46 results on '"Caldeira, Ken"'
Search Results
2. Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 [degrees]C climate target
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Tong, Dan, Zhang, Qiang, Zheng, Yixuan, Caldeira, Ken, Shearer, Christine, Hong, Chaopeng, and Qin, Yue
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Fossil fuel power plants -- Environmental aspects -- Growth ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Control ,Company growth ,Market trend/market analysis ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO.sub.2) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts.sup.1-5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already 'committed' future CO.sub.2 emissions.sup.6-13. Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO.sub.2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO.sub.2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO.sub.2, depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37-427) gigatonnes CO.sub.2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO.sub.2) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420-580 gigatonnes CO.sub.2).sup.5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C (1,170-1,500 gigatonnes CO.sub.2).sup.5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced.sup.14,15, and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions.sup.16. Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO.sub.2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals.sup.17. Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable.sup.4,18. A comprehensive assessment of 'committed' carbon dioxide emissions--from existing and proposed fossil-fuel-based infrastructure--finds that these emissions may exceed the level required to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius., Author(s): Dan Tong [sup.1] [sup.2] , Qiang Zhang [sup.2] , Yixuan Zheng [sup.2] [sup.3] , Ken Caldeira [sup.3] , Christine Shearer [sup.4] , Chaopeng Hong [sup.1] , Yue Qin [sup.1] [...]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
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3. Greater future global warming inferred from Earths recent energy budget
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Brown, Patrick T. and Caldeira, Ken
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Global warming -- Environmental aspects ,Electric power generation -- Environmental aspects ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earths top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated., Author(s): Patrick T. Brown (corresponding author) [1]; Ken Caldeira [1] Many relevant impacts of global climate change are expected to scale with the change in global mean surface air temperature [...]
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- 2017
- Full Text
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4. Assumptions for emergent constraints
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Brown, Patrick T., Stolpe, Martin B., and Caldeira, Ken
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Climate sensitivity -- Analysis ,Climate models -- Usage -- Analysis ,Climate ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Author(s): Patrick T. Brown [sup.1] , Martin B. Stolpe [sup.2] , Ken Caldeira [sup.1] Author Affiliations:(1) Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, USA(2) Institute for Atmospheric and [...]
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- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification
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Albright, Rebecca, Caldeira, Lilian, Hosfelt, Jessica, Kwiatkowski, Lester, Maclaren, Jana K., Mason, Benjamin M., Nebuchina, Yana, Ninokawa, Aaron, Pongratz, Julia, Ricke, Katharine L., Rivlin, Tanya, Schneider, Kenneth, Sesboue, Marine, Shamberger, Kathryn, Silverman, Jacob, Wolfe, Kennedy, Zhu, Kai, and Caldeira, Ken
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Ocean acidification -- Analysis ,Coral reefs and islands -- Research -- Physiological aspects ,Calcification -- Analysis ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Approximately one-quarter of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere each year is absorbed by the global oceans, causing measurable declines in surface ocean pH, carbonate ion concentration ([C[O.sub.3.sup.2-]), [...]
- Published
- 2016
6. Stop emissions! A climate scientist argues that public attitudes must change so that it is no longer acceptable to dump carbon dioxide in the sky
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Caldeira, Ken
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Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Environmental aspects -- Forecasts and trends -- Laws, regulations and rules ,Climatic changes -- Forecasts and trends -- Laws, regulations and rules -- Environmental aspects ,Alternative energy sources -- Environmental aspects -- Laws, regulations and rules -- Forecasts and trends ,Government regulation ,Market trend/market analysis ,Business ,Computers and office automation industries ,High technology industry - Abstract
Many years ago, I protested at the gates of a nuclear power plant. For a long time, I believed it would be easy to get energy from biomass, wind, and [...]
- Published
- 2016
7. Contrails: tweaking flight altitude could be a climate win
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Caldeira, Ken and McKay, Ian
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Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Letter to the Editor, Author(s): Ken Caldeira, Ian McKay Author Affiliations: Contrails: tweaking flight altitude could be a climate win By our calculation, preventing most of the damaging impact of aircraft vapour trails (contrails) [...]
