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Purpose Standard cancer staging and prognostic estimates are determined at the time of the patient's initial disease presentation. Conditional survival is an alternative, dynamic assessment from follow-up time points after the initial disease diagnosis and is based on the condition of survivorship. Estimates of conditional survival can provide critical prognostic information for patients and clinicians, guide subsequent cancer follow-up schedules, and influence decisions regarding treatments. The current study presents conditional survival estimates developed from a cohort of 4,540 patients diagnosed with stage III melanoma treated at a single institution. Methods Patients with stage III disease at first melanoma diagnosis (initial; n = 2,042), or who developed locoregional metastasis as a first recurrence some time after primary diagnosis (recurrent; n = 2,498), were assessed. Conditional melanoma-specific survival (MSS) estimates up to 5 years after diagnosis were adjusted for age, sex, and 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage. Results Older age at diagnosis of stage III disease conveyed a worse prognosis at each conditional survival time point. Males had significantly worse MSS outcomes for up to 2 years of conditional survival, after which males and females had similar MSS. For patients with AJCC stage IIIB and stage IIIC disease, MSS outcomes were similar to those of patients with stage IIIA disease after 3 and 5 years of survivorship, respectively. Conclusion Adjuvant systemic treatments may have the greatest benefit when administered within the first 2 years of stage III melanoma diagnosis, during which period prognosis is significantly worse for male patients of increasing age and AJCC substage. Conditional survival estimates illustrate improved survival prospects for patients with cancer returning for follow-up and may define a finite period of increased risk after diagnosis.

Purpose: New primary melanomas (NPMs) have developed in some patients with metastatic melanoma treated with BRAF inhibitors. We sought to determine the background incidence of spontaneous NPMs after a diagnosis of American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer stage III or IV melanoma in patients not treated with a BRAF inhibitor., Patients and Methods: Patients diagnosed with stage III or IV melanoma at Melanoma Institute Australia between 1983 and 2008 were analyzed, and those who received a BRAF inhibitor were excluded., Results: Two hundred twenty-nine (5%) of 4,215 patients with stage III melanoma and 43 (1%) of 3,563 patients with stage IV melanoma had at least one NPM after diagnosis of stage III or IV disease. The 6-month, 1-year, and 10-year cumulative incidence rates of developing an NPM after stage III melanoma were 1.2% (95% CI, 0.86% to 1.51%), 1.8% (95% CI, 1.44% to 2.26%), and 5.9% (95% CI, 5.08% to 6.74%), respectively. The 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year cumulative incidence rates of NPM after diagnosis of stage IV melanoma were 0.2% (95% CI, 0.07% to 0.36%), 0.3% (95% CI, 0.15% to 0.51%), and 0.4% (95% CI, 0.25% to 0.7%), respectively. In both patients with stage III and stage IV melanoma, male patients and patients with a prior history of multiple primaries had a higher incidence of NPM., Conclusion: Patients with stage III and stage IV melanoma remain at risk for development of further primary melanomas, particularly if they have a history of multiple primary melanomas before stage III or IV disease. The incidence rates are lower than those reported in patients receiving BRAF inhibitors. However, the results must be compared with caution because dermatologic assessment is more frequent in BRAF inhibitor trials.