Search

Forestry projects participate in carbon markets by sequestering carbon dioxide equivalent (C[O.sub.2]e) and producing carbon offsets. The creation of forest-based offsets is guided by protocols that dictate how sequestered C[O.sub.2]e is converted into marketable offsets. Existing protocol designs aim to produce offsets that meet sustainability requirements, while providing financial incentives for landowner participation. However, limited Canadian uptake implies that current financial incentives are insufficient to encourage the production of carbon offsets via private landowners. Here we consider various design features of four protocols and their financial implications for an illustrative afforestation project in southern Ontario, Canada. We explore the protocols (two tonne-tonne protocols and two tonne-year protocols) under two afforestation project management systems ('no-harvest' and 'harvest' management scenarios). Results indicate that a project that terminates in a harvest is not economically attractive at current C[O.sub.2]e prices under any protocol design at a scale likely to be undertaken in southern Ontario, Canada. Projects that do not conclude in harvest are generally more attractive. Tonne-tonne protocols that pay upfront for sequestered C[O.sub.2]e improve the economic attractiveness of afforestation projects, but the delayed realization of the value of offset credits under tonne-year protocols reduces the economic attractiveness of these projects. We discuss these results in light of the choices facing afforestation project proponents and offset protocol designers (including governments) in general, and provide detailed insights into the financial dynamics of the Canadian case. Key words: forest carbon offset protocol, offset credits, afforestation, economic attractiveness, Ontario, Canada. Les projets forestiers contribuent aux marches du carbone en sequestrant de l'eq. C[O.sub.2] et en produisant des compensations carbone. La creation de compensations basees sur la foret est guidee par des protocoles qui dictent la maniere dont l'eq. C[O.sub.2] sequestre est converti en compensations commercialisables. La conception des protocoles vise a produire des compensations qui repondent aux exigences du developpement durable tout en offrant des incitatifs financiers pour encourager la participation des proprietaires fonciers. Cependant, la sequestration limitee au Canada signifie que les incitatifs financiers sont insuffisants pour encourager la production de compensations carbone par les proprietaires prives. Nous examinons ici differentes caracteristiques de conception en lien avec quatre protocoles et leurs implications financieres pour un projet de boisement dans le sud de l'Ontario au Canada. Nous analysons les protocoles (deux protocoles tonnetonne et deux protocoles tonne-annee) dans le cadre de deux systemes de gestion des projets de boisement (scenarios de gestion << sans recolte >> et << avec recolte >>). Les resultats demontrent qu'un projet qui se termine par une recolte n'est pas economiquement attrayant en fonction du prix actuel de l'eq. C[O.sub.2], quel que soit le protocole a l'echelle a laquelle il serait vraisemblablement entrepris dans le sud de l'Ontario. Les projets qui ne se terminent pas par une recolte sont generalement plus attrayants. Les protocoles tonne-tonne qui retribuent a l'avance l'eq. C[O.sub.2] sequestre ameliorent l'attrait economique des projets de boisement. Par contre, la realisation differee de la valeur des credits compensatoires dans le cadre des protocoles tonne-annee reduit l'attrait economique de ces projets. Nous discutons de ces resultats a la lumiere des choix auxquels sont confrontes les promoteurs de projets de boisement et les concepteurs de protocoles de compensation (incluant les gouvernements) en general et nous fournissons un apercu detaille de la dynamique financiere du cas du Canada. Mots-cles : protocole de compensation du carbone forestier, credits compensatoires, boisement, attrait economique, Ontario, Canada., 1. Introduction In the context of some emission reduction schemes--cap and trade markets, for example--polluters may purchase carbon offsets, a marketable credit representing carbon dioxide equivalent (C[O.sub.2]e) sequestration, to avoid [...]

