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This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose., (© The Author(s) 2024.)

Today, a major challenge for climate science is to overcome what is called the "usability gap" between the projections derived fromclimate models and the needs of the end-users. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are expected to provide usable information concerning a variety of impacts and for a wide range of end-users. It is often assumed that the development of more accurate, more complex RCMs with higher spatial resolution should bring process understanding and better local projections, thus overcoming the usability gap. In this paper, I rather assume that the credibility of climate information should be pursued together with two other criteria of usability, which are salience and legitimacy. Based on the Swiss climate change scenarios, I study the attempts at meeting the needs of end-users and outline the trade-off modellers and users have to face with respect to the cascade of uncertainty. A conclusion of this paper is that the trade-off between salience and credibility sets the conditions under which RCMs can be deemed adequate for the purposes of addressing the needs of end-users and gearing the communication of the projections toward direct use and action., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestThe author declares no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2024.)

Moving beyond technocratic approaches to climate action, climate justice articulates a paradigm shift in how organizations think about their response to the climate crisis. This paper makes a conceptual contribution by exploring the potential of this paradigm shift in higher education. Through a commitment to advancing transformative climate justice, colleges and universities around the world could realign and redefine their priorities in teaching, research, and community engagement to shape a more just, stable, and healthy future. As inequitable climate vulnerabilities increase, higher education has multiple emerging opportunities to resist, reverse, and repair climate injustices and related socioeconomic and health disparities. Rather than continuing to perpetuate the concentration of wealth and power by promoting climate isolationism's narrow focus on technological innovation and by prioritizing the financial success of alumni and the institution, colleges and universities have an opportunity to leverage their unique role as powerful anchor institutions to demonstrate climate justice innovations and catalyze social change toward a more equitable, renewable-based future. This paper explores how higher education can advance societal transformation toward climate justice, by teaching climate engagement, supporting impactful justice-centered research, embracing non-extractive hiring and purchasing practices, and integrating community-engaged climate justice innovations across campus operations. Two climate justice frameworks, Green New Deal-type policies and energy democracy, provide structure for reviewing a breadth of proposed transformational climate justice initiatives in higher education., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2023.)

Addressing energy provision and access in Sub-Saharan Africa is a key global challenge. Drawing on interviews with key stakeholders, this paper applies an energy justice framework in overviewing energy realities and policies in Malawi, where electricity access remains among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. The use of woodfuel remains high for meeting cooking, heating, and lighting needs leading to indoor air pollution, with serious health consequences, and widespread deforestation. Responses to these dual challenges, a lack of electricity access and ongoing woodfuel use, must be rooted in notions of equity, fairness, and justice. Application of energy justice theorising provides insights into how policy stakeholders are responding to complex and interconnected issues of energy generation and access in low-income settings. Overall, a just response to these energy challenges is possible, but only if it is built on local inclusive governance with fairer and effective systems of investment., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

Fossil fuel producers develop too many reserves for combustion due to subsidies for upfront development costs. The conventional wisdom is that downward-sloping tax profiles avoid green paradox outcomes by reducing present extraction. This paper shows that accounting for subsidized reserves development can induce green paradox outcomes for downward-sloping income tax profiles. A theoretical model linking reserves development and extraction with climate change damages is developed to explore conditions for the weak and strong green paradox outcomes of higher present extraction and cumulative damages. We find that the weak green paradox arises under higher and flatter income tax profiles. The strong green paradox is an ambiguous outcome without subsidized reserves development. Quantitative examples demonstrate the effect of downward-sloping tax profiles on crude oil extraction and how the strong green paradox arises when delayed emissions are less relevant for damages., Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03389-w., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the high end of the risk, i.e., where risks become existential, is poorly framed, defined, and analyzed in the scientific literature. This gap is at odds with the fundamental relevance of existential risks for humanity, and it also limits the ability of scientific communities to engage with emerging debates and narratives about the existential dimension of climate change that have recently gained considerable traction. This paper intends to address this gap by scoping and defining existential risks related to climate change. We first review the context of existential risks and climate change, drawing on research in fields on global catastrophic risks, and on key risks and the so-called Reasons for Concern in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also consider how existential risks are framed in the civil society climate movement as well as what can be learned in this respect from the COVID-19 crisis. To better frame existential risks in the context of climate change, we propose to define them as those risks that threaten the existence of a subject, where this subject can be an individual person, a community, or nation state or humanity. The threat to their existence is defined by two levels of severity: conditions that threaten (1) survival and (2) basic human needs. A third level, well-being, is commonly not part of the space of existential risks. Our definition covers a range of different scales, which leads us into further defining six analytical dimensions: physical and social processes involved, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In conclusion, we suggest that a clearer and more precise definition and framing of existential risks of climate change such as we offer here facilitates scientific analysis as well societal and political discourse and action., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

