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Objectives: US community pharmacies are a unique and underused health service setting for identifying and potentially intervening with patients at risk of opioid overdose or opioid use disorder with evidence-based practices such as screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT). The aim of our study was to assess the feasibility of implementing SBIRT in community pharmacies in an urban county in terms of engagement, reach, and equity across the cascade of pharmacy screening and care., Methods: Patients aged 18 years or older receiving a schedule II or III opioid prescription at 1 of 17 participating community pharmacies in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, were invited to engage in SBIRT as part of Project Lifeline-II from June 2020 through January 2023. Participants completed a prescreen and/or a full screen. We calculated the percentage of patients who participated across the cascade of pharmacy screening and care, overall and by sex (male and female) and race (Black and White)., Results: During the study period, 1952 unique adults (79.6%) were screened at least once (52.1% female; 58.0% White, 30.7% Black). Patients who identified as male (vs female) and Black (vs White) were more likely to have a positive prescreen (14.7% male vs 9.8% female; 16.4% Black vs 9.5% White), receive and complete a full screen (82.7% male vs 80.0% female; 83.6% Black vs 78.4% White), and score positively on the full screen (26.6% male vs 20.4% female; 26.8% Black vs 21.9% White)., Conclusion: Although additional research is needed to characterize the full effect of Project Lifeline-II on patient outcomes, our findings help reinforce the benefits of multipronged public health initiatives that include community pharmacists to address the substance use disorder crisis in the United States., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting InterestsThe authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Background: Quantifying the economic burden of cardiovascular disease and stroke over the coming decades may inform policy, health system, and community-level interventions for prevention and treatment., Methods: We used nationally representative health, economic, and demographic data to project health care costs attributable to key cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia) and conditions (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation) through 2050. The human capital approach was used to estimate productivity losses from morbidity and premature mortality due to cardiovascular conditions., Results: One in 3 US adults received care for a cardiovascular risk factor or condition in 2020. Annual inflation-adjusted (2022 US dollars) health care costs of cardiovascular risk factors are projected to triple between 2020 and 2050, from $400 billion to $1344 billion. For cardiovascular conditions, annual health care costs are projected to almost quadruple, from $393 billion to $1490 billion, and productivity losses are projected to increase by 54%, from $234 billion to $361 billion. Stroke is projected to account for the largest absolute increase in costs. Large relative increases among the Asian American population (497%) and Hispanic American population (489%) reflect the projected increases in the size of these populations., Conclusions: The economic burden of cardiovascular risk factors and overt cardiovascular disease in the United States is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades. Development and deployment of cost-effective programs and policies to promote cardiovascular health are urgently needed to rein in costs and to equitably enhance population health.

Background: Cardiovascular disease and stroke are common and costly, and their prevalence is rising. Forecasts on the prevalence of risk factors and clinical events are crucial., Methods: Using the 2015 to March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimated trends in prevalence for cardiovascular risk factors based on adverse levels of Life's Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke. We projected through 2050, overall and by age and race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence and demographics., Results: We estimate that among adults, prevalence of hypertension will increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050. Diabetes (16.3% to 26.8%) and obesity (43.1% to 60.6%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (45.8% to 24.0%). The prevalences of poor diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are estimated to improve over time, whereas inadequate sleep will worsen. Prevalences of coronary disease (7.8% to 9.2%), heart failure (2.7% to 3.8%), stroke (3.9% to 6.4%), atrial fibrillation (1.7% to 2.4%), and total cardiovascular disease (11.3% to 15.0%) will rise. Clinical CVD will affect 45 million adults, and CVD including hypertension will affect more than 184 million adults by 2050 (>61%). Similar trends are projected in children. Most adverse trends are projected to be worse among people identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic., Conclusions: The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years. Clinical and public health interventions are needed to effectively manage, stem, and even reverse these adverse trends.

