors was tested, and the resulting best model was averaged in an ensemble model approach. The best ensemble models revealed good to high accuracy (sensitivity and specificity ≥ 0.8). The sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration emerged as the main explanatory variables in predicting the potential habitat of sprats, followed by bathymetry. The resulting probability of occurrence maps revealed that the species is bounded in the northern Adriatic Sea, where a longitudinal shift of high-suitability habitats from inshore to deeper and colder waters was detected between early and late summer. Future projections under IPCC representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 (intermediate emission) and 8.5 (high emission-warm) underline small changes along with a gain of new areas in late summer in the short-term period up to 2050. Conversely, the temperature increase projected for the end of the century is predicted to cause a loss of suitable habitat area for sprats of up to 88% under a high emission-warm scenario relative to current habitat occupancy throughout the basin.

The status of fishery resources in the Mediterranean Sea is critical: most of the fish and shellfish stocks are in overexploitation and only half of them are routinely assessed. This manuscript presents the use of Surplus Production Models (SPMs) as a valid option to increase the number of assessed stocks, with specific attention to the Adriatic basin. Particularly, the stock of European sprat (Sprattus sprattus), Mediterranean horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus), and Atlantic horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) living in the Adriatic Sea have been evaluated comparing three SPMs: Catch Maximum Sustainable Yields (CMSY), Stochastic surplus Production model in Continuous Time (SPiCT), and Abundance Maximum Sustainable Yields (AMSY). The different approaches present some variations; however, they generally agree on describing all the stocks close to the reference values for both biomass and fishing mortality in the most recent year. For the European sprat, AMSY results are the most robust model for this species’ survey data allow depicting a clearer picture of the history of this stock. Indeed, for the horse mackerel species, CMSY or SPiCT results are the preferred models, since for these species landings are not negligible. Notwithstanding, age-structured assessments remain the most powerful approach for evaluating the status of resources, but SPMs have proved to be a powerful tool in a data-limited context.

We observed interannual changes in the temperature and salinity of the surface layer of the Adriatic Sea when measured during the period 2005–2020. We observed non-stationarity and a positive linear trend in the series of mixed layer depth, heat storage, and potential energy anomalies. This non-stationarity was related to the climate regime that prevailed between 2011 and 2017. We observed significant changes in the interannual variability of salinity above and below the mixed layer depth and a positive difference in the surface barrier layer. In an effort to reconstruct the cause of this phenomenon, a multi-stage investigation was conducted. The first suspected culprit was the change in wind regime over the Mediterranean and Northeast Atlantic regions in September. Using the growing neural gas algorithm, September wind fields over the past 40 years were classified into nine distinct patterns. Further analysis of the CTD data indicated an increase in heat storage, a physical property of the Adriatic Sea known to be strongly influenced by the inflow of warm water masses controlled by the bimodal oscillating system (BiOS). The observed increase in salinity confirmed the assumption that BiOS activity affects heat storage. Unexpectedly, this analysis showed that an inverse vertical salinity profile was present during the summer months of 2015, 2017, and 2020, which can only be explained by salinity changes being a dominant factor. In addition, the aforementioned wind regime caused an increase in energy loss through latent energy dissipation, contributing to an even larger increase in salinity. While changes in the depth of the mixed layer in the Adriatic are usually due to temperature changes, this phenomenon was primarily caused by abrupt changes in salinity due to a combination of BiOS and local factors. This is the first record of such an event.

The potential impacts of marine aquaculture are reviewed, focusing both on small-scale local effects near the farm environment and a broad spatial scale that impacts a number of different ecosystem components. Local changes in productivity, biodiversity, and behavioral changes of wild fauna affected by nearby farm habitats were examined. Global aquaculture trends of growth perspectives as related to seafood supply, impacts on wild stock and biodiversity depletion, genetic changes in wild fish populations due to the escapement of cultured fish, capture-based aquaculture, and its potential impacts on marine habitats were discussed. Adopting integrated principles in planning aquaculture development and respecting the assimilative capacity of a potential farming zone may reduce negative consequences of the aquaculture industry on the marine ecosystem.

Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, L.) is one of the most important commercial species of the northern and central Adriatic Sea, as well as one of the most productive fisheries in the whole Mediterranean. In the Adriatic Sea the stock of anchovy is shared between Italy, Croatia and Slovenia. A joint stock assessment was carried out using catch data from all the fleets for the time interval 1975-2009. Analyses were performed using estimates of natural mortality at age obtained by means of two different methods and two population dynamics methods based on the analysis of catch-at-age data: Laurec-Sheperd virtual population analysis (VPA) and integrated catch-at-age (ICA), both tuned to acoustic estimates of abundance. Gislason’s estimates for natural mortality appeared to be more realistic and were thus preferred for short-lived species. The general trend of biomass and fishing mortality is similar for the two models, highlighting the major collapse of the stock in 1987. Nevertheless, ICA has enough flexibility to combine all the data available without adding too much complexity in comparison with a VPA approach and seems to perform better in terms of the spawning stock biomass/recruitment relationship and diagnostics (i.e. the retrospective pattern). For the stock status, the exploitation rate from ICA is higher than the suggested threshold of 0.4 proposed by Patterson for small pelagic species.

The sustained exploitation of marine populations requires an understanding of a species' adaptive seascape so that populations can track environmental changes from short- and long-term climate cycles and from human development. The analysis of the distributions of genetic markers among populations, together with correlates of life-history and environmental variability, can provide insights into the extent of adaptive variation. Here, we examined genetic variability among populations of mature European anchovies (n = 531) in the Adriatic (13 samples) and Tyrrhenian seas (2 samples) with neutral and putative non-neutral microsatellite loci. These genetic markers failed to confirm the occurrence of two anchovy species in the Adriatic Sea, as previously postulated. However, we found fine-scale population structure in the Adriatic, especially in northern areas, that was associated with four of the 13 environmental variables tested. Geographic gradients in sea temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen appear to drive adaptive differences in spawning time and early larval development among populations. Resolving adaptive seascapes in Adriatic anchovies provides a means to understand mechanisms underpinning local adaptation and a basis for optimizing exploitation strategies for sustainable harvests.