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- 2021
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8. Carbon dioxide addition to coral reef waters suppresses net community calcification
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Albright, Rebecca, Takeshita, Yuichiro, Koweek, David A., Ninokawa, Aaron, Wolfe, Kennedy, Rivlin, Tanya, Nebuchina, Yana, Young, Jordan, and Caldeira, Ken
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Calcification (Physiology) -- Environmental aspects ,Coral reefs -- Environmental aspects ,Carbon dioxide -- Environmental aspects ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Author(s): Rebecca Albright (corresponding author) [1, 2]; Yuichiro Takeshita [1, 3]; David A. Koweek [1]; Aaron Ninokawa [4]; Kennedy Wolfe [5]; Tanya Rivlin [6, 7]; Yana Nebuchina [1]; Jordan Young [...]
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- 2018
- Full Text
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9. The need for climate engineering research
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Caldeira, Ken and Keith, David W.
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Greenhouse gases -- Control -- Political aspects ,Air quality management -- Political aspects ,Carbon dioxide -- Control -- Political aspects ,Geoengineering -- Political aspects ,Climatic changes -- Political aspects ,Emissions (Pollution) -- Composition -- Control -- Political aspects ,Science and technology - Abstract
Like it or not, a climate emergency is a possibility, and geoengineering could be the only affordable and fast-acting option to avoid a global catastrophe. Climate change triggered by the [...]
- Published
- 2010
10. Future C[O.sub.2] emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure
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Davis, Steven J., Caldeira, Ken, and Matthews, H. Damon
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Climatic changes -- Forecasts and trends ,Climatic changes -- Control ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Environmental aspects ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Control ,Energy minerals -- Environmental aspects ,Fossil fuels -- Environmental aspects ,Carbon sequestration -- Management ,Market trend/market analysis ,Company business management ,Science and technology - Abstract
Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide--emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upperbounding scenarios) gigatonnes of C[O.sub.2] from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3[degrees]C (1.1[degrees] to 1.4[degrees]C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of C02 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, C[O.sub.2]-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives. 10.1126/science.1188566
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- 2010
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11. Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change
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Cao, Long, Bala, Govindasamy, Caldeira, Ken, Nemani, Ramakrishna, and Ban-Weiss, George
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Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Environmental aspects ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Physiological aspects ,Climatic changes -- Research ,Science and technology - Abstract
An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e., trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e., reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased C[O.sub.2] using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling oft C[O.sub.2], the radiative effect of C[O.sub.2] causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 [+ or -] 0.02 K ([+ or -]1 standard error), whereas the physiological effects of C[O.sub.2] on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 [+ or -] 0.02 K. Combined, these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 [+ or -] 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling C[O.sub.2] increases global runoff by 5.2 [+ or -] 0.6 %, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 [+ or -] 0.6%, primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined, these two effects cause a 14.9 [+ or -] 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to C[O.sub.2]-radiative forcing, whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to C[O.sub.2]-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric C[O.sub.2] on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of C[O.sub.2]. global warming | runoff | evapotranspiration | hydrological cycle | plant stomata www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0913000107
- Published
- 2010
12. Consumption-based accounting of C[O.sub.2] emissions
- Author
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Davis, Steven J. and Caldeira, Ken
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Emissions credit trading -- Statistics ,Emissions credit trading -- Forecasts and trends ,Emissions credit trading -- Demographic aspects ,Energy minerals -- Environmental aspects ,Fossil fuels -- Environmental aspects ,Global warming -- Causes of ,Global warming -- Control ,Market trend/market analysis ,Science and technology - Abstract