Background: Opioid use disorder (OUD) imposes significant costs on state and local governments. Medicaid expansion may lead to a reduction in the cost burden of OUD to the state., Methods: We estimated the health care, criminal justice and child welfare costs, and tax revenue losses, attributable to OUD and borne by the state of North Carolina in 2022, and then estimated changes in the same domains following Medicaid expansion in North Carolina (adopted in December 2023). Analyses used existing literature on the national and state-level costs attributable to OUD to estimate individual-level health care, criminal justice, and child welfare system costs, and lost tax revenues. We combined Individual-level costs and prevalence estimates to estimate costs borne by the state before Medicaid expansion. Changes in costs after expansion were computed based on a) medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) access for new enrollees and b) shifting of responsibility for some health care costs from the state to the federal government. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for the impact of parameter uncertainty. Dollar estimates are from the 2022 price year, and costs following the first year were discounted at 3 %., Results: In 2022, North Carolina incurred costs of $749 million (95 % credible interval [CI]: $305 M-$1,526 M) associated with OUD (53 % in health care, 36 % in criminal justice, 7 % in lost tax revenue, and 4 % in child welfare costs). Expanding Medicaid lowered the cost burden of OUD incurred by the state. The state was predicted to save an estimated $72 million per year (95 % CI: $6 M-$241 M) for the first two years and $30 million per year (95 % CI: -$28 M-$176 M) in subsequent years. Over five years, savings totaled $224 million (95 % CI: -$47 M-$949 M)., Conclusion: Medicaid expansion has the potential to decrease the burden of OUD in North Carolina, and policymakers should expedite its implementation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest There are no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Opioid overdose has claimed the lives of over 340,000 Americans in the last decade. Over that same period, policymakers have taken steps to increase the availability of naloxone-an opioid antagonist used to rescue overdose victims-to people in the community. Previous studies, most of which have examined the effects of state laws designed to facilitate access to naloxone, have reached mixed conclusions about the effects of naloxone access on fatal and non-fatal overdoses. This paper exploits a unique policy experiment provided by two naloxone giveaways intended to increase naloxone possession among the general public in Pennsylvania to estimate the causal impact of naloxone distribution on fatal overdoses and opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find evidence that opioid overdose deaths fell immediately following the first giveaway but increased following the second giveaway and discuss these apparently contradictory findings in the context of the changing composition of the opioid supply. I also find some evidence of a decline in opioid overdose-related ED visits following the giveaways. This study is the first to examine the effects of untargeted naloxone distribution and has implications for other novel, naloxone distribution efforts currently underway., (© 2023 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Most clinical studies of alcohol use disorder (AUD) treatment have short follow-up periods, underestimating the full benefits of alcohol treatment. Furthermore, clinical studies only consider one treatment cycle and do not account for the need for multiple episodes to treat a chronic recurrent condition., Methods: A validated microsimulation model of the long-term drinking patterns of people with AUD in the United States simulated 10,000 individuals resembling those from a large clinical trial. The model was used to assess the impact of (1) 1-year, 5-year, and lifetime horizon on alcohol treatment cost-effectiveness estimates and (2) no, one, two, four, and unlimited additional treatment episodes on alcohol treatment cost-effectiveness estimates. Model outcomes included healthcare costs, crime costs, labor market productivity, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), alcohol-related hospitalizations, and deaths. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted for two perspectives: a healthcare perspective that included costs from hospitalization and AUD treatment, and a broader societal perspective that also included crime costs and productivity., Results: The incremental cost per additional QALY gained for alcohol treatment compared with no treatment decreased from $55,590 after 1 year to $78 when healthcare costs and QALYs were tracked over the lifetime, that is, treatment became more cost effective. Treatment was cost saving for any time frame when the impacts on crime and labor productivity were also accounted for in a societal perspective. Access to multiple treatment episodes dominated (i.e., it was more effective and less costly) than no-treatment and one-episode scenarios. From a healthcare perspective, incremental costs per additional QALY for increasing from a maximum of two to four treatment episodes was $499 and from four to unlimited episodes was $5049. The unlimited treatment scenario dominated all others from a societal perspective. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses., Conclusions: A long-term perspective and multiple episodes of alcohol treatment improve cost-effectiveness estimates. When societal impacts are included, alcohol treatment is cost saving. Results support the value of alcohol treatment., (© 2023 Research Society on Alcohol.)

