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Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control measures presented impediments for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programming in Uganda. Nationwide control measures implemented April—June 2020 included a public transport ban and mandatory travel permits for pregnant women to access clinics. Program adaptations instituted for continuity of services included community drug delivery and home-based DNA-PCR testing for HIV-exposed infants (HEI). We examined the effect of COVID-19 control measures and program adaptations on PMTCT service uptake in central Uganda. Methods We analysed data for pregnant women living with HIV (WLHIV) and HEI receiving PMTCT services in eight districts in central Uganda. We abstracted data from medical records at 96 public clinics for six months pre-lockdown (October 2019–March 2020), three months of lockdown (April–June 2020), and six months post-lockdown (July–December 2020). We measured monthly antiretroviral therapy (ART) refill attendance, health facility deliveries, and timely DNA-PCR testing of HEI for HIV (within two months of birth). We conducted segmented ordinary least squares regression of interrupted time series and adjusted for month-to-month changes using Cumby-Huizinga test. We reported results using coefficients and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results At the start of pre-lockdown (October 2019), there were 448 deliveries, 2,676 ART refills and 556 timely HEI tests. The pre-lockdown trend for ART refills increased while deliveries and HEI tests declined. At the start of lockdown (April 2020), all indicators declined, although significantly for facility deliveries (-60; 95% CI: -102, -18). Lockdown monthly trends were positive with 68 more HEI tested per month (95% CI:42, 93) and 51 more deliveries (95% CI: 9, 94) but insignificantly negative for ART refills. At start of post-lockdown (July 2020), HEI testing declined (-28; 95%CI: -48, -8). Post-lockdown HEI testing trend was negative with 70 fewer HEI tested per month (95%CI: -79, -62) while no difference in trend for deliveries and ART refills. Conclusion COVID-19 control measures had a significant immediate negative impact on pregnancy deliveries at health facilities. During lockdown, all service rates rapidly recovered through program adaptations, significantly for HEI testing and deliveries. Maintaining these adaptations might help restore the positive trend in timely HIV testing for HEI.

Abstract Objectives Tuberculosis (TB) presents a substantial danger to populations experiencing crises like earthquakes. This study aims to explore the effect of the Kermanshah earthquake on the trend of TB. Methods This cross-sectional study examined tuberculosis data from 2009 to 2020, using monthly diagnoses. Data was collected from the TB research office and registration system. The study employed interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess both the immediate and long-term impacts of the earthquake on TB cases. Results In Sarpol-e Zahab, TB cases initially surged after the earthquake, indicating an immediate effect, but then significantly declined compared to pre-earthquake levels, reflecting an effect over time (β0 = 1.39, β1=-0.004, β2 = 0.11 and β3=-0.01, P = 0.001 and Post-intervention linear trend= -0.015, P

Abstract Background The growth of parkrun between 2004 and 2019 has been heralded as a success story for public health as a result of its physical activity and wellbeing benefits for participants. However, parkrun was not immune from the COVID-19 pandemic - with events in mainland England cancelled from March 2020 to July 2021. This study explores the lasting impact of the pandemic on parkrun participation to February 2023, and its implications across the socioeconomic spectrum. Methods The study combines aggregated parkrun weekly finisher data from 32,470 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) in England from January 2015 to February 2023 with Office of National Statistics (ONS) data on population and deprivation. Interrupted time series analysis using segmented Poisson regression models was used to estimate the immediate change in parkrun participation and the change in the rate of growth following the pandemic. Models were fitted for each Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile separately to assess whether this effect differed by socioeconomic deprivation. Results Visualisation and interrupted time series analysis showed a significant and long-term decrease in parkrun participation following the reopening of parkrun events. This was consistent across all IMD quintiles, indicating that the inequalities in parkrun participation according to IMD observed prior to the pandemic remained after the pandemic. Between March 2020 and February 2023, almost 13 million fewer parkrun finishes are estimated to have occurred relative to what would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic. Conclusion The reduction in parkrun participation during the pandemic and following the reopening of events is likely to have negatively impacted wellbeing in would-be participants. Going forwards, policymakers must make the difficult trade-off between the long-term health and social implications of restricting outdoor physical activity events against the benefits associated with a reduction in infectious disease transmission.

Abstract Background Despite free immunisation services through the Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP), around 14% of Indian households seek immunisation in the private sector. We examined the potential impact of rotavirus vaccine (RVV) introduction in the Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP) on private-sector rotavirus vaccine utilisation. Methods We analysed nationally representative private-sector vaccine sales data. The intervention under consideration is RVV introduction in the UIP in selected Indian states. The outcome is the ‘monthly RVV sales volume’—a proxy for vaccine utilisation. We performed a Poisson regression interrupted time series analysis to detect the pre-intervention trend, post-intervention level change and trend change relative to the pre-intervention for monthly rotavirus vaccine utilisation. Results Poisson segmented regression analysis showed that immediately after RVV introduction in the UIP private-sector RVV sales showed a decline in Rajasthan by 37.4% (Incidence Risk Ratio (IRR): 0.626; 95% CI: 0.504–0.779), in Tamil Nadu by 26% (IRR: 0.740; 95% CI: 0.513–1.068), in Uttar Pradesh-East by 72.2% (IRR: 0.278; 95% CI: 0.178–0.436) and in Kerala by 3% (IRR: 0.970; 95% CI: 0.651–1.447). Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Kerala had sustained reduction in the postintervention trend relative to the preintervention trend by 20.1% (IRR: 0.799; 95% CI: 0.763–0.836), 6.4% (IRR: 0.936; 95% CI: 0.906–0.967) and 3.3% (IRR: 0.967; 95% CI: 0.926–0.960) per month, respectively. However, in Haryana and UP-west, in the first-month post-UIP introduction, the private-sector RVV sales increased by 101% and 3.8%, respectively which was followed by a sustained decrease of 14.2% (IRR: 0.858; 95% CI: 0.688–1.070) and 5.8% (IRR: 0.942; 95% CI: 0.926–0.960) per month, respectively. In terms of long-term impact, the private sector RVV sales post-UIP introduction decreased at a monthly rate of 4.4% (IRR: 0.956, 95% CI: 0.939–0.974) in Rajasthan but increased by 5.5% (IRR: 1.055; 95% CI: 1.040–1.070) in UP-east, 0.3% (IRR: 1.003, 95% CI: 0.976–1.031)) in Kerala and 0.2% (IRR: 1.002, 95% CI: 0.993–1.011) in Tamil Nadu whereas Haryana and UP-west had a reduction in RVV utilisation by 2.8% (IRR: 0.972; 95% CI: 0.955–0.990) and 1% (IRR: 0.990; 95% CI: 0.982–0.998), respectively. Conclusions The study provides evidence that access to RVV through UIP leads to a reduction in private-sector RVV utilisation. We recommend strengthening UIP to expand the basket of new vaccines.

Abstract Background Despite major primary health care (PHC) reforms in China with the 2009 launch of the National Essential Public Health Service Package, the country experiences many challenges in improving the management of non-communicable diseases in PHC facilities. “EMERALD” is a multifaceted implementation strategy to strengthen the management of hypertension and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in PHC facilities. The study aims to: (1) examine the effectiveness of EMERALD in improving hypertension and T2DM management; (2) evaluate the implementation of the interventions; and (3) use the study findings to model the long-term health economic impact of the interventions. Methods The EMERALD intervention components include: (1) empowerment for PHC providers through training and capacity building; (2) empowerment for patient communities through multi-media health education; and (3) empowerment for local health administrators through health data monitoring and strengthening governance of local PHC programs. An interrupted time series design will be used to determine the effectiveness of the interventions based on routinely collected health data extracted from local health information systems. The primary effectiveness outcome is the guideline-recommended treatment rates for people with hypertension and T2DM. Secondary effectiveness outcomes include hypertension and T2DM diagnosis and control rates, and enrolment and adherence rates to the recommended care processes in the National Essential Public Health Service Package. A mixed-methods process evaluation will be conducted to evaluate the implementation of the interventions, including the reach of the target population, adequacy of adoption, level of implementation fidelity, and maintenance. Qualitative interviews with policy makers, health administrators, PHC providers, and patients with hypertension and/or T2DM will be conducted to further identify factors influencing the implementation. In addition, health economic modelling will be performed to explore the long-term incremental costs and benefits of the interventions. Discussion This study is expected to generate important evidence on the effectiveness, implementation, and health economic impact of complex PHC interventions to strengthen the primary care sector’s contribution to addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases in China. Trial registration The study has been registered on Chinese Clinical Trial Registry at https://www.chictr.org.cn/ (Registration number ChiCTR2400082036, on March 19th 2024).

