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Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread malaria-causing parasite resulting in significant associated global morbidity and mortality. One of the factors driving this widespread phenomenon is the ability of the parasites to remain dormant in the liver. Known as 'hypnozoites', they reside in the liver following an initial exposure, before activating later to cause further infections, referred to as 'relapses'. As around 79-96% of infections are attributed to relapses from activating hypnozoites, we expect it will be highly impactful to apply treatment to target the hypnozoite reservoir (i.e. the collection of dormant parasites) to eliminate P. vivax. Treatment with radical cure, for example tafenoquine or primaquine, to target the hypnozoite reservoir is a potential tool to control and/or eliminate P. vivax. We have developed a deterministic multiscale mathematical model as a system of integro-differential equations that captures the complex dynamics of P. vivax hypnozoites and the effect of hypnozoite relapse on disease transmission. Here, we use our multiscale model to study the anticipated effect of radical cure treatment administered via a mass drug administration (MDA) program. We implement multiple rounds of MDA with a fixed interval between rounds, starting from different steady-state disease prevalences. We then construct an optimisation model with three different objective functions motivated on a public health basis to obtain the optimal MDA interval. We also incorporate mosquito seasonality in our model to study its effect on the optimal treatment regime. We find that the effect of MDA interventions is temporary and depends on the pre-intervention disease prevalence (and choice of model parameters) as well as the number of MDA rounds under consideration. The optimal interval between MDA rounds also depends on the objective (combinations of expected intervention outcomes). We find radical cure alone may not be enough to lead to P. vivax elimination under our mathematical model (and choice of model parameters) since the prevalence of infection eventually returns to pre-MDA levels., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease that, despite intensive control and mitigation initiatives, continues to pose an enormous public health burden. Plasmodium vivax is one of the principal causes of malaria in humans. Antibodies, which play a fundamental role in the host response to P. vivax, are acquired through exposure to the parasite. Here, we introduce a stochastic, within-host model of antibody responses to P. vivax for an individual in a general transmission setting. We begin by developing an epidemiological framework accounting for P. vivax infections resulting from new mosquito bites (primary infections), as well as the activation of dormant-liver stages known as hypnozoites (relapses). By constructing an infinite server queue, we obtain analytic results for the distribution of relapses in a general transmission setting. We then consider a simple model of antibody kinetics, whereby antibodies are boosted with each infection, but are subject to decay over time. By embedding this model for antibody kinetics in the epidemiological framework using a generalised shot noise process, we derive analytic expressions governing the distribution of antibody levels for a single individual in a general transmission setting. Our work provides a means to explore exposure-dependent antibody dynamics for P. vivax, with the potential to address key questions in the context of serological surveillance and acquired immunity.