Background and Aims: Alcohol consumption increased in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and risky drinking are linked to harmful health effects. This paper aimed to project future health and cost impacts of shifts in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic., Design: An individual-level simulation model of the long-term drinking patterns for people with life-time AUD was used to simulate 10 000 individuals and project model outcomes to the estimated 25.9 million current drinkers with life-time AUD in the United States. The model considered three scenarios: (1) no change (counterfactual for comparison); (2) increased drinking levels persist for 1 year ('increase-1') and (3) increased drinking levels persist for 5 years ('increase-5')., Setting: United States., Participants: Current drinkers with life-time AUD., Measurements: Life expectancy [life-years (LYs)], quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), alcohol-related hospitalizations and associated hospitalization costs and alcohol-related deaths, during a 5-year period., Findings: Short-term increases in alcohol consumption (increase-1 scenario) resulted in a loss of 79 000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI]) 26 000-201 000] LYs, a loss of 332 000 (104 000-604 000) QALYs and 295 000 (82 000-501 000) more alcohol-related hospitalizations, costing an additional $5.4 billion ($1.5-9.3 billion) over 5 years. Hospitalizations for cirrhosis of the liver accounted for approximately $3.0 billion ($0.9-4.8 billion) in hospitalization costs, more than half the increase across all alcohol-related conditions. Health and cost impacts were more pronounced for older age groups (51+), women and non-Hispanic black individuals. Increasing the duration of pandemic-driven increases in alcohol consumption in the increase-5 scenario resulted in larger impacts., Conclusions: Simulations show that if the increase in alcohol consumption observed in the United States in the first year of the pandemic continues, alcohol-related mortality, morbidity and associated costs will increase substantially over the next 5 years., (© 2022 Society for the Study of Addiction.)

Introduction: Alcohol consumption and risky drinking behavior increased in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, but it is not known if and for whom those changes were sustained over the longer term. This study analyzes longitudinal data on drinking patterns during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States., Methods: A nationally representative longitudinal survey was used to assess alcohol consumption patterns among respondents 21 years and older who reported drinking between February and November 2020 (N = 557) overall and by subgroups., Results: Compared with February, drinks per month in April and November 2020 significantly ( P ≤ 0.01) increased by 36% and 38%, respectively. The proportion exceeding drinking guidelines significantly increased by 27% and 39%, and increases for binge drinking were 26% and 30% (both P = 0.01). February to November increases in proportion exceeding drinking guidelines were significantly larger for women (54% increase) than for men (32%), and for Black (508%) than for White respondents (16%). Drinks per month significantly increased more for respondents with children in the household (64%) than for those without children (20%). There also was a significantly larger increase in drinks per month for those who reported drinking to cope (57% increase) and those who reported drinking for enhancement (40%) than for those who did not., Conclusions: Self-reported alcohol consumption and risky drinking patterns increased during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Monitoring alcohol consumption changes, with a focus on marginalized groups, is warranted to plan behavioral health services and inform prevention for future pandemics., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Society of Addiction Medicine.)

Objective: Medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is effective but underused. Measuring the percentage of a provider's patients with an opioid use disorder (OUD) who receive MOUD may drive quality improvement and stimulate greater use of medications. This study introduces and tests a provider-level measure of MOUD receipt., Methods: The study used claims and enrollment data from 32 states in the 2014 Medicaid Analytic Extract to measure the proportion of a provider's patients who received MOUD within 30 days of their OUD diagnosis. The research team assessed measure reliability with several tests to establish the effect of provider on MOUD receipt; and assessed the validity by correlation with a measure of emergency department visits or hospitalizations related to substance use., Results: The sample included 434,484 individuals treated for OUD by one or more of 9398 providers. The mean provider score was 38 %, indicating that 38 % of the average provider's patients received an MOUD within 30 days of an OUD diagnosis (44 % for clinicians [N = 5344] and 31 % for facilities [N = 4054]). Provider performance varied considerably. The interquartile ranges were 11 %-79 % and 9 %-45 % among clinicians and facilities, respectively. The measure reliably distinguished between lower- and higher-performing providers and demonstrated convergent validity, as indicated by a significant and moderately sized negative correlation between MOUD receipt and substance use-related hospitalizations or emergency department visits., Conclusions: The measure may help to improve access to MOUD and OUD outcomes by identifying providers who could benefit from technical assistance, quality improvement initiatives, and resources to expand MOUD prescribing., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Abstinence has historically been considered the target outcome for alcohol use disorder (AUD) treatment, yet recent work has found drinking reductions after AUD treatment, as measured by World Health Organization (WHO) risk drinking levels, are associated with meaningful improvements in functioning, physical health, and quality of life., Objectives: This study extends previous analyses of AUD treatment outcomes by estimating the association between changes in WHO risk drinking levels (very high, high, medium, and low, based on average daily alcohol consumption) and healthcare costs., Methods: Secondary data analysis of the COMBINE study, a multisite randomized clinical trial of acamprosate, naltrexone and behavioral interventions for AUD. Generalized gamma regression models were used to estimate relationships between WHOrisk drinking level reductions over the course of treatment and healthcare costs in the year after treatment (N = 964) and up to 3 years following treatment (N = 651)., Results: SustainedWHOrisk drinking reductions of 2 or more levels throughout treatment were associated with 52.0% lower healthcare costs ( P < 0.001) in the year following treatment, and 44.0% lower costs ( P < 0.0025) over 3 years. A reduction of exactly 1 level was associated with 34.8% lower costs over 3 years, which was not significant ( P = 0.05). Cost reductions were driven by lower inpatient behavioral health and emergency department utilization., Conclusions: Reduction in WHO risk drinking levels of at least 2 levels was associated with lower healthcare costs over 1 and 3 years. Our results add to literature showing drinking reductions are associated with improvement in health., Competing Interests: The authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021 American Society of Addiction Medicine.)