Abstract Background Little is known about the trends in morbidity and mortality at the population level that followed the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators for COPD. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the availability of new bronchodilators was associated with changes in the temporal trends in severe COPD exacerbations and mortality between 2007 and 2018 in the older population with COPD; and whether this association was homogeneous across sex and socioeconomic status classes. Methods We used an interrupted time-series and three segments multivariate autoregressive models to evaluate the adjusted changes in slopes (i.e., trend effect) in monthly severe exacerbation and mortality rates after 03/2013 and 02/2015 compared to the tiotropium period (04/2007 to 02/2013). Cohorts of individuals > 65 years with COPD were created from the nationally representative database of the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System in the province of Quebec, Canada. Whether these trends were similar for men and women and across different socioeconomic status classes was also assessed. Results There were 130,750 hospitalizations for severe exacerbation and 104,460 deaths, including 24,457 (23.4%) respiratory-related deaths, over the study period (928,934 person-years). Significant changes in trends were seen after 03/2013 for all-cause mortality (-1.14%/month;95%CI -1.90% to -0.38%), which further decreased after 02/2015 (-1.78%/month;95%CI -2.70% to -0.38%). Decreases in respiratory-related mortality (-2.45%/month;95%CI -4.38% to -0.47%) and severe exacerbation (-1,90%/month;95%CI -3.04% to -0.75%) rates were only observed after 02/2015. These observations tended to be more pronounced in women than in men and in higher socioeconomic status groups (less deprived) than in lower socioeconomic status groups (more deprived). Conclusions The arrival of newer bronchodilators was chronologically associated with reduced trends in severe exacerbation, all-cause and respiratory-related mortality rates among people with COPD > 65 years. Our findings document population benefits on key patient-relevant outcomes in the years following the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators and their combinations, which were likely multifactorial. Public health efforts should focus on closing the gap between lower and higher socioeconomic status groups.

Abstract Background The Swedish Primary Health Care (PHC) system has, like in other European countries, undergone a gradual transition towards marketization and privatization, most distinctly through a 2010 choice reform. The reform led to an overall but regionally heterogenous expansion of private PHC providers in Sweden, and with evidence also pointing to possible inequities in various aspects of PHC provision. Evidence on the reform’s impact on population-level primary health care performance and equity in performance remains scarce. The present study therefore aimed to examine whether the increase in private provision after the reform impacted on population-average rates of avoidable hospitalizations, as well as on corresponding socioeconomic inequities. Methods This register-based study used a multiple-group interrupted time-series design for the study period 2001–2017, with the study population (N = 51 million observations) randomly drawn from the total Swedish population aged 18–85 years. High, medium, and low implementing comparison groups were classified by tertiles of increase in private PHC providers after the reform. PHC performance was measured by avoidable hospitalizations, and socioeconomic position by education and income. Interrupted time series analysis based on individual-level data was used to estimate the reform impact on avoidable hospitalization risk, and on inequities through the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results All three comparisons groups displayed decreasing risk of avoidable hospitalizations but increasing socioeconomic inequities across the study period. Compared to regions with little change in provision after the reform, regions with large increase in private provision saw a steeper decrease in avoidable hospitalizations after the reform (relative risk (95%): 1.6% (1.1; 2.1)), but at the same time steeper increase in inequities (by education: 2.0% (0.1%; 4.0); by income: 2.2% (-0.1; 4.3)). Conclusions The study suggests that the increase in private health care centers, enabled by the choice reform, contributed to a small improvement when it comes to overall PHC performance, but simultaneously to increased socioeconomic inequities in PHC performance. This duality in the impact of the Swedish reform also reflects the arguments in the European health policy debate on patient choice PHC models, with hopes of improved performance but fears of increased inequities.

Abstract Background Postpartum depression (PPD) has received widespread attention. Shenzhen has been running a large-scale program for PPD since 2013. The program requires mothers to self-assess when applying information technology to PPD screening beginning in 2021. The purpose of this study was to conduct a longitudinal analysis of the impact of mHealth apps on the health-seeking behaviors of PPD patients. Methods Longitudinal data from districts in the Shenzhen Maternal and Child Health Management Information System (MCHMIS) for ten years was used in this study. Referral success rate (RSR, successful referrals to designated hospitals as a percentage of needed referrals) was used to assess health-seeking behavior. Trend χ2 tests were used to assess the overall trend of change after the implementation of mHealth in ten districts in Shenzhen. Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) was employed to assess the role of the mHealth app in changing patient health-seeking behaviors. Results For the results of the trend χ2 tests, the ten districts of Shenzhen showed an upward trend. For the ITSA results, different results were shown between districts. Nanshan district, Longhua district, and Longgang district all demonstrated an upward trend in the first-year application of the mHealth app. Nanshan district and Longgang district both exhibited an upward trend in terms of sustained effects. Conclusions There is a difference in the performance of the mHealth app across the ten districts. The results show that the three districts with better health resource allocation, Nanshan, Longgang, and Longhua districts, demonstrated more significant mHealth app improvements. The mHealth app’s functions, management systems, and health resource allocation may be potential factors in the results. This suggests that when leveraging mHealth applications, the first step is to focus on macro-level area resource allocation measures. Secondly, there should be effective process design and strict regulatory measures. Finally, there should also be appropriate means of publicity.

Abstract Background The emergence of COVID-19 precipitated containment policies (e.g., lockdowns, school closures, etc.). These policies disrupted healthcare, potentially eroding gains for Sustainable Development Goals including for neonatal mortality. Our analysis aimed to evaluate indirect effects of COVID-19 containment policies on neonatal admissions and mortality in 67 neonatal units across Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania between January 2019 and December 2021. Methods The Oxford Stringency Index was applied to quantify COVID-19 policy stringency over time for Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Stringency increased markedly between March and April 2020 for these four countries (although less so in Tanzania), therefore defining the point of interruption. We used March as the primary interruption month, with April for sensitivity analysis. Additional sensitivity analysis excluded data for March and April 2020, modelled the index as a continuous exposure, and examined models for each country. To evaluate changes in neonatal admissions and mortality based on this interruption period, a mixed effects segmented regression was applied. The unit of analysis was the neonatal unit (n = 67), with a total of 266,741 neonatal admissions (January 2019 to December 2021). Results Admission to neonatal units decreased by 15% overall from February to March 2020, with half of the 67 neonatal units showing a decline in admissions. Of the 34 neonatal units with a decline in admissions, 19 (28%) had a significant decrease of ≥ 20%. The month-to-month decrease in admissions was approximately 2% on average from March 2020 to December 2021. Despite the decline in admissions, we found no significant changes in overall inpatient neonatal mortality. The three sensitivity analyses provided consistent findings. Conclusion COVID-19 containment measures had an impact on neonatal admissions, but no significant change in overall inpatient neonatal mortality was detected. Additional qualitative research in these facilities has explored possible reasons. Strengthening healthcare systems to endure unexpected events, such as pandemics, is critical in continuing progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals, including reducing neonatal deaths to less than 12 per 1000 live births by 2030.

The main goal of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on road crashes in Thailand using time series and interrupted time series analysis. To achieve the goal, road crash data from the Department of Highway (DOH), which includes total crashes, single vehicle crashes, fatalities, fatal crashes, speeding crashes, and drunk driving crashes, was obtained to conduct Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series models and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) models. SARIMA models were applied to forecast the number of crashes in the absence of COVID-19 then compare them to the observed values to identify the difference. The impact of a policy change aimed at addressing the spread of COVID-19 was assessed using ITS models on a time series accident dataset. The goal was to ascertain if the intervention had a meaningful and causative impact on the outcome. The result showed that the first wave of COVID-19 caused a significant reduction in all road crash indicators instead of skyrocketing to a peak. After releasing the lockdown measures from the first wave of spreading, an increase was found in all of the crash indicators as well. However, the third wave of COVID-19, which lasted longest for nearly 7 months, also caused a decrease in the number of crashes, but not as much as the first wave of the outbreak. Moreover, the result from the interrupted time series also revealed that curfews and the closure of entertainment places are associated with a significant decrease in the number of speeding crashes and drunk driving crashes from 10 p.m. to 4 a.m., respectively. It can be observed that the COVID-19 countermeasures, such as curfews and bans on the sales of alcoholic beverages, led to a drop in the number of speeding and drunk driving crashes.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the care practices of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) throughout the world. However, the impact of the pandemic on TJA care practices has not yet been studied in China.MethodsThis retrospective multicenter cohort included patients aged 18 years or older who underwent TJA between January 2019 and December 2019 (prepandemic period) and January 2020 to December 2021 (pandemic period). Data were obtained from the medical records of 17 Chinese hospitals. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used to estimate differences in monthly TJA volume, hospitalization proportion of TJA, preoperative characteristics, postoperative complications, 30-day readmissions, length of stay (LOS), and costs in inpatients undergoing TJA between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Multivariate regression and propensity score matching (PSM) analyses were used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital complications, readmissions at 30 days, LOS, and costs at the patient level.ResultsA total of 752,477 inpatients undergoing TJA in the prepandemic period, 1,291,248 in the pandemic period, with an average 13.1% yearly decrease in the volume of TJA during the pandemic. No significant changes were observed in the proportion of hospitalizations for TJA. ITS analyses showed increases in the proportion of comorbidities (8.5%, 95% CI: 3.4–14.0%) and the number of comorbidities (15.6%, 95% CI: 7.7–24.1%) in TJA cases during the pandemic, without increasing LOS, costs, complications, and readmission rates. Multivariate and PSM analyses showed 6% and 26% reductions in costs and readmission rates during the pandemic, respectively.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic was associated with more severe preoperative conditions and decreased volume, costs, and readmission rates in patients undergoing TJA in China. These findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic did not have a dramatic impact on the TJA care pattern in China, which may have resulted from active and strict strategies in combating COVID-19 as well as a rapid response in hospital management.

