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Unsustainable wildlife consumption and illegal wildlife trade (IWT) threaten biodiversity worldwide. Although publicly accessible data sets are increasingly used to generate insights into IWT, little is known about their potential bias. We compared three typical and temporally corresponding data sets (4204 court verdicts, 926 seizure news reports, and 219 bird market surveys) on traded birds native to China and evaluated their possible species biases. Specifically, we evaluated bias and completeness of sampling for species richness, phylogeny, conservation status, spatial distribution, and life-history characteristics among the three data sets when determining patterns of illegal trade. Court verdicts contained the largest species richness. In bird market surveys and seizure news reports, phylogenetic clustering was greater than that in court verdicts, where songbird species (i.e., Passeriformes) were detected in higher proportions in market surveys. The seizure news data set contained the highest proportion of species of high conservation priority but the lowest species coverage. Across the country, all data sets consistently reported relatively high species richness in south and southwest regions, but markets revealed a northern geographic bias. The species composition in court verdicts and markets also exhibited distinct geographical patterns. There was significant ecological trait bias when we modeled whether a bird species is traded in the market. Our regression model suggested that species with small body masses, large geographical ranges, and a preference for anthropogenic habitats and those that are not nationally protected were more likely to be traded illegally. The species biases we found emphasize the need to know the constraints of each data set so that they can optimally inform strategies to combat IWT., (© 2024 The Author(s). Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Illegal poaching and overexploitation for the international pet trade are among the greatest threats to freshwater turtles in Southeast Asia. Expanding consumer research in China is crucial to filling knowledge gaps about the scale and structure of illegal trade and developing audience-targeted and relevant interventions that may reduce demand for illegal turtles as pets. We applied mixed methods to provide a detailed understanding of the consumer side of the illegal pet turtle trade in China. We conducted 30 interviews with key stakeholders and online surveys (n = 2456) of turtle keepers via community forums. From these, we identified 3 core consumer groups based on their prior turtle-keeping experience, species exposure, and potential for future purchases. We conducted a thematic qualitative analysis of concepts related to the capability, opportunity, motivation, and behavior (COM-B) model to determine the factors influencing the illegal pet turtle trade and to identify barriers to illegal purchases. Specifically, we identified purchasers' capabilities, opportunities, and motivations in the context of legality, enforcement risk, captive breeding, and impacts on wild population. We developed consumer journey maps (i.e., visual representations of customer's experiences throughout their buying journey) for core consumer groups. These maps illustrate the sequential behaviors and processes that consumers undertake when purchasing turtles, from initial exposure to sourcing, keeping, and providing a new home. Key factors influencing illegal purchases included convenient purchase channels, misguided cognition and motivations for pet keeping, and weak law enforcement. Effective interventions included messages focusing on shifting cognition and beliefs, increasing legal risk perception, and emphasizing stringent law enforcement, primarily delivered through online channels. Our results underscore the necessity for adaptable, audience-tailored interventions to reduce consumer demand for illegal wildlife products. The mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data, provided a comprehensive understanding of the target behavior and can inform the development of effective intervention strategies., (© 2024 The Author(s). Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Conservation enforcement is a direct strategy to combat illegal wildlife trade in open markets. Yet, its large-scale effectiveness has not been widely assessed due to the lack of extensive market data. Between August 2016 and June 2017, a national coordinated enforcement campaign led by the leading Chinese authority to combat illegal migratory bird trade coincided with the largest-ever pet bird market survey across China by voluntary birdwatchers before and after the enforcement, which served as a unique natural experiment. Across 73 markets from 22 Chinese provinces, the dataset contains 140,723 birds of 346 species from 48 families and recorded a drastic decline in bird abundance traded after enforcement. Notably, species protected under China's Wildlife Protection Law declined significantly, while commercially bred species increased, although responses to enforcement were spatially heterogeneous. Our model showed that the national protection level was the best predictor for the trend of traded species, even after accounting for confounding factors such as regional baseline enforcement pressure and wild native bird populations. However, the widely traded native songbirds were not offered adequate national protection. Future policies should consider the pet bird trade patterns, target key areas of trade, and develop a more systematic market survey design to monitor trade., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:X.R. is affiliated with the National Forestry and Grassland Administration but he is not directly involved in the planning and implementation of the enforcement action. J.Z. and Q.W. are from the China Birdwatching Association which carried out the market survey, but they are not involved in the analysis of the data.