Climate models, by accurately forecasting future weather events, can be a critical tool in developing countermeasures to reduce crop loss and decrease adverse effects on animal husbandry and fishing. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of various regional versions of the climate models, RCMs, and the commonly available weather datasets in Kenya in predicting extreme weather patterns in northern and western Kenya. We identified two models that may be used to predict flood risks and potential drought events in these regions. The combination of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and weather station data was the most effective in predicting future drought occurrences in Turkana and Wajir with accuracies ranging from 78 to 90%. In the case of flood forecasting, isolation forests models using weather station data had the best overall performance. The above models and datasets may form the basis of an early warning system for use in Kenya's agricultural sector., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the USA. Using models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to railroad, roads, and coastal properties under three infrastructure management response scenarios: No Adaptation; Reactive Adaptation, and Proactive Adaptation. Comparing damages under each of these potential responses provides strong support for facilitating effective adaptation in these three sectors. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and without adaptation, overall costs are projected to range in the $100s of billions annually by the end of this century. The first (reactive) tier of adaptation action, however, reduces costs by a factor of 10, and the second (proactive) tier reduces total costs across all three sectors to the low $10s of billions annually. For the rail and road sectors, estimated costs for Reactive and Proactive Adaptation scenarios capture a broader share of potential impacts, including selected indirect costs to rail and road users, and so are consistently about a factor of 2 higher than prior estimates. The results highlight the importance of considering climate risks in infrastructure planning and management.

How can the Chinese emissions trading scheme (ETS) be redesigned or improved to better address issues of fairness and equity, innovation and learning, and awareness and social acceptance? In order to meet its 2030 carbon emission reduction pledges, the Chinese government has announced plans for a fully implementable national carbon ETS after 2020. This scheme is set to become the world's most significant carbon trading market and it could cover half of all Chinese CO 2 emissions (as much as 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide). In this study, we qualitatively analyze the Chinese ETS through the lens of three interconnected themes-equity, innovation, and awareness-which are disaggregated into six specific dimensions. We then explore these themes and dimensions with a mixed methods and original research design involving a survey of 68 Chinese experts as well as 34 semi-structured research interviews with respondents from local governments, financial institutions, technology service companies, universities, industries, and civil society groups. We find that uneven economic and social growth could exacerbate any initial permits allocation scheme that could be a cornerstone for an ETS. Substantial technological and institutional uncertainties exist that could also hamper development and enforcement. Low or negative awareness among the public and private sector were identified as also being significant barriers for ETS implementation., Competing Interests: Competing InterestsThe authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© The Author(s) 2021.)

Beginning as an afterthought in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, adaptation as an agenda has come a long way since 1992. With no ambitious mitigation, recent years have witnessed an increasing frequency of extreme climate events, including cross-border or borderless climate risks. Accordingly, the Paris Agreement frames adaptation as a global goal and global responsibility. However, financing for adaptation continues to remain extremely poor, relative to the estimated needs, even though the regime has obligatory provisions for support by developed countries. Why is this so? Why should the majority of the countries, with an insignificant contribution to causing the problem, suffer from increasing climate impacts? How can adaptation finance be enhanced at scale? As a response to these queries, the paper substantiates three claims: (1) that poor funding can be attributed to the territorial framing under the regime that conceptualizes adaptation largely as a local or national public good and, hence, the inefficacy of market mechanisms, (2) that it makes conceptual and political sense to consider adaptation as a global public good, and (3) that such a reframing should make a difference in boosting adaptation finance. In a multi-polar world with different views on adaptation finance, multilateral agencies should lead in promoting the proposed framing., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestNo conflict of interest, (© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2021.)

In this case study, we examine a broad range of impacts on tourism and recreation based on projected changes to Indiana's climate. The direct impacts of climate change on Indiana include increases in the number of hot and extremely hot days each summer, fewer mild days, more rain, and less snow. Each direct impact will affect tourism and recreation. Additionally, a range of indirect impacts are anticipated, including climate-related changes in health issues, new infrastructure needs, changes in forests and other recreational areas, and shifting consumer attitudes toward travel and recreation. Although direct impacts are predictable, indirect impacts on the complex tourism system are harder to anticipate, and the tourism and recreation industry must build resilience to respond to future change. The paper concludes with recommendations for future study., Competing Interests: Ethics approvalNot applicable. Conflict of interest/Competing interests. The authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2021.)

