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Mangrove wetlands are strategic locations for mitigating climate changes. In order to address the harm of rapid climate change to mangrove ecosystems, it is necessary to scientifically predict the fate of mangrove ecosystems, which can be achieved by reconstructing the development history of mangrove forests. This study analyzes the contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter (CMOM) from sediment core F in Phang Nga Province, Thailand by using the endmember mixing model based on stable organic carbon isotopes (δ 13 C org ) and C/N (molar) ratio. The variations of CMOM over the past ∼3195 cal yr BP indicate that mangrove forests underwent three periods of flourishing: ∼3195-2620 cal yr BP, ∼2030-1130 cal yr BP, and ∼410-0 cal yr BP, and two periods of deterioration: ∼2620-2030 cal yr BP and ∼1130-410 cal yr BP. Among the potential factors that might affect the development of mangrove forests, relative sea level (RSL), regional hydrodynamics, and human activities do not have notable effects on mangrove flourishment/deteriorating. However, climate factors, particularly air temperature, rainfall, and sea surface salinity are the main factors influencing the flourishing/deterioration of mangrove forests. In the Andaman Sea, these climatic factors are mainly driven by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM)., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2025. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

We identified a set of bias-corrected and downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models capable of accurately simulating the observed mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall, extreme rain events (EREs) and their respective interannual variability. The future changes in EREs projected by these models for four climate change scenarios-Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were estimated using percentile thresholds. Under the highest emission scenario, SSP5-8.5, at the end of the century, summer monsoon season total rainfall exhibits a 1.1-fold increase, while extreme rainfall intensity demonstrates a more substantial rise of 1.3-fold. The spatial variability of seasonal total rainfall increases by 1.2-fold compared to the baseline period, with an even more pronounced 2.1-fold increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall (R99p). These findings underscore the significant amplification of rainfall variability and intensity under the most extreme climate scenario. The intensity and frequency of very extreme rainfall events (vEREs) were also found to increase, though with a substantial inter-model spread. Under SSP5-8.5, extreme rainfall intensity scales with temperature at 1.5 to 2 times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate. While mid-century scenarios show minimal variations in extreme rainfall intensity from the historical period, end-century projections reveal significant shifts; an increase in north India and a decrease in south India due to cloud-induced cooling effects., Competing Interests: Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2025. The Author(s).)

Hydroclimate will change over Pamirs and its downstream basins (PDB), including Indus River, Tarim River, Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins, in response to the variation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and mid-latitude westerlies. However, the precipitation variation and its mechanism over PDB in the 21st century are yet not fully understood. Here, the best models ensemble selected from 25 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is applied to detect the precipitation variations over PDB in the 21st century. A remarkable dipolar pattern is found in both summer and winter precipitation over PDB, particularly in the central Indus River Basin and upper Amu and Syr Darya Basins. The central Indus River Basin (upper Amu and Syr Darya Basins) will experience an increasingly wet (dry) summer in response to northward ISM and a dry (wet) winter driven by mid-latitude westerlies. The amplifying dipolar pattern of seasonal precipitation thus increases the water resource vulnerability over PDB and emphasizes the role of Pamirs in modulating the water resources over surrounding basins, especially the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins in the future. The findings underscore the need for prioritizing policies by considering the impacts of precipitation seasonality on social planning., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Records of element ratios obtained from the Maldives Inner Sea sediments provide a detailed view on how the Indian Monsoon System has varied at high-resolution time scales. Here, we present records from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1471 based on a refined chronology through the past 550,000 years. The record's high resolution and a proper approach to set the chronology allowed us to reconstruct changes in the Indian Monsoon System on a scale of anomalies and to verify their relationships with established records from the East Asian Monsoon System. On the basis of Fe/sum and Fe/Si records, it can be demonstrated that the Asia continental aridity tracks sea-level changes, while the intensity of winter monsoon winds responds to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Furthermore, the anomalies of continental aridity and intensity of winter monsoon winds at millennial-scale events exhibit power in the precession band, nearly in antiphase with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These observations indicate that the insolation drove the anomalies in the Indian Summer Monsoon. The good correspondence between our record and the East Asian monsoon anomaly records suggests the occurrence of anomalous widespread arid events in Asia., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.)

Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system. In this paper, the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed, with a focus on the past several years. The achievements are summarized into the following topics: (1) the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon; (2) the East Asian summer monsoon; (3) the East Asian winter monsoon; and (4) the Indian summer monsoon. Specifically, new results are highlighted, including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula, and South China Sea; the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020, which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes; the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions, which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability (mostly the Arctic Oscillation); and the accelerated warming over South Asia, which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming, is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999. A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability., (© Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023.)

Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period ( ca . since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region's current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.