The Wnt signalling pathway plays an important role in development, disease, and normal tissue function. Mathematical models for Wnt signalling have predominantly focused on quantitatively predicting changes in steady-state β-catenin concentrations (the main downstream protein regulated by canonical Wnt signalling). One of the genes targeted for expression by Wnt/β-catenin signalling is the negative Wnt regulator Axin2. Recently, a number of authors have indicated a potential theoretical role of Axin2 feedback to induce oscillatory behaviour in the pathway and this has been observed in a number of detailed mathematical models. Due to the complexity of these models, the investigations to date have been limited to numerical experiments and parameter sensitivity analyses. In this manuscript, we study the fundamental structure of the dynamical system underlying the Wnt signalling mechanism with Axin2 feedback to gain some insight into why and when oscillations occur in models with this structure. We semi-rigorously analyse three simple models and, for these models, gain deep understanding of the characteristic set of conditions that are necessary and sufficient for oscillations to be induced. We discuss the possible biological consequences of these findings for Wnt signalling pathway oscillations. They include; to promote oscillations (1) Keeping all other parameters constant, the Wnt signal strength should neither be too high or too low but within a single finite window of values, (2) Wnt receptor complexes should fully deactivate Axin rather than temporarily deconstruct it from other scaffold proteins, (3) In the absence of stochastic effects or more complicated mechanisms, a critical delay in Axin2 feedback in the system is necessary, (4) Deactivation of Axin by the Wnt receptor complex needs to be critically efficient relative to β-catenin removal by Axin, and (5) conditions necessary are less strict if Axin2 feedback occurs after a fixed time rather than a Poisson-distributed time with the same average., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In this paper we present a novel method for finding unknown parameters for an unknown morphogen. We postulate the existence of an unknown morphogen in a given three-dimensional domain due to the spontaneous arrangement of a downstream species on the domain boundary for which data is known. Assuming a modified Helmholtz model for the morphogen and that it is produced from a single source in the domain, our method accurately estimates the source location and other model parameters. Notably, our method does not require the forward solution of the model to be computed which can often be a challenge for three-dimensional PDE model parameter fitting. Instead, an extension is made from the problem domain to an infinite domain and the analytic nature of the fundamental solution is exploited. We explore in this manuscript strategies for best conditioning the problem and rigorously explore the accuracy of the method on two test problems. Our tests focus on the effect of source location on accuracy but also the robustness of the algorithm to experimental noise.

Malaria is an infectious disease with an immense global health burden. Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread species of malaria. Relapsing infections, caused by the activation of liver-stage parasites known as hypnozoites, are a critical feature of the epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax. Hypnozoites remain dormant in the liver for weeks or months after inoculation, but cause relapsing infections upon activation. Here, we introduce a dynamic probability model of the activation-clearance process governing both potential relapses and the size of the hypnozoite reservoir. We begin by modelling activation-clearance dynamics for a single hypnozoite using a continuous-time Markov chain. We then extend our analysis to consider activation-clearance dynamics for a single mosquito bite, which can simultaneously establish multiple hypnozoites, under the assumption of independent hypnozoite behaviour. We derive analytic expressions for the time to first relapse and the time to hypnozoite clearance for mosquito bites establishing variable numbers of hypnozoites, both of which are quantities of epidemiological significance. Our results extend those in the literature, which were limited due to an assumption of collective dormancy. Our within-host model can be embedded readily in multiscale models and epidemiological frameworks, with analytic solutions increasing the tractability of statistical inference and analysis. Our work therefore provides a foundation for further work on immune development and epidemiological-scale analysis, both of which are important for achieving the goal of malaria elimination.

This work investigates multi-resolution methodologies for simulating dimer models. The solvent particles which make up the heat bath interact with the monomers of the dimer either through direct collisions (short-range) or through harmonic springs (long-range). Two types of multi-resolution methodologies are considered in detail: (a) describing parts of the solvent far away from the dimer by a coarser approach; (b) describing each monomer of the dimer by using a model with different level of resolution. These methodologies are then used to investigate the effect of a shared heat bath versus two uncoupled heat baths, one for each monomer. Furthermore, the validity of the multi-resolution methods is discussed by comparison to dynamics of macroscopic Langevin equations., Competing Interests: We declare we have no competing interests.