Internet trade is increasingly recognized as a dispersal pathway of non-native plant species that is difficult to monitor. We sought to identify non-native flora present in the Chinese online market, the largest e-commerce market globally, and to decipher the effect of existing trade regulations, among other variables, on e-trading patterns and to inform policy. We used a comprehensive list of 811 non-native plant species in China present in 1 of the 3 phases of the invasion continuum (i.e., introduced, naturalized, and invasive). The price, propagule types, and quantities of the species offered for sale were retrieved from 9 online stores, including 2 of the largest platforms. Over 30% of the non-native species were offered for sale in the online marketplaces; invasive non-native species dominated the list (45.53%). No significant price difference was observed across the non-native species of the 3 invasion categories. Among the 5 propagule types, a significantly higher number of non-native species were offered for sale as seeds. The regression models and path analyses consistently revealed a direct positive effect of the number of uses and species' minimum residence time and an indirect effect of biogeography on the pattern of trade in non-native plant species when minimal phylogenetic signal was detected. A review of the existing phytosanitary regulations in China revealed their inadequacy in managing e-trading of non-native plant species. To address the problem, we propose integration of a standardized risk assessment framework that considers perceptions of stakeholders and is adaptable based on continuous surveillance of the trade network. If implemented successfully, the measures could provide a template for other countries to strengthen trading regulations for non-native plant species and take proactive management measures., (© 2022 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Birds share lands with humans at a substantial scale and affect crops. Yet, at a global scale, systematic evaluations of human-bird coexistence in croplands are scarce. Here, we compiled and used meta-analysis approaches to synthesize multiple global datasets of ecological and social dimensions to understand this complex coexistence system. Our result shows that birds usually increase woody, but not herbaceous, crop production, implying that crop loss mitigation efforts are critical for a better coexistence. We reveal that many nonlethal technical measures are more effective in reducing crop loss, e.g., using scaring devices and changing sow practices, than other available methods. Besides, we find that stakeholders from low-income countries are more likely to perceive the crop losses caused by birds and are less positive toward birds than those from high-income ones. Based on our evidence, we identified potential regional clusters, particularly in tropical areas, for implementing win-win coexistence strategies. Overall, we provide an evidence-based knowledge flow and solutions for stakeholders to integrate the conservation and management of birds in croplands., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Huang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

While altitude affects climatic characteristics, terrestrial plant habitats, and species composition, few studies considered the effects of altitude on ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF). Here, we teased apart the EMF at different altitude with a linear piecewise quantile regression and explore ecosystem functions and environmental factors with EMF along the altitudinal gradient across the Tibetan Plateau. Then, we estimated the response of ecosystem functions to environmental factors, and explain the impact of environmental factors on EMF through the structural equation model. Our data revealed an EMF changepoint at an altitude of about 3900 m where the EMF could be segregated into low- and high-altitude patterns. Our results indicate that water availability drives the EMF mainly through improving soil nutrients and microbe cycling functions in low-altitude regions; conversely, water-heat and phenological conditions regulate the EMF through the role of plant productivity and soil nutrients in high-altitude regions. As such, our EMF analysis suggests that to maintain the long-term stability of the grassland ecosystem, it becomes critical to fully consider the differences in the altitudinal patterns and mechanisms, particularly under the ongoing climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Public climate change awareness is indispensable to dealing with climate change threats. Understanding whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on individuals' climate change risk perception would thus be critical to green economic recovery. We conducted a longitudinal survey study in China when the pandemic was at its height and when it was mitigated. The cross-lagged analysis confirmed our assumed "arousal" effect of perceived COVID-19 risks on climate change risk awareness. We further tested and verified the proposed "dual-pathway" mechanisms of affective generalization (i.e., negative affective states aroused by COVID-19 "spillover" to the assessment of climate change risk) and cognitive association (i.e., the outbreak of COVID-19 awakens people's recognition of the human-nature-climate issues) via multiple mediation analyses. Our results implied that climate policies could be integrated into pandemic control, and that the public should be more awakened to confront multiple crises with proper guidance., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2022 The Authors.)

The potential patterns and processes of ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF) across global ecosystems are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond to drivers. Here we compile a global dataset that consists of 973 unique sites across the forest, grassland, and shrub ecosystems. We identify a critical global pattern of hump-shaped EMF relationship with mean annual precipitation at a threshold of ∼671 mm, where low and high precipitation patterns are discriminated. We find that climatic and soil factors jointly drive the EMF in low precipitation areas, and climatic factors dominate the EMF in high precipitation regions. However, when comparing across the three dominant ecosystems and precipitation regions, the key driver in EMF differs substantially. Specifically, climatic and soil factors dominate the EMF of low and high precipitation regions across forest ecosystems, respectively. Climatic drivers dominate the EMF under different precipitation conditions across grassland and shrub ecosystems. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of climatic and soil drivers on EMF, which should be considered in ecosystem stability models in response to global climate and land-use change scenarios., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Illegal wildlife trade enforcement is a cornerstone conservation strategy worldwide, yet we have a limited understanding on its social impacts. Using Chinese online wildlife seizure news (2003-2018), we evaluated the interactions among enforcement operations, news frequency, and social engagement (i.e., whistle-blowing) frequency. Our results showed that intensive enforcement operations, which commenced after 2012, have social impacts by increasing the frequency of all seizure news significantly by 28% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5%, 51%] and those via whistle-blowing by 24% [95% CI: 2%, 45%], when compared to counterfactual models where possible confounding factors were accounted for. Furthermore, we revealed the potential interaction between enforcement seizure news with and without social engagement, and the consequential social feedback process. Of the species identified from 'whistle-blowing' news, up to 28% are considered as high conservation priorities. Overall, we expanded our understanding of the enforcement impacts to social dimensions, which could contribute to improving the cost-effectiveness of such conservation efforts., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