C[O.sub.2] emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the primary cause of global warming. Much attention has been focused on the C[O.sub.2] directly emitted by each country, but relatively little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions associated with the consumption of goods and services in each country. Consumption-based accounting of C[O.sub.2] emissions differs from traditional, production-based inventories because of imports and exports of goods and services that, either directly or indirectly, involve C[O.sub.2] emissions. Here, using the latest available data, we present a global consumption-based C[O.sub.2] emissions inventory and calculations of associated consumption-based energy and carbon intensities. We find that, in 2004, 23% of global C[O.sub.2] emissions, or 6.2 gigatonnes C[O.sub.2], were traded internationally, primarily as exports from China and other emerging markets to consumers in developed countries, in some wealthy countries, including Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, the United Kingdom, and France, >30% of consumption-based emissions were imported, with net imports to many Europeans of >4 tons C[O.sub.2] per person in 2004. Net import of emissions to the United States in the same year was somewhat less: 10.8% of total consumption-based emissions and 2.4 tons C[O.sub.2] per person. In contrast, 22.5% of the emissions produced in China in 2004 were exported, on net, to consumers elsewhere. Consumption-based accounting of C[O.sub.2] emissions demonstrates the potential for international carbon leakage. Sharing responsibility for emissions among producers and consumers could facilitate international agreement on global climate policy that is now hindered by concerns over the regional and historical inequity of emissions. carbon intensity of economy | carbon intensity of energy | emissions embodied in trade | fossil fuels | Kaya identity www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0906974107
- Published
- 2010
13. Can ocean iron fertilization mitigate ocean acidification? A letter
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Cao, Long and Caldeira, Ken
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Water acidification -- Control ,Iron -- Environmental aspects ,Iron -- Chemical properties ,Oceanography -- Research ,Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects ,Earth sciences - Abstract
Byline: Long Cao (1), Ken Caldeira (1) Abstract: Ocean iron fertilization has been proposed as a method to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, and there is continued commercial interest in using iron fertilization to generate carbon credits. It has been further speculated that ocean iron fertilization could help mitigate ocean acidification. Here, using a global ocean carbon cycle model, we performed idealized ocean iron fertilization simulations to place an upper bound on the effect of iron fertilization on atmospheric CO.sub.2 and ocean acidification. Under the IPCC A2 CO.sub.2 emission scenario, at year 2100 the model simulates an atmospheric CO.sub.2 concentration of 965 ppm with the mean surface ocean pH 0.44 units less than its pre-industrial value of 8.18. A globally sustained ocean iron fertilization could not diminish CO.sub.2 concentrations below 833 ppm or reduce the mean surface ocean pH change to less than 0.38 units. This maximum of 0.06 unit mitigation in surface pH change by the end of this century is achieved at the cost of storing more anthropogenic CO.sub.2 in the ocean interior, furthering acidifying the deep-ocean. If the amount of net carbon storage in the deep ocean by iron fertilization produces an equivalent amount of emission credits, ocean iron fertilization further acidifies the deep ocean without conferring any chemical benefit to the surface ocean. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA, USA Article History: Registration Date: 04/01/2010 Received Date: 30/10/2009 Accepted Date: 02/01/2010 Online Date: 20/01/2010 Article note: Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9799-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
- Published
- 2010
14. The role of terrestrial plants in limiting atmospheric C[O.sub.2] decline over the past 24 million years
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Pagani, Mark, Caldeira, Ken, Berner, Robert, and Beerling, David J.
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Silicates -- Environmental aspects -- Research ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Research -- Environmental aspects ,Chemical weathering -- Research -- Environmental aspects ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Environmental conditions during the past 24 million years are thought to have been favourable for enhanced rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide drawdown by silicate chemical weathering (1-7). Proxy records indicate, however, that the Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations did not fall below about 200-250 parts per million during this period (8). The stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near this minimum value suggests that strong negative feedback mechanisms inhibited further drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide by high rates of global silicate rock weathering. Here we investigate one possible negative feedback mechanism, occurring under relatively low carbon dioxide concentrations and in warm climates, that is related to terrestrial plant productivity and its role in the decomposition of silicate minerals9-11. We use simulations of terrestrial and geochemical carbon cycles and available experimental evidence to show that vegetation activity in upland regions of active orogens was severely limited by near-starvation of carbon dioxide in combination with global warmth over this period. These conditions diminished biotic-driven silicate rock weathering and thereby attenuated an important long-term carbon dioxide sink. Although our modelling results are semi-quantitative and do not capture the full range of biogeochemical feedbacks that could influence the climate, our analysis indicates that the dynamic equilibrium between plants, climate and the geosphere probably buffered the minimum atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 24 million years., Alkenone-based proxy records8 indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]) concentrations ranged between 1,000 and 1,500 parts per million (p.p.m.) from about 45 to 34 million years (Myr) ago (the middle [...]