Infections are a common complication of any surgery, often requiring a recovery period in hospital. Supplemental oxygen therapy administered during and immediately after surgery is thought to enhance the immune response to bacterial contamination. However, aerobic bacteria thrive in oxygen-rich environments, and so it is unclear whether oxygen has a net positive effect on recovery. Here, we develop a mathematical model of post-surgery infection to investigate the efficacy of supplemental oxygen therapy on surgical-site infections. A 4-species, coupled, set of non-linear partial differential equations that describes the space-time dependence of neutrophils, bacteria, chemoattractant and oxygen is developed and analysed to determine its underlying properties. Through numerical solutions, we quantify the efficacy of different supplemental oxygen regimes on the treatment of surgical site infections in wounds of different initial bacterial load. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the robustness of the predictions to changes in the model parameters. The numerical results are in good agreement with analyses of the associated well-mixed model. Our model findings provide insight into how the nature of the contaminant and its initial density influence bacterial infection dynamics in the surgical wound., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The immune system mounts a response to an infection by activating T cells. T cell activation occurs when dendritic cells, which have already interacted with the pathogen, scan a T cell that is cognate for (responsive to) the pathogen. This often occurs inside lymph nodes. The time it takes for this scanning event to occur, indeed the probability that it will occur at all, depends on many factors, including the rate that T cells and dendritic cells enter and leave the lymph node as well as the geometry of the lymph node and of course other cellular and molecular parameters. In this paper, we develop a hybrid stochastic-deterministic mathematical model at the tissue scale of the lymph node and simulate dendritic cells and cognate T cells to investigate the most important physiological factors leading to a successful and timely immune response after a vaccination. We use an agent-based model to describe the small population of cognate naive T cells and a partial differential equation description for the concentration of mature dendritic cells. We estimate the model parameters based on the known literature and measurements previously taken in our lab. We perform a parameter sensitivity analysis to quantify the sensitivity of the model results to the parameters. The results show that increasing T cell inflow through high endothelial venules, restricting cellular egress via the efferent lymph and increasing the total dendritic cell count by improving vaccinations are the among the most important physiological factors leading to an improved immune response. We also find that increasing the physical size of lymph nodes improves the overall likelihood that an immune response will take place but has a fairly weak effect on the response rate. The nature of dendritic cell trafficking through the LN (either passive or active transport) seems to have little effect on the overall immune response except if a change in overall egress time is observed., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Congenital abnormalities of the kidney and urinary tract collectively form the most common type of prenatally diagnosed malformations. Whilst many of the crucial genes that direct the kidney developmental program are known, the mechanisms by which kidney organogenesis is achieved is still largely unclear. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model for the localisation of the ureteric bud, the precursor to the ureter and collecting duct system of the kidney. The mathematical model presented fundamentally implicates Schnakenberg-like ligand-receptor Turing patterning as the mechanism by which the ureteric bud is localised on the Wolfian duct as proposed by Menshykaul and Iber (2013). This model explores the specific roles of regulatory proteins GREM1 and BMP as well as the domain properties of GDNF production. Our model demonstrates that this proposed pattern formation mechanism is capable of naturally predicting the phenotypical outcomes of many genetic experiments from the literature. Furthermore, we conclude that whilst BMP inhibits GDNF away from the budding site and GREM1 permits GDNF to signal, GREM1 also stabilises the effect of BMP on GDNF signalling from fluctuations in BMP sensitivity but not signal strength., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Spatial reaction-diffusion models have been employed to describe many emergent phenomena in biological systems. The modelling technique most commonly adopted in the literature implements systems of partial differential equations (PDEs), which assumes there are sufficient densities of particles that a continuum approximation is valid. However, owing to recent advances in computational power, the simulation and therefore postulation, of computationally intensive individual-based models has become a popular way to investigate the effects of noise in reaction-diffusion systems in which regions of low copy numbers exist. The specific stochastic models with which we shall be concerned in this manuscript are referred to as 'compartment-based' or 'on-lattice'. These models are characterized by a discretization of the computational domain into a grid/lattice of 'compartments'. Within each compartment, particles are assumed to be well mixed and are permitted to react with other particles within their compartment or to transfer between neighbouring compartments. Stochastic models provide accuracy, but at the cost of significant computational resources. For models that have regions of both low and high concentrations, it is often desirable, for reasons of efficiency, to employ coupled multi-scale modelling paradigms. In this work, we develop two hybrid algorithms in which a PDE in one region of the domain is coupled to a compartment-based model in the other. Rather than attempting to balance average fluxes, our algorithms answer a more fundamental question: 'how are individual particles transported between the vastly different model descriptions?' First, we present an algorithm derived by carefully redefining the continuous PDE concentration as a probability distribution. While this first algorithm shows very strong convergence to analytical solutions of test problems, it can be cumbersome to simulate. Our second algorithm is a simplified and more efficient implementation of the first, it is derived in the continuum limit over the PDE region alone. We test our hybrid methods for functionality and accuracy in a variety of different scenarios by comparing the averaged simulations with analytical solutions of PDEs for mean concentrations., (© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)