Background and Aims: Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality., Approach and Results: We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short- and long-term effect of increased drinking during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012. We modeled short- and long-term outcomes of current drinking patterns during COVID-19 (status quo) using survey data of changes in alcohol consumption in a nationally representative sample between February and November 2020. We compared these outcomes with a counterfactual scenario wherein no COVID-19 occurs and drinking patterns do not change. One-year increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to result in 8000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7500-8600) additional ALD-related deaths, 18,700 (95% UI, 17,600-19,900) cases of decompensated cirrhosis, and 1000 (95% UI, 1000-1100) cases of HCC, and 8.9 million disability-adjusted life years between 2020 and 2040. Between 2020 and 2023, alcohol consumption changes due to COVID-19 will lead to 100 (100-200) additional deaths and 2800 (2700-2900) additional decompensated cirrhosis cases. A sustained increase in alcohol consumption for more than 1 year could result in additional morbidity and mortality., Conclusions: A short-term increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic can substantially increase long-term ALD-related morbidity and mortality. Our findings highlight the need for individuals and policymakers to make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of high-risk alcohol drinking in the United States., (© 2021 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Objective: The authors aimed to describe the development and testing of quality measures included in a public-facing addiction treatment facility search engine., Methods: An addiction treatment facility survey was created that queried providers in six U.S. states about whether they offered the services and used the processes identified by federal agencies and nonprofit organizations as signs of higher-quality addiction treatment. Four insurance claims-based quality measures were created to capture the percentage of a provider's patients with opioid use disorder receiving opioid use disorder medications, who filled prescriptions for such medication for at least 180 days, who received follow-up care after treatment for substance use disorder in inpatient or residential settings, or who had a substance use disorder-related hospitalization or emergency department visit. A patient experience-of-care survey captured patients' perceptions of the quality of the addiction treatment. The project was undertaken from November 2018 through July 2020., Results: The authors tested the measures by using 1,245 facility surveys, 7,970 patients' experience-of-care surveys, and four claims-based measures submitted by 129, 136, 283, and 408 addiction treatment providers. Statistical testing demonstrated that the quality measures were reliable and valid. The quality measure scores varied among providers, capturing a wide performance range. A public website containing quality measures launched in July 2020 in the six states and has been accessed by thousands of consumers., Conclusions: This study developed valid, reliable, and useful addiction treatment quality measures. Dissemination of these measures may help consumers select among providers and help providers, policy makers, and payers improve quality.

Objectives: Excessive alcohol use is a serious and growing public health problem. Alcoholic beverage sales in the United States increased greatly immediately after the stay-at-home orders and relaxing of alcohol restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not known to what degree alcohol consumption changed. This study assesses differences in alcohol drinking patterns before and after the enactment of stay-at-home orders., Methods: In May 2020, a cross-sectional online survey of 993 individuals using a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the US population aged 21 and older was used to assess alcohol drinking patterns before (February, 2020) and after (April, 2020) the enactment of stay-at-home orders among those who consumed alcohol in February, 2020 (n = 555). Reported differences in alcohol consumption were computed, and associations between differences in consumption patterns and individual characteristics were examined., Results: Compared to February, respondents reported consuming more drinks per day in April (+29%, P < 0.001), and a greater proportion reported exceeding recommended drinking limits (+20%, P < 0.001) and binge drinking (+21%, P = 0.001) in April. These differences were found for all sociodemographic subgroups assessed. February to April differences in the proportion exceeding drinking limits were larger for women than men (P = 0.026) and for Black, non-Hispanic people than White, non-Hispanic people (P = 0.028)., Conclusions: There is an association among the COVID-19 pandemic, the public health response to it, changes in alcohol policy, and alcohol consumption. Public health monitoring of alcohol consumption during the pandemic is warranted., Competing Interests: Supported by the authors’ employing organization, RTI International. The funding agreement ensured the authors’ independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, and writing and publishing the article. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of RTI International. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2020 American Society of Addiction Medicine.)