The burning of wood for bioenergy produces significant amounts of ash residue that requires disposal. We constructed a cost model to evaluate the unit costs of three ash disposal methods in the Canadian context: landfills owned and operated by the bioenergy facility, municipal landfills, and forest site application. The model accounts for costs related to the pretreatment, transportation, and disposal of ash at a landfill or forest site. Model parameter values were assigned appropriate distributions (based on published literature and industry surveys), and Monte Carlo simulations were employed to produce a range of model outputs for each disposal option. Results indicate that existing landfills (if available for ash disposal) are likely the most cost-effective option (median value of $77 per tonne), although applying ash to a forest site is only ~15%-20% more costly (median value of $92 per tonne). Indeed, the unit cost estimates across disposal options have considerable overlap. This suggests that close examination of firm-specific circumstances is highly warranted when choosing a disposal approach, even in the absence of accounting for potential environmental benefits associated with forest site disposal of ash. Key words: wood ash disposal, cost comparison, landfill disposal, forest application, Canada. La combustion du bois pour la bioenergie produit une quantite importante de cendre qui doit etre eliminee. Nous avons construit un modele de cout pour evaluer le cout unitaire de trois methodes d'elimination des cendres dans un contexte canadien, soit les sites d'enfouissement detenus et operes par l'industrie de la bioenergie, les sites d'enfouissement municipaux et l'epandage sur des sites forestiers. Le modele considere les couts lies au pretraitement, au transport et a l'elimination des cendres dans un site d'enfouissement ou un site forestier. Des distributions appropriees (selon la litterature et des enquetes aupres des industries) ont ete attribuees aux valeurs des parametres du modele et des simulations de Monte Carlo ont ete utilisees pour produire un eventail de resultats pour chaque option d'elimination. Les resultats indiquent que les sites d'enfouissement existants (a condition d'etre accessibles pour l'elimination des cendres) constituent vraisemblablement l'option la plus rentable (valeur mediane de 77 $ par tonne), bien que l'epandage des cendres sur un site forestier soit seulement environ 15 a 20 % plus couteux (valeur mediane de 92 $ par tonne). En fait, les couts unitaires estimes pour les diverses options d'elimination se chevauchent considerablement. Ceci porte a croire qu'un examen approfondi de la situation propre a chaque entreprise est plus que justifie pour choisir l'approche adequate d'elimination des residus, et ce meme sans tenir compte des benefices environnementaux potentiels associes a l'epandage des cendres sur un site forestier. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: elimination de la cendre de bois, comparaison des couts, site d'enfouissement, epandage en foret, Canada., Introduction The use of forest biomass to generate energy is expected to increase as governments aspire to phase out traditional fossil fuels and the demand for renewably sourced energy grows. [...]

We present a model that maps the net present value (NPV) associated with planting black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb.) and white pine (Pinus strobus L.) seed sources across a study area centred on Ontario, Canada. The model accounts for climate change through the use of universal response functions, which (in principle) predict the growth of any seed source under any climatic conditions. We demonstrated the use of the model for two locations in northern Ontario; both species exhibited significant variation in NPV across the study area and significant gains associated with climate-smart seed movements. For example, the NPV associated with potential white pine seed sources varied by more than $1500-[ha.sup.-1] for a planting site at North Bay, Ontario. We also compared the NPV maps with climate similarity maps to examine the degree to which simple climate matching can act as a proxy for the detailed genecology relationships contained in the universal response functions. Overall, the climate similarity maps were well-correlated with the NPV maps; however, there was poor agreement regarding white pine seed deployment from North Bay, for which the two approaches identified opposite seed transfer directions. We propose that this situation can arise when species show strong adaptation to a central climatic optimum. Key words: climate change, seed movements, assisted migration, universal response function, net present value, forest economics, climate similarity, Ontario. Nous presentons un modele qui produit une carte de la valeur actualisee nette (VAN) associee a la plantation de differentes provenances d'epicea noir (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb.) et de pin blanc (Pinus strobus L.) dans une aire d'etude centree sur l'Ontario, au Canada. Le modele tient compte du changement climatique en utilisant des fonctions de reponse universelle (FRU) qui, en principe, predisent la croissance de n'importe quelle provenance dans n'importe quelles conditions climatiques. Nous avons illustre l'utilisation du modele pour deux endroits dans le nord de l'Ontario; la variation de la VAN etait significative chez les deux especes a travers l'aire d'etude et il y avait des gains importants associes aux deplacements des semences en fonction du climat. Par exemple, la VAN associee aux provenances potentielles de pin blanc plantees dans une station a North Bay en Ontario variait de plus de 1500 $-[ha.sup.-1]. Nous avons aussi compare les cartes de la VAN aux cartes de similarite climatique pour verifier dans quelle mesure le fait de simplement tenir compte du climat pourrait remplacer les relations genecologiques detaillees contenues dans les FRU. Dans l'ensemble, les cartes de similarite climatique etaient bien correlees avec les cartes de la VAN. Cependant, il y avait une faible concordance concernant le deploiement des semences de pin blanc provenant de North Bay, alors que les deux approches proposaient des directions opposees pour le transfert des semences. Nous croyons que cette situation peut survenir lorsque qu'une espece montre une forte adaptation a un optimum climatique central. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : changement climatique, mouvements des semences, migration assistee, fonction de reponse universelle, valeur actualisee nette, economie forestiere, similarite climatique, Ontario., 1. Introduction Climate change is a significant concern for natural systems and the myriad of economic interests connected with them (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) 2013). In the context [...]

Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management [...]

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2009.04.003 Byline: Robert McLeman (a), Sam Herold (a), Zoran Reljic (a), Mike Sawada (a), Daniel McKenney (b) Abstract: This article describes the development of a GIS-based model of historical drought and population change in western Canada, designed to support qualitative field research into drought adaptation and migration. The model combines digitized census data and recently available modeled historical climate data at a 10km.sup.2 grid cell scale and can be used to generate maps of 'hotspots' where historical declines in rural populations may be associated with extended periods of heat and lack of precipitation. The results suggest a promising avenue for expanding and refining GIS-based modeling of historical human-climate interactions to support qualitative research and to potentially serve as a stepping stone toward forecasting future risk areas of drought-related migration in continental dryland areas. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Geography, University of Ottawa, Simard Hall 031, 60 University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1N 6N5 (b) Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada P6A 2E5

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.11.029 Byline: Elizabeth Ramlal (a), Denys Yemshanov (b), Glenn Fox (a), Daniel McKenney (b) Abstract: This study explores the economic attractiveness of afforestation as a strategy for the joint production of fibre, carbon storage and biosolids (treated municipal sewage sludge) disposal for municipalities in Southern and Central Ontario, Canada. We use a spatial, stochastic model, the Canadian Forest Service Afforestation Feasibility Model (CFS-AFM), to simulate a range of spatial biosolids application scenarios in hybrid poplar afforestation projects. Results suggest that such joint afforestation strategies could be financially attractive. Significant cost savings can be expected through decreases in transportation distances and avoided waste disposal fees. Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the effects of variations in critical model parameters on net present values. Our findings indicate that waste disposal savings from application of biosolids on hybrid poplar plantations combined with incentives for landowners to sequester carbon can easily compete with agricultural land rental values in some regions of Ontario. Social acceptance of this kind of activity, however, may be an impediment to adoption. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G2W1, Canada (b) Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada Article History: Received 9 May 2008; Revised 12 November 2008; Accepted 26 November 2008

