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Surge capacity-the ability to acquire additional workers and resources during unexpected increases in service demand-is often perceived as a luxury. However, the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated an urgent expansion of surge capacity within health systems globally. Health systems in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka managed to scale up their capacities despite severely limited budgets. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, integrating qualitative interviews with quantitative data analysis, to propose a comprehensive framework for understanding Human Resources for Health (HRH) surge capacity from 2018 to 2021, termed ARRAS: Anticipate, Recruit, Retain, Adapt, Sustain. We present national-level data to demonstrate how each country was able to maintain their per capita health care workforce during the crisis. Interviews with key informants from each country reinforce the ARRAS framework. Quantitative data revealed ongoing increases in doctors and nurses pre- and post-pandemic, but no country could rapidly expand its health workforce during the crisis. Qualitative findings highlighted critical strategies such as pre-crisis planning, financial incentives, telemedicine, and re-skilling the workforce. Despite adaptive measures, challenges included inadequate funding, poor data systems, and coordination issues. This study underscores the necessity for robust, long-term strategies to enhance surge capacity and better prepare health systems for future crises.

Background: Accumulating evidence has suggested the pathogenic roles of chronic inflammation and neutrophils in diabetic kidney disease (DKD). This study investigated the relationship between neutrophils, all-cause, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with DKD., Methods: We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) from 2005 to 2020 to investigate the relationship between circulating neutrophils counts, kidney function indices, all-cause, and CVD mortality in adult T2DM patients with DKD. Clinical predictive models and risk scores for long-term mortality were constructed., Results: 44,332 patients [8034 with T2DM and 36,323 without T2DM] were included. Two thousand two hundred twenty patients had DKD, and 775 died (31.5% related to CVD) during a follow-up of 6.18 (range: 5.94-6.42) years. Higher neutrophil counts (Quartile 4, Q4) were associated with increased all-cause and CVD mortality [HR 1.73 (95% CI 1.34-2.25) and 1.81 (95% CI 1.14-2.89), respectively, p < 0.0001 and 0.01]. Neutrophil counts in Q4 showed a positive correlation with urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) but a negative association with eGFR ( p < 0.01 for all). Clinical predictive models incorporating neutrophil counts showed satisfactory performance in forecasting 5-year and 10-year CVD mortality-free survival (ROC AUC 0.824 and 0.842, respectively), and the nomogram-predicted survival demonstrated good concordance with observed survival., Conclusions: Higher levels of circulating neutrophil counts show a significant correlation with renal abnormalities and higher all-cause and CVD mortality in T2DM patients with DKD. The novel clinical predictive models and risk scores incorporating neutrophil counts may facilitate stratification and, hence, risk factor management in DKD patients.

The financing of public health systems and services relies on a complex and fragmented web of partners and funding priorities. Both underfunding and "dys-funding" contribute to preventable mortality, increases in disease frequency and severity, and hindered social and economic growth. These issues were both illuminated and magnified by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated responses. Further complicating issues is the difficulty in constructing adequate estimates of current public health resources and necessary resources. Each of these challenges inhibits the delivery of necessary services, leads to inequitable access and resourcing, contributes to resource volatility, and presents other deleterious outcomes. However, actions may be taken to defragment complex funding paradigms toward more flexible spending, to modernize and standardize data systems, and to assure equitable and sustainable public health investments.