The acceptance of broadband ultrasound attenuation for the assessment of osteoporosis suffers from a limited understanding of ultrasound wave propagation through cancellous bone. It has recently been proposed that the ultrasound wave propagation can be described by a concept of parallel sonic rays. This concept approximates the detected transmission signal to be the superposition of all sonic rays that travel directly from transmitting to receiving transducer. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated. An ultrasound transit time spectrum describes the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit times over the surface of the receiving ultrasound transducer. The aim of this study was to provide a proof of concept that a transit time spectrum may be derived from digital deconvolution of input and output ultrasound signals. We have applied the active-set method deconvolution algorithm to determine the ultrasound transit time spectra in the three orthogonal directions of four cancellous bone replica samples and have compared experimental data with the prediction from the computer simulation. The agreement between experimental and predicted ultrasound transit time spectrum analyses derived from Bland-Altman analysis ranged from 92% to 99%, thereby supporting the concept of parallel sonic rays for ultrasound propagation in cancellous bone. In addition to further validation of the parallel sonic ray concept, this technique offers the opportunity to consider quantitative characterisation of the material and structural properties of cancellous bone, not previously available utilising ultrasound.

Two multiscale (hybrid) stochastic reaction-diffusion models of actin dynamics in a filopodium are investigated. Both hybrid algorithms combine compartment-based and molecular-based stochastic reaction-diffusion models. The first hybrid model is based on the models previously developed in the literature. The second hybrid model is based on the application of a recently developed two-regime method (TRM) to a fully molecular-based model, which is also developed in this paper. The results of hybrid models are compared with the results of the molecular-based model. It is shown that both approaches give comparable results, although the TRM model better agrees quantitatively with the molecular-based model.

The intracellular release of calcium from the endoplasmic reticulum is controlled by ion channels. The resulting calcium signals exhibit a rich spatio-temporal signature, which originates at least partly from microscopic fluctuations. While stochasticity in the gating transition of ion channels has been incorporated into many models, the distribution of calcium is usually described by deterministic reaction-diffusion equations. Here we test the validity of the latter modeling approach by using two different models to calculate the frequency of localized calcium signals (calcium puffs) from clustered IP3 receptor channels. The complexity of the full calcium system is here limited to the basic opening mechanism of the ion channels and, in the mathematical reduction simplifies to the calculation of a first passage time. Two models are then studied: (i) a hybrid model, where channel gating is treated stochastically, while calcium concentration is deterministic and (ii) a fully stochastic model with noisy channel gating and Brownian calcium ion motion. The second model utilises the recently developed two-regime method [M. B. Flegg, S. J. Chapman, and R. Erban, "The two-regime method for optimizing stochastic reaction-diffusion simulations," J. R. Soc., Interface 9, 859-868 (2012)] in order to simulate a large domain with precision required only near the Ca(2+) absorbing channels. The expected time for a first channel opening that results in a calcium puff event is calculated. It is found that for a large diffusion constant, predictions of the interpuff time are significantly overestimated using the model (i) with a deterministic non-spatial calcium variable. It is thus demonstrated that the presence of diffusive noise in local concentrations of intracellular Ca(2+) ions can substantially influence the occurrence of calcium signals. The presented approach and results may also be relevant for other cell-physiological first-passage time problems with small ligand concentration and high cooperativity.

