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Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid- to high-disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co-developed with end-user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near-real-time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real-world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near-term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Sewage pollution from on-site sewage disposal systems and injection wells is impacting coral reefs worldwide. Our study documented the presence and impact of sewage on South Kohala's coral reefs, on Hawai'i Island, through benthic water quality and macroalgal sampling (fecal indicator bacteria, nutrients, δ 15 N macroalgal tissue), NO 3 - stable isotope mixing models, water motion measurements, and coral reef surveys. Sewage pollution was moderate on the offshore reef from benthic seeps, and water motion mixed and diluted it across the benthos. These conditions likely contribute to the dominance of turf algae cover, and the severity and prevalence of growth anomalies and algal overgrowth on corals. Use of multiple indicators and studying water motion was necessary to assess sewage pollution and identify environmental drivers associated with impaired coral health conditions. Methods used in this study can be utilized by natural resource managers to identify and reduce anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Hawaiian Archipelago experienced a moderate bleaching event in 2019-the third major bleaching event over a 6-year period to impact the islands. In response, the Hawai'i Coral Bleaching Collaborative (HCBC) conducted 2,177 coral bleaching surveys across the Hawaiian Archipelago. The HCBC was established to coordinate bleaching monitoring efforts across the state between academic institutions, non-governmental organizations, and governmental agencies to facilitate data sharing and provide management recommendations. In 2019, the goals of this unique partnership were to: 1) assess the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal stress; 2) examine taxa-level patterns in bleaching susceptibility; 3) quantify spatial variation in bleaching extent; 4) compare 2019 patterns to those of prior bleaching events; 5) identify predictors of bleaching in 2019; and 6) explore site-specific management strategies to mitigate future bleaching events. Both acute thermal stress and bleaching in 2019 were less severe overall compared to the last major marine heatwave events in 2014 and 2015. Bleaching observed was highly site- and taxon-specific, driven by the susceptibility of remaining coral assemblages whose structure was likely shaped by previous bleaching and subsequent mortality. A suite of environmental and anthropogenic predictors was significantly correlated with observed bleaching in 2019. Acute environmental stressors, such as temperature and surface light, were equally important as previous conditions (e.g. historical thermal stress and historical bleaching) in accounting for variation in bleaching during the 2019 event. We found little evidence for acclimation by reefs to thermal stress in the main Hawaiian Islands. Moreover, our findings illustrate how detrimental effects of local anthropogenic stressors, such as tourism and urban run-off, may be exacerbated under high thermal stress. In light of the forecasted increase in severity and frequency of bleaching events, future mitigation of both local and global stressors is a high priority for the future of corals in Hawai'i., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective: To compare the acceptability and perceived helpfulness of an e-Oral Health intervention in form of text messages versus standard dental leaflets provided after a dental visit to patients aged 65 years and over., Background: Oral health care needs for older people are increasing. Remote interventions using e-Health can ensure oral care is provided despite physical hindrances or situations where dental appointments are limited such as has happened more widely during the COVID-19 pandemic., Materials and Methods: Mixed-method nested study within a pilot trial. Dental patients (n = 150) at an outreach primary dental care centre, ≥ 65 years old, were recruited and randomly allocated to e-Oral health text messages or leaflet intervention arms. Post-intervention (6 months), participants responded to open and closed-ended two-way survey phone texts. Survey questions investigated: (a) whether they would recommend the intervention, (b) intervention helpfulness and (c) OPEN feedback. Average helpfulness scores (Scale:1= Very Helpful to 5= Not Helpful at All) were compared for each arm using Independent Sample t-test. Percentage of participants providing positive recommendations in each arm were compared using chi-squared tests. Qualitative findings were analysed using thematic analysis., Results: N = 68 (45%) responded. Mean helpfulness scores in text group M = 2.2, SD=1.1) and leaflet group M = 2.3, SD=1.9, P = .29. Amongst the text arm respondents, 89% compared with 68.2% in leaflet arm; P = .005 would recommend the intervention. Four qualitative themes were outlined: intervention approach, content, behavioural impact and recommendations., Conclusion: e-Oral Health text interventions are acceptable and helpful to older people, but these messages need to be tailored., (© 2021 Gerodontology Association and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Nutrient sources to coastal waters with coral reefs are not well-characterized. This study documented spatial distributions of nutrients within coastal waters along two developments with coral reefs, and identified nutrient sources through nutrient mixing plots, δ 15 N measurements in macroalgal tissue, and NO 3 - stable isotope mixing models. Nutrients decreased from fresh groundwaters to offshore waters, with some surface waters higher in concentrations than benthic ones. Conservative and non-conservative mixing between fresh and ocean waters occurred, the latter suggestive of local nutrient sources and biological removal. δ 15 N in macroalgal tissue and NO 3 - concurred that fresh groundwater, ocean water, and fertilizers were dominant nutrient sources. Benthic salinity and NO 3 - + NO 2 - concentrations illustrated that submarine groundwater discharge delivered nutrients to reefs in pulses ranging from minutes to days. Information generated from this study is imperative for developing management actions to improve water quality and make coral reefs more resilient to stressors., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Sewage pollution is contributing to the global decline of coral reefs. Identifying locations where it is entering waters near reefs is therefore a management priority. Our study documented shoreline sewage pollution hotspots in a coastal community with a fringing coral reef (Puakō, Hawai'i) using dye tracer studies, sewage indicator measurements, and a pollution scoring tool. Sewage reached shoreline waters within 9 h to 3 d. Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were high and variable, and δ 15 N macroalgal values were indicative of sewage at many stations. Shoreline nutrient concentrations were two times higher than those in upland groundwater. Pollution hotspots were identified with a scoring tool using three sewage indicators. It confirmed known locations of sewage pollution from dye tracer studies. Our study highlights the need for a multi-indicator approach and scoring tool to identify sewage pollution hotspots. This approach will be useful for other coastal communities grappling with sewage pollution., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Plastic waste can promote microbial colonization by pathogens implicated in outbreaks of disease in the ocean. We assessed the influence of plastic waste on disease risk in 124,000 reef-building corals from 159 reefs in the Asia-Pacific region. The likelihood of disease increases from 4% to 89% when corals are in contact with plastic. Structurally complex corals are eight times more likely to be affected by plastic, suggesting that microhabitats for reef-associated organisms and valuable fisheries will be disproportionately affected. Plastic levels on coral reefs correspond to estimates of terrestrial mismanaged plastic waste entering the ocean. We estimate that 11.1 billion plastic items are entangled on coral reefs across the Asia-Pacific and project this number to increase 40% by 2025. Plastic waste management is critical for reducing diseases that threaten ecosystem health and human livelihoods., (Copyright © 2018, The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