In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in North America and elsewhere. Assessments of risks and impacts remain difficult due to complexities and interactions between the many factors driving invasions and outcomes. These processes occur across various spatial and temporal scales, and are often influenced and complicated by human activities. For each component of an ecological invasion (i.e., arrival, establishment, and spread), we review general approaches for modelling the phenomenon and identify data and knowledge gaps. With the greater availability of various spatial data and computational power we suggest the possibility of linking the models for each invasion component into a more integrated framework, thus allowing interactions and feedbacks between components to be better incorporated into risk modelling efforts. The approach is illustrated using examples from current work with Sirex noctilio Fabricius--a relatively new invasive wood wasp in eastern North America. Key words: invasive species, integrated modelling, risk assessment, impact assessment, Sirex noctilio. Les auteurs presentent le survol d'une approche integree pour la modelisation des risques et des impacts associes aux pestes foreslieres non indigenes. II s'agit d'un sujet large et important, compte lenu de l'echelle el des consequences economiques associees aux especes non indigenes, en Amerique du Nord et ailleurs. Les evaluations de risques el d'impacis demeureni diffieiles a cause de la complexity el des inieraclions avec plusieurs facteurs responsables des invasions el de leurs consequences. Ces processus s'effectuent selon differences echelles spatio-temporelles, et sont souvent influences et compliques par les activites humaines. Pour chaque composante d'une invasion ecologique (c.-a-d. arrivee, etablissement et diffusion), les auteurs passent en revue les approches generates pour la modelisation du phenomene ainsi que I'identification des donnees et les manques de connaissance. Avec la disponibilite accrue de diverses donnees spatiales et des capacites informatiques, les auteurs suggerent la possibilite de lier les modeles de chaque composante dans un cadre plus integre, permettant ainsi de mieux incorporer les interactions et les retroactions entre les composantes dans les efforts de modelisation des risques. On illustre cette approche en utilisant des exemples provenant du travail actuel sur le Sirex noctilio Fabricius, une guepe perce-bois envahissante relativement nouvelle dans l'est de l'Amerique du Nord. Mots-cles : especes envahissantes, modelisation integree, evaluation des risques, evaluation des impacts, Sirex noctilio. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The management of non-indigenous species is complex, but critical given potentially large economic and ecological impacts. Gross annual economic losses and control costs in agricultural and forestry sectors due [...]

This study presents a model that assesses the potential impact of a new alien insect species, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, on pine timber supply and harvest activities in eastern Canada. We integrate the spread of S. noctilio with a broad-scale growth and harvest allocation model. Projections of pine mortality range between 25 x 106 and 115 x 106 m3 over 20 years depending on S. noctilio spread and impact assumptions. Our model suggests Ontario could experience the highest, most immediate losses (78% of the potential losses across eastern Canada), with Quebec sustaining most of the rest of the losses over the next 20 years. Potential losses of $86 to $254 million per year are simulated after 20 years. The net present value of total harvest losses after 28 years of outbreak ranges between $0.7 to $2.1 billion. Adaptation policies decrease shortterm losses by 46%-55% and delay larger harvest failures by 9-11 years. Without harvest adaptation, failures to maintain annual allowable cut levels may occur once the total area infested exceeds 15 x 106 ha. While better understanding and representing S. noctilio behaviour will involve a significant effort, there is a strong demand by policy makers for this kind of information. Cette etude presente un modele qui evalue l'impact potentiel d'une nouvelle espece d'insecte exotique, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, sur les stocks de bois de pin et les activites de recolte dans l'est du Canada. Les auteurs ont integre la propagation de S. noctilio a un modele de croissance a grande echelle et d'allocation de la recolte. Les projections concernant la mortalite du pin varient de 25 x [10.sup.6] and 115 x [10.sup.6] sur 20 ans selon les hypotheses de propagation et d'impact de S. noctilio. Leur modele indique que l'Ontario pourrait subir les pertes les plus elevees tres tot (78 % des pertes potentielles de tout l'est du Canada) et le Quebec, presque toutes les pertes a venir au cours de la periode s'etendant sur les 20 prochaines annees. Les pertes annuelles pourraient atteindre 86-254 millions $ apres 20 ans. La valeur actualisee nette des pertes totales de recolte apres 28 annees d'epidemie varie de 0,7 a 2,1 milliards $. Des strategies d'adaptation diminueraient les pertes a court terme de 46-55 % et retarderaient les pires recoltes de 9-11 ans. Sans adaptation de la recolte, l'incapacite a maintenir les niveaux de possibilite annuelle de coupe pourrait survenir lorsque la superficie totale infestee depassera 15 x [10.sup.6] ha. Bien que d'importants efforts restent a faire pour mieux comprendre et representer le comportement de S. noctilio, il y a une forte demande de la part des decideurs pour ce type d'informations. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The impact of alien invasive species on timber supply and harvest activities has been identified as one of the most immediate and potentially damaging threats to Canadian forests (Natural [...]