SignificanceUnderstanding the drivers of South Asian monsoon intensity is pivotal for improving climate forecasting under global warming scenarios. Solar insolation is assumed to be the dominant driver of monsoon variability in warm climate regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data. We report a South Asian monsoon rainfall record spanning the last ∼130 kyr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river catchment. Our multiproxy data reveal that the South Asian monsoon was weaker during the Last Interglacial (130 to 115 ka)-despite higher insolation-than during the Holocene (11.6 ka to present), thus questioning the widely accepted model assumption. Our work implies that Indian Ocean warming may increase the occurrence of severe monsoon failures in South Asia.

We used stable water isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to identify and estimate the seasonal contribution of precipitation to the regional hydrology of Sindh and Rambiara catchments of western Himalayas. The different source waters exhibit significant spatio-temporal variations that correspond to the change in seasonal meteorology, precipitation form and moisture sources. The two-component hydrograph separation based on d -excess suggests that the western disturbances (WD) contribute dominantly (76 ± 4 %) to the regional hydrology, compared to Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (24 ± 4 %). A comparison of d -excess values of WD and ISM indicates the groundwater consists of 90 ± 3 % WD sources and 10 ± 2 % ISM sources, signifying distinct seasonal variations in groundwater recharge sources. The sine wave model results showed that the annual mean residence time (MRT) of groundwater for the Sindh catchment (5.8 ± 0.6 months) is greater than the Rambiara groundwater (3.6 ± 0.5 months). The lower isotope values observed in the river water than in the precipitation suggest its origin from the snowmelt. This study provides valuable insights into the hydrological processes operating in the high altitude Himalayan catchments to facilitate the improved understanding of runoff generation mechanisms and water resource management in future climate change scenarios.

The Sutlej River basin of the western Himalaya (study area), owing to its unique geographical disposition, receives precipitation from both the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the Westerlies. The characteristic timing and intensity of the ISM and Westerlies, leaves a distinct footprint on the sediment load of the River. Analysis with the last forty years data, shows an increasing trend for temperature. While for precipitation during the same period, the Spiti watershed on the west has highest monthly accumulated precipitation with long term declining trend, in contrast to the other areas where an increasing trend has been observed. Thus, to probe the hydrological variability and the seasonal attributes, governed by the Westerlies and ISM in the study area, we analyzed precipitation, temperature, snow cover area (in %), discharge, suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and suspended sediment load (SSL) for the period 2004 - 2008. To accomplish the task, we used the available data of five hydrological stations located in the study area. Inter-annual shift in peak discharge during the monsoon period is controlled by the variation in precipitation, snow melt, glacier melt and temperature. Besides seasonal variability has been observed in generation of the sediments and its delivery to the river. Our analysis indicates, dominance of the Westerlies footprints in the hydrological parameters of the Spiti region, towards western part of the study area. While, it is observed that the hydrology of the Khab towards eastern part of the study area shows dominance of ISM. Further downstream, the hydrology of Nathpa station also shows dominance of ISM. It also emerged out that the snowmelt contribution to the River flow is mostly during the initial part, at the onset of the monsoon, while for rest and major part of the summer monsoon season, the River flow is augmented by the precipitation, glacial melt and some snow melt. We observed, that the SSC increases exponentially in response to increase in temperature and correlates positively with River discharge. The average daily SSL in the summer monsoon is many times more than that in the winter monsoon. The downstream decrease in steepness of the sediment rating curve is attributed to either a change in the River-sediment dynamics or on account of the anthropogenic forcing. The top 1% of the extreme summer monsoon events (only 4 events) in our study area contribute up to 45% of SSL to the total sediment load budget. It has also been observed that the River-sediment dynamics in the upstream catchments are more vulnerable and sensitive to the extreme events in comparison to the downstream catchments. The present study for the first time gives a holistic insight in to the complex dynamics of the hydrological processes operational in the study area. The research findings would be crucial for managing the water resources of the region and the linked water and food security., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Global climate change and human activities have significantly impacted lake ecosystems at an accelerating rate in recent decades, but the differences between the responses of lake ecosystems to these two stressors remain unclear. Thus an improved understanding of the long-term influences of climatic and anthropogenic disturbances is necessary for the management of lake ecosystems. In order to address these issues, a sedimentary record was obtained from Lake Yilong in Yunnan Province in southwestern China, where the climate and natural environment are dominated by the Indian Summer Monsoon and there is a long history of human occupation and intensive human activity. The chronology is based on AMS 14 C dates from 13 samples of plant macrofossils and charcoal, which show that the record spans the last ~12,000 yr. Geochemical indices were used to reconstruct hydro-climatic variations and lake ecosystem responses. The results indicate that a cold and humid climate prevailed from the late Pleistocene to the beginning of the Holocene, which was interrupted by an abrupt decrease in precipitation during 9.7-8.7 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP, corresponding to the 9.3 ka event). A persistent drying trend occurred during the middle and late Holocene, and there was an increase in the intensity of human activity during the past 1500 years. A comparison of the effects of a natural climatic event and human disturbance reveals contrasting lake ecosystem responses. The lake ecosystem was resilient to the 9.3 ka event and subsequently recovered; however, long-term human activity in the watershed, including deforestation and cultivation, reduced the stability of the lake ecosystem and positive feedback effects were strengthened, leading to the deviation of the system far from its previous stable state. It is concluded that, compared to climate change, human activities have had a much more serious impact on lake ecosystem., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We describe here a multiproxy dataset (grain size, environmental magnetism, stable carbon isotope, total nitrogen, and total organic carbon) generated on a ~116 cm long trench profile from the high altitude alpine Badnikund lake in the Central Himalaya. The dataset also includes environmental magnetic and organic geochemistry data on catchment soils of the Bednikund lake. The presented data is related to the research article "Middle Holocene Indian summer monsoon variability and its impact on cultural changes in the Indian subcontinent" [1]. The chronology of the Bednikund lake trench (BBK) profile is well established with seven AMS 14 C dates. The multiproxy data is provided in tabular format in an excel file along with ages in Mendeley Data Repository. The multiproxy data can be significantly utilized for regional correlation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability during the middle Holocene as well as for correlation of global climatic events. The data can also be reutilized in paleoclimate modelling for precipitation change over the past ~6000 years., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships which have or could be perceived to have influenced the work reported in this article., (© 2021 The Authors.)