Abstract Background Various measures taken against the COVID-19 pandemic are not only effective in reducing the spread of the disease, but also lead to some unexpected results. This article regarded these measures as an intervention and explored their impact on the incidence of tuberculosis in Shantou, China. Methods The incidence rate and the surveillance data of tuberculosis from January 1st, 2018 to December 31st, 2021 were provided by the Shantou Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Institute. Data were divided into pre-pandemic period (January 1st, 2018 - December 31st, 2019) and pandemic periods (January 1st, 2020 - December 31st, 2021). The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis incidence prior to and during the COVID-19 epidemic. Results The results showed that the incidence of tuberculosis cases in Shantou decreased significantly (p

Abstract Objective The purpose of this study is to explore the change in physicians’ hypertension treatment behavior before and after the reform of the capitation in county medical community. Methods Spanning from January 2014 to December 2019, monthly data of outpatient and inpatient were gathered before and after the implementation of the reform in April 2015. We employed interrupted time series analysis method to scrutinize the instantaneous level and slope changes in the indicators associated with physicians’ behavior. Results Several indicators related to physicians’ behavior demonstrated enhancement. After the reform, medical cost per visit for inpatient exhibited a reverse trajectory (-53.545, 95%CI: -78.620 to -28.470, p

BackgroundThe Qingcaosha Reservoir is facing issues of algal blooms and eutrophication, and the resulting increase in the level of chlorination disinfection by-products in the water has been a major concern. ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of "Algae Monitoring and Control Program in Qingcaosha Reservoir" (hereinafter referred to as the program) on the control of trihalomethanes (THMs) in conventional finished water. MethodsFrom 2011 to 2019, water samples were collected from the Lujiazui Water Plant once per season, one sample each time, and the concentrations of four THMs (trichloromethane, dichlorobromomethane, monochlorodibromomethane, and tribromomethane) were measured in the samples. Using 2014 when the program was implemented as a cut-off point, the entire study period was divided into two phases: pre-implementation (2011–2013) and post-implementation(2014–2019). Segmented linear regression with interrupted time series analysis was applied to assess the concentrations and trends of THMs in the finished water before and after the program launch. ResultsThe concentration of total THMs in finished water increased by 1.561 µg·L−1 (P=0.010) for each season of time extension before launching the program. The change in the concentration of total THMs in finished water was not statistically significant after the program launch, but the THMs concentration showed a decreasing trend as the slope was −0.626 (P=0.001). From 2017 until the end of 2019, the average concentration of THMs in finished water of Lujiazui Water Plant dropped to 10 μg·L−1 or less.ConclusionsThe algae and eutrophication control measures in Qingcaosha Reservoir have achieved good results, controlling THMs in finished water at a low level, and the trend of THMs has changed from a yearly increase pattern before the program to a yearly decrease pattern after the program.

Abstract Background Cesarean section (C-section) rates, deemed a critical health indicator, have experienced a historical increase. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted healthcare patterns including delays or lack of follow-up in treatment and an increased number of patients with acute problems in hospitals. This study aimed to explore whether the observed surge is a genuine consequence of pandemic-related factors. Methods This study employs an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design to analyze monthly C-section rates from March 2018 to January 2023 in Kurdistan province, Iran. Segmented regression modeling is utilized for robust data analysis. Results The C-section rate did not show a significant change immediately after the onset of COVID-19. However, the monthly trend increased significantly during the post-pandemic period (p

Abstract Prior research has predominantly focused on the overall effects of the tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent smoking behavior. However, there is a need to examine both the immediate and sustained associations of these two factors on subgroups of adolescents, employing an interrupted time-series model. We aimed to investigate the immediate and sustained association of tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent smoking prevalence. This study utilized data from the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-Based Survey to analyze the prevalence of current smoking among all participants (CSP) and the prevalence of daily smoking among current smokers (DSP) of Korean adolescents (n = 1,159,995; mean, age 14.99; male 51.5%) over 18 years from 2005 to 2022. The study examined 18-year trends in CSP and DSP among Korean adolescents, emphasizing the influences of the 2015 tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic, using β coefficients and their differences (βdiff) from an interrupted time-series ARIMA model. While CSP exhibited a decreasing trend, DSP exhibited an increasing trend. Tobacco tax increase was associated with both the short and long terms in smoking prevalence, however, the short-term association on prevalence (CSP, − 3.076 [95% CI, − 3.707 to − 2.445]; DSP, − 4.112 [95% CI, − 6.488 to − 1.735]) was stronger. The pandemic was associated with an immediate increase in DSP (9.345 [95% CI, 5.285–13.406]). These effects were strongest among adolescents from low economic status and those exposed to familial secondhand smoking. Supportive programs for adolescents in low-income families will help overcome the effects associated with the pandemic. As a tobacco tax increase was associated with a reduction in smoking prevalence, this could be one method to overcome the effects of the pandemic.

Yanghaotian Wu,1– 3 Xuemei Han,3 Jingfu Qiu1 1Department of Social Medicine and Health Service Management, School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China; 3Institute of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Jingfu Qiu, School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Yixueyuan Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People’s Republic of China, Email jfqiucqmu@163.comBackground: In 2016, an innovative medical pricing reform called zero-markup drug policy (ZMDP) was implemented in selected pilot cities in China, which focuses on curbing the unreasonable growth of medical expenses. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of ZMDP on medical expenditure of stroke in western China.Methods: The quantitative data of inpatients diagnosed with stroke was extracted from the medical insurance system in 7 tertiary public hospitals. An interrupted time series (ITS) was used to analyze the instantaneous level and long-term trend changes of hospitalization expenses per visit from January 2015 to November 2018.Results: A total of 22,407 stroke inpatients were extracted. The total hospitalization expense per visit had the highest proportion of 20,000 CNY and above (33.66%). After the ZMDP, the median total hospitalization expense and western medicine expense per visit decreased by 631.74 CNY and 966.35 CNY, respectively (P < 0.001). Before the policy, the total hospitalization expense, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) expense, examination expense, treatment expense, laboratory expense and surgical expense per visit showed upward trends (P< 0.05), while the anesthesia expense per visit showed a downward trend (P< 0.001). When the policy was implemented, the anesthesia expense per visit instantaneously increased by 91.70% (P< 0.001). After the policy, the total hospitalization expense, western medicine expense, TCM expense, treatment expense and surgical expense per visit changed from upward trends to downward trends (P< 0.05). The anesthesia expense per visit changed from a downward trend to an upward trend (P< 0.001), and the examination expense per visit maintained an upward trend (P=0.005).Conclusion: The economic burden of stroke inpatients decreased significantly with the implementation of the ZMDP, especially for the drug expenses. The medical service expenses increased significantly, reflecting the improvement in the value of medical staff’s technical labor. However, the unexpected increase in the examination expenses was likely to be associated with the unreasonable medical compensation mechanism.Keywords: zero-markup drug policy, stroke, interrupted time series, hospitalization expenses, drug expenses

Abstract Introduction Interrupted time series (ITS) design is a commonly used method for evaluating large-scale interventions in clinical practice or public health. However, improperly using this method can lead to biased results. Objective To investigate design and statistical analysis characteristics of drug utilization studies using ITS design, and give recommendations for improvements. Methods A literature search was conducted based on PubMed from January 2021 to December 2021. We included original articles that used ITS design to investigate drug utilization without restriction on study population or outcome types. A structured, pilot-tested questionnaire was developed to extract information regarding study characteristics and details about design and statistical analysis. Results We included 153 eligible studies. Among those, 28.1% (43/153) clearly explained the rationale for using the ITS design and 13.7% (21/153) clarified the rationale of using the specified ITS model structure. One hundred and forty-nine studies used aggregated data to do ITS analysis, and 20.8% (31/149) clarified the rationale for the number of time points. The consideration of autocorrelation, non-stationary and seasonality was often lacking among those studies, and only 14 studies mentioned all of three methodological issues. Missing data was mentioned in 31 studies. Only 39.22% (60/153) reported the regression models, while 15 studies gave the incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization. Time-varying participant characteristics were considered in 24 studies. In 97 studies containing hierarchical data, 23 studies clarified the heterogeneity among clusters and used statistical methods to address this issue. Conclusion The quality of design and statistical analyses in ITS studies for drug utilization remains unsatisfactory. Three emerging methodological issues warranted particular attention, including incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization, time-varying participant characteristics and hierarchical data analysis. We offered specific recommendations about the design, analysis and reporting of the ITS study.

Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic had considerable implications for cancer related care. This study aimed to examine its impact on the dispensing of systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) in Ireland. Study design: A repeated cross-sectional design was used which involved a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Methods: This nationally representative study utilised monthly pharmacy claims (i.e. dispensing) data from community and hospital schemes. Dispensed items among individuals prescribed any SACT from January 2019 to April 2021 were included. Results: During the study period, 641,273 SACT items were dispensed, including 57,199 chemotherapeutic agents (8.9 %), 15,970 immunotherapeutic agents (2.5 %), 87,813 targeted therapies (13.7 %), and 480,291 (74.9 %) endocrine therapies. There were on average 3.3 and 4.1 fewer immunotherapy and targeted therapy agents, respectively, dispensed per 100,000 population per month post-March 2020 (vs. expected), compared to the level prior to March 2020. For endocrine therapy, there was a significant slowing of the trend post-March 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic period (slope change = −1.72, 95 % CI -2.9 to −0.5; p

Summary: Background: An increasing number of countries have or are considering legalizing cannabis. One concern is that legalization of cannabis will result in increased cannabis use and in turn a higher prevalence of anxiety disorders. We examined changes in emergency department (ED) visits for anxiety disorders with cannabis involvement in Ontario, over a period that involved medical and non-medical cannabis legalization. Methods: This repeated cross-sectional population-based study identified all ED visits for anxiety disorders from residents of Ontario, Canada aged 10–105 between 2008 and 2022 (n = 15.7 million individuals). We used interrupted time series analyses to examine immediate and gradual changes in cannabis-involvement and alcohol-involvement (control condition) over four policy periods: medical cannabis legalization (January 2008–November 2015), expanded medical access (December 2015–September 2018), non-medical cannabis legalization with restrictions (October 2018–February 2020), and commercialization which overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020–December 2022). Poisson models were used to generate incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Findings: Over the 14-year study, there were 438,700 individuals with one or more ED visits for anxiety disorders of which 3880 (0.89%) individuals had cannabis involvement and 6329 (1.45%) individuals had alcohol involvement. During the commercialization/COVID-19 period monthly rates of anxiety disorders with cannabis-involvement were 156% higher (0.11 vs 0.29 per 100,000 individuals) relative to the pre-legalization period, compared to a 27% increase for alcohol-involvement (0.27 vs 0.35 per 1100,000 individuals). Rates of anxiety ED visits with cannabis involvement per 100,000 individuals increased gradually over the study period with no immediate or gradual changes after expanded medical access, legalization with restrictions or commercialization/COVID-19. However, during the commercialization/COVID-19 period there were large declines in total anxiety disorder ED visits and anxiety disorder ED visits with alcohol-involvement. Consequently, during this period there was an immediate 31.4% relative increase in the proportion of anxiety visits with cannabis-involvement (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.31; 95% CI 1.05–1.65). Interpretation: We found large relative increases in anxiety disorder ED visits with cannabis involvement over a 14-year period involving medical and non-medical cannabis legalization. These findings may reflect increasing anxiety disorder problems from cannabis use, increasing self-medication of anxiety disorders with cannabis use, or both. The proportion of anxiety ED visits with cannabis involvement increased during the final period of the study but could have been the results of the market commercialization, COVID-19 or both and ongoing monitoring is indicated. Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research (grant #452360).

ObjectivesThe emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic may disrupt hospital management activities of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study aimed to determine the changing AMR trend over the period in China when stringent COVID-19 response measures were implemented.MethodsThis retrospective study was conducted in a designated hospital for COVID-19 patients in Guangzhou, China from April 2018 to September 2021. The prevalence of 13 antimicrobial-resistant bacteria was compared before and after the COVID-19 responses through Chi-square tests. Interrupted time series (ITS) models on the weekly prevalence of AMR were established to determine the changing trend. Controlled ITS models were performed to compare the differences between subgroups.ResultsA total of 10,134 isolates over 1,265 days were collected. And antimicrobial-resistant strains presented in 38.6% of the testing isolates. The weekly AMR prevalence decreased by 0.29 percentage point (95% CI [0.05–0.80]) after antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) policy, despite an increase in the prevalence of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (from 0/43 to 15/43, p

Background: Elective surgeries were suspended during the national lockdown in March 2020 to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. We sought to evaluate the impact of the lockdown on cataract surgeries and suggest lessons for future outbreaks. Study design: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis to examine rates of cataract surgery before and during the lockdown. Methods: We used national cataract surgical data between 2015 and 2021 from the Malaysian Cataract Surgery Registry. Segmented regression with a seasonally adjusted Poisson model was used for the analysis. Stratified analyses were performed to establish whether the effect of the lockdown on cataract surgeries varied by hospital designation, type of cataract service, sex, and age groups. Results: Cataract surgeries began falling in March 2020 at the onset of the lockdown, reached a trough in April 2020, and subsequently increased but never recovered to pre-lockdown levels. Cataract surgical rates in December 2021 were still 43 % below the expected surgical volume, equivalent to 2513 lost cataract surgeries. There was no evidence of a differential effect of the lockdown between COVID-19 designated and non-COVID-19 designated hospitals. The relative decrease in cataract surgical rates appears to have been greatest in outreach services and in people 40 years and older. Conclusions: The lockdown caused an immediate reduction in cataract surgical rates to nearly half of its baseline rate. Despite its gradual recovery, further delays remain to be expected should there be no redistribution or increase in resources to support backlogs and incoming new cases.

Abstract Background Despite the progress made in this decade towards malaria elimination, it remains a significant public health concern in India and many other countries in South Asia and Asia Pacific region. Understanding the historical trends of malaria incidence in relation to various commodity and policy interventions and identifying the factors associated with its occurrence can inform future intervention strategies for malaria elimination goals. Methods This study analysed historical malaria cases in India from 1990 to 2022 to assess the annual trends and the impact of key anti-malarial interventions on malaria incidence. Factors associated with malaria incidence were identified using univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses. Generalized linear, smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) and Holt’s models were used to forecast malaria cases from 2023 to 2030. Results The reported annual malaria cases in India during 1990–2000 were 2.38 million, which dropped to 0.73 million cases annually during 2011–2022. The overall reduction from 1990 (2,018,783) to 2022 (176,522) was 91%. The key interventions of the Enhanced Malaria Control Project (EMCP), Intensified Malaria Control Project (IMCP), use of bivalent rapid diagnostic tests (RDT-Pf/Pv), artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), and involvement of the Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) as front-line workers were found to result in the decline of malaria significantly. The ARIMA and Holt’s models projected a continued decline in cases with the potential for reaching zero indigenous cases by 2027–2028. Important factors influencing malaria incidence included tribal population density, literacy rate, health infrastructure, and forested and hard-to-reach areas. Conclusions Studies aimed at assessing the impact of major commodity and policy interventions on the incidence of disease and studies of disease forecasting will inform programmes and policymakers of steps needed during the last mile phase to achieve malaria elimination. It is proposed that these time series and disease forecasting studies should be performed periodically using granular (monthly) and meteorological data to validate predictions of prior studies and suggest any changes needed for elimination efforts at national and sub-national levels.

Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a robust design for evaluating public health and policy interventions or exposures when randomisation may be infeasible. Several statistical methods are available for the analysis and meta-analysis of ITS studies. We sought to empirically compare available methods when applied to real-world ITS data. Methods We sourced ITS data from published meta-analyses to create an online data repository. Each dataset was re-analysed using two ITS estimation methods. The level- and slope-change effect estimates (and standard errors) were calculated and combined using fixed-effect and four random-effects meta-analysis methods. We examined differences in meta-analytic level- and slope-change estimates, their 95% confidence intervals, p-values, and estimates of heterogeneity across the statistical methods. Results Of 40 eligible meta-analyses, data from 17 meta-analyses including 282 ITS studies were obtained (predominantly investigating the effects of public health interruptions (88%)) and analysed. We found that on average, the meta-analytic effect estimates, their standard errors and between-study variances were not sensitive to meta-analysis method choice, irrespective of the ITS analysis method. However, across ITS analysis methods, for any given meta-analysis, there could be small to moderate differences in meta-analytic effect estimates, and important differences in the meta-analytic standard errors. Furthermore, the confidence interval widths and p-values for the meta-analytic effect estimates varied depending on the choice of confidence interval method and ITS analysis method. Conclusions Our empirical study showed that meta-analysis effect estimates, their standard errors, confidence interval widths and p-values can be affected by statistical method choice. These differences may importantly impact interpretations and conclusions of a meta-analysis and suggest that the statistical methods are not interchangeable in practice.