Aims: To estimate US population health utilities for subgroups defined by alcohol use disorder (AUD) status and consumption level., Design: Cross-sectional survey., Setting: Community settings in the United States (i.e. excluding institutional settings)., Participants: A total of 36,042 adults (age 18+) in non-institutional settings in the United States., Measurements: We used 12-item Short Form Survey (SF-12) data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III to calculate mean Short Form-6 dimension (SF-6D) utility scores across World Health Organization alcohol consumption risk levels-very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk and an additional abstinent level-for three groups: (1) the general population (n = 36,042), (2) individuals with life-time AUD (n = 9925) and (3) individuals with current AUD (n = 5083), and assessed minimally important differences (MIDs) between consumption levels. Each group is a subset of the previous group., Findings: The general population's mean SF-6D utility was higher than that of individuals with life-time or current AUD across all consumption risk levels (0.79 versus 0.76 for both AUD groups). For all groups, SF-6D utilities increased as consumption risk level decreased to non-abstinent levels, and reducing consumption from very high risk to any lower level was associated with a statistically significant and meaningful improvement in utility. For individuals with life-time or current AUD, becoming abstinent from high-, medium- and low-risk levels was associated with significantly and meaningfully worse utilities., Conclusions: Higher alcohol consumption risk levels appear to be associated with lower health index scores for the general population and individuals with a history of alcohol use disorder, meaning that higher alcohol consumption is associated with worse health-related quality of life., (© 2020 Society for the Study of Addiction.)