Background: Most studies on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on depression burden focused on the earlier pandemic phase specific to lockdowns, but the longer-term impact of the pandemic is less well-studied. In this population-based cohort study, we examined the short-term and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on depression incidence and healthcare service use among patients with depression., Methods: Using the territory-wide electronic medical records in Hong Kong, we identified all patients aged ≥ 10 years with new diagnoses of depression from 2014 to 2022. We performed an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis to examine changes in incidence of medically attended depression before and during the pandemic. We then divided all patients into nine cohorts based on year of depression incidence and studied their initial and ongoing service use patterns until the end of 2022. We applied generalized linear modeling to compare the rates of healthcare service use in the year of diagnosis between patients newly diagnosed before and during the pandemic. A separate ITS analysis explored the pandemic impact on the ongoing service use among prevalent patients with depression., Results: We found an immediate increase in depression incidence (RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10-1.33, p < 0.001) in the population after the pandemic began with non-significant slope change, suggesting a sustained effect until the end of 2022. Subgroup analysis showed that the increases in incidence were significant among adults and the older population, but not adolescents. Depression patients newly diagnosed during the pandemic used 11% fewer resources than the pre-pandemic patients in the first diagnosis year. Pre-existing depression patients also had an immediate decrease of 16% in overall all-cause service use since the pandemic, with a positive slope change indicating a gradual rebound over a 3-year period., Conclusions: During the pandemic, service provision for depression was suboptimal in the face of increased demand generated by the increasing depression incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate the need to improve mental health resource planning preparedness for future public health crises., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: This paper presents the results of a systematic review to identify practical strategies to create the institutions, skills, values, and norms that will improve health systems resilience., Methods: A PRISMA 2020 compliant systematic review identified peer-reviewed and gray literature on practical strategies to make health systems more resilient. Investigators screened 970 papers to identify 65 English language papers published since 2015., Results: Practical strategies focus efforts on system changes to improve a health system's resilience components of collective knowing, collective thinking, and collaborative doing. The most helpful studies identified potential lead organizations to serve as the stewards of resilience improvement, and these were commonly in national and local departments of public health. Papers on practical strategies suggested possible measurement tools to benchmark resilience components in efforts to focus on performance improvement and ways to sustain their use. Essential Public Health Function (EPHF) measurement and improvement tools are well-aligned to the resilience agenda. The field of health systems resilience lacks empirical trials linking resilience improvement interventions to outcomes., Conclusions: The rigorous assessment of practical strategies to improve resilience based on cycles of measurement should be a high priority., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Based on real-world data, we developed a 10-year prediction model to estimate the burden among patients with depression from the public healthcare system payer's perspective to inform early resource planning in Hong Kong., Methods: We developed a Markov cohort model with yearly cycles specifically capturing the pathway of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and comorbidity development along the disease course. Projected from 2023 to 2032, primary outcomes included costs of all-cause and psychiatric care, and secondary outcomes were all-cause deaths, years of life lived, and quality-adjusted life-years. Using the territory-wide electronic medical records, we identified 25,190 patients aged ≥10 years with newly diagnosed depression from 2014 to 2016 with follow-up until 2020 to observe the real-world time-to-event pattern, based on which costs and time-varying transition inputs were derived using negative binomial modelling and parametric survival analysis. We applied the model as both closed cohort, which studied a fixed cohort of incident patients in 2023, and open cohort, which introduced incident patients by year from 2014 to 2032. Utilities and annual new patients were from published sources., Findings: With 9217 new patients in 2023, our closed cohort model projected the 10-year cumulative costs of all-cause and psychiatric care to reach US$309.0 million and US$58.3 million, respectively, with 899 deaths (case fatality rate: 9.8%) by 2032. In our open cohort model, 55,849-57,896 active prevalent cases would cost more than US$322.3 million and US$60.7 million, respectively, with more than 943 deaths annually from 2023 to 2032. Fewer than 20% of cases would live with TRD or comorbidities but contribute 31-54% of the costs. The greatest collective burden would occur in women aged above 40, but men aged above 65 and below 25 with medical history would have the highest costs per patient-year. The key cost drivers were relevant to the early disease stages., Interpretation: A limited proportion of patients would develop TRD and comorbidities but contribute to a high proportion of costs, which necessitates appropriate attention and resource allocation. Our projection also demonstrates the application of real-world data to model long-term costs and mortality, which aid policymakers anticipate foreseeable burden and undertake budget planning to prepare for the care need in alternative scenarios., Funding: Research Impact Fund from the University Grants Committee, Research Grants Council with matching fund from the Hong Kong Association of Pharmaceutical Industry (R7007-22)., Competing Interests: X Li received research grants from Hong Kong Health and Medical Research Fund (HMRF, HMRF Fellowship Scheme, HKSAR), Research Grants Council Early Career Scheme (RGC/ECS, HKSAR), Janssen and Pfizer; internal funding from the University of Hong Kong; consultancy fees from Merck Sharp & Dohme and Pfizer; she is also a non-executive director of Advanced Data Analytics for Medical Science (ADAMS) Limited Hong Kong, all are unrelated to this work; H Luo received research grants Research Grants Council Early Career Scheme (RGC/ECS, HKSAR) unrelated to this work. EWY Chan reports grants from Research Grants Council, Research Fund Secretariat of the Food and Health Bureau, National Natural Science Fund of China, Wellcome Trust, Bayer, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Janssen, Takeda, Narcotics Division of the Security Bureau of Hong Kong, honorarium from Hospital Authority, outside the submitted work; ICK Wong received research funding outside the submitted work from Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer, Janssen, Bayer, GSK, Novartis, Takeda, the Hong Kong RGC, and the Hong Kong Health and Medical Research Fund, National Institute for Health Research in England, European Commission, National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia, The European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research technological development, and has also received consulting fees from IQVIA, the WHO and expert testimony for Appeal Court in Hong Kong over the past three years. He is also a non-executive director of Jacobson Medical Hong Kong, and founder and director of Therakind Limited (United Kingdom), Advanced Data Analytics for Medical Science (ADAMS) Limited (Hong Kong), Asia Medicine Regulatory Affairs (AMERA) Services Limited and OCUS Innovation Limited (Hong Kong, Ireland and United Kingdom)., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Background: Despite the early demonstrated safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in children, uptake was slow throughout the pandemic and remains low globally. Understanding vaccine refusal could provide insights to improving vaccine uptake in future pandemics., Methods: In a population-wide registry of all COVID-19 paediatric vaccination appointments, we used interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the impact of public policies. In a population-based cohort of adults, we used population attributable fractions to assess the individual and joint contributions of potential determinants to paediatric COVID-19 vaccination, and used mediation analysis to identify modifiable mediators between political views and paediatric vaccination., Findings: School vaccination requirements were associated with an increase in vaccination appointments by 278.7% (95% CI 85.3-673.9) in adolescents aged 12-17 and 112.8% (27.6-255.0) in children aged 5-11. Government-mandated vaccine pass, required for entry into restaurants, shopping malls and supermarkets, was associated with increased vaccination appointments by 108.7% (26.6-244.0) in adolescents. The following four determinants may explain 82.5% (63.5-100.0) of the reasons why children were unvaccinated: familial political views, vaccine hesitancy for children, mistrust in doctors and academics, and vaccine misconceptions. The influence of political views may be mitigated since 95.9% (76.4-100.0) of its association with vaccine reluctance for adolescents was mediated by modifiable factors such as mistrust in health authorities and low vaccine confidence., Interpretation: School vaccination requirements and vaccine passes were associated with increased vaccine uptake. Clinicians should recognise that factors beyond health, such as political views, can influence paediatric vaccine uptake to a significant extent. Nonetheless, such influences could be mitigated by targeted interventions and public policies., Funding: Hong Kong Jockey Club Charities Trust, Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee, and Health Bureau., Competing Interests: Leung was an official advisor to the Hong Kong SAR Government on COVID-19. Cowling consults for AstraZeneca, Fosun Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline, Haleon, Moderna, Novavax, Pfizer, Roche, and Sanofi Pasteur. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic substantially disrupted healthcare utilization patterns, globally. South Korea had been praised widely in its efforts to contain the spread of the pandemic, which may have contributed to a significantly smaller reduction in healthcare utilization compared to neighboring countries. However, it remains unknown how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted utilization patterns across population sub-groups, particularly vulnerable patient groups in South Korea. This paper quantifies the changes in healthcare utilization attributable to COVID-19 and the COVID-19 vaccination by sub-groups., Methods: An interrupted time series analysis was conducted to examine the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilization in South Korea from January 2016 to December 2022 using aggregated patient-level data from the national health insurance system that accounts for 99% of all healthcare services in South Korea. We applied negative binomial models adjusting for seasonality and serial correlation. Falsification tests were conducted to test the validity of breakpoints. Stratified analyses by type of healthcare services, age, sex, income level, health facility type, and avoidable/non-avoidable hospitalizations was performed, and we assessed differences in utilization trends between population groups across three phases of the pandemic., Findings: In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a reduction in monthly volume of outpatient utilization by 15.7% [95% CI 13.3%-18.1%, p < 0.001] and inpatient utilization by 11.6% [10.1%-13.0%, p < 0.001]. Most utilization recovered and rebounded to pre-COVID-19 levels as of December 2022 although variations existed. We observed heterogeneity in the magnitude of relative changes in utilization across types of services, varying from a 42.7% [36.8%-48.0%, p < 0.001] decrease for pediatrics, a 23.4% [20.1%-26.5%%, p < 0.001] reduction in utilization of public health centers, and a 24.2% [21.2%-27.0%, p < 0.001] reduction in avoidable hospitalizations compared to the pre-pandemic period. Contrary to global trends, health utilization among the elderly population (65 and older) in South Korea saw only marginal reductions compared to other age groups. Similarly, Medicaid patients and lower income groups experienced a smaller reduction compared to higher income groups., Interpretation: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare utilization in South Korea was less pronounced compared to the global average. Utilization of vulnerable populations, including adults over 65 years old and lowest-income groups reduced less than other type of patients., Funding: No funding., Competing Interests: The authors whose names are listed immediately above certify that they have NO affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest (such as honoraria; educational grants; participation in speakers’ bureaus; membership, employment, consultancies, stock ownership, or other equity interest; and expert testimony or patent-licensing arrangements), or non-financial interest (such as personal or professional relationships, affiliations, knowledge or beliefs) in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript., (© 2023 The Author(s).)