Abstract Background The high costs of innovative anticancer drugs hinder a number of cancer patients’ access to these drugs in China. To address this problem, in 2018, the medical insurance access negotiation (MIAN) policy was implemented, when the prices of 17 innovative anticancer drugs were successfully negotiated and they were therefore included in the reimbursement list. This study aimed to explore the impact of the MIAN policy on the utilization of innovative anticancer drugs. Methods With monthly data on drug expenditures and defined daily doses (DDDs) of each innovative anticancer drug from January 2017 to December 2019, interrupted time series analysis was employed to estimate both the instant (change in the level of outcome) and long-term (change in trends of outcomes) impacts of the MIAN policy on drug utilization in terms of drug expenditures and DDDs. Our sample consists of 12 innovative anticancer drugs. Results From January 2017 to December 2019, the monthly drug expenditures and DDDs of 12 innovative anticancer drugs increased by about 573% (from US$8,931,809.30 to US$51,138,331.09) and 1400% (from 47,785 to 668,754), respectively. Overall, the implementation of the MIAN policy led to instant substantial increases of US$8,734,414 in drug expenditures and 158,192.5 in DDDs. Moreover, a sharper upward trend over time was reported, with increases of US$2,889,078 and 38,715.3 in the monthly growth rates of drug expenditures and DDDs, respectively. Regarding individual innovative anticancer drugs, the most prominent instant change and trend change in drug utilization were found for osimertinib, crizotinib, and ibrutinib. In contrast, the utilization of pegaspargase was barely affected by the MIAN policy. Conclusions The MIAN policy has effectively promoted the utilization of innovative anticancer drugs. To ensure the continuity of the effects and eliminate differentiation, supplementary measures should be carried out, such as careful selection of drugs for medical insurance negotiations, a health technology assessment system and a multichannel financing mechanism.

Objectives: We investigated the impact of school reopening on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Italy, Germany, and Portugal in autumn 2022 when the Omicron variant was prevalent. Methods: A prospective international study was conducted using the case reproduction number (Rc) calculated with the time parametrization of Omicron. For Germany and Italy, staggered difference-in-differences analysis was employed to explore the causal relationship between school reopening and Rc changes, accounting for varying reopening dates. In Portugal, interrupted time series analysis was used due to simultaneous school reopenings. Multivariable models were adopted to adjust for confounders. Results: In Italy and Germany, post-reopening Rc estimates were significantly lower compared to those from regions/states that had not yet reopened at the same time points, both in the student population (overall average treatment effect for the treated subpopulation [O-ATT]: -0.80 [95% CI: -0.94;-0.66] for Italy; O-ATT-0.30 [95% CI: -0.36;-0.23] for Germany) and the adult population (O-ATT: -0.04 [95% CI: -0.07;-0.01] for Italy; O-ATT: -0.07 [95% CI: -0.11;-0.03] for Germany). In Portugal, there was a significant decreasing trend in Rc following school reopenings compared to the pre-reopening period (sustained effect: -0.03 [95% CI: -0.04; -0.03] in students; -0.02 [95% CI: -0.03; -0.02] in adults). Conclusions: We found no evidence of a causal relationship between school reopenings in autumn 2022 and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Background: Public health interventions may affect a variety of health outcomes. This study developed an Interrupted Time Series model to test its efficacy in evaluating public health interventions. The developed model can be used to forecast future trends in interventions to curb pneumonia. Methods: This study utilized interrupted time-series analysis (ITS) as the study design. The study population comprised children between two months and five years admitted to Kilifi County Hospital from May 2007 to March 2020. The population included a cohort that received the PCV10 vaccine that was introduced in January 2011 for three months. Results: The study findings indicated a downward trajectory with regard to the number of pneumonia cases reported. Further, the segmented regression results show that the intercept (β0) = 823.16, coefficient estimate of time (β1) = -2.72, coefficient estimate of PCV10 intervention (β2) = 59.63, and the coefficient estimate of the time after PCV10 intervention (β3) = -6.03. In addition, the results showed that during the post-intervention period, the response variable had an average value of approximately. 422.02. The 95% interval of this counterfactual prediction is [669.64, 821.18]. Therefore, the adverse effects observed during the intervention period are statistically significant. Conclusion: The overall findings of the segmented regression model imply that public health initiatives in Kilifi County have been successful in enhancing population health outcomes. The study recommends using PCV10 vaccination as an intervention for longevity of good health and reducing the number of pneumonia cases among children under five in Kenya.

Background A prescribing monitoring policy (PMP) was implemented in November 2015 in Anhui province, China, the first province to pilot this policy to manage the use and costs of select drugs based on their large prescription volumes and/or costs in hospitals. This study evaluated the impact of PMP on the use and expenditures of different drugs in three tertiaryhospitals in Anhui.Methods We obtained monthly drug use and expenditures data from three tertiary hospitals in Anhui (November 2014 through September 2017). An interrupted time series (ITS) design was used to estimate changes in defined daily doses (DDDs per month) and drug expenditures (dollars per month) of policy-targeted and non-targeted drugs after PMP implementation. Drugs were grouped based on whether they were recommended (recommended drugs) by any clinical guidelines or not (non-recommended drugs), or if they were potentially over-used (proton pump inhibitors, PPIs).Results After PMP, DDDs and costs of the targeted PPIs (omeprazole) declined while use of non-targeted PPIs increased correspondingly with overall sustained declines in total PPIs. The policy impact on recommended drugs varied based on whether the targeted drugs have appropriate alternatives. The DDDs and costs of recommended drugs that have readily accessible appropriate alternatives (atorvastatin) declined, which offset increases in its alternative non-target drugs (rosuvastatin), while there was no significant change in those recommended drugs that did not have appropriate alternative drugs (clopidogrel and ticagrelor). Finally, the DDDs and costs of non-recommended drugs decreased significantly.Conclusion PMP policy impact was not the same across different drug groups. PMP did help contain the use and costs of potentially over-used drugs and non-recommended drugs. PMP did not seem to reduce the use of first-line therapeutic drugs recommended by clinical treatment guidelines, especially those lacking alternatives; such drugs are unlikely appropriate candidates for PMP.

Yan Zhang,1 Xinqi Wang,2 Nianqiang Liu,2 Senlu Wang,2 Xiaomin Wang,1 Mingqin Cao1 1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830011, People’s Republic of China; 2The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830002, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Mingqin Cao, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, No. 393 Xinyi Road, Urumqi, 830011, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-13319912419, Email 573596229@qq.comObjective: To quantitatively evaluate the intervention effect of the “Xinjiang model” policy on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Xinjiang, and to compare the difference of policy effect between areas with different tuberculosis burdens.Methods: We retrospectively collected data on the registered incidence of PTB patients in 14 prefectures of Xinjiang from January 2012 to December 2021 and used Joinpoint model to describe the time trend of registered incidence, single-group interrupted time series (ITS) model to analyze the dynamics of registered incidence before and after the policy intervention, and controlled interrupted time series (CITS) model to compare the differences in the effects of the policy in different tuberculosis burdened areas.Results: The areas with high registered incidence of PTB in Xinjiang were mainly located in the four prefectures of southern Xinjiang. The time trend of registered incidence of PTB in Xinjiang from 2012 to 2021 showed a general downward trend (AAPC=− 3.4%), an upward trend from 2012 to 2018 (APC=12.1%), and a rapid downward trend from 2018 to 2021 (APC=− 28.3%). Single-group ITS results showed that registered incidence in Xinjiang increased by 13.806/100,000 one month after policy was implemented (P< 0.001); the long-term effect of policy was a downward trend in registered incidence (β3< 0, P< 0.001), decreasing by 0.690/100,000 per month. In high-, medium-, and low-burden areas of PTB, the long-term effect of policy was a monthly decrease in registered incidence of 1.460/100,000, 0.227/100,000, and 0.064/100,000, respectively. The long-term effects of policy interventions in high- and medium-burden areas showed a faster decline in registered incidence than in low-burden areas (β7 was − 1.548 and − 0.194, respectively, P< 0.001).Conclusion: A dynamic causal relationship exists between “Xinjiang model” policy and registered incidence, and its continued implementation is effective in controlling the spread of tuberculosis.Keywords: pulmonary tuberculosis, interrupted time series, policy evaluation, active case finding, treatment

I present evidence that the release of Netflix’s 13 Reasons Why—a fictional series about the aftermath of a teenage girl's suicide—caused a temporary spike in emergency room (ER) visits for self-harm among teenage girls in the United States. I conduct an interrupted time series analysis using monthly counts of ER visits obtained from a large, nationally representative survey. I estimate that the show caused an increase of 1,297 self-harm visits (95 percent CI: 634 to 1,965) the month it was released, a 14 percent (6.5 percent, 23 percent) spike relative to the predicted counterfactual. The effect persisted for two months, and ER visits for intentional cutting—the method of suicide portrayed in the series—were unusually high following the show’s release. The findings indicate that fictional portrayals of suicide can influence real-life self-harm behavior, providing support for contagion-based explanations of suicide. Methodologically, the study showcases how to make credible causal claims when effect estimates are likely biased.