- Published
- 2009
15. A dynamic marine calcium cycle during the past 28 million years
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Griffith, Elizabeth M., Paytan, Adina, Caldeira, Ken, Bullen, Thomas D., and Thomas, Ellen
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Biogeochemical cycles -- Research ,Calcium -- Measurement ,Calcium -- Research ,Sea-water -- Chemical properties ,Sea-water -- Research - Published
- 2008
16. Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering
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Matthews, H. Damon and Caldeira, Ken
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Global warming -- Research ,Global warming -- Control ,Environmental engineering -- Research ,Solar radiation -- Environmental aspects ,Solar radiation -- Research ,Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) -- Research ,Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) -- Environmental aspects ,Science and technology - Abstract
Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing C[O.sub.2]-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual C[O.sub.2] emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as 'dangerous' climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct C[O.sub.2]-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system. carbon cycle | climate change | geoengineering | climate forcing | managing solar radiation
- Published
- 2007
17. Harnessing high-altitude wind power
- Author
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Roberts, Bryan W., Shepard, David H., Caldeira, Ken, Cannon, M. Elizabeth, Eccles, David G., Grenier, Albert J., and Freidin, Jonathan F.
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Wind power -- Environmental aspects ,Wind power -- Buildings and facilities ,Business ,Electronics ,Electronics and electrical industries - Abstract
Flying electric generators (FEGs) are proposed to harness kinetic energy in the powerful, persistent high-altitude winds. Average power density can be as high as 20 kW/[m.sup.2] in an approximately 1000-km-wide band around latitude 30[degrees] in both the hemispheres of the Earth. At 15 000 ft (4600 m) and above, tethered rotorcraft, with four or more rotors mounted on each unit, could give individual rated outputs of up to 40 MW. These aircrafts would be highly controllable and could be flown in arrays, making them a large-scale source of reliable wind power. The aerodynamics, electrics, and control of these craft are described in detail, along with a description of the tether mechanics. A 240 kW craft has been designed to demonstrate the concept at altitude. It is anticipated that large-scale units would make low-cost electricity available for grid supply, for hydrogen production, or for hydro-storage from large-scale generating facilities. Index Terms--Atmospheric measurements, energy conversion, power conversion, terrestrial atmosphere, wind energy, wind power generation.
- Published
- 2007
18. Carbonate deposition, climate stability, and Neoproterozoic ice ages
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Ridgwell, Andy J., Kennedy, Martin J., and Caldeira, Ken
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Science and technology - Abstract
The evolutionary success of planktic calcifiers during the Phanerozoic stabilized the climate system by introducing a new mechanism that acts to buffer ocean carbonate-ion concentration: the saturation-dependent preservation of carbonate in sea-floor sediments. Before this, buffering was primarily accomplished by adjustment of shallow-water carbonate deposition to balance oceanic inputs from weathering on land. Neoproterozoic ice ages of near-global extent and multimillion-year duration and the formation of distinctive sedimentary (cap) carbonates can thus be understood in terms of the greater sensitivity of the Precambrian carbon cycle to the loss of shallow-water environments and C[O.sup.2]-climate feedback on ice-sheet growth., The growth of continental-scale ice sheets extending to the tropics during the second half of the Neoprotemzoic (1000 to 540 million years ago) (1) is now widely accepted in the [...]
- Published
- 2003
19. An issue of permanence: assessing the effectiveness of temporary carbon storage
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Herzog, Howard, Caldeira, Ken, and Reilly, John
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Air pollution -- Research ,Climatic changes -- Research ,Earth sciences - Abstract
In this paper, we present a method to quantify the effectiveness of carbon mitigation options taking into account the 'permanence' of the emissions reduction. While the issue of permanence is most commonly associated with a 'leaky' carbon sequestration reservoir, we argue that this is an issue that applies to just about all carbon mitigation options. The appropriate formulation of this problem is to ask 'what is the value of temporary storage?' Valuing temporary storage can be represented as a familiar economic problem, with explicitly stated assumptions about carbon prices and the discount rate. To illustrate the methodology, we calculate the sequestration effectiveness for injecting C[O.sub.2] at various depths in the ocean. Analysis is performed for three limiting carbon price assumptions: constant carbon prices (assumes constant marginal damages), carbon prices rise at the discount rate (assumes efficient allocation of a cumulative emissions cap without a backstop technology), and carbon prices first rise at the discount rate but become constant after a given time (assumes introduction of a backstop technology). Our results show that the value of relatively deep ocean carbon sequestration can be nearly equivalent to permanent sequestration if marginal damages (i.e., carbon prices) remain constant or if there is a backstop technology that caps the abatement cost in the not too distant future. On the other hand, if climate damages are such as to require a fixed cumulative emissions limit and there is no backstop, then a storage option with even very slow leakage has limited value relative to a permanent storage option.