Background: Vietnam's aging population is growing rapidly, but its health workforce's capacity to provide quality geriatric care is not clearly understood. We aimed to provide a cross-culturally relevant and validated instrument to assess evidence-based geriatric knowledge among healthcare providers in Vietnam., Methods: We translated the Knowledge about Older Patients Quiz from English to Vietnamese using cross-cultural adaptation methods. We validated the translated version by evaluating its relevance to the Vietnamese context, as well as its semantic and technical equivalence. We fielded the translated instrument on a pilot sample of healthcare providers in Hanoi, Vietnam., Results: The Vietnamese Knowledge about Older Patients Quiz (VKOP-Q) had excellent content validity (S-CVI/Ave) and translation equivalence (TS-CVI/Ave) of 0.94 and 0.92, respectively. The average VKOP-Q score was 54.2% (95% CI: 52.5-55.8) and ranged from 33.3 to 73.3% among 110 healthcare providers in the pilot study. Healthcare providers in the pilot study had low scores on questions related to the physiopathology of geriatric conditions, communication techniques with sensory impaired older adults, and differentiating age related changes from abnormal changes or symptoms., Conclusions: The VKOP-Q is a validated instrument to assess geriatric knowledge among healthcare providers in Vietnam. The level of geriatric knowledge among healthcare providers in the pilot study was unsatisfactory, which supports the need for further assessment of geriatric knowledge among a nationally representative sample of healthcare providers., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: People are living longer, and the majority of aging people reside in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, inappropriate healthcare contributes to health disparities between populations of aging people and leads to care dependency and social isolation. Tools to assess and evaluate the effectiveness of quality improvement interventions for geriatric care in LMICs are limited. The aim of this study was to provide a validated and culturally relevant instrument to assess patient-centered care in Vietnam, where the population of aging people is growing rapidly., Methods: The Patient-Centered Care (PCC) measure was translated from English to Vietnamese using forward-backward method. The PCC measure grouped activities into sub-domains of holistic, collaborative, and responsive care. A bilingual expert panel rated the cross-cultural relevance and translation equivalence of the instrument. We calculated Content Validity Indexing (CVI) scores at both the item (I-CVI) and scale (S-CVI/Ave) levels to evaluate the relevance of the Vietnamese PCC (VPCC) measure to geriatric care in the Vietnamese context. We piloted the translated instrument VPCC measure with 112 healthcare providers in Hanoi, Vietnam. Multiple logistic regression models were specified to test the a priori null hypothesis that geriatric knowledge is not different among healthcare providers with perception of high implementation compared with low implementation of PCC measures., Results: On the item level, all 20 questions had excellent validity ratings. The VPCC had excellent content validity (S-CVI/Ave of 0.96) and translation equivalence (TS- CVI/Ave of 0.94). In the pilot study, the highest-rated PCC elements were the holistic provision of information and collaborative care, while the lowest-rated elements were the holistic attendance to patients' needs and responsive care. Attention to the psychosocial needs of aging people and poor coordination of care within and beyond the health system were the lowest-rated PCC activities. After controlling for healthcare provider characteristics, the odds of the perception of high implementation of collaborative care were increased by 21% for each increase in geriatric knowledge score. We fail to reject the null hypotheses for holistic care, responsive care and PCC., Conclusion: The VPCC is a validated instrument that may be utilized to systemically evaluate the practice of patient-centered geriatric care in Vietnam., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

COVID-19 demanded urgent responses by all countries, with wide variations in the scope and sustainability of those responses. Scholarship on resilience has increasingly emphasized relational considerations such as norms and power and how they influence health systems' responses to evolving challenges. In this study, we explored what influenced countries' national pandemic responses over time considering a country's capacity to test for COVID-19. To identify countries for inclusion, we used daily reports of COVID-19 cases and testing from 184 countries between 21st January 2020 and 31st December 2020. Countries reporting test data consistently and for at least 105 days were included, yielding a sample of 52 countries. We then sampled five countries representing different geographies, income levels and governance structures (Belgium, Ethiopia, India, Israel and Peru) and conducted semi-structured key informant interviews with stakeholders working in, or deeply familiar with, national responses. Across these five countries, we found that existing health systems capacities and political leadership determined how responses unfolded, while emergency plans or pandemic preparedness documents were not fit-for-purpose. While all five countries were successful at reducing COVID-19 infections at a specific moment in the pandemic, political economy factors complicated the ability to sustain responses, with all countries experiencing larger waves of the virus in 2021 or 2022. Our findings emphasize the continued importance of foundational public health and health systems capacities, bolstered by clear leadership and multisectoral coordination functions. Even in settings with high-level political leadership and a strong multisectoral response, informants wished that they-and their country's health system-were more prepared to address the pandemic and maintain an effective response over time. Our findings challenge emergency preparedness as the dominant frame in pandemic preparedness and call for a continued emphasis on health systems strengthening to respond to future health shocks and a pandemic moving to endemic status., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: In 2013, Dubai implemented the Insurance System of Advancing Health in Dubai (ISAHD) law which required mandatory health insurance for all residents of Dubai effective in 2016. This study compares the effect of the ISAHD on the utilization and out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures for low and high socio-economic status sub-groups., Methods: The study used the 2014 and 2018 Dubai Household Health Survey (DHHS) a representative survey of Dubai stratified as: 1) Nationals; 2) Non-nationals in households; 3) Non-nationals in collective housing; and 4) Non-nationals in labor camps. The probability that each household would have expenditures was calculated, then multiplied by a weighted estimate of the average total OOP expenditure., Results: Overall Dubai's health spending rose from 12.8 billion AED (3.4 billion US $) in 2014 to 16.8 billion AED (4.6 billion US $) in 2017. Concurrently, the OOP share in total health spending in Dubai fell from 25% in 2014 to 13% in 2017. From 2014 to 2018, there were increases in the utilization of inpatient, outpatient and discretionary services for all groups except non-nationals living in camps. In 2018, nationals spent a total of 1064.65 AED, non-nationals in households spent 675.01 AED, collective households spent 82.35 AED, and labor camps spent 100.32 AED out-of-pocket per capita for healthcare expenditures. During and after the implementation of ISAHD, there was a substantial growth in the OOP expenditure per capita for nationals and non-nationals in households due to increased utilization. OOP spending did not rise for the lower-income non-National households., Conclusion: Dubai has been successful in reducing the household share of OOP expenditures by shifting the financial burden to government and employers. Emiratis and expatriate households increased their health service utilization after ISAHD but blue-collar workers did not. Remaining non-financial barriers to care for Dubai's blue-collar workers must be identified and addressed., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Community characteristics are a significant social determinant of child health. Little is known about the effects of social heterogeneity as a specific factor that might impact health. This paper aims to fill the void in research on the health effects of India's district-level religious heterogeneity., Methods: Weighted state fixed effects multivariate logistic regression was applied to India's Third District Level Household Survey (2007-2008). The dependent variables were death of a child under five and indicators of healthcare utilization. The key independent variables were the proportions in the district who were Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Buddhist, and Sikh. The analysis controlled for generic community diversity, household religion, and socioeconomic status. Separate, sub-group analysis focused on Muslims only, Christians only, and Buddhists only., Results: Multivariate fixed effects models show that a 1% point increase in the proportion of Muslim, Christian, or Buddhist households in a community is associated with respective odds ratios of child death of 1.008, 1.009, and 1.012 of experiencing the death of a child. The impact of a household's own religious affiliation is statistically insignificant in these models. Higher proportions of Muslims and Christians in a community lower the odds of BCG (a vaccine for childhood tuberculosis) receipt and child healthcare-seeking., Conclusions: Households residing where there are higher levels of religious minorities in India experience worse child survival. These effects are not mediated by the household's own religious affiliation. There is evidence that health system performance and quality is systematically worse in communities with higher proportions of religious minorities. Our study can help policymakers identify communities where children may be at higher risk based on community heterogeneity and the potential for insufficient collective action. Policymakers might consider flagging these communities for special attention, because social heterogeneity is likely to be of long duration., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Objective: To evaluate equity in the allocation and distribution of vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to countries and territories participating in the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility., Methods: We used publicly available data on the numbers of COVAX vaccine doses allocated and distributed to 88 countries and territories qualifying for COVAX-sponsored vaccine doses and 60 countries self-financing their vaccine doses facilitated by COVAX. We conducted a benefit-incident analysis to examine the allocation and distribution of vaccines based on countries' gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We plotted cumulative country-level per capita allocation and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines from COVAX against the ranked per capita GDP of the countries and territories to generate a measure of the equity of COVAX benefits., Findings: By 23 January 2022 the COVAX Facility had allocated a total of 1 678 517 990 COVID-19 vaccine doses, of which 1 028 291 430 (61%) doses were distributed to 148 countries and territories. Taking account of COVAX subsidies, we found that countries and territories with low per capita GDP benefited more than higher-income countries in the numbers of vaccines. The benefits increased further when the analysis was adjusted by population age group (aged 65 years and older)., Conclusion: The COVAX Facility is helping to balance global inequities in the allocation and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. However, COVAX alone has not been enough to reverse the inequality of total COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Future studies could examine the equity of all COVID-19 vaccine allocation and distribution beyond the COVAX-facilitated vaccines., ((c) 2022 The authors; licensee World Health Organization.)