Nonhealing wounds are a major burden for health care systems worldwide. In addition, a patient who suffers from this type of wound usually has a reduced quality of life. While the wound healing process is undoubtedly complex, in this paper we develop a deterministic mathematical model, formulated as a system of partial differential equations, that focusses on an important aspect of successful healing: oxygen supply to the wound bed by a combination of diffusion from the surrounding unwounded tissue and delivery from newly formed blood vessels. While the model equations can be solved numerically, the emphasis here is on the use of asymptotic methods to establish conditions under which new blood vessel growth can be initiated and wound-bed angiogenesis can progress. These conditions are given in terms of key model parameters including the rate of oxygen supply and its rate of consumption in the wound. We use our model to discuss the clinical use of treatments such as hyperbaric oxygen therapy, wound bed debridement, and revascularisation therapy that have the potential to initiate healing in chronic, stalled wounds., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Spatial organization and noise play an important role in molecular systems biology. In recent years, a number of software packages have been developed for stochastic spatio-temporal simulation, ranging from detailed molecular-based approaches to less detailed compartment-based simulations. Compartment-based approaches yield quick and accurate mesoscopic results, but lack the level of detail that is characteristic of the computationally intensive molecular-based models. Often microscopic detail is only required in a small region (e.g. close to the cell membrane). Currently, the best way to achieve microscopic detail is to use a resource-intensive simulation over the whole domain. We develop the two-regime method (TRM) in which a molecular-based algorithm is used where desired and a compartment-based approach is used elsewhere. We present easy-to-implement coupling conditions which ensure that the TRM results have the same accuracy as a detailed molecular-based model in the whole simulation domain. Therefore, the TRM combines strengths of previously developed stochastic reaction-diffusion software to efficiently explore the behaviour of biological models. Illustrative examples and the mathematical justification of the TRM are also presented.

In this paper we report the results of the detailed monitoring and analysis of combustion emissions from fast moving diesel trains. A new highly efficient monitoring methodology is proposed based on the measurements of the total number concentration (TNC) of combustion aerosols at a fixed point (on a bridge overpassing the railway) inside the violently mixing zone created by a fast moving train. Applicability conditions for the proposed methodology are presented, discussed and linked to the formation of the stable and uniform mixing zone. In particular, it is demonstrated that if such a mixing zone is formed, the monitoring results are highly consistent, repeatable (with typically negligible statistical errors and dispersion), stable with respect to the external atmospheric turbulence and result in an unusual pattern of the aerosol evolution with two or three distinct TNC maximums. It is also shown that the stability and uniformity of the created mixing zone (as well as the repeatability of the monitoring results) increase with increasing length of the train (with an estimated critical train length of ~10 carriages, at the speed of ~150km/h). The analysis of the obtained evolutionary dependencies of aerosol TNC suggests that the major possible mechanisms responsible for the formation of the distinct concentration maximums are condensation (the second maximum) and thermal fragmentation of solid nanoparticle aggregates (third maximum). The obtained results and the new methodology will be important for monitoring and analysis of combustion emissions from fast moving trains, and for the determination of the impact of rail networks on the atmospheric environment and human exposure to combustion emissions., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This paper presents a statistical theory of stochastic evaporation and degradation processes in complex polymerlike ring and chain aggregates with multiple degrading bonds between the primary particles (monomers). The exact kinetic solution fully describing fragmentation processes is obtained for such aggregates with arbitrary number of primary particles (monomers) and bonds between them. The effects of additional interaction of multiple bonds with each other is shown to have a drastic impact on the predicted kinetic processes and time-dependent particle size distributions during aggregate degradation. Structural effects associated with different distributions of multiple bonds and bonding configurations in the aggregates are also investigated and shown to have a significant impact on typical fragmentation time and accumulation of fragmenting aggregates in intermediate modes. The developed theory and its results will be important for degradation of multistranded polymers, polymer networks, self-assembling structures, surface nanoclusters and nanotechnology, and formation and evolution of aerosol aggregates resulting from transport and industry emissions.