Objectives: Several evidence-based interventions exist for people who misuse opioids, but there is limited guidance on optimal intervention selection. Economic evaluations using simulation modeling can guide the allocation of resources and help tackle the opioid crisis. This study reviews methods employed by economic evaluations using computer simulations to investigate the health and economic effects of interventions meant to address opioid misuse., Methods: We conducted a systematic mapping review of studies that used simulation modeling to support the economic evaluation of interventions targeting prevention, treatment, or management of opioid misuse or its direct consequences (ie, overdose). We searched 6 databases and extracted information on study population, interventions, costs, outcomes, and economic analysis and modeling approaches., Results: Eighteen studies met the inclusion criteria. All of the studies considered only one segment of the continuum of care. Of the studies, 13 evaluated medications for opioid use disorder, and 5 evaluated naloxone distribution programs to reduce overdose deaths. Most studies estimated incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-years and used health system and/or societal perspectives. Models were decision trees (n = 4), Markov (n = 10) or semi-Markov models (n = 3), and microsimulations (n = 1). All of the studies assessed parameter uncertainty though deterministic and/or probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 4 conducted formal calibration, only 2 assessed structural uncertainty, and only 1 conducted expected value of information analyses. Only 10 studies conducted validation., Conclusions: Future economic evaluations should consider synergies between interventions and examine combinations of interventions to inform optimal policy response. They should also more consistently conduct model validation and assess the value of further research., (Copyright © 2020 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The introduction of abuse-deterrent OxyContin in 2010 was intended to reduce its misuse by making it more tamper resistant. However, some studies have suggested that this reformulation might have had unintended consequences, such as increases in heroin-related deaths. We used the 2005-2014 cross-sectional U.S. National Survey on Drug Use and Health to explore the impact of this reformulation on intermediate outcomes that precede heroin-related deaths for individuals with a history of OxyContin misuse. Our study sample consisted of adults who misused any prescription pain reliever prior to the reformulation of OxyContin (n = 81,400). Those who misused OxyContin prior to the reformulation were considered the exposed group and those who misused other prescription pain relievers prior to the reformulation were considered the unexposed group. We employed multivariate logistic regression under a difference-in-differences framework to examine the effect of the reformulation on five dichotomous outcomes: prescription pain reliever misuse; prescription pain reliever use disorder; heroin use; heroin use disorder; and heroin initiation. We found a net reduction in the odds of prescription pain reliever misuse (OR:0.791, p < 0.001) and heroin initiation (OR:0.422, p = 0.011) after the reformulation for the exposed group relative to the unexposed group. We found no statistically significant effects of the reformulation on prescription pain reliever use disorder (OR: 0.934, p = 0.524), heroin use (OR: 1.014p = 0.941), and heroin use disorder (OR: 1.063, p = 0.804). Thus, the reformulation of OxyContin appears to have reduced prescription pain reliever misuse without contributing to relatively greater new heroin use among those who misused OxyContin prior to the reformulation., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background. There is a lack of data on alcohol consumption over time. This study characterizes the long-term drinking patterns of people with lifetime alcohol use disorders who have engaged in treatment or informal care. Methods. We developed multinomial logit models using the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) to estimate short-term transition probabilities (TPs) among the 4 World Health Organization drinking risk levels (low, medium, high, and very high risk) and abstinence by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. We applied an optimization algorithm to convert 3-year TPs from NESARC to 1-year TPs, then used simulated annealing to calibrate TPs to a propensity-scored matched set of participants derived from a separate 16-year study of alcohol consumption. We validated the resulting long-term TPs using NESARC-III, a cross-sectional study conducted on a different cohort. Results. Across 24 demographic groups, the 1-year probability of remaining in the same state averaged 0.93, 0.81, 0.49, 0.51, and 0.63 for abstinent, low, medium, high, and very high-risk states, respectively. After calibration to the 16-year study data ( N = 420), resulting TPs produced state distributions that hit the calibration target. We find that the abstinent or low-risk states are very stable, and the annual probability of leaving the very high-risk state increases by about 20 percentage points beyond 8 years. Limitations. TPs for some demographic groups had small cell sizes. The data used to calibrate long-term TPs are based on a geographically narrow study. Conclusions. This study is the first to characterize long-term drinking patterns by combining short-term representative data with long-term data on drinking behaviors. Current research is using these patterns to estimate the long-term cost effectiveness of alcohol treatment.

State policies pertaining to prenatal substance use have important implications for health outcomes of pregnant women and their infants. However, little is known about the impact of the various types of state-level prenatal substance use policies (i.e., treatment and supportive services; criminal justice initiatives; and health care provider reporting requirements) on substance use disorder treatment admissions. Using data from the 2002-2014 Treatment Episode Data Set - Admissions, we exploited state-level variation in the implementation of different types of policies to assess their impact on pregnant women's admission to substance use disorder treatment. The study found that state-level prenatal substance use policies focused only on the criminal justice sector were negatively associated with the proportion of women of reproductive age who were pregnant upon admission to treatment. Additionally, the implementation of policies that engaged all three sectors was positively associated with the proportion of women of reproductive age who were pregnant upon admission to treatment. These results were consistent across age groups and for both non-Hispanic white women and women of other racial/ethnic groups. The findings imply that states with cross-sector policy engagement around prenatal substance use and policies that take a multifaceted, comprehensive approach are more likely to see an increase in admissions to substance use disorder treatment during pregnancy., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Objective: To estimate the cost and return on investment (ROI) of an intervention targeting work-family conflict (WFC) in the extended care industry., Methods: Costs to deliver the intervention during a group-randomized controlled trial were estimated, and data on organizational costs-presenteeism, health care costs, voluntary termination, and sick time-were collected from interviews and administrative data. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the intervention's impact on organizational costs. Combined, these results produced ROI estimates. A cluster-robust confidence interval (CI) was estimated around the ROI estimate., Results: The per-participant cost of the intervention was $767. The ROI was -1.54 (95% CI: -4.31 to 2.18). The intervention was associated with a $668 reduction in health care costs (P < 0.05)., Conclusions: This paper builds upon and expands prior ROI estimation methods to a new setting.