- Published
- 2003
20. Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: energy for a greenhouse planet
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Hoffert, Martin I., Caldeira, Ken, Benford, Gregory, Criswell, David R., Green, Christopher, Herzog, Howard, Jain, Atul K., Kheshgi, Haroon S., Lackner, Klaus S., Lewis, John S., Lightfoot, H. Douglas, Manheimer, Wallace, Mankins, John C., Mauel, Michael E., Perkins, L. John, Schlesinger, Michael E., Volk, Tyler, and Wigley, Tom M.L.
- Subjects
Economic development -- Causes of -- Research ,Climatic changes -- Research ,Power resources -- Research ,Science and technology ,United Nations. Framework Convention on Climate Change - Abstract
Stabilizing the carbon dioxide-induced component of climate change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course toward such stabilization will require the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energy demand. Mid-century primary power requirements that are free of carbon dioxide emissions could be several times what we now derive from fossil fuels (~[10.sup.13] watts), even with improvements in energy efficiency. Here we survey possible future energy sources, evaluated for their capability to supply massive amounts of carbon emission-free energy and for their potential for large-scale commercialization. Possible candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non-primary power technologies that could contribute to climate stabilization include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies that limit their ability to stabilize global climate. We conclude that a broad range of intensive research and development is urgently needed to produce technological options that can allow both climate stabilization and economic development., More than a century ago, Arrhenius put forth the idea that C[O.sub.2] from fossil fuel burning could raise the infrared opacity of the atmosphere enough to warm Earth (1). In [...]
- Published
- 2002
21. Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content
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Hoffert, Martin I., Caldeira, Ken, Jain, Atul K., Haites, Erik F., Harvey, L.D. Danny, Potter, Seth D., Schlesinger, Michael E., and Schneider, Stephen H.
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Energy policy -- Environmental aspects ,Greenhouse gases -- Research ,Power resources -- Research ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
The United Nations (UN) has called for greenhouse gas concentration to be stabilized in its Convention on Climate Change, in order to prevent global warming. Stabilization will need cost-effective and innovative technology if economic growth is to continue, and this is true even if the productivity of primary energy is improved on a sustained basis. The lower the emission targets, the more carbon-emission-free power will be needed. There is a need for large investments in energy research due to the major challenge involved in infrastructure transition.
- Published
- 1998
22. Late Permian extinctions
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Martin, Ronald, Vermeij, Geerat J., Dorritie, Daniel, Caldeira, Ken, Rampino, Michael R., Knoll, Andrew H., Bambach, Richard K., Canfield, Donald, Grotzinger, John P., Wignall, Paul B., and Twitchett, Richard J.
- Subjects
Mass extinction theory -- Research ,Paleobotany -- Research ,Science and technology ,Research - Abstract
In their article 'Comparative Earth history and Late Permian mass extinction' (1), A. H. Knoll et al. suggest that Late Permian extinctions were caused by the release to the atmosphere [...]
- Published
- 1996
23. Long-term control of atmospheric carbon dioxide: low-temperature seafloor alteration or terrestrial silicate-rock weathering?
- Author
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Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Research ,Rocks, Sedimentary -- Research ,Weathering -- Research ,Ocean bottom -- Research ,Earth sciences - Abstract
Silicate-rock weathering on land has been the principal regulator of long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide content, not low-temperature seafloor basalt alteration. This negates a previous hypothesis that seafloor alteration, not terrestrial silicate rock weathering, is the most significant factor in determining long-term steady-state atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
- Published
- 1995
24. Enhanced Cenozoic chemical weathering and the subduction of pelagic carbonate
- Author
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Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Geology, Stratigraphic -- Cenozoic ,Strontium -- Isotopes ,Chemical weathering -- Research ,Carbonates -- Research ,Subduction zones (Geology) -- Research ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Published
- 1992
25. The maximum entropy principle: A critical discussion; An Editorial Comment
- Author
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Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Earth sciences - Abstract
Byline: Ken Caldeira (1) Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA, 94305-4150, USA Article History: Registration Date: 03/10/2007 Received Date: 24/09/2007 Accepted Date: 01/10/2007 Online Date: 02/11/2007
- Published
- 2007
26. Time is not on our side
- Author
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Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
The Weather Makers: How Man is Changing the Climate and What it Means for Life on Earth (Book) -- Flannery, Tim ,Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change (Book) -- Kolbert, Elizabeth ,Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change (Nonfiction work) -- Book reviews ,Books -- Book reviews - Abstract
FIELD NOTES FROM A CATASTROPHE: Man, Nature, and Climate Change. Elizabeth Kolbert. x + 210 pp. Bloomsbury, 2006. $22.95. THE WEATHER MAKERS: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What [...]