ABSTRACTTools to advance antimicrobial stewardship in the primary health care setting, where most antimicrobials are prescribed, are urgently needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate OPEN Stewarship (Online Platform for Expanding aNtibiotic Stewardship), an automated feedback intervention, among a cohort of primary care physicians. We performed a controlled, interrupted time-series study of 32 intervention and 725 control participants, consisting of primary care physicians from Ontario, Canada and Southern Israel, from October 2020 to December 2021. Intervention participants received three personalized feedback reports targeting several aspects of antibiotic prescribing. Study outcomes (overall prescribing rate, prescribing rate for viral respiratory conditions, prescribing rate for acute sinusitis, and mean duration of therapy) were evaluated using multilevel regression models. We observed a decrease in the mean duration of antibiotic therapy (IRR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90, 0.99) in intervention participants during the intervention period. We did not observe a significant decline in overall antibiotic prescribing (OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.07), prescribing for viral respiratory conditions (OR = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.73, 1.03), or prescribing for acute sinusitis (OR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.67, 1.07). In this antimicrobial stewardship intervention among primary care physicians, we observed shorter durations of therapy per antibiotic prescription during the intervention period. The COVID-19 pandemic may have hampered recruitment; a dramatic reduction in antibiotic prescribing rates in the months before our intervention may have made physicians less amenable to further reductions in prescribing, limiting the generalizability of the estimates obtained.IMPORTANCEAntibiotic overprescribing contributes to antibiotic resistance, a major threat to our ability to treat infections. We developed the OPEN Stewardship (Online Platform for Expanding aNtibiotic Stewardship) platform to provide automated feedback on antibiotic prescribing in primary care, where most antibiotics for human use are prescribed but where the resources to improve antibiotic prescribing are limited. We evaluated the platform among a cohort of primary care physicians from Ontario, Canada and Southern Israel from October 2020 to December 2021. The results showed that physicians who received personalized feedback reports prescribed shorter courses of antibiotics compared to controls, although they did not write fewer antibiotic prescriptions. While the COVID-19 pandemic presented logistical and analytical challenges, our study suggests that our intervention meaningfully improved an important aspect of antibiotic prescribing. The OPEN Stewardship platform stands as an automated, scalable intervention for improving antibiotic prescribing in primary care, where needs are diverse and technical capacity is limited.

Abstract The interrupted time series (ITS) design is widely used to examine the effects of large-scale public health interventions and has the highest level of evidence validity. However, there is a notable gap regarding methods that account for lag effects of interventions. To address this, we introduced activation functions (ReLU and Sigmoid) to into the classic segmented regression (CSR) of the ITS design during the lag period. This led to the proposal of proposed an optimized segmented regression (OSR), namely, OSR-ReLU and OSR-Sig. To compare the performance of the models, we simulated data under multiple scenarios, including positive or negative impacts of interventions, linear or nonlinear lag patterns, different lag lengths, and different fluctuation degrees of the outcome time series. Based on the simulated data, we examined the bias, mean relative error (MRE), mean square error (MSE), mean width of the 95% confidence interval (CI), and coverage rate of the 95% CI for the long-term impact estimates of interventions among different models. OSR-ReLU and OSR-Sig yielded approximately unbiased estimates of the long-term impacts across all scenarios, whereas CSR did not. In terms of accuracy, OSR-ReLU and OSR-Sig outperformed CSR, exhibiting lower values in MRE and MSE. With increasing lag length, the optimized models provided robust estimates of long-term impacts. Regarding precision, OSR-ReLU and OSR-Sig surpassed CSR, demonstrating narrower mean widths of 95% CI and higher coverage rates. Our optimized models are powerful tools, as they can model the lag effects of interventions and provide more accurate and precise estimates of the long-term impact of interventions. The introduction of an activation function provides new ideas for improving of the CSR model.

Gen Z or younger news audiences are believed to contribute to declining news consumption as a result of decreased news interest and reduced trust, particularly in political news. It can have adverse consequences for democratic processes. This study offers a more nuanced perspective by qualifying the role of context, and generational differences and similarities in online political news consumption patterns before and after the 2020 US presidential election, which witnessed a series of unprecedented events in the country’s history.

Abstract Background In September 2019, the “4 + 7” centralized procurement pilot program was expanded nationwide aiming at reducing drug prices by means of volume-based procurement and using accredited generic drugs for branded drug substitutes. Given the current uncertain effect of the policy outside pilot areas, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact of the National Volume-based Procurement policy on the use of policy-related drugs after expansion. Method A single-group interrupted time series was applied using drug purchase data, covering 25 months from December 2018 to December 2020. Drugs related to the centralized procurement policy were selected as samples, including 25 first-batch policy-related drugs and 56 alternative drugs. Centralized procured drugs can be divided into bid-winning and non-winning products, where non-winning products were sorted into generic and branded drugs, and alternative products were classified according to different degrees of substitution. Purchase volume, expenditures, and daily costs were measured. Results After the implementation of the policy, a significant increase was associated with the volume of bid-winning drugs (p

Heather D Anderson,1 Vanessa Paul Patterson,1 Garth Wright,1 Julia E Rawlings,1 Gina D Moore,1 Jim Leonard,2 Robert L Page II1 1Department of Clinical Pharmacy, University of Colorado Skaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA; 2Colorado Department of Health Care Policy and Financing, Denver, CO, USACorrespondence: Robert L Page II, Clinical Pharmacy, University of Colorado Skaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, 12850 E. Montview Blvd, Mail Stop C238, Aurora, CO, 80045, USA, Tel +1 303-724-2616, Fax +1 303-724-2627, Email robert.page@cuanschutz.eduObjective: COVID-19, coinciding with the opioid epidemic in the United States, has had significant impacts on health-care utilization. While mixed, early analyses signaled a potential resurgence in opioid use following the pandemic. The primary study objective was to assess the association of the COVID-19 pandemic with opioid utilization among Health First Colorado (Colorado’s Medicaid Program) members and a non-Medicaid managed care cohort who did not have a diagnosis of cancer or sickle cell disease.Patients and Methods: Using an interrupted time series and segmented regression analysis, this population-level study assessed the association of the COVID-19 pandemic on prescribed utilization of long- and short-acting opioid analgesics among Health First Colorado members and a random sample of non-Medicaid managed care members. Pharmacy claims data for both cohorts were assessed between October 1, 2018, and September 30, 2021, with April 2020 identified as the interruption of interest. We evaluated the following monthly opioid use measures separately for short-acting and long-acting opioids: number of members filling an opioid, total fills, and total days supplied.Results: Short- and long-acting opioid utilization was significantly decreasing among Health First Colorado members in the 18 months prior to the start of COVID-19. After the onset of the pandemic, utilization stabilized and slopes were not significantly different from zero. Among the non-Medicaid managed care cohort, short- and long-acting opioid utilization significantly decreased in the 18 months leading up to the onset of the pandemic. After the onset of the pandemic, utilization of long-acting opioids stabilized, while utilization of short-acting opioids significantly increased.Conclusion: While we observed an increase in opioid utilization measures post-pandemic in the non-Medicaid managed care cohort, a similar increase was not observed in Health First Colorado members suggesting that thoughtful opioid policies put in place pre-pandemic may have been effective at controlling potential inappropriate opioid utilization.Keywords: interrupted time series, segmented regression, pain management, health care utilization, Medicaid, managed care, opioids

Abstract Background In 2021, Brazil was responsible for more than 25% of malaria cases in the Americas. Although the country has shown a reduction of cases in the last decades, in 2021 it reported over 139,000 malaria cases. One major malaria control strategy implemented in Brazil is the “Malaria Supporters Project”, which has been active since 2012 and is directed to municipalities responsible for most Brazil’s cases. The objective of this study is to analyse the intervention effect on the selected municipalities. Methods An ecological time-series analysis was conducted to assess the “Malaria Supporters Project” effect. The study used data on Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) spanning the period from 2003 to 2020 across 48 intervention municipalities and 88 control municipalities. To evaluate the intervention effect a Prais–Winsten segmented regression model was fitted to the difference in malaria Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) between control and intervention areas. Results The intervention group registered 1,104,430 cases between 2012 and 2020, a 50.6% reduction compared to total cases between 2003 and 2011. In 2020 there were 95,621 cases, 50.4% fewer than in 2011. The number of high-risk municipalities (API > 50 cases/1000) reduced from 31 to 2011 to 17 in 2020. The segmented regression showed a significant 42.0 cases/1000 residents annual decrease in API compared to control group. Conclusions The intervention is not a silver bullet to control malaria, but it has reduced API in locations with high malaria endemicity. Furthermore, the model has the potential to be replicated in other countries with similar epidemiological scenarios.

A strategic priority of the World Health Organization’s Immunization Agenda 2030 is to increase vaccination coverage and equity through reaching “zero-dose” children. Through an ecological study, we sought to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coverage of the pentavalent and the measles/rubella vaccines in Kenya, without implying causality. The monthly number of doses from January 2017 to August 2022 were obtained from the Kenya Health Information System for the pentavalent and the measles/rubella vaccines. Immediate (step) and long-term (ramp) changes following interruptions occurring during the period from March 2020 to December 2020 were assessed through an interrupted time series analysis using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, accounting for seasonality. In December 2020, there was an immediate decrease of 8337, 12,212, and 20,848 in the number of doses for the first, second, and third dose of the pentavalent vaccine, respectively (statistically significant for the third dose only). This corresponded to a percentage relative difference of −21.6, −20.1, and −24.5, respectively, for three doses of pentavalent vaccines, while for measles/rubella vaccine it was −27.3 and −33.6, respectively, for the first and second dose. COVID-19 resulted in interruptions affecting routine immunization, but recovery occurred within four months.