Context: Wide variation in state and county health spending prior to 2020 enables tests of whether historically better state and locally funded counties achieved faster control over COVID-19 in the first 6 months of the pandemic in the Unites States prior to federal supplemental funding., Objective: We used time-to-event and generalized linear models to examine the association between pre-pandemic state-level public health spending, county-level non-hospital health spending, and effective COVID-19 control at the county level. We include 2,775 counties that reported 10 or more COVID-19 cases between January 22, 2020, and July 19, 2020, in the analysis., Main Outcome Measure: Control of COVID-19 was defined by: (i) elapsed time in days between the 10th case and the day of peak incidence of a county's local epidemic, among counties that bent their case curves, and (ii) doubling time of case counts within the first 30 days of a county's local epidemic for all counties that reported 10 or more cases., Results: Only 26% of eligible counties had bent their case curve in the first 6 months of the pandemic. Government health spending at the county level was not associated with better COVID-19 control in terms of either a shorter time to peak in survival analyses, or doubling time in generalized linear models. State-level public spending on hazard preparation and response was associated with a shorter time to peak among counties that were able to bend their case incidence curves., Conclusions: Increasing resource availability for public health in local jurisdictions without thoughtful attention to bolstering the foundational capabilities inside health departments is unlikely to be sufficient to prepare the country for future outbreaks or other public health emergencies., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest., (© 2022 The Authors.)

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The purpose of this study is to examine factors affecting the intent to vaccinate during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and to leverage the results to inform public health policy decisions aimed at increasing vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the National 2009 H1N1 Flu Survey data and state-level administrative data, we employ logistic regression and mediation models to estimate the association between vaccine uptake and state level public health spending, political ideology, and H1N1 case and death rates as well as a set of individual and household characteristics. We find that higher public health spending can significantly increase the intent to vaccinate, mainly through raising concerns about the pandemic and promoting vaccine relevant doctor patient interactions. We conclude that physicians, especially primary care physicians, should play more important roles in the ongoing vaccination efforts against the COVID-19 virus., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Drowning is the leading cause of death among children 12-59 months old in rural Bangladesh. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a large-scale crèche (daycare) intervention in preventing child drowning., Methods: The cost of the crèches intervention was evaluated using an ingredients-based approach and monthly expenditure data collected prospectively throughout the study period from two agencies implementing the intervention in different study areas. The estimate of the effectiveness of the crèches intervention was based on a previous study. The study evaluated the cost-effectiveness from both a program and societal perspective., Results: From the program perspective the annual operating cost of a crèche was $416.35 (95% CI: $221 to $576), the annual cost per child was $16 (95% CI: $8 to $23), and the incremental-cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per life saved with the crèches was $17,008 (95% CI: $8817 to $24,619). From the societal perspective (including parents time valued) the ICER per life saved was - $166,833 (95% CI: - $197,421 to - $141,341)-meaning crèches generated net economic benefits per child enrolled. Based on the ICER per disability-adjusted-life years averted from the societal perspective (excluding parents time), $1978, the crèche intervention was cost-effective even when the societal economic benefits were ignored., Conclusions: Based on the evidence, the crèche intervention has great potential for generating net societal economic gains by reducing child drowning at a program cost that is reasonable., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Will counties that reallocate money from law enforcement to social services improve subsequent markers of population wellbeing? In this study, we measure the association between county government spending across multiple sectors and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) in the U.S. using data from the U.S. Census Bureau. We constructed a Structural Equation Model to determine whether social expenditure, building infrastructure, and spending on law and order were positively or negatively associated with LEB three-years after initial spending. The analysis compared data between 2002-05 and 2007-10 and was stratified for urban and rural counties. In rural counties, a one-standard-deviation increase in social spending increased subsequent LEB by 0.58 (SE 0.16) and 0.36 (SE 0.16) years in 2005 and 2010, respectively. In urban counties, a one-standard-deviation increase in building infrastructure spending increased subsequent LEB by 1.14 (SE 0.51) and 1.05 (SE 0.49) years in 2005 and 2010, respectively. In 2002, a one-standard-deviation increase in law and order spending significantly decreased subsequent life expectancy, 2.2 (SE 1.27) and 0.46 (SE 0.13) years in urban and rural counties, respectively. Similarly, investments in building infrastructure for urban counties and social services for rural counties were associated with subsequently higher life expectancy three years later after initial investments., (© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

For over 150 years the local health departments of England have been critical in controlling 19 th and 20 th century infectious epidemics. However, recent administrative changes have hollowed out their flexibility to serve communities. We use administrative data on past budgetary allocations per capita to public health departments at upper tier local areas (UTLAs) of England to examine whether public health funding levels were correlated with more rapid control of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic between March and July of 2020. The dependent variable was the number of days between a UTLA's 10th case of COVID-19 and the day when new cases per 100,000 peaked and began to decline. Our models controlled for regional socio-economic factors. We found no correlation between local public health expenditure and the speed of control of COVID-19. However, overall public expenditure allocated to improve local areas helped reduce time to reach peak. Contrary to expectation, more dense areas such as London experienced shorter duration. Higher income areas had more rapid success in accelerating the time of the first peak in the first wave of their local COVID-19 incidence. We contribute to understanding the impact of how public expenditure and socio-economic factors affect an epidemic., (© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Standard theories of health provider behavior suggest that providers are motivated by both profit and an altruistic interest in patient health benefit. Detailed empirical data are seldom available to measure relative preferences between profit and patient health outcomes. Furthermore, it is difficult to empirically assess how these relative preferences affect quality of care. This study uses a unique dataset from rural Myanmar to assess heterogeneous preferences toward treatment efficacy relative to provider profit and the impact of these preferences on the quality of provider diagnosis and treatment. Using conjoint survey data from 187 providers, we estimated the marginal utilities of higher treatment efficacy and of higher profit, and the marginal rate of substitution between these outcomes. We also measured the quality of diagnosis and treatment for malaria among these providers using a previously validated observed patient simulation. There is substantial heterogeneity in providers' utility from treatment efficacy versus utility from higher profits. Higher marginal utility from treatment efficacy is positively associated with the quality of treatment among providers, and higher marginal utility from profit are negatively associated with quality of diagnosis. We found no consistent effect of the ratio of marginal utility of efficacy vs marginal utility of profit on quality of care. Our findings suggest that providers vary in their preferences towards profit and treatment efficacy, with those providers that place greater weight on treatment efficacy providing higher quality of care., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

