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A study was conducted to provide 10 propositions regarding the relationship between housing and the macro economy, taking into account policy concerns. Findings indicate that the private rental market may not expand at the same rates as in the past 10 years. Results also show that the main beneficiaries of new affordability may be existing households.

A study was conducted to show that the traditional approach to land release used by planners, which is based on trend household projections, can lead to worsening affordability over time. An alternative economic model more suitable to the post-Barker era is developed. This model is used to analyze different policy issues

The ways to control population flows from cities and to promote integrated communities in the context of Britain are examined. The effects of governmental policies like planning, area-based and fiscal incentives are evaluated. The results of the Schelling (1971) model and the discrete choice model conclude the possible utilization of fiscal policy to influence population distribution.

Summary. This paper considers how empirical models of urban housing markets might be constructed as a basis for policy analysis. It is suggested that this is fundamentally more difficult than national or regional models, because of particular characteristics of urban markets-- notably, the importance of social interactions, non-linearity and segregation. However, recent advances in the modelling of social interactions point to a possible way forward. The paper begins by reviewing some aspects of this literature and shows how the models generate non-linearities consistent with recent work on thresholds in local housing markets. Simple cellular automata are also used to demonstrate this point and how segregation may arise. A review follows of work on discrete choice models, which include social interactions within their structure. Bringing all the tools together, it is suggested that there is now the potential to construct urban housing models, although a great deal of theoretical and empirical work remains to be done.

In this second of two related papers in this issue, the causes of declining levels of housing transactions in Britain during the 1990s are explored. The lower transaction levels resulted [...]

This paper constitutes the first of two interrelated studies and is concerned with the relationship between house prices and transactions. Using aggregate time-series data, we find a strong relationship in [...]

During the last ten years, macroeconomists have increasingly come to realise that there are important interactions between housing and the wider economy. In some cases, this realisation has come too late to avoid the severe oscillations in the economy that have characterised the period since the mid-1980s. This paper uses a macroeconometric model, specifically designed to capture the interactions, in order to reflect on the experience of the 1980s and early 1990s and to draw theoretical, empirical and policy conclusions in terms of ten propositions., 1. Introduction In recent years, housing issues have attracted an unprecedented level of public attention. This is partly attributable to the strong cycles that have occurred both in terms of [...]

A study was conducted to analyze world economic models. The study evaluated the Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) model. The OEF model was then used as a basis for examining the process of integration among European countries since the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) was established. The study also focused on questions of difference between the UK and the rest of Europe which may effect adjustment to ERM.

The UK mortgage market has undergone important structural changes in recent years. A consequence has been that households are no longer generally subject to mortgage rationing. In this paper we examine some of the results of this change for the housing market. We first construct a simple theoretical model of the housing and mortgage markets and show, as an illustration of the effect of exogenous changes in general, how mortgage tax relief abolition would have different results under alternative regimes. We then quantify these results using a fully estimated model.

According to recent official projections, 4.4 million new households will be formed in England between 1991 and 2016. These estimates are based on a detailed analysis of demographic trends, but take no account of the effect of potential changes in economic conditions, particularly on the owner-occupancy rate. In this paper, we propose a new approach to modelling sustainable owner-occupancy which places less emphasis on demographics, but considers in more detail the role of market mechanisms through changes in house prices and rates of new construction., 1. Introduction For many years projections of social housing need in Britain have been based on a detailed analysis of demographic trends. Recent projections using this methodology are given in [...]