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Background: There is a paucity of prognostic models for COVID-19 that are usable for in-office patient assessment in general practice (GP)., Objectives: To develop and validate a risk prediction model for hospital admission with readily available predictors., Methods: A retrospective cohort study linking GP records from 8 COVID-19 centres and 55 general practices in the Netherlands to hospital admission records. The development cohort spanned March to June 2020, the validation cohort March to June 2021. The primary outcome was hospital admission within 14 days. We used geographic leave-region-out cross-validation in the development cohort and temporal validation in the validation cohort., Results: In the development cohort, 4,806 adult patients with COVID-19 consulted their GP (median age 56, 56% female); in the validation cohort 830 patients did (median age 56, 52% female). In the development and validation cohort respectively, 292 (6.1%) and 126 (15.2%) were admitted to the hospital within 14 days, respectively. A logistic regression model based on sex, smoking, symptoms, vital signs and comorbidities predicted hospital admission with a c-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.86) at geographic cross-validation and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83) at temporal validation, and was reasonably well calibrated (intercept -0.08, 95% CI -0.98 to 0.52, slope 0.89, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.07 at geographic cross-validation and intercept 0.02, 95% CI -0.21 to 0.24, slope 0.82, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.00 at temporal validation)., Conclusion: We derived a risk model using readily available variables at GP assessment to predict hospital admission for COVID-19. It performed accurately across regions and waves. Further validation on cohorts with acquired immunity and newer SARS-CoV-2 variants is recommended.

Objective: To clarify the composition of lesions in different magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) partitions of positive surgical margins (PSM) after laparoscopic radical prostatectomy, explore the influence of lesion location on PSM, and construct a clinical prediction model to predict the risk of PSM., Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 309 patients who underwent laparoscopic radical prostatectomy from 2018 to 2021 in our center was performed. 129 patients who met the same criteria from January to September 2022 were external validation cohorts., Results: The incidence of PSM in transition zone (TZ) lesions was higher than that in peripheral zone (PZ) lesions. The incidence of PSM in the middle PZ was lower than that in other regions. Prostate specific antigen (PSA), clinical T-stage, the number of positive cores, international society of urological pathology (ISUP) grade (biopsy), MRI lesion location, extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), pseudo-capsule invasion (PCI), long diameter of lesions, lesion volume, lesion volume ratio, PSA density were related to PSM. MRI lesion location and PCI were independent risk factors for PSM. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to construct a clinical prediction model for PSM, including five variables: the number of positive cores, SVI, MRI lesion location, long diameter of lesions, and PSA., Conclusion: The positive rate of surgical margin in middle PZ was significantly lower than that in other regions, and MRI lesion location was an independent risk factor for PSM., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Federación de Sociedades Españolas de Oncología (FESEO).)

Background and Aims: Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients face a 3-5 times greater risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) compared to those without NVAF. This study aims to establish a novel clinical prediction model for AIS in elderly patients with NVAF by incorporating relevant biomarker indicators., Methods: A total of 301 individuals diagnosed with NVAF were selected for this investigation at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University. Based on the presence of AIS, patients were categorized into two groups: the Stroke Cohort and the Non-Stroke Cohort. Predictor screening was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) regression algorithm. The binary logistic regression equation was applied to fit the model, followed by internal validation using the bootstrap resampling method (1000 times). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration degree curve plots, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) were generated, respectively. Finally, a nomogram was constructed to present the prediction model., Results: The final results of this study revealed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red cell distribution width (RDW), lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)), systolic pressure, history of stroke, hyperlipidemia were independent risk factors for AIS in elderly patients with NVAF ( P <0.05). And the high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was an independent protective factor ( P <0.05). By incorporating these indicators, a nomogram prediction model for predicting AIS in elderly patients with NVAF was constructed. Comparative analysis between the nomogram predictive model and CHA2DS2-VASc score revealed that the AUC of the nomogram predictive model surpassed that of the CHA2DS2-VASc score (AUC: 0.881vs 0.850)., Conclusion: NLR, RDW, Lp(a), SP, history of stroke, hyperlipidemia, and HDL-C emerge as independent prognostic factors for acute ischemic stroke in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The predictive utility of the nomogram model may potentially surpass that of the CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest statement., (© 2024 Guo et al.)

Objectives: To demonstrate the importance of extracapsular extension (ECE) of transitional zone (TZ) prostate cancer (PCa), examine the causes of its missed detection by Mp-MRI, and develop a new predictive model by integrating multi-level clinical variables., Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 304 patients who underwent laparoscopic radical prostatectomy after 12 + X needle transperineal transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-MRI-guided targeted prostate biopsy from 2018 to 2021 in our center was performed., Results: In this study, the incidence rates of ECE were similar in patients with MRI lesions in the peripheral zone (PZ) and TZ (P = 0.66). However, the missed detection rate was higher in patients with TZ lesions than in those with PZ lesions (P < 0.05). These missed detections result in a higher positive surgical margin rate (P < 0.05). In patients with TZ lesions, detected MP-MRI ECE may have grey areas: the longest diameters of the MRI lesions were 16.5-23.5 mm; MRI lesion volumes were 0.63-2.51 ml; MRI lesion volume ratios were 2.75-8.86%; PSA were 13.85-23.05 ng/ml. LASSO regression was used to construct a clinical prediction model for predicting the risk of ECE in TZ lesions from the perspective of MRI and clinical features, including four variables: the longest diameter of MRI lesions, TZ pseudocapsule invasion, ISUP grading of biopsy pathology, and number of positive biopsy needles., Conclusions: Patients with MRI lesions in the TZ have the same incidence of ECE as those with lesions in the PZ, but a higher missed detection rate., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Clinical prediction models are useful in estimating a patient's risk of having a certain disease or experiencing an event in the future based on their current characteristics. Defining an appropriate risk threshold to recommend intervention is a key challenge in bringing a risk prediction model to clinical application; such risk thresholds are often defined in an ad hoc way. This is problematic because tacitly assumed costs of false positive and false negative classifications may not be clinically sensible. For example, when choosing the risk threshold that maximizes the proportion of patients correctly classified, false positives and false negatives are assumed equally costly. Furthermore, small to moderate sample sizes may lead to unstable optimal thresholds, which requires a particularly cautious interpretation of results., Main Text: We discuss how three common myths about risk thresholds often lead to inappropriate risk stratification of patients. First, we point out the contexts of counseling and shared decision-making in which a continuous risk estimate is more useful than risk stratification. Second, we argue that threshold selection should reflect the consequences of the decisions made following risk stratification. Third, we emphasize that there is usually no universally optimal threshold but rather that a plausible risk threshold depends on the clinical context. Consequently, we recommend to present results for multiple risk thresholds when developing or validating a prediction model., Conclusion: Bearing in mind these three considerations can avoid inappropriate allocation (and non-allocation) of interventions. Using discriminating and well-calibrated models will generate better clinical outcomes if context-dependent thresholds are used.