In the absence of adequate social security, out-of-pocket health expenditure compels households to adopt coping strategies, such as utilizing savings, selling assets, or acquiring external financial support (EFS) by borrowing with interest. Households' probability of acquiring EFS and its amount (intensity) depends on its social capital - the nature of social relationships and resources embedded within social networks. This study examines the effect of social capital on the probability and intensity of EFS during health events in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India. The analysis used data from a cross-sectional survey of 6218 households, reporting 3066 healthcare events, from two districts of UP. Household heads (HH) reported demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related information, including EFS, for each household member. Self-reported data from Shortened and Adapted Social Capital Assessment Tool in India (SASCAT-I) was used to generate four unique social capital measures (organizational participation, social support, trust, and social cohesion) at HH and community-level, using multilevel confirmatory factor analysis. After descriptive analysis, two-part mixed-effect models were implemented to estimate the probability and intensity of EFS as a function of social capital measures, where multilevel mixed-effects probit regression was used as the first-part and multilevel mixed-effects linear model with log link and gamma distribution as the second-part. Controlling for all covariates, the probability of acquiring EFS significantly increased (p = 0.04) with higher social support of the HH and significantly decreased (p = 0.02) with higher community social cohesion. Conditional to receiving any EFS, higher social trust of the HH resulted in higher intensity of EFS (p = 0.09). Social support and trust may enable households to cope up with financial stress. However, controlling for the other dimensions of social capital, high cohesiveness with the community might restrict a household's access to external resources demonstrating the unintended effect of social capital exerted by formal or informal social control., Competing Interests: None., (© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Introduction: In an era of COVID-19, Black Lives Matter, and unsustainable healthcare spending, efforts to address the root causes of health are urgently needed. Research linking medical spending to variation in neighborhood resources is critical to building the case for increased funding for social conditions. However, few studies link neighborhood factors to medical spending. This study assesses the relationship between neighborhood social and environmental resources and medical spending across the spending distribution., Methods: Individual-level health outcomes were drawn from a sample of Medicaid enrollees living in Baltimore, Maryland during 2016. A multidimensional index of neighborhood social and environmental resources was created and stratified by tertile (high, medium, and low). Differences were examined in individual-level medical spending associated with living in high-, medium-, or low-resource neighborhoods in unadjusted and adjusted 2-part models and quantile regression models. Analyses were conducted in 2019., Results: Enrollees who live in neighborhoods with low social and environmental resources incur significantly higher spending at the mean and across the distribution of medical spending even after controlling for age, race, sex, and morbidity than those who live in neighborhoods with high social and environmental resources. On average, this spending difference between individuals in low- and those in high-resource neighborhoods is estimated to be $523.60 per person per year., Conclusions: Living in neighborhoods with low (versus those with high) resources is associated with higher individual-level medical spending across the distribution of medical spending. Findings suggest potential benefits from efforts to address the social and environmental context of neighborhoods in addition to the traditional orientation to addressing individual behavior and risk., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Survey researchers hope that respondents will provide high-quality data, but evidence suggests that social desirability bias may be commonplace. Social desirability can lead to significant underreporting or overreporting of sensitive behaviors. With better understanding of the cognitive processes that respondents use to prepare and deliver their responses, survey designers could hope to minimize social desirability bias or at least detect settings that lessen its impact. The primary objective of this study was to use survey paradata to understand the psychology of responding to certain types of survey questions. More specifically, we sought to determine how emotional triggering can alter response latencies to cognitively demanding and sensitive survey questions on induced abortion, which is underreported. We hypothesize that having had a prior abortion might lengthen response times to an indirect question about abortion among respondents who have experienced this sensitive reproductive outcome as they hesitate in deciding whether and how to respond to the question. Data come from a representative survey of 6,035 reproductive age women in Rajasthan, India. We used list experiment question active screen time paradata in conjunction with responses from direct questions on abortion to assess our hypothesis. Our final model was a multivariate linear regression with random effects at the level of the interviewer, including adjustments for respondent, community, and interviewer characteristics to estimate within-respondent effects. Results suggest that women who reported an abortion on the direct abortion questions took 5.11 (95% CI 0.21, 10.00) seconds longer to respond to the list experiment treatment list compared to the control list in comparison to women who did not report an abortion on the direct abortion questions. This study demonstrates the additional insights gained when focusing on response latencies to cognitively demanding questions involved in the measurement of sensitive behaviors., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Integrated health service delivery (IHSD) is a promising approach to improve health system resilience. However, there is a lack of evidence specific to the low/lower-middle-income country (L-LMIC) health systems on how IHSD is used during disease outbreaks. This scoping review aimed to synthesise the emerging evidence on IHSD approaches adopted in L-LMIC during the COVID-19 pandemic and systematically collate their operational features., Methods: A systematic scoping review of peer-reviewed literature, published in English between 1 December 2019 and 12 June 2020, from seven electronic databases was conducted to explore the evidence of IHSD implemented in L-LMICs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were systematically charted, and key features of IHSD systems were presented according to the postulated research questions of the review., Results: The literature search retrieved 1487 published articles from which 18 articles met the inclusion criteria and included in this review. Service delivery, health workforce, medicine and technologies were the three most frequently integrated health system building blocks during the COVID-19 pandemic. While responding to COVID-19, the L-LMICs principally implemented the IHSD system via systematic horizontal integration, led by specific policy measures. The government's stewardship, along with the decentralised decision-making capacity of local institutions and multisectoral collaboration, was the critical facilitator for IHSD. Simultaneously, fragmented service delivery structures, fragile supply chain, inadequate diagnostic capacity and insufficient workforce were key barriers towards integration., Conclusion: A wide array of context-specific IHSD approaches were operationalised in L-LMICs during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging recommendations emphasise the importance of coordination and integration across building blocks and levels of the health system, supported by a responsive governance structure and stakeholder engagement strategies. Future reviews can revisit this emerging evidence base at subsequent phases of COVID-19 response and recovery in L-LMICs to understand how the approaches highlighted here evolve., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

South Korea's COVID-19 control strategy has been widely emulated. Korea's ability to rapidly achieve disease control in early 2020 without a "Great Lockdown" despite its proximity to China and high population density make its achievement particularly intriguing. This paper helps explain Korea's pre-existing capabilities which enabled the rapid and effective implementation of its COVID-19 control strategies. A systematic assessment across multiple domains demonstrates that South Korea's advantages in controlling its epidemic are owed tremendously to legal and organizational reforms enacted after the MERS outbreak in 2015. Successful implementation of the Korean strategy required more than just a set of actions, measures and policies. It relied on a pre-existing legal framework, financing arrangements, governance and a workforce experienced in outbreak management., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors report no declarations of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted concern about the integrity of the US public health infrastructure. Federal, state, and local governments spend $93 billion annually on public health in the US, but most of this spending is at the state level. Thus, shoring up gaps in public health preparedness and response requires an understanding of state spending. We present state spending trends in eight categories of public health activity from 2008 through 2018. We obtained data from the Census Bureau for all states except California and coded the data by public health category. Although overall national health expenditures grew by 4.3 percent in this period, state governmental public health spending saw no statistically significant growth between 2008 and 2018 except in injury prevention. Moreover, state spending levels on public health were not restored after cuts experienced during the Great Recession, leaving states ill equipped to respond to COVID-19 and other emerging health needs.