In the United States, nonmedical prescription opioid use is a major public health concern. Various policy initiatives have been undertaken to tackle this crisis, including state prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs). This study uses the 2004-2014 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) and exploits state-level variation in the timing of PDMP implementation and PDMP characteristics to investigate whether PDMPs are associated with a reduction in prescription opioid misuse or whether they have the unintended consequence of increasing heroin use. In addition, the study examines the impact of PDMPs on the availability of opioids from various sources. The study finds no effect of PDMP status on various measures of nonmedical prescription opioid use (abuse, dependence, and initiation), but finds evidence of a reduction in the number of days of opioid misuse in the past year. The study also finds that implementation of PDMP was not associated with an increase in heroin use or initiation, but was associated with an increase in number of days of heroin use in the past year. Findings also suggest that PDMPs were associated with a significant decline in doctor shopping among individuals without increasing reliance on illegal sources (e.g., drug dealers, stealing, etc.) or social sources (friends or relatives) as a means of obtaining opioids. The President's FY2017 budget proposed the allocation of $1.1 billion in an effort to reduce prescription drug misuse, and highlighted the use of PDMPs as a policy tool. This study documents evidence that PDMPs might be having measurable impact., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Aims: To examine the conditions under which Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment (SBIRT) programs can be sustained by health insurance payments., Design: A mathematical model was used to estimate the number of patients needed for revenues to exceed costs., Setting: Three medical settings in the United States were examined: in-patient, out-patient and emergency department. Components of SBIRT were delivered by combinations of health-care practitioners (generalists) and behavioral health specialists., Participants: Practitioners in seven SBIRT programs who received grants from the US Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)., Measurements: Program costs and revenues were measured using data from grantees. Patient flows were measured from administrative data and adjusted with prevalence and screening estimates from the literature., Findings: SBIRT can be sustained through health insurance reimbursement in out-patient and emergency department settings in most staffing mixes. To sustain SBIRT in in-patient programs, a patient flow larger than the national average may be needed; if that flow is achieved, the range of screens required to maintain a surplus is narrow. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the results are very sensitive to changes in the proportion of insured patients., Conclusions: Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment programs in the United States can be sustained by health insurance payments under a variety of staffing models. Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment programs can be sustained only in an in-patient setting with above-average patient flow (more than 2500 screens). Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment programs in out-patient and emergency department settings can be sustained with below-average patient flows (fewer than 125 000 out-patient visits and fewer than 27 000 emergency department visits)., (© 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.)

Aims: Screening and brief intervention for harmful substance use in medical settings is being promoted heavily in the United States. To justify service provision fiscally, the field needs accurate estimates of the number and type of staff required to provide services, and thus the time taken to perform activities used to deliver services. This study analyzed the time spent in activities for the component services of the substance misuse Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment (SBIRT) program implemented in emergency departments, in-patient units and ambulatory clinics., Design: Observers timed activities according to 18 distinct codes among SBIRT practitioners., Setting: Twenty-six US sites within four grantees., Participants: Five hundred and one practitioner-patient interactions; 63 SBIRT practitioners., Measurements: Timing of practitioner activities., Interventions: Delivery of component services of SBIRT., Findings: The mean (standard error) time to deliver services was 1:19 (0:06) for a pre-screen (n = 210), 4:28 (0:24) for a screen (n = 97) and 6:51 (0:38) for a brief intervention (n = 66). Estimates of service duration varied by setting. Overall, practitioners spent 40% of their time supporting SBIRT delivery to patients and 13% of their time delivering services., Conclusions: In the United States, support activities (e.g. reviewing the patient's chart, locating the patient, writing case-notes) for substance abuse Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment require more staff time than delivery of services. Support time for screens and brief interventions in the emergency department/trauma setting was high compared with the out-patient setting., (© 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.)

Background: A challenge for evaluating alcohol treatment efficacy is determining what constitutes a "good" outcome or meaningful improvement. Abstinence at the end of treatment is an unambiguously good outcome; however, a focus on abstinence ignores the potential benefits of patients reducing their drinking to less problematic levels. Patients may be drinking at low-risk levels at the end of treatment but may be high-functioning and impose few social costs. In this study, we estimate the relationship between drinking at the end of COMBINE treatment and subsequent healthcare costs with an emphasis on heavy and nonheavy drinking levels., Methods: Indicators of heavy drinking days (HDDs; 5+ drinks for men, 4+ for women) and nonheavy drinking days (non-HDDs) during the last 30 days of COMBINE treatment were constructed for 748 patients enrolled in the COMBINE Economic Study. Generalized linear models were used to model total costs following COMBINE treatment as a function of drinking indicators. Different model specifications analyzed alternative counts of HDDs (e.g., 1 HDD and 2 to 30 HDDs), and groups having Both non-HDDs and HDDs., Results: Patients with HDDs had 66.4% (p < 0.01) higher healthcare costs than those who were abstinent. Having more than 2 HDDs was associated with the highest costs (75.9%, p < 0.01). Patients with non-HDDs had costs that were not significantly different than abstainers, even if they also had HDDs. However, those with HDDs only had costs 91.7% higher than abstainers (p < 0.01)., Conclusions: Having HDDs at the end of treatment is associated with higher costs. Patients who had Only HDDs at the end of treatment had worse subsequent outcomes than those who had Both non-HDDs and HDDs. These findings offer new context for evaluating treatment outcomes and provide new information on the association of drinking with consequences., (Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.)