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As disease spreads through living coral, it can induce changes in the distribution of coral's naturally fluorescent pigments, making fluorescence a potentially powerful non-invasive intrinsic marker of coral disease. Here, we show the usefulness of live-imaging laser scanning confocal microscopy to investigate coral health state. We demonstrate that the Hawaiian coral Montipora capitata consistently emits cyan and red fluorescence across a depth gradient in reef habitats, but the micro-scale spatial distribution of those pigments differ between healthy coral and coral affected by a tissue loss disease. Naturally diseased and laboratory infected coral systematically exhibited fragmented fluorescent pigments adjacent to the disease front as indicated by several measures of landscape structure (e.g., number of patches) relative to healthy coral. Histology results supported these findings. Pigment fragmentation indicates a disruption in coral tissue that likely impedes translocation of energy within a colony. The area of fragmented fluorescent pigments in diseased coral extended 3.03 mm ± 1.80 mm adjacent to the disease front, indicating pathogenesis was highly localized rather than systemic. Our study demonstrates that coral fluorescence can be used as a proxy for coral health state, and, such patterns may help refine hypotheses about modes of pathogenesis.

2014 marked the sixth and most widespread mass bleaching event reported in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, home to the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), the world's second largest marine reserve. This event was associated with an unusual basin-scale warming in the North Pacific Ocean, with an unprecedented peak intensity of around 20°C-weeks of cumulative heat stress at Lisianksi Island. In situ bleaching surveys and satellite data were used to evaluate the relative importance of potential drivers of bleaching patterns in 2014, assess the subsequent morality and its effects on coral communities and 3D complexity, test for signs of regional acclimation, and investigate long-term change in heat stress in PMNM. Surveys conducted at four island/atoll (French Frigate Shoals, Lisianski Island, Pearl and Hermes Atoll, and Midway Atoll) showed that in 2014, percent bleaching varied considerably between islands/atolls and habitats (back reef/fore reef and depth), and was up to 91% in shallow habitats at Lisianski. The percent bleaching during the 2014 event was best explained by a combination of duration of heat stress measured by Coral Reef Watch's satellite Degree Heating Week, relative community susceptibility (bleaching susceptibility score of each taxon * the taxon's abundance relative to the total number of colonies), depth and region. Mean coral cover at permanent Lisianski monitoring sites decreased by 68% due to severe losses of Montipora dilatata complex, resulting in rapid reductions in habitat complexity. Spatial distribution of the 2014 bleaching was significantly different from the 2002 and 2004 bleaching events likely due to a combination of differences in heat stress and local acclimatization. Historical satellite data demonstrated heat stress in 2014 was unlike any previous event and that the exposure of corals to the bleaching-level heat stress has increased significantly in the northern PMNM since 1982, highlighting the increasing threat of climate change to reefs.