Objective: To compare rates of pediatric hospital utilization across seven European countries., Methods: Secondary data from WHO's European Hospital Morbidity Database from 2009 to 2012. Cross- country comparison of rates of admissions and bed days per 100 person-years by clinical service. We tabulated counts of admissions and bed days by principal diagnosis and age group for Ireland, Austria, Hungary, Belgium, Spain, Germany, and France. ICD 9 or ICD 10 or ISHMT diagnosis codes were allocated to clinical services. Normal newborn admissions were excluded from the analysis. Simple linear regression models, weighted by pediatric population size, were constructed to estimate the relationships between health care utilization and factors that may influence variation in care., Results: Hospital admission across the seven countries ranged from 9.41 (Spain) to 19.59 (Germany) admissions per 100 person-years. Bed days ranged from a low of 52.50 (Spain) to 135.44 (Germany) per 100 person-years. General pediatrics and neonatology led in clinical volume across all countries. Infectious disease admissions were the third most common. Bed supply and nurse supply were positively associated with health care utilization. Out-of-pocket payment was inversely associated with health care utilization CONCLUSIONS: A wide range of utilization of pediatric inpatient care was observed across seven European countries that have universal coverage. Variation in the provision of effective, supply-sensitive, and preference-sensitive care may explain some of the variations. Our study shows that it is probable that preventable hospital admissions are occurring in the pediatric population., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have become an important policy tool for increasing demand for key maternal and child health services in low/middle-income countries. Yet, these programs have had variable success in increasing service use. Understanding beneficiary preferences for design features of CCTs can increase program effectiveness., Methods: We conducted a Discrete choice experiment in two districts of Uttar Pradesh, India in 2018 with 405 mothers with young children (<3 years). Respondents were asked to choose between hypothetical CCT programme profiles described in terms of five attribute levels (cash, antenatal care visits, growth-monitoring and immunisation visits, visit duration and health benefit received) and responses were analysed using mixed logit regression., Results: Mothers most valued the cash transfer amount, followed by the health benefit received from services. Mothers did not have a strong preference for conditionalities related to the number of health centre visits or for time spent seeking care; however, service delivery points were in close proximity to households. Mothers were willing to accept lower cash rewards for better perceived health benefits-they were willing to accept 2854 Indian rupees ($41) less for a programme that produced good health, which is about half the amount currently offered by India's Maternal Benefits Program. Mothers who had low utilisation of health services, and those from poor households, valued the cash transfer and the health benefit significantly more than others., Conclusion: Both cash transfers and the perceived health benefit from services are highly valued, particularly by infrequent service users. In CCTs, this highlights the importance of communicating value of services to beneficiaries by informing about health benefits of services and providing quality care. Conditionalities requiring frequent health centre visits or time taken for seeking care may not have large negative effects on CCT participation in contexts of good service coverage., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Public health in the rural United States is a complex and underfunded enterprise. While urban-rural disparities have been a focus for researchers and policymakers alike for decades, inequalities continue to grow. Life expectancy at birth is now 1 to 2 years greater between wealthier urban and rural counties, and is as much as 5 years, on average, between wealthy and poor counties.This article explores the growth in these disparities over the past 40 years, with roots in structural, economic, and social spending differentials that have emerged or persisted over the same time period. Importantly, a focus on place-based disparities recognizes that the rural United States is not a monolith, with important geographic and cultural differences present regionally. We also focus on the challenges the rural governmental public health enterprise faces, the so-called "double disparity" of worse health outcomes and behaviors alongside modest investment in health departments compared with their nonrural peers.Finally, we offer 5 population-based "prescriptions" for supporting rural public health in the United States. These relate to greater investment and supporting rural advocacy to better address the needs of the rural United States in this new decade.

Recent infectious disease outbreaks, including the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic and Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, have demonstrated the critical importance of resilient health systems in safeguarding global health security. Importantly, the human, economic and political tolls of these crises are being amplified by health systems' inabilities to respond quickly and effectively. Improving resilience within health systems can build on pre-existing strengths to enhance the readiness of health system actors to respond to crises, while also maintaining core functions. Using data gathered from a scoping literature review, interviews with key informants and from stakeholders who attended a workshop held in Dhaka, Bangladesh, we developed a Health System Resilience Checklist ('the checklist'). The aim of the checklist is to measure the specific capacities, capabilities and processes that health systems need in order to ensure resilience in the face of both infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards. The checklist is intended to be adapted and used in a broad set of countries as a component of ongoing processes to ensure that health actors, institutions and populations can mount an effective response to infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards while also maintaining core healthcare services. The checklist is an important first step in improving health system resilience to these threats, but additional research and resources will be necessary to further refine and prioritise the checklist items and to pilot the checklist with the frontline health facilities that would be using it. This will help ensure its feasibility and durability for the long-term within the health systems strengthening and health security fields., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives. To examine the accuracy of official estimates of governmental health spending in the United States. Methods. We coded approximately 2.7 million administrative spending records from 2000 to 2018 for public health activities according to a standardized Uniform Chart of Accounts produced by the Public Health Activities and Services Tracking project. The official US Public Health Activity estimate was recalculated using updated estimates from the data coding. Results. Although official estimates place governmental public health spending at more than $93 billion (2.5% of total spending on health), detailed examination of spending records from state governments shows that official estimates include substantial spending on individual health care services (e.g., behavioral health) and that actual spending on population-level public health activities is more likely between $35 billion and $64 billion (approximately 1.5% of total health spending). Conclusions. Clarity in understanding of public health spending is critical for characterizing its value proposition. Official estimates are likely tens of billions of dollars greater than actual spending. Public Health Implications. Precise and clear spending estimates are material for policymakers to accurately understand the effect of their resource allocation decisions.

Thomas Frieden's "health impact pyramid" presents a hierarchy in which the wide base of the pyramid of socioeconomic factors at a population level has more impact on the health of the public than do individually focused interventions at the pyramid's top.From this pyramid perspective, the US spending priorities are misaligned, as expenses targeted at public health and socioeconomic factors are far outstripped by spending on individual health care services at the top of the pyramid. The nation's ongoing debate on health care reform continues to focus on access to individual health care services, despite evidence demonstrating the health impacts of population-level efforts at the base of the pyramid and the synergistic health impacts of health and social service collaboration.We examine the need for improved systems alignment through the lens of the health impact pyramid. We catalog the types of misalignments and their social, political, and systems genesis. We identify promising opportunities to realign US health spending toward the socioeconomic factor base of the health impact pyramid and emphasize the need to integrate and align public health, social services, and medical care in the United States.