Introduction The Shenzhen government is widely considered to be most efficiently implementing smoke-free legislation in China. We evaluated and compared the impact of Shenzhen’s two-phase smoke-free regulation on the incidence rates for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Methods An interrupted time series design was used to capture immediate and annual incidence changes from 2007 to 2016 for both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke due to two-phase smoke-free regulation in Shenzhen, China, by using a generalized additive model. The first phase, implemented on 9 March 2010, required five main public places to be smoke-free. In the second phase, the comprehensive law was expanded to the whole city on 1 March 2014. Results The regulation implementation during phase I was associated with a strong immediate decline in the incidence rate of ischemic stroke (-14.2%, 95% CI: -19.6 – -8.4) and hemorrhagic stroke (-10.1%, 95% CI: -18.2 – -1.2), but without showing the annual changes (p>0.05). Following the implementation of the comprehensive law, the gradual annual effect showed a significant change in ischemic stroke, with a 6.3% (95% CI: 8.9 – -3.6) reduction. Neither the immediate nor gradual decreases in hemorrhagic stroke incidences associated with the comprehensive regulation were statistically significant during phase II (p>0.05). Subgroup analyses indicate that a much larger health effect of the regulation during phase I was greater among those aged ≥65 years than among those aged 35–64 years. Conclusions Shenzhen’s two-phase smoke-free regulation was well implemented. Even though the regulation did not extend to the whole city, the immediate health benefits on the incidence rates of ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke could be seen. However, the health benefits brought by the implementation of comprehensive smoke-free legislation were attenuated by previous smoke-free regulations in five main public places, which were more evident in hemorrhagic stroke.

Abstract Background Access to healthcare services is important, especially for patients with chronic diseases. We evaluated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on outpatient visits and medication for patients with hypertension and diabetes in South Korea. Methods Nationwide claims data were extracted for patients with hypertension and diabetes from January 2019 to July 2020. We used an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to evaluate the pandemic’s impact on outpatient care using the number of outpatient visits and days of medication supplied per visit. We identified the change in the continuity of care in medication, a consequence of the change in outpatient care, using the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR). Results The number of outpatient visits for diabetes significantly declined in February 2020, when community transmission began. However, when high-intensity social distancing was relaxed in April 2020, outpatient visits for hypertension and diabetes rebounded significantly. Moreover, when the outpatient visits declined, the number of days of medication supplied per visit increased. Consequently, the average MPRs significantly increased compared to 2019, increasing the ratio of patients with appropriate medication supply (MPR ≥ 0.8). Conclusions Outpatient visits decreased immediately when COVID-19 spread to local communities. However, the number of days of medication supplied per visit increased to compensate for the longer intervals between visits. Rather, the change in the continuity of care in medication improved; thus, the temporary decrease in outpatient visits might have had a limited negative impact on health outcomes.

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Minhang District， Shanghai from 2013 to 2022， and to evaluate the impact of adjusting the varicella vaccination program to a two-dose regimen and its inclusion in the Shanghai immunization program on the incidence of varicella.MethodsData on reported varicella cases from 2013 to 2022 in Minhang District were collected. Interrupted time series analysis and segmented regression models were used to analyze the changes in varicella incidence before and after the adjustment of varicella immunization strategies.ResultsFrom 2013 to 2022， the average annual incidence of varicella was 76.58/100 000， with the highest incidence in 2017 （119.21/100 000） and the lowest in 2022 （27.02/100 000）. The varicella incidence exhibited seasonal patterns with peaks occurring from March to June and October to January of the following year. Prior to the adjustment of varicella immunization strategies （2013‒2017）， the varicella incidence showed an upward trend （z=2.20， P=0.03）， while after the adjustment （2018‒2022）， a adownward trend was observed （2018‒2022） （z=-2.25， P=0.02）. Interrupted time series analysis showed that following the adjustment of varicella immunization strategies， an immediate change of -33.91/100 000 （t=-4.35， P

Background: The pandemic of COVID-19 affect all healthcare systems globally, and its effect on different hospital performance indicators has been debated. The study aimed to compare the impacts of COVID-19 on hospital performance indicators using pre-and post-pandemic data from training hospitals.Methods: We conducted an observational cohort study of hospital performance indicators from two healthcare facilities affiliated with Qazvin University of Medical Sciences in the north-west of Iran. The R statistical software was used to analyze monthly data on three basic performance indicators, including bed turnover, average length of stay (LOS), and bed occupancy rate before and during the outbreak of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19).Results: The pandemic had a remarkable effect on the level of bed turnover, the average length of stay (LOS), and the bed occupancy rate after one month from the COVID-19 outbreak (P

Abstract Background The Belgian government has taken several measures to increase the uptake of biosimilars in past years. However, no formal evaluation of the impact of these measures has been made yet. This study aimed to investigate the impact of the implemented measures on biosimilar uptake. Methods An interrupted time series analysis was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the Box-Jenkins method. All data were expressed as defined daily doses (DDD) per month/quarter and obtained from the Belgian National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance (NIHDI). Three molecules were included in the analysis: etanercept (ambulatory), filgrastim (hospital), and epoetin (hospital). A significance level of 5% was used for all analyses. Results In the ambulatory care, the effect of a financial prescriber incentive of 2019 was investigated. After this intervention, 44.504 (95% CI −61.61 to −14.812; P

Abstract Aims To evaluate the extent to which publication of high-quality randomised controlled trials(RCTs) in 2018 was associated with a change in volume or trend of subacromial decompression(SAD) surgery in patients with subacromial pain syndrome(SAPS) treated in hospitals across various countries. Methods Routinely collected administrative data of the Global Health Data@work collaborative were used to identify SAPS patients who underwent SAD surgery in six hospitals from five countries (Australia, Belgium, Netherlands, United Kingdom, United States) between 01/2016 and 02/2020. Following a controlled interrupted time series design, segmented Poisson regression was used to compare trends in monthly SAD surgeries before(01/2016-01/2018) and after(02/2018-02/2020) publication of the RCTs. The control group consisted of musculoskeletal patients undergoing other procedures. Results A total of 3.046 SAD surgeries were performed among SAPS patients treated in five hospitals; one hospital did not perform any SAD surgeries. Overall, publication of trial results was associated with a significant reduction in the trend to use SAD surgery of 2% per month (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.984[0.971–0.998]; P = 0.021), but with large variation between hospitals. No changes in the control group were observed. However, publication of trial results was also associated with a 2% monthly increased trend (IRR 1.019[1.004–1.034]; P = 0.014) towards other procedures performed in SAPS patients. Conclusion Publication of RCT results was associated with a significantly decreased trend in SAD surgery for SAPS patients, although large variation between participating hospitals existed and a possible shift in coding practices cannot be ruled out. This highlights the complexities of implementing recommendations to change routine clinical practice even if based on high-quality evidence.

Objectives: The study aimed to estimate the effects of National Volume-based Drug Procurement (NVBP) policy on drug utilization and medical expenditures of hypertension patients in public medical institutions in mainland China.Methods: This study used patient-level data based on electronic health records retrieved from the hospital information system of Nanjing Hospital of Chinese Medicine. Data on patients with hypertension who received care at this institution between 2016 and 2021 was used for analysis. Segmented linear regression models incorporating Interrupted Time Series (ITS) analysis were adopted to examine the effects of NVBP policy on drug utilization and health expenditures of eligible patients. Drug utilization volume and health expenditures were the primary outcomes used to assess the policy effects, and were measured using the prescription proportion of each drug class and the overall per-encounter treatment costs.Results: After the implementation of NVBP policy, the volume of non-winning drugs decreased from 54.42% to 36.25% for outpatient care and from 35.62% to 15.65% for inpatient care. The ITS analysis showed that the volume of bid-winning drugs in outpatient and inpatient settings increased by 9.55% (p < 0.001) and 6.31% (p < 0.001), respectively. The volume changes in non-volume based purchased (non-VBP) drugs differed between outpatients and inpatients. The proportion of non-VBP drugs immediately increased by 5.34% (p = 0.002) overall, and showed an upward trend in the outpatient setting specially (p < 0.001) during the post-intervention period. However, no significant differences were observed in the proportion of non-VBP drugs in inpatient setting (p > 0.05) in term of level change (p > 0.05) or trend change (p > 0.05). The average per-visit expenditures of outpatients across all drug groups exhibited an upward trend (p < 0.05) post policy intervention. In addition, a similar increase in the overall costs for chemical drugs were observed in inpatient settings (coefficient = 2,599.54, p = 0.036), with no statistically significant differences in the regression slope and level (p = 0.814).Conclusion: The usage proportion of bid-winning drugs increased significantly post policy intervention, indicating greater use of bid-winning drugs and the corresponding substitution of non-winning hypertensive drugs. Drug expenditures for outpatients and health expenditures per visit for inpatients also exhibited an upward trend, suggesting the importance of enhanced drug use management in Traditional Chinese Medicine hospital settings.