- Published
- 2006
27. Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without C[O.sub.2] emission. (Reports)
- Author
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Caldeira, Ken, Jain, Atul K., and Hoffert, Martin I.
- Subjects
Climatic changes -- Research -- Causes of ,Science and technology ,Research ,Causes of - Abstract
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for 'stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.' Even if we could determine a 'safe' level of interference in the climate system, the sensitivity of global mean temperature to increasing atmospheric C[O.sub.2] is known perhaps only to a factor of three or less. Here we show how a factor of three uncertainty in climate sensitivity introduces even greater uncertainty in allowable increases in atmospheric C[O.sub.2] concentration and allowable C[O.sub.2] emissions. Nevertheless, unless climate sensitivity is low and acceptable amounts of climate change are high, climate stabilization will require a massive transition to C[O.sub.2] emission-free energy technologies., Climate sensitivity (Δ[T.sub.2X]) is the global mean climatological temperature change resulting from a doubling of atmospheric C[O.sub.2] content. Climate sensitivity is thought, based primarily on models, to lie in the [...]
- Published
- 2003
28. Post-125 Ma carbon storage associated with continent-continent collision: comment and reply
- Author
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Kerrick, Derril, Caldeira, Ken, Selverstone, Jane, and Gutzler, David S.
- Subjects
Paleoclimatology -- Research ,Climatic changes -- Research ,Plate tectonics -- Research ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Research ,Earth sciences - Abstract
The post-125 Ma global cooling may have been influenced by the displacement of carbon from the atmosphere to deep-seated metamorphic reservoirs during the Tethyan continent-continent collision. However, the effect of carbon trapped in orogenic environments on atmospheric CO2 is limited by its influence on the relative rates of degassing and silicate weathering. Continental collision can also enhance CO2 degassing to the atmosphere as a result of increased metamorphism of CO2 source rocks.
- Published
- 1994
29. Insensitivity of global warming potentials to carbon dioxide emission scenarios
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken and Kasting, James F.
- Subjects
Carbon dioxide -- Environmental aspects ,Global warming -- Observations ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Analysis ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Carbon dioxide emission scenarios do not influence the global warming potential of CO2 with respect to other radioactive trace gases. Six scenarios are examined to indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentration is inversely proportional to the variation in climate. The sea absorbs less CO2 from the atmosphere due to increased concentrations of dissolved carbon in the sea's surface.
- Published
- 1993
30. The life span of the biosphere revisited
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken and Kasting, James F.
- Subjects
Biosphere -- Environmental aspects ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Models ,Heat budget (Geophysics) -- Models ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
As the luminosity of the sun increases and warms the earth, atmospheric carbon dioxide will eventually decrease below the level necessary for photosynthesis and life will end on the Earth. The decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is caused by the increased weathering of silicate rocks, which is induced by the raised temperature. A model incorporating the greenhouse effect and the photosynthesis requirements of C4 plants predicts that the biosphere will last another 0.9 to 1.5 billion years, depending on whether increased temperature or decreased CO2 is the deciding factor.
- Published
- 1992
31. Susceptibility of the early Earth to irreversible glaciation caused by carbon ice clouds
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken and Kasting, James F.
- Subjects
Paleoclimatology -- Models ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Research ,Internal heat (Geology) ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
The warming of the Earth soon after it formed probably prevented the onset of an interminable glacial climate due to highly reflective carbon dioxide (CO2) clouds and the Sun's much less intense output of heat at the time. The suggestion that an early greenhouse effect stabilized the Earth's climate does not explain why the oceans failed to freeze before the greenhouse gases could accumulate. Paleoclimatic simulations indicate that Earth may have narrowly escaped being rendered uninhabitable by world-wide glaciation thanks to either internal heat or additional greenhouse gases.