Objective: Having the world's second-largest tobacco-consuming population, tobacco control is a priority agenda of the Indian Government. Yet, there is no evidence of how peer influence and nature of social relationships-defined as social capital-affect tobacco use. This study aimed to explore the role of social capital and peer influence on tobacco consumption among household heads in rural Uttar Pradesh (UP), India., Design and Setting: This study was embedded within the baseline evaluation of Project Samuday. A cross-sectional multistage cluster survey was implemented in six census blocks of Hardoi and Sitapur districts of UP from June to August 2017. Self-reported tobacco consumption status of randomly selected 6218 household heads (≥18 years; men vs women=5312 vs 906) was assessed from 346 rural communities. Peer influence of tobacco use was measured by the non-self cluster proportion of tobacco consumption among respondents. Community engagement, social support, trust and social cohesion were separately measured as unique facets of social capital both at individual and community levels using the Shortened Adapted Social Capital Assessment Tool in India (SASCAT-I). The explanatory power of covariates was assessed using gender-stratified generalised estimating equations (GEE) with robust-variance estimator., Result: Tobacco consumption patterns were starkly different for men and women (71% vs 14%). The peer influence only affected men (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.10, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.16, p<0.01), whereas women were more likely to consume tobacco if they were more engaged with community organisations (AOR=1.33, 95% CI=1.07 to 1.66, p<0.01)., Conclusion: Gender alters the way social engagement affects tobacco use in rural India. Countering peer influence on Indian men should be prioritised as a tobacco control strategy. Moreover, as gender mainstreaming is a critical egalitarian agenda in India, further research is needed to understand how social engagement affects tobacco consumption behaviours among women., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To develop a tool to assess the safety of the home environment that could produce valid measures of a child's risk of suffering an injury., Methods: Tool development: A four-step process was used to develop the CHASE (Child Housing Assessment for a Safe Environment) tool, including (1) a literature scan, (2) reviewing of existing housing inspection tools, (3) key informants interviews, and (4) reviewing the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System to determine the leading housing elements associated with paediatric injury. Retrospective case-control study to validate the CHASE tool: Recruitment included case (injured) and control (sick but not injured) children and their families from a large, urban paediatric emergency department in Baltimore, Maryland in 2012. Trained inspectors applied both the well-known Home Quality Standard (HQS) and the CHASE tool to each enrollee's home, and we compared scores on individual and summary items between cases and controls., Results: Twenty-five items organised around 12 subdomains were included on the CHASE tool. 71 matched pairs were enrolled and included in the analytic sample. Comparisons between cases and controls revealed statistically significant differences in scores on individual items of the CHASE tool as well as on the overall score, with the cases systematically having worse scores. No differences were found between groups on the HQS measures., Conclusion: Programmes conducting housing inspections in the homes of children should consider including the CHASE tool as part of their inspection measures. Future study of the CHASE inspection tool in a prospective trial would help assess its efficacy in preventing injuries and reducing medical costs., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: This paper estimates the impact on childhood drowning rates of community-based introduction of crèches or playpens or both in rural Bangladesh for children aged 0-47 months., Methods: A baseline census of the whole population of 270,387 households in 51 unions, 451 villages from 7 rural sub-districts in Bangladesh was conducted in 2013. The baseline census determined retrospective, age-specific, and cumulative drowning incidence rates (IR) experienced in the target households in the 12 months prior to the intervention. Beginning in late 2013, creches for drowning prevention were established across the study area. Acceptance into creches was provided and written assent to attend a creche was obtained for all children aged 9-47 months in all participating unions. Playpens were provided to 45,460 of these children, of which 5981 children received only the playpens. All children were followed-up until their 48-month birthday or administrative censoring (fixed timepoint to stop observing the drowning deaths), after a two-year implementation period (2014-2016). Drowning IR were estimated for children and compared to corresponding baseline rates from 2012. Age-specific drowning IR under different "as treated" categories (playpen-only, creche-only, and playpen-plus-creche) were compared to the baseline rates experienced by the categorized households prior to intervention., Results: A total of 3205 creches (average of 7 creches per village) were established, and 116,054 children aged 9-47 months were exposed to the intervention packages. Aggregated drowning IRs between age 0 and 47 were estimated per 100,000 population per year at 86.73 (95% CI: 69.67-107.97) and 43.03 (95% CI: 35.55-52.10) in the baseline and post implementation period, respectively. Risk ratios were 0.40 (95% CI: 0.28-0.57) overall, and 0.34 (95% CI: 0.13-0.90), 0.09 (95% CI: 0.02-0.36), and 0.04 (95% CI: 0.002-0.60) in children under the creche-only, aged, 1, 2, and 3 years old respectively. Inexplicably, drowning rates were statistically significantly higher post-intervention in children 0-11 months. There was no mortality reduction with playpen use (alone or in combination), and this group may actually have had a higher risk of drowning., Conclusions: Creches are effective for preventing childhood drowning in rural Bangladesh for children above age 1-year, and should be considered for further scale-up.

Objective: The objective of this study is to describe and analyse the prevalence of speeding, helmet use and red-light running among riders of non-motorised vehicles (NMVs) in Shanghai, China, with a focus on electric bikes (ebikes)., Methods: Observational studies were conducted in eight randomly selected locations in Shanghai. Descriptive statistics and a Cox proportional hazard (PH) model were used in the analyses., Findings: A total of 14 828 NMVs were observed in November 2017. At the free flow sites, the average speed was 22.5 km/hour for ebikes and 13.4 km/hour for bicycles. 95.5% of ebikes run above 15 km/hour, the legal speed limit for NMVs in China and 83.8% above 20 km/hour, the maximum design speed for ebikes. Helmet wearing rate was 13.5% for ebike drivers and 9.4% for passengers. Riders of commercial ebikes were nearly three times more likely to wear a helmet than personal ebikes. 22.4% of ebikes were observed to run a red light. The Cox PH model showed that ebikes (vs bicycles), males (vs females), clear weather (vs cloudy, rainy and snowy), helmet users (vs nonusers) are associated with a higher hazard for running a red light., Conclusion: To our knowledge, this study is among the first comprehensive evaluation of road user behaviours for NMVs in China. An effective intervention package including regulating ebike production to national standards, strengthening speed enforcement and passing legislation on mandatory helmet use for ebike users may be able to help., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Expanding access to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is difficult if one is limited to government and donor financial resources. Private commercial markets could play a larger role in the continuous distribution of LLINs by offering differentiated LLINs to middle-class Ghanaians. This population segment has disposable income and may be willing to pay for LLINs that meet their preferences. Measuring the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for LLINs with specialty features that appeal to middle-class Ghanaians could help malaria control programmes understand what is the potential for private markets to work alongside fully subsidized LLIN distribution channels to assist in spreading this commodity., Methods: This study conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) including a real payment choice among a representative sample of 628 middle-income households living in Ashanti, Greater Accra, and Western regions in Ghana. The DCE presented 18 paired combinations of LLIN features and various prices. Respondents indicated which LLIN of each pair they preferred and whether they would purchase it. To validate stated willingness-to-pay, each participant was given a cash payment of $14.30 (GHS 65) that they could either keep or immediately spend on one of the LLIN products., Results: The households' average probability of purchasing a LLIN with specialty features was 43.8% (S.D. 0.07) and WTP was $7.48 (GHS34.0). The preferred LLIN features were conical or rectangular one-point-hang shape, queen size, and zipper entry. The average WTP for a LLIN with all the preferred features was $18.48 (GHS 84). In a scenario with the private LLIN market, the public sector outlay could be reduced by 39% and private LLIN sales would generate $8.1 million ($311 per every 100 households) in revenue in the study area that would support jobs for Ghanaian retailers, distributors, and importers of LLINs., Conclusion: Results support a scenario in which commercial markets for LLINs could play a significant role in improving access to LLINs for middle-income Ghanaians. Manufacturers interested could offer LLIN designs with features that are most highly valued among middle-income households in Ghana and maintain a retail price that could yield sufficient economic returns.