Traditional plant hardiness zone maps identify areas that are relatively homogeneous with respect to climatic conditions that affect plant survival. Plants are typically categorized according to the most northerly, and […]

Currently predicted change in climate could strongly affect plant distributions during the next century. Here we determine the present-day climatic niches for 130 North American tree species. We then locate […]

Abstract: We have developed a spatial cost-benefit afforestation model that includes the tracking of five carbon pools. In this application we represent three possible afforestation strategies that could be implemented [...]

Abstract: We established 480 remeasurement plots in plantations originally laid out by F.W. von Althen in the 1970s and 1980s for his pioneering work on hardwood planting in southern Ontario. [...]

Byline: Erin Parrish Reade (1), Craig Whaley (1), Jen-Jar Lin (4,5), Daniel W. McKenney (3), Daniel Lee (2), Ronald Perkin (1) Keywords: Sleep apnea; Hypertension; Hypopnea; Obesity Abstract: Obesity is associated with the development of hypertension but it is still not clear why hypertension is not observed in all obese patients. Obesity is a risk factor for the development of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) in children. OSAS has been linked to the development of hypertension in adults and children. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that OSAS is one of the reasons that some obese children are hypertensive and some are not. The overnight polysomnography records of 90 patients (aged 4.2--18.8 years) were reviewed. BMI.sub.score [body mass index (BMI)/95th percentile BMI for age, sex, and race] was used to express the degree of obesity. The severity of systolic hypertension and diastolic hypertension were expressed as SBP.sub.score (systolic BP/the 95th percentile systolic BP for age, sex, and height) and DBP.sub.score (diastolic BP/the 95th percentile diastolic BP for age, sex, and height), respectively. OSAS was defined as more than one episodes of apnea per hour (AI) or an O.sub.2 saturation associated with obstructive apnea of less than 90%. There were 56 obese patients 42 were hypertensive and 40 patients were diagnosed with OSAS. The incidence of hypertension (68% vs. 30%) and obesity (75% vs. 52%) was higher in OSAS patients than those without OSAS. Compared with the non-obese patients, obese patients had a higher incidence of hypertension or OSAS, a higher BMI.sub.score, SBP.sub.score, DBP.sub.score, AI, hypopnea index (HI), and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). In obese patients, both SBP.sub.score and DBP.sub.score correlated positively with BMI.sub.score, arousal index, and HI. DBP.sub.score also correlated positively with AHI. Multiple regression analysis showed that HI and BMI.sub.score were significant independent predictors of SBP.sub.score or DBP.sub.score. Obese and hypertensive patients had a higher HI, AHI, and incidence of OSAS (64% vs. 29%) than the obese and normotensive patients. In conclusion, HI had a significant correlation with the degree of hypertension in obese patients, which could not be attributed to the degree of obesity. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that OSAS is one of the reasons why some obese children are hypertensive and some are not. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Pediatrics, Brody School of Medicine, East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina, USA (2) East Carolina Neurology, Greenville, North Carolina, USA (3) Department of Pediatrics, Kosair Charities Pediatric Center, University of Kentucky at Louisville, Kentucky, USA (4) Department of Pediatrics and Communicable Diseases, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA (5) Department of Pediatric Nephrology, University of Michigan, Mott Children&apos;s Hospital, F6865/0297, 1505 Simpson Road East, Ann Arbor, MI 48109--0297, USA Article History: Registration Date: 28/04/2004 Received Date: 08/09/2003 Accepted Date: 13/04/2004 Online Date: 04/06/2004