- Published
- 1992
32. Atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel carbon dioxide
- Author
-
Archer, David, Eby, Michael, Brovkin, Victor, Ridgwell, Andy, Cao, Long, Mikolajewicz, Uwe, Caldeira, Ken, Matsumoto, Katsumi, Munhoven, Guy, Montenegro, Alvaro, and Tokos, Kathy
- Subjects
Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) -- Environmental aspects ,Energy minerals -- Environmental aspects ,Fossil fuels -- Environmental aspects ,Astronomy ,Earth sciences - Published
- 2009
33. Continental-pelagic carbonate partitioning and the global carbonate-silicate cycle
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Biogeochemical cycles -- Models ,Carbonate minerals -- Research ,Sedimentation and deposition -- Research ,Chemical weathering -- Research ,Earth sciences - Abstract
A carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle model is developed and used to explore dynamic and climatic consequences of constraints on shallow-water carbonate burial and possible carbon loss to the mantle associated with sea-floor subduction. The model partitions carbonate deposition between shallow-water and deep-water environments and includes carbon fluxes between the mantle and lithosphere. When total lithospheric carbonate mass is constant, there are two stable steady states, one in which the carbonate burial flux is mostly continental and another in which it is mostly pelagic. The continental steady state is characterized by a low metamorphic [CO.sub.2] flux to the atmosphere and predominantly shallow-water carbonate burial. The pelagic steady state is characterized by a high metamorphic [CO.sub.2] flux and predominantly deep-water carbonate burial. For reasonable parameter values, when total lithospheric carbonate mass is allowed to vary, the model oscillates between predominantly continental and predominantly pelagic modes. Model results suggest that carbonate deposition patterns established during the Cenozoic may be pushing the Earth system from the continental to the pelagic mode on a time scale of [10.sup.8] yr, with a possible consequent order-of-magnitude increase in the metamorphic [CO.sub.2] flux to the atmosphere.
- Published
- 1991
34. The Role of the Southern Ocean in Uptake and Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken and Duffy, Philip B.
- Subjects
Southern Ocean -- Equipment and supplies ,Oceanographic research -- Analysis -- Equipment and supplies -- Research ,Sea ice -- Research -- Equipment and supplies -- Analysis ,Fluid dynamics -- Research -- Equipment and supplies -- Analysis ,Carbon compounds -- Research -- Equipment and supplies -- Analysis ,Science and technology ,Analysis ,Research ,Equipment and supplies - Abstract
An ocean-climate model that shows high fluxes of anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the Southern Ocean, but very low storage of anthropogenic carbon there, agrees with observation-based estimates of ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. This low simulated storage indicates a subordinate role for deep convection in the present-day Southern Ocean. The primary mechanism transporting anthropogenic carbon out of the Southern Ocean is isopycnal transport. These results imply that if global climate change reduces the density of surface waters in the Southern Ocean, isopycnal surfaces that now outcrop may become isolated from the atmosphere, tending to diminish Southern Ocean carbon uptake., There has been considerable debate (1, 2) about the importance of Southern Ocean uptake of anthropogenic [CO.sub.2]. Several modeling studies (2-6) have indicated a relatively large Southern Ocean sink for [...]
- Published
- 2000
35. One known way to cool the Earth
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Cooling -- Methods ,Climate change -- Environmental aspects ,News, opinion and commentary - Abstract
Byline: Ken Caldeira If current trends in greenhouse gas emissions continue, unprecedented megadroughts may plague much of the western USA, and the tropics may get so hot that widespread crop [...]
- Published
- 2015
36. An ancient carbon mystery
- Author
-
Pagani, Mark, Caldeira, Ken, Archer, David, and Zachos, James C.
- Subjects
Carbon -- Research ,Climatic changes -- Research ,Global warming -- Research - Published
- 2006
37. The need for mass balance and feedback in the geochemical carbon cycle
- Author
-
Berner, Robert A. and Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Geochemistry -- Analysis ,Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) -- Analysis ,Earth sciences - Abstract
Edmond et al. conducted a study on the geochemical carbon cycle. Geochemical or long term carbon cycle consists of carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between rocks and surficial systems which includes the combined atmosphere, soils, oceans, and biosphere. The exchange is done through the deterioration of silicates and organic matter and the thermal disintegration of carbonates and organic matter. Based on their study, it is not necessary to have a mass balance for the atmospheric CO2 inputs and outputs and there is no need for a feedback to have an equilibrium in atmospheric CO2.