ABSTRACTVaricella is an acute, highly contagious disease in susceptible individuals and is preventable through vaccination. This study aimed to determine the impact of varicella vaccination on hospitalizations and complications at a pediatric reference hospital in Panama before and after the vaccine introduction. This descriptive ecological study analyzed clinical records of patients diagnosed with varicella through a retrospective and interrupted time series analysis. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was built to compare the incidence rates observed after vaccination with those expected rates derived from the model. A statistical model was fitted to the observed interrupted time series data by regression and used to predict future trends. The mean difference in varicella hospital discharges before and after the introduction of the varicella vaccine was 47%. The rate of hospitalizations for varicella decreased to 52.3%. A declining trend in varicella hospitalizations was observed from 2015 after vaccine introduction in 2014. Complications in vaccinated patients were secondary skin and soft tissue infection, possibly due to bacterial superinfection. The impact of varicella vaccination on reducing varicella hospital discharges reported at a pediatric reference hospital in Panama was confirmed.

Abstract Background Opioid overdose fatalities are preventable with timely administration of naloxone, an opioid antagonist, during an opioid overdose event. Syringe service programs have pioneered naloxone distribution for potential bystanders of opioid overdose. The objective of this study was to pilot test a multi-component implementation strategy—the systems analysis and improvement approach for naloxone (SAIA-Naloxone)—with the goal of improving naloxone distribution by syringe service programs. Methods Two syringe service programs participated in a 6-month pilot of SAIA-Naloxone, which included (1) analyzing program data to identify gaps in the naloxone delivery cascade, (2) flow mapping to identify causes of attrition and brainstorm programmatic changes for improvement, and (3) conducting continuous quality improvement to test and assess whether modifications improve the cascade. We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using 52 weeks of data before and 26 weeks of data after initiating SAIA-Naloxone. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the association between SAIA-Naloxone and the weekly number of participants receiving naloxone and number of naloxone doses distributed. Results Over the course of the study, 11,107 doses of naloxone were distributed to 6,071 participants. Through SAIA-Naloxone, syringe service programs prioritized testing programmatic modifications to improve data collection procedures, proactively screen and identify naloxone-naïve participants, streamline naloxone refill systems, and allow for secondary naloxone distribution. SAIA-Naloxone was associated with statistically significant increases in the average number of people receiving naloxone per week (37% more SPP participants; 95% CI, 12% to 67%) and average number of naloxone doses distributed per week (105% more naloxone doses; 95% CI, 79% to 136%) beyond the underlying pre-SAIA-Naloxone levels. These initial increases were extended by ongoing positive changes over time (1.6% more SSP participants received naloxone and 0.3% more naloxone doses were distributed in each subsequent week compared to the weekly trend in the pre-SAIA Naloxone period). Conclusions SAIA-Naloxone has strong potential for improving naloxone distribution from syringe service programs. These findings are encouraging in the face of the worsening opioid overdose crisis in the United States and support testing SAIA-Naloxone in a large-scale randomized trial within syringe service programs.

This study examined the public’s sentiments about vaccines by analyzing Twitter data during the CDC’s vaccination management planning stage in the United States. Sentiment scores were assigned to each tweet using a sentiment dictionary and the sentiment changes were analyzed over 52 weeks from November 2020 to November 2021. An interrupted time series model was used to analyze the difference in sentiment, which revealed that there was a shift. Initially, overall sentiments were negative but became positive as the stage of general vaccine supply approached. However, negative sentiments sharply rose when the vaccine supply transitioned to the phase of universalization. The results identified two dominant strategic action fields for vaccines providing polarized messages on Twitter and the negative trend was strong for most of the period. The findings highlight the importance of managing strategic action fields on social networks to prevent mass hysteria during vaccine policy implementation. This study stresses the significance of effectively managing strategic action fields on social media platforms to prevent mass hysteria while implementing vaccine policies.

Background This paper aims to promote the use of simple interrupted time series (ITS) analyses of routine data as a responsive feedback tool to improve public health programs. Although advanced ITS techniques exist, their use is often not feasible due to limitations in funding or research capacity. We propose an Excel-based analysis that requires minimal resources or statistical expertise, and illustrate it by measuring the effect of a radio campaign to promote a family planning call center in Nigeria on the demand for family planning information. Methods We used a single group interrupted time series design (ITS) as a responsive feedback mechanism to determine whether the radio campaign influenced use of the Honey&Banana call center. ITS is ideal when there is no control group. ITS uses the pre-intervention trend to predict what would have happened if the intervention were absent. Results After conducting ITS analyses, the results show that the number of calls requesting family planning information increased throughout the campaign period, with a gain of about 500 additional calls per month, and then decreased after the campaign ended. However, the number of calls gained from the campaign was substantially lower than anticipated. Conclusions While end-of-project impact evaluations are necessary, there should be regular feedback system to provide program implementers with information about the status of the project, such as failures, successes, and areas of improvements. This would allow implementers to make necessary adjustments as needed throughout the intervention period. The finding that the radio campaign was not living up to expectations helped Honey&Banana program implementers to end the campaign prematurely and re-allocate resources to a more promising activity. Our research shows that basic Excel-based ITS analysis of routine data can be a useful tool for receiving regular feedback to guide programming improvements for organizations that have limited resources and/or research capacity.

BackgroundDiagnosis-related group (DRG) payments were gradually introduced and used in 12 public hospitals in L city. Given the high incidence and burden of ischemic stroke, the study aimed to assess the impact of DRG payment reform on inpatient medical resource utilization.MethodsData were obtained from the DRG local database of the new Chinese cooperative medical program in L city. The study used interrupted time series analysis to examine changes in length of stay and medical costs before and after the reform, and also assessed changes in different subgroups.ResultsThere were 763 and 4,731 ischemic stroke patients in tertiary hospitals and 1953 and 10,439 patients in secondary hospitals before and after the DRG payment reform, respectively. After the reform, LOS was reduced 0.047 and 0.47 days in tertiary and secondary hospitals, respectively. Medical expenses decreased by 30.189 yuan in tertiary hospitals, but those increased by 44.918 yuan in secondary hospitals monthly. For gender, the average LOS reduced by 0.462 and 0.471 days for male and female in secondary hospitals. The change in medical expenses for male patients in tertiary hospitals and female in secondary hospitals were more significant, with a decrease of 65.396 yuan and increase of 56.257 yuan. The most pronounced change in resource consumption was seen for patients aged 85 years and older, with an increase in average LOS and medical expenses by 0.394 days and 382.422 yuan in tertiary hospitals. They showed a reduction in the average LOS by 1.480 days, and increase in the average medical expenses by 133.485 yuan in secondary hospitals monthly. Regarding disease severity, the most significant changes were seen in MCC patients. The average LOS decreased by 0.197 and 0.928 days and the average medical expenses decreased by 131.526 and 21.631 yuan in tertiary and secondary hospitals, respectively.ConclusionThe implementation of DRG payment system has led to a reduction in the LOS in various levels of hospitals, which would save in bed resources. However, DRG payment reform can help to control medical expenses for ultra-high cases, but it may not be useful to control the overall increase in medical expenses.

Background: New Zealand (NZ) implemented some of the strictest restrictions during the novel coronavirus pandemic (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). How this impacted asthma exacerbation rates in NZ is unknown. Objective: We sought to explore the effects of the COVID-19 restrictions on asthma exacerbations in NZ during 2020. Methods: We used a population-based, interrupted time series to examine the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown in NZ on asthma exacerbation rate. The primary outcome measure was change in the monthly exacerbation rate, defined as hospitalization and/or course of corticosteroids, before and after the first lockdown. In a secondary analysis, we quantified the number of patients with asthma, the actual asthma exacerbation rate from March to December 2019 versus March to December 2020, and the number of asthma hospitalizations. Results: There was a significant drop in the exacerbation rate immediately after lockdown (−3.02; P < .0001) followed by a significant and sustained increasing trend; the rate postlockdown increased relative to that prelockdown (0.27; P < .0001). Similar patterns were observed in all sociodemographic groups. In our secondary analysis, we identified 507,622 people with asthma; this reduced to 458,023 in 2020 postlockdown. The overall asthma exacerbation rate was 33.3% less in 2020 than in 2019 (reduction from 48.6/1000 patients to 32.4/1000 patients). The rate of asthma hospitalizations decreased from 9.5 per 1000 patients in 2019 to 6.2 per 1000 patients in 2020; this decrease was observed across all demographic groups. Conclusions: The first COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 in NZ significantly reduced asthma exacerbation rates across all sociodemographic groups. Whether these reductions are sustained requires further investigation.