The atmospheric stable isotopes in rainwater are measured as the ratio of heavy to the lighter (e.g., 18 O/ 16 O). This data article describes two datasets of daily rain isotopic variations during the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) season. Firstly, an island site (namely Port Blair) dataset for four years (2012-2015) and another dataset of Indian mainland sites (namely Nagpur, Tezpur, and Kolkata) for the year 2015. Port Blair is strategically situated in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), which is known to be a significant moisture source to ISM rainfall over the Indian landmass. On the other hand, sites in the mainland are receivers of the BoB moisture. This dataset includes 1030 isotopic analyses made on daily water samples as well as rainfall amount (24 hours) during ISM. The data is related to "Isotopic investigation of the moisture transport processes over the Bay of Bengal" [1].

Due to human activities, the atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) has been rising extensively since the Industrial Revolution. Indian summer monsoon (ISM) has a dominant westerly component from ocean to land with a strong tendency to ascend and hence may have role in CO2 distribution in lower and middle troposphere over Indian sub-continent. A substantial component of ISM variability arises from the fluctuations on the intra-seasonal scale between active and break phases which correspond to strong and weak monsoon circulation. In view of the above, an attempt is made in this study to examine the AIRS/AQUA satellite retrieved CO2 distribution in response to atmospheric circulation with focus on active and break phase. Correlation analysis indicates the increase in AIRS CO2 linked with strong monsoon circulation. Study also reveals that anomalous circulation pattern during active and break phase show resemblance with high and low values of AIRS CO2. Homogeneous monsoon regions of India show substantial increase in CO2 levels during active phase. Hilly regions of India show strong contrast in CO2 and vertical velocity during active and break phases., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

A speleothem δ(18)O record from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China characterizes changes in summer monsoon precipitation in Northeastern India, the Himalayan foothills, Bangladesh, and northern Indochina over the last 252 kyr. This record is dominated by 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations that are synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. It also shows clear glacial-interglacial variations that are consistent with marine and other terrestrial proxies but are different from the cave records in East China. Corroborated by isotope-enabled global circulation modeling, we hypothesize that this disparity reflects differing changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture trajectories associated with climate forcing as well as with associated topographic changes during glacial periods, in particular redistribution of air mass above the growing ice sheets and the exposure of the "land bridge" in the Maritime continents in the western equatorial Pacific.

This study presents the possible regional climate change over South Asia with a focus over India as simulated by three very high resolution regional climate models (RCMs). One of the most striking results is a robust increase in monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century but regional differences in strength. First the ability of RCMs to simulate the monsoon climate is analyzed. For this purpose all three RCMs are forced with ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1989-2008 at a horizontal resolution of ~25 km. The results are compared against independent observations. In order to simulate future climate the models are driven by lateral boundary conditions from two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) using the SRES A1B scenario, except for one RCM, which only used data from one GCM. The results are presented for the full transient simulation period 1970-2099 and also for several time slices. The analysis concentrates on precipitation and temperature over land. All models show a clear signal of gradually wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming over India is 1.5°C at the end of 2050, whereas it is 3.9°C at the end of century with respect to 1970-1999. The pattern of projected precipitation changes shows considerable spatial variability, with an increase in precipitation over the peninsular of India and coastal areas and, either no change or decrease further inland. From the analysis of a larger ensemble of global climate models using the A1B scenario a wide spread warming (~3.2°C) and an overall increase (~8.5%) in mean monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century is very likely. The influence of the driving GCM on the projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)