In light of increasing pressure to deliver climate action targets and the growing role of citizens in raising the importance of the issue, deliberative democratic processes (e.g. citizen juries and citizen assemblies) on climate change are increasingly being used to provide a voice to citizens in climate change decision-making. Through a comparative case study of two processes that ran in the UK in 2019 (the Leeds Climate Change Citizens' Jury and the Oxford Citizens' Assembly on Climate Change), this paper investigates how far citizen assemblies and juries are increasing citizen engagement on climate change and creating more citizen-centred climate policymaking. Interviews were conducted with policymakers, councillors, professional facilitators and others involved in running these processes to assess motivations for conducting these, their structure and the impact and influence they had. The findings suggest the impact of these processes is not uniform: they have an indirect impact on policy making by creating momentum around climate action and supporting the introduction of pre-planned or pre-existing policies rather than a direct impact by truly being citizen-centred policy making processes or conducive to new climate policy. We conclude with reflections on how these processes give elected representatives a public mandate on climate change, that they help to identify more nuanced and in-depth public opinions in a fair and informed way, yet it can be challenging to embed citizen juries and assemblies in wider democratic processes., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2021.)

Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of "water miracles" in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the "Fall of the Roman Empire". Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it., Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03043-x., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2021, corrected publication 2021.)

Scenario planning (SP) has been increasingly utilized by water managers and planners in the 21st century as climate and other uncertainties have challenged traditional planning approaches. This paper discusses the potential for scenario planning processes in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern United States to build collective understanding of compound and cascading risks, and to identify possible solutions at multiple scales. Under the Colorado River Conversations Project, we convened a series of conferences and scenario planning workshops over the past 3 years to explore the potential to enhance the use of social and physical sciences in river management, and to broaden the community of people and entities engaged in discussions about managing the Colorado River. Working with a group of thirty water managers and other interested parties representing all 7 basin states, several Tribes, NGO's and Mexico, we used a participatory, mixed-methods approach to scenario planning that identified multiple drivers of change and developed eight science-based storylines from the intersection of these drivers. The development of the storylines and the subsequent conversations with participants about impacts and solutions resulted in a framework for understanding low probability-high consequence climate and other risks across the Colorado River Basin. We highlight three lessons that speak to the value and role of SP for fostering collaboration and creativity. These lessons include: (1) the importance of process in SP in fostering deliberate community building across sectors and geographies; (2) identifying challenges with engaging with uncertainty, complexity, and risk; and (3) determining what these findings mean for future SP in the Colorado River Basin and beyond., Competing Interests: Conflict of InterestThere are no conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature 2021.)

With high certainty, extreme weather events will intensify in their impact within the next 10 years due to climate change-induced increases in hazard probability of occurrence and simultaneous increases in socio-economic vulnerability. Data from previous mega-disasters show that losses from disruptions of critical services surpass the value of direct damages in the exposed areas because critical infrastructures [CI] are increasingly (inter-) dependent. Local events may have global impacts. Systemic criticality, which describes the relevance of a critical infrastructure due to its positioning within the system, needs to be addressed to reduce the likelihood of cascading effects. This paper presents novel approaches to operationalise and assess systemic criticality. Firstly, the paper introduces systemic cascade potential as a measurement of systemic criticality. It takes the relevance of a sector and the relevance of its interdependencies into account to generate a relative value of systemic importance for a CI sector. Secondly, an exemplary sectoral assessment of the road network allows reflecting the spatial manifestation of the first level of cascading effects. It analyses the impact of traffic interruptions on the accessibility of critical facilities to point out the systemically most critical segments of the municipal road network. To further operationalise the spatial dimension of criticality, a normative assertion determining the worthiness of protection of system components is required. A nationwide spatial flood protection plan incorporates this aspect in Germany for the first time. Its formal approval process was initiated in February 2020., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2021.)