- Published
- 1997
38. How to Cool the Globe
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
National Academy of Sciences ,Greenhouse gases -- Control -- Usage ,Volcanoes -- United States -- Influence ,Global warming -- Prevention -- Usage -- Control ,Rockets (Aeronautics) -- Usage ,Stratosphere -- Properties -- Usage ,Sulfates -- Usage - Abstract
DESPITE growing interest in clean energy technology, it looks as if we are not going to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide anytime soon. The amount in the atmosphere today exceeds […]
- Published
- 2007
39. When Being Green Raises the Heat
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Global warming -- Control -- Prevention -- Environmental aspects ,Reforestation -- Environmental aspects ,Carbon dioxide -- Environmental aspects ,General interest ,News, opinion and commentary - Abstract
CARBON DIOXIDE is heating up the Earth. Ice caps are melting, ocean levels are rising, hurricanes are intensifying, tropical diseases are spreading and the threat of droughts, floods and famines [...]
- Published
- 2007
40. Cooling in the late Cenozoic
- Author
-
Volk, Tyler, Caldeira, Ken, Arthur, Michael A., Berner, Robert A., Lasaga, Antonio C., Raymo, Maureen E., and Ruddiman, William
- Subjects
Paleoclimatology -- Models ,Climatic changes -- Causes of ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Research ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
The hypothesis that the rise of the Tibetan plateau helped to lower global temperatures by increasing the quantity of carbon dioxide(CO2)-absorbing silicate rock is questionable. The numerical data underlying this hypothesis are incomplete. Moreover, the implication that CO2 fluctuations are linked to geological weathering is unproven. However, the rebuttal view is that some carbon cycle models do relate to silicate and carbonate weathering. The hypothesis agrees well with the geological data.
- Published
- 1993
41. Coal's future: clearing the air
- Author
-
Rau, Greg H. and Caldeira, Ken
- Published
- 2007
42. Oceanography: Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken and Wickett, Michael E.
- Subjects
Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Author(s): Ken Caldeira (corresponding author) [1]; Michael E. Wickett [2] Most carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels will eventually be absorbed [...]
- Published
- 2003
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. What has posterity done for us? It's not the point
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
Author(s): Ken Caldeira [1] Sir To understand why many physical scientists regard economists with scepticism, one need look no further than the Concepts essay on discounting ('An eye on the [...]
- Published
- 2002
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
44. Evolutionary pressures on planktonic production of atmospheric sulphur
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken
- Subjects
Condensation (Meteorology) -- Research ,Dimethyl sulfide -- Research ,Marine phytoplankton -- By-products ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Published
- 1989
45. Solar variability and the earth's climate
- Author
-
Hoffert, Martin I., Caldeira, Ken, Covey, Curt, Duffy, Philip B., and Santer, Benjamin D.
- Subjects
Global warming -- Research ,Environmental issues ,Science and technology ,Zoology and wildlife conservation - Abstract
The views of E.N. Parker on the potential impact on terrestrial climate, published with the paper on solar variability of M. Lockwood and others are inaccurate and out of line with Lockwood's evidence. Parker's suggestion that solar brightening causes an increase in carbon dioxide levels comparable with the expulsion of carbon dioxide from a warm carbonated drink is exaggerated.
- Published
- 1999
46. The need for mass balance and feedback in the geochemical carbon cycle: reply
- Author
-
Caldeira, Ken and Berner, Robert A.
- Subjects
Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Research ,Atmospheric chemistry -- Research ,Climatology -- Research ,Weathering -- Research ,Sedimentation and deposition -- Economic aspects ,Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) -- Research ,Earth sciences - Abstract
Mike J. Bickle's critique of the article 'The need for mass balance and feedback in the geochemical carbon cycle' observes that substantial sediment output in the Himalayan-Tibetan region should affect the global weathering rate. Enhanced sediment output might impact the long-term weathering rate only if it affects the amount of carbon dioxide available to weather silicon rocks. It does not follow that the amount for extra carbon dioxide for enhanced erosion-accelerated weathering will necessarily be provided in the exact amount and simultaneously by greater metamorphic de-gassing.
- Published
- 1998
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