Despite an overall downward trend in child sex ratios in India, some of the most imbalanced districts in 2001 (fewer girls than boys) showed signs of becoming more balanced in 2011. This analysis looked in depth at these districts to better understand the nature of the improvement in the child sex ratio using two rounds of data from the Census of India from 2001 and 2011. Data were used from the 153 districts that showed improvement in their child sex ratio between 2001 and 2011. The improvement was decomposed into: (1) less sex-selective abortion and (2) improved girl compared with boy mortality. Most of the improvement in child sex ratios were shown to be due to reductions in sex-selective abortion, although this still made up the majority of the cause of imbalanced sex ratios in 2011. Child sex ratio improvement has been happening in both rural and urban areas of India, and there is evidence of stagnation in mortality decline for urban girls.

Background: The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak was a wake-up call regarding the critical importance of resilient health systems. Fragile health systems can become overwhelmed during public health crises, further exacerbating the human, economic, and political toll. Important work has been done to describe the general attributes of a health system resilient to these crises, and the next step will be to identify the specific capacities that health systems need to develop and maintain to achieve resiliency., Methods: We conducted a scoping review of the literature to identify recurring themes and capacities needed for health system resiliency to infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards and any existing implementation frameworks that highlight these capacities. We also sought to identify the overlap of the identified themes and capacities with those highlighted in the World Health Organization's Joint External Evaluation. Sources of evidence included PubMed, Web of Science, OAIster, and the websites of relevant major public health organizations., Results: We identified 16 themes of health system resilience, including: the need to develop plans for altered standards of care during emergencies, the need to develop plans for post-event recovery, and a commitment to quality improvement. Most of the literature described the general attributes of a resilient health system; no implementation frameworks were identified that could translate these elements into specific capacities that health system actors can employ to improve resilience to outbreaks and natural hazards in a variety of settings., Conclusions: An implementation-oriented health system resilience framework could help translate the important components of a health system identified in this review into specific capacities that actors in the health system could work to develop to improve resilience to public health crises. However, there remains a need to further refine the concept of resilience so that health systems can simultaneously achieve sustainable transformations in healthcare practice and health service delivery as well as improve their preparedness for emergencies.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost of serving one additional youth in the Big Brothers Big Sisters of America (BBBS) program. We used a marginal cost approach which offers a significant improvement over previous methods based on average total cost estimates. The data consisted of eight years of monthly records from January 2008 to August 2015 obtained from program administrators at one BBBS site in the Mid-Atlantic. Results show that the BBBS marginal cost to serve one additional youth was $80 per mentor-month of BBBS mentoring (irrespective of program type). The cost to offer services for the average match duration of 19 months per marginal added youth was $1,503. The marginal costs per treated program participant in school-based versus community-based programs were $1,199 and $3,301, respectively. Marginal cost estimates are in the range of youth mentoring programs with significant returns on investment but are substantially higher than prior BBBS unit cost estimates reported using less robust estimation methods. This cost analysis can better inform policy makers and donors on the cost of expanding the scale of local BBBS programs as well as suggest opportunities for cost savings., Competing Interests: Declarations of interest: none

Global health research has typically focused on single diseases, and most economic evaluation research to date has analysed technical health interventions to identify 'best buys'. New approaches in the conduct of economic evaluations are needed to help policymakers in choosing what may be good value (ie, greater health, distribution of health, or financial risk protection) for money (ie, per budget expenditure) investments for health system strengthening (HSS) that tend to be programmatic. We posit that these economic evaluations of HSS interventions will require developing new analytic models of health systems which recognise the dynamic connections between the different components of the health system, characterise the type and interlinks of the system's delivery platforms; and acknowledge the multiple constraints both within and outside the health sector which limit the system's capacity to efficiently attain its objectives. We describe priority health system modelling research areas to conduct economic evaluation of HSS interventions and ultimately identify good value for money investments in HSS., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Although induced abortion is common, measurement issues have long made this area of research challenging. The current analysis applies an indirect method known as the list experiment to try to improve survey-based measurement of induced abortion. We added a double list experiment to a population-based survey of reproductive age women in Rajasthan, India and compared resulting abortion estimates to those we obtained via direct questioning in the same sample. We then evaluated list experiment assumptions. The final sample completing the survey consisted of 6,035 women. Overall, 1.8 percent of the women reported a past abortion via the list experiment questions, whereas 3.5 percent reported an abortion via the direct questions, and this difference was statistically significant. As such, the list experiment failed to produce more valid estimates of this sensitive behavior on a population-based survey of reproductive age women in Rajasthan, India. One explanation for the poor list experiment performance is our finding that key assumptions of the methodology were violated. Women may have mentally enumerated the treatment list items differently from the way they enumerated control list items. Further research is required to determine whether researchers can learn enough about how the list experiment performs in different contexts to effectively and consistently leverage its potential benefits to improve measurement of induced abortion., (© 2019 The Population Council, Inc.)

Importance: Disability among older adults is a strong predictor of health outcomes, health service use, and health care costs. Few interventions have reduced disability among older adults., Objective: To determine whether a 10-session, home-based, multidisciplinary program reduces disability., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this randomized clinical trial of 300 low-income community-dwelling adults with a disability in Baltimore, Maryland, between March 18, 2012, and April 29, 2016, 65 years or older, cognitively intact, and with self-reported difficulty with 1 or more activities of daily living (ADLs) or 2 or more instrumental ADLs (IADLs), participants were interviewed in their home at baseline, 5 months (end point), and 12 months (follow-up) by trained research assistants who were masked to the group allocation. Participants were randomized to either the intervention (CAPABLE) group (n = 152) or the attention control group (n = 148) through a computer-based assignment scheme, stratified by sex in randomized blocks. Intention-to-treat analysis was used to assess the intervention. Data were analyzed from September 2017 through August 2018., Interventions: The CAPABLE group received up to 10 home visits over 5 months by occupational therapists, registered nurses, and home modifiers to address self-identified functional goals by enhancing individual capacity and the home environment. The control group received 10 social home visits by a research assistant., Main Outcomes and Measures: Disability with ADLs or IADLs at 5 months. Each ADL and IADL task was self-scored from 0 to 2 according to whether in the previous month the person did not have difficulty and did not need help (0), did not need help but had difficulty (1), or needed help regardless of difficulty (2). The overall score ranged from 0 to 16 points., Results: Of the 300 people randomized to either the CAPABLE group (n = 152) or the control group (n = 148), 133 of the CAPABLE participants (87.5%) were women with a mean (SD) age of 75.7 (7.6) years; 126 (82.9%) self-identified as black. Of the controls, 129 (87.2%) were women with a mean (SD) age of 75.4 (7.4) years; 133 (89.9%) self-identified as black. CAPABLE participation resulted in 30% reduction in ADL disability scores at 5 months (relative risk [RR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.54-0.93; P = .01) vs control participation. CAPABLE participation resulted in a statistically nonsignificant 17% reduction in IADL disability scores (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.65-1.06; P = .13) vs control participation. Participants in the CAPABLE group vs those in the control group were more likely to report that the program made their life easier (82.3% vs 43.1%; P < .001), helped them take care of themselves (79.8% vs 35.5%; P < .001), and helped them gain confidence in managing daily challenges (79.9% vs 37.7%; P < .001)., Conclusions and Relevance: Low-income community-dwelling older adults who received the CAPABLE intervention experienced substantial decrease in disability; disability may be modifiable through addressing both the person and the environment., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01576133.