The cranberry, a commodity of social, cultural, and economic importance to New England, is under threat due to climatic change in this region of the United States. Yet, previous research reveals that cranberry growers have mixed attitudes about the anthropogenic roots of climate change, with many being skeptical. Building on the researchers' analysis of the personal and ecological conditions that affect climate change attitudes among cranberry growers, this paper examines the effect that key actors in the growers' social networks have on those attitudes. Through statistical analysis of survey data and content analysis of two important cranberry newsletters, the paper finds that cranberry growers' perceived importance of two key cranberry growing institutions, the "sociopolitically focused" Cape Cod Cranberry Growers' Association and the "technically focused" University of Massachusetts Cranberry Station, as well as connections to other cranberry growers, is associated in nuanced ways with growers' climate change attitudes. Drawing on the sociological theory of "social capital," the paper examines how these social ties to key actors/institutions may result in greater threat perception or worry about climate change. It then considers how "green ties," if harnessed and supported by these important actors in the cranberry grower network, might significantly mitigate climate change in the future., (© Springer Nature B.V. 2020, corrected publication 2020.)

In recent decades, greater acknowledgement has been given to climate change as a cultural phenomenon. This paper takes a cultural lens to the topic of climate change, in which climate-relevant understandings are grounded in wider cultural, political and material contexts. We approach climate-relevant accounts at the level of the everyday, understood as a theoretically problematic and politically contested space This is in contrast to simply being the backdrop to mundane, repetitive actions contributing to environmental degradation and the site of mitigative actions. Taking discourse as a form of practice in which fragments of cultural knowledge are drawn on to construct our environmental problems, we investigate citizens' accounts of climate-relevant issues in three culturally diverse emerging economies: Brazil, South Africa and China. These settings are important because greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are predicted to significantly increase in these countries in the future. We conducted semi-structured interviews with a range of citizens in each country using a narrative approach to contextualise climate-relevant issues as part of people's lifestyle narratives. Participants overwhelmingly framed their accounts in the context of locally-salient issues, and few accounts explicitly referred to the phenomenon of climate change. Instead, elements of climate changes were conflated with other environmental issues and related to a wide range of cultural assumptions that influenced understandings and implied particular ways of responding to environmental problems. We conclude that climate change scholars should address locally relevant understandings and develop dialogues that can wider meanings that construct climate-relevant issues in vernacular ways at the local level., (© The Author(s) 2019.)

Heatwaves are divided between moderate, more common heatwaves and rare "high-mortality" heatwaves that have extremely large health effects per day, which we define as heatwaves with a 20% or higher increase in mortality risk. Better projections of the expected frequency of and exposure to these separate types of heatwaves could help communities optimize heat mitigation and response plans and gauge the potential benefits of limiting climate change. Whether a heatwave is high-mortality or moderate could depend on multiple heatwave characteristics, including intensity, length, and timing. We created heatwave classification models using a heatwave training dataset created using recent (1987-2005) health and weather data from 82 large US urban communities. We built twenty potential classification models and used Monte Carlo cross-validations to evaluate these models. We ultimately identified several models that can adequately classify high-mortality heatwaves. These models can be used to project future trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of a changing future (e.g., climate change, population change). Further, these models are novel in the way they allow exploration of different scenarios of adaptation to heat, as they include, as predictive variables, heatwave characteristics that are measured relative to a community's temperature distribution, allowing different adaptation scenarios to be explored by selecting alternative community temperature distributions. The three selected models have been placed on GitHub for use by other researchers, and we use them in a companion paper to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different climate, population, and adaptation scenarios.

Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system. Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.

Output-based allocation (OBA) is one of the main options discussed for addressing carbon leakage in emissions trading systems. This paper studies how different OBA designs affect incentives on mitigation and trade in the cement sector. To do so, we develop an analytical model of sector emissions as a function of technical parameters representing abatement levers. We propose a specific design called hybrid OBA, and show that unlike the alternatives, it provides incentives for firms to reduce the carbon intensity of production without offshoring production. We assess the feasibility of hybrid OBA through expert interviews and find that the main barriers identified, including technical and administrative complexities, are manageable. However, hybrid OBA represents a mid-term solution until more robust anti-leakage measures can be introduced, because of two key limitations of OBA in general - it does not provide incentives to reduce the consumption of cement or to accelerate the development of radical low-carbon technologies, both of which are necessary to deliver deep decarbonisation., (© The Author(s) 2017.)