The Hawai'i Coral Disease database (HICORDIS) houses data on colony-level coral health condition observed across the Hawaiian archipelago, providing information to conduct future analyses on coral reef health in an era of changing environmental conditions. Colonies were identified to the lowest taxonomic classification possible (species or genera), measured and assessed for visual signs of health condition. Data were recorded for 286,071 coral colonies surveyed on 1819 transects at 660 sites between 2005 and 2015. The database contains observations for 60 species from 22 genera with 21 different health conditions. The goals of the HICORDIS database are to: i) provide open access, quality controlled and validated coral health data assembled from disparate surveys conducted across Hawai'i; ii) facilitate appropriate crediting of data; and iii) encourage future analyses of coral reef health. In this article, we describe and provide data from the HICORDIS database. The data presented in this paper were used in the research article "Satellite SST-based Coral Disease Outbreak Predictions for the Hawaiian Archipelago" (Caldwell et al., 2016) [1].

Many marine pathogens are opportunists, present in the environment, but causing disease only under certain conditions such as immunosuppression due to environmental stress or host factors such as age. In the temperate eelgrass Zostera marina, the opportunistic labyrinthulomycete pathogen Labyrinthula zosterae is present in many populations and occasionally causes severe epidemics of wasting disease; however, risk factors associated with these epidemics are unknown. We conducted both field surveys and experimental manipulations to examine the effect of leaf age (inferred from leaf size) on wasting disease prevalence and severity in Z. marina across sites in the San Juan Archipelago, Washington, USA. We confirmed that lesions observed in the field were caused by active Labyrinthula infections both by identifying the etiologic agent through histology and by performing inoculations with cultures of Labyrinthula spp. isolated from observed lesions. We found that disease prevalence increased at shallower depths and with greater leaf size at all sites, and this effect was more pronounced at declining sites. Experimental inoculations with 2 strains of L. zosterae confirmed an increased susceptibility of older leaves to infection. Overall, this pattern suggests that mature beds and shallow beds of eelgrass may be especially susceptible to outbreaks of wasting disease. The study highlights the importance of considering host and environmental factors when evaluating risk of disease from opportunistic pathogens.

One prominent hypothesis regarding climate change and scleractinian corals is that thermal stress compromises immune competence. To test this hypothesis we tracked how the immune defenses of bleached, apparently healthy and yellow band disease (YBD) diseased Montastraea faveolata colonies varied with natural thermal stress in southwestern Puerto Rico. Colonies were monitored for 21 mo from the peak of the bleaching event in October 2005 to August 2007. Since sea surface temperature was significantly higher in summer and fall 2005 than 2006, year of collection was used as a proxy for temperature stress, and colony fragments collected in 2005 were compared with those collected in 2006. Mortality rate was high (43% overall) and all colonies (except one) either died or became infected with YBD by August 2007. YBD-infected tissue did not bleach (i.e. expel zooxanthellae) during the 2005 bleaching event, even when healthy tissue of these colonies bleached. Immune activity was assayed by measuring prophenoloxidase (PPO), peroxidase (POX), lysozyme-like (LYS) and antibacterial (AB) activity. Immune activity was variable between all coral samples, but there was a significant elevation of PPO activity in bleached colonies collected in 2005 relative to apparently healthy and YBD-diseased corals in 2006. In YBD-diseased colonies, LYS and AB activity were elevated in both healthy and infected tissue, indicating a systemic response; activity levels in these colonies were higher compared to those that appeared healthy. In both these immune parameters, there was a trend for suppression of activity in corals that were bleached in 2005. These data, while complicated by between-genet variability, illustrate the complex interaction between disease and temperature stress on immune function.