Objective: This study examined the relationship between state and local economic conditions and serious psychological distress, substance use disorders, and mental health service utilization among adults in the United States., Methods: Using data from 21,100 adults who responded to the 2008-2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a nationally representative survey of the U.S. civilian noninstitutionalized population living in households, the study used multivariate methods to examine associations between selected macroeconomic conditions and behavioral health outcomes., Results: Living in states in the top three quartiles for serious mortgage delinquency rate and in counties in the top three quartiles for unemployment rate was associated with a lower likelihood of using mental health services among individuals experiencing serious psychological distress (adjusted relative risk [ARR]=.54, .52, and .73, and ARR=.58, .62, and .71, respectively, versus quartile 1). Individual-level characteristics were the primary predictors associated with higher odds of having substance use disorders or experiencing serious psychological distress, but macroeconomic variables were not statistically significant predictors of these outcomes., Conclusions: Both individual-level socioeconomic characteristics and population-level macroeconomic conditions were associated with behavioral health outcomes. Prevalence of serious psychological distress and substance use disorders and use of mental health services varied by economic measure. The findings suggest that access to and availability of mental health services for individuals experiencing serious psychological distress may be more challenging for those who do not have health insurance or who reside in regions with higher rates of mortgage foreclosures or higher rates of unemployment.

Objective: To estimate the return on investment (ROI) of a workplace initiative to reduce work-family conflict in a group-randomized 18-month field experiment in an information technology firm in the United States., Methods: Intervention resources were micro-costed; benefits included medical costs, productivity (presenteeism), and turnover. Regression models were used to estimate the ROI, and cluster-robust bootstrap was used to calculate its confidence interval., Results: For each participant, model-adjusted costs of the intervention were $690 and company savings were $1850 (2011 prices). The ROI was 1.68 (95% confidence interval, -8.85 to 9.47) and was robust in sensitivity analyses., Conclusion: The positive ROI indicates that employers' investment in an intervention to reduce work-family conflict can enhance their business. Although this was the first study to present a confidence interval for the ROI, results are comparable with the literature.

Background: Nonmedical prescription drug use is estimated to be the second most abused category of drugs after marijuana among adolescents. Prescription drugs can be highly addictive and prolonged use can produce neurological changes and physiological dependence and could result in adverse mental health outcomes. This topic is largely unexplored, as current knowledge of possible mechanisms of the linkage between adverse mental health consequences and prescription drug misuse is limited., Aim of the Study: This study explores the relationship between nonmedical use of prescription drugs and depression outcomes among adolescents. Given their complex and confounded relationship, our purpose is to better understand the extent to which nonmedical use of prescription drugs is an antecedent of depressive episodes., Methods: Using data from the 2008-2012 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the study employs a propensity score matching methodology to ascertain whether nonmedical use of prescription drugs is linked to major depressive episodes among adolescents., Results: The results document a positive relationship between nonmedical prescription drug use and major depressive episodes among adolescents. Specifically, the results indicate that adolescents who used prescription drugs non-medically are 33% to 35% more likely to experience major depressive episodes compared to their non-abusing counterparts., Implications for Health Policy: This provides additional evidence about the potential public health consequences of misuse of prescription drugs on adverse mental health outcomes. Given the significant increased risk of major depressive episode among adolescents who use prescription drugs nonmedically, it seems that the prevention of nonmedical prescription drug use warrants the utilization of both educational and public health resources., Implications for Future Research: An important area for future research is to understand how any policy initiatives in this area must strike a balance between the need to minimize the misuse of prescription drugs and the need to ensure access for their legitimate health care use.