There is limited knowledge on institutional factors constraining and enabling climate change adaptation in Arctic regions, or the overall readiness of governing bodies and communities to develop, implement, and promote adaptation. This paper examines the preparedness of different levels of government to adapt in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, drawing upon semi-structured interviews with government personnel and organizations involved in adaptation. In the Government of Nunavut, there have been notable developments around adaptation planning and examples of adaptation champions, but readiness for adaptation is challenged by a number of factors including the existence of pressing socio-economic problems, and institutional and governmental barriers. Federally, there is evidence of high-level leadership on adaptation, the creation of adaptation programs, and allocation of funds for adaptation, although the focus has been mostly on researching adaptation options as opposed to supporting actual actions or policy change. The 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and increasing emphasis on climate change federally and in the Government of Nunavut, offer opportunities for advancing adaptation, but concrete steps are needed to ensure readiness is enhanced., (© The Author(s) 2017.)

How large a risk is society prepared to run with the climate system? This is a question of the utmost difficulty and it admits a variety of perspectives. In this paper we draw an analogy with the management and regulation of insurance companies, which are required to hold capital against the risk of their own financial ruin. Accordingly, we suggest that discussions about how much to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases could be framed in terms of managing the risk of 'climate ruin'. This shifts the focus towards deciding upon an acceptable risk of the very worst-case scenario, and away from how "avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" has come to be framed politically. Moreover it leads to the conclusion that, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions today and in the future, the world is running a higher risk with the climate system than insurance companies run with their own solvency., (© The Author(s) 2016.)

A lengthening of the fire season, coupled with higher temperatures, increases the probability of fires throughout much of western North America. Although regional variation in the frequency of fires is well established, attempts to predict the occurrence of fire at a spatial resolution <10 km 2 have generally been unsuccessful. We hypothesized that predictions of fires might be improved if depletion of soil water reserves were coupled more directly to maximum leaf area index (LAI max ) and stomatal behavior. In an earlier publication, we used LAI max and a process-based forest growth model to derive and map the maximum available soil water storage capacity (ASW max ) of forested lands in western North America at l km resolution. To map large fires, we used data products acquired from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) over the period 2000-2009. To establish general relationships that incorporate the major biophysical processes that control evaporation and transpiration as well as the flammability of live and dead trees, we constructed a decision tree model (DT). We analyzed seasonal variation in the relative availability of soil water ( fASW ) for the years 2001, 2004, and 2007, representing respectively, low, moderate, and high rankings of areas burned. For these selected years, the DT predicted where forest fires >1 km occurred and did not occur at ~100,000 randomly located pixels with an average accuracy of 69 %. Extended over the decade, the area predicted burnt varied by as much as 50 %. The DT identified four seasonal combinations, most of which included exhaustion of ASW during the summer as critical; two combinations involving antecedent conditions the previous spring or fall accounted for 86 % of the predicted fires. The approach introduced in this paper can help identify forested areas where management efforts to reduce fire hazards might prove most beneficial.

Drinking water in much of Asia, particularly in coastal and rural settings, is provided by a variety of sources, which are widely distributed and frequently managed at an individual or local community level. Coastal and near-inland drinking water sources in South and South East (SSE) Asia are vulnerable to contamination by seawater, most dramatically from tropical cyclone induced storm surges. This paper assesses spatial vulnerabilities to salinisation of drinking water sources due to meteorological variability and climate change along the (ca. 6000 km) coastline of SSE Asia. The risks of increasing climatic stresses are first considered, and then maps of relative vulnerability along the entire coastline are developed, using data from global scale land surface models, along with an overall vulnerability index. The results show that surface and near-surface drinking water in the coastal areas of the mega-deltas in Vietnam and Bangladesh-India are most vulnerable, putting more than 25 million people at risk of drinking 'saline' water. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem, with adverse consequences for health, such as prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. There is a need for identifying locations that are most at risk of salinisation in order for policy makers and local officials to implement strategies for reducing these health impacts. To counter the risks associated with these vulnerabilities, possible adaptation measures are also outlined. We conclude that detailed and fine scale vulnerability assessments may become crucial for planning targeted adaptation programmes along these coasts.

Deltas around the globe are facing a multitude of intensifying environmental change and development-linked pressures. One key concern is the reduction in the quantity of suspended sediment reaching and building floodplains. Sediment deposition provides multiple services to deltaic social-ecological systems, in particular, countering the subsidence of the delta-body, and providing plentiful nutrients. Experiencing particularly rapid change is the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In An Giang Province an increasing number of high dyke rings, which exclude the flood and facilitate triple rice-cropping, simultaneously prevent much of the sediment load from reaching the floodplain. This paper explores the trade-offs implicit in the decision to shift from (i) doublecropping (higher sediment deposition) to (ii) triple cropping (lower sediment deposition) by asking: what is the impact of the shift on VMD farmers? Is it sustainable? And what is the significance of the associated sediment exclusion? A novel survey of An Giang rice farmers was conducted, investigating key agricultural practices, and uniquely, the farmers' estimates of annual sediment deposition depth. The survey elicits some key changes under the adapted system (ii), particularly, unsustainable trajectories in the yield to fertiliser ratio which penalise land-poor farmers. Furthermore, the value (to farmers) of the sediment contribution to agricultural fertilisation which is lost due to triple-cropping is estimated at USD 15 (±5) million annually. We argue that our growing understanding of the importance of sediment in the deltaic social-ecological system may be revealing an emergent risk; arising from conflicting long and short-term adaptation and agricultural development objectives., (© The Author(s) 2016.)

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) provide information about future climate variability that has the potential to benefit organisations and their decision-making. However, the production and availability of SCF does not guarantee its use in decision-making per se as a range of factors and conditions influence its use in different decision-making contexts. The aim of this paper is to identify the barriers and enablers to the use of SCF across organisations in Europe. To achieve that, we conducted 75 in-depth interviews with organisations working across eight sectors (including energy, transport, water and agriculture) and 16 countries. The majority of the organisations interviewed do not currently use SCF. This was due to the low reliability and skill of SCF in Europe but also with other non-technical aspects such as the lack of relevance and awareness of SCF in the organisations. Conversely, the main enabler to the use of SCF was the interactions with the providers of SCF. In addition, the level of organisational resources, capacity and expertise were also significant enablers to the use of SCF in organisations. This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the use of SCF in Europe. Such insights provide not only an overview of the existing barriers and enablers to the use of SCF in Europe and how these can be overcome and negotiated to enhance the usability of SCF, but can also help inform the broader and emerging context of climate services development in Europe., (© The Author(s) 2016.)

"Societal teleconnections" - analogous to physical teleconnections such as El Niño - are human-created linkages that link activities, trends, and disruptions across large distances, such that locations spatially separated from the locus of an event can experience a variety of impacts from it nevertheless. In the climate change context, such societal teleconnections add a layer of risk that is currently neither fully appreciated in most impacts or vulnerability assessments nor in on-the-ground adaptation planning. Conceptually, societal teleconnections arise from the interactions among actors , and the institutions that guide their actions, affecting the movement of various substances through different structures and processes . Empirically, they arise out of societal interactions, including globalization, to create, amplify, and sometimes attenuate climate change vulnerabilities and impacts in regions far from those where a climatic extreme or change occurs. This paper introduces a simple but systematic way to conceptualize societal teleconnections and then highlights and explores eight unique but interrelated types of societal teleconnections with selected examples: (1) trade and economic exchange, (2) insurance and reinsurance, (3) energy systems, (4) food systems; (5) human health, (6) population migration, (7) communication, and (8) strategic alliances and military interactions. The paper encourages further research to better understand the causal chains behind socially teleconnected impacts, and to identify ways to routinely integrate their consideration in impacts/vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to limit the risk of costly impacts., (© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015.)

This paper studies some impacts of climate change on electricity markets, focusing on three climate effects. First, demand for electricity is affected because of changes in the temperature. Second, changes in precipitation and temperature have impact on supply of hydro electric production through a shift in the inflow of water. Third, plant efficiency for thermal generation will decrease because the temperature of water used to cool equipment increases. To find the magnitude of these partial effects, as well as the overall effects, on Western European energy markets, we use the multi-market equilibrium model LIBEMOD. We find that each of the three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase of only 1%. The partial effects on total electricity supply are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%. The greatest effects are found for Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries, annual production of electricity increases by 8%, reflecting more inflow of water, while net exports doubles. In addition, because of lower inflow in summer and higher in winter, the reservoir filling needed to transfer water from summer to winter is drastically reduced in the Nordic countries.

"Population projections methods of the U.S. Census Bureau draw upon several different traditions of forecasting: demographic accounting, judgmental, time series, deterministic, and explanatory. This paper reviews each of the forecasting traditions in population projections, describes the U.S. Census Bureau's current methods for national and state population projections, and proposes new hybrid approaches such as demographic-time series methods for national fertility projections and economic-demographic methods for state migration projections. Throughout the article, possible parallels with forecasting in other disciplines are noted.", (excerpt)