The dominant approach to combating the illegal wildlife trade has traditionally been to restrict the supply of wildlife products. Yet conservationists increasingly recognize the importance of implementing demand-side interventions that target the end consumers in the trade chain. Their aim is to curb the consumption of wildlife or shift consumption to more sustainable alternatives. However, there are still considerable knowledge gaps in understanding of the diversity of consumer motivations in the context of illegal wildlife trade, which includes hundreds of thousands of species, different uses, and diverse contexts. Based on consultation with multiple experts from a diversity of backgrounds, nationalities, and focal taxa, we developed a typology of common motivations held by wildlife consumers that can be used to inform conservation interventions. We identified 5 main motivational categories for wildlife use: experiential, social, functional, financial, and spiritual, each containing subcategories. This framework is intended to facilitate the segmentation of consumers based on psychographics and allow the tailoring of interventions-whether behavior change campaigns, enforcement efforts, or incentive programs-to the specific context in which they will be used. Underlining the importance of consumer research and collaborating with local actors is an important step toward promoting a more systematic approach to the design of demand reduction interventions., (© 2020 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

To achieve the grand vision of 'Ecological Civilization' and to build a more sustainable Belt and Road Initiative, China's conservation policies must be underpinned by research. However, recent institutional and vertebrate conservation scientists' publication data suggest that China has a growing conservation research capacity deficit. China lacks a pipeline for the training and development of conservation scientists locally and abroad. The network of active conservation scientists is rapidly shrinking and institutions are exhibiting signs of academic inbreeding. Career advancement policies are perversely incentivized away from practical conservation research, thereby constraining capacity building. Comparative data indicate that China severely lags behind the United States and United Kingdom in research quality and capacity. We outline possible recommendations that include developing a different performance evaluation system, promoting training and international exchanges, encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration, and fostering international collaborative networks for China-based conservation scientists. For global biodiversity governance, China must act to make up for considerable shortfalls in conservation research capacity and research collaborative networks.

The trade in wild animals involves one-third of the world's bird species and thousands of other vertebrate species. Although a few species are imperiled as a result of the wildlife trade, the lack of field studies makes it difficult to gauge how serious a threat it is to biodiversity. We used data on changes in bird abundances across space and time and information from trapper interviews to evaluate the effects of trapping wild birds for the pet trade in Sumatra, Indonesia. To analyze changes in bird abundance over time, we used data gathered over 14 years of repeated bird surveys in a 900-ha forest in southern Sumatra. In northern Sumatra, we surveyed birds along a gradient of trapping accessibility, from the edge of roads to 5 km into the forest interior. We interviewed 49 bird trappers in northern Sumatra to learn which species they targeted and how far they went into the forest to trap. We used prices from Sumatran bird markets as a proxy for demand and, therefore, trapping pressure. Market price was a significant predictor of species declines over time in southern Sumatra (e.g., given a market price increase of approximately $50, the log change in abundance per year decreased by 0.06 on average). This result indicates a link between the market-based pet trade and community-wide species declines. In northern Sumatra, price and change in abundance were not related to remoteness (distance from the nearest road). However, based on our field surveys, high-value species were rare or absent across this region. The median maximum distance trappers went into the forest each day was 5.0 km. This suggests that trapping has depleted bird populations across our remoteness gradient. We found that less than half of Sumatra's remaining forests are >5 km from a major road. Our results suggest that trapping for the pet trade threatens birds in Sumatra. Given the popularity of pet birds across Southeast Asia, additional studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and magnitude of the threat posed by the pet trade., (© 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Global climate change is known to affect the assembly of ecological communities by altering species' spatial distribution patterns, but little is known about how climate change may affect community assembly by changing species' temporal co-occurrence patterns, which is highly likely given the widely observed phenological shifts associated with climate change. Here, we analyzed a 29-year phenological data set comprising community-level information on the timing and span of temporal occurrence in 11 seasonally occurring animal taxon groups from 329 local meteorological observatories across China. We show that widespread shifts in phenology have resulted in community-wide changes in the temporal overlap between taxa that are dominated by extensions, and that these changes are largely due to taxa's altered span of temporal occurrence rather than the degree of synchrony in phenological shifts. Importantly, our findings also suggest that climate change may have led to less phenological mismatch than generally presumed, and that the context under which to discuss the ecological consequences of phenological shifts should be expanded beyond asynchronous shifts., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The extent to which species' traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework.

Land use science has traditionally used case-study approaches for in-depth investigation of land use change processes and impacts. Meta-studies synthesize findings across case-study evidence to identify general patterns. In this paper, we provide a review of meta-studies in land use science. Various meta-studies have been conducted, which synthesize deforestation and agricultural land use change processes, while other important changes, such as urbanization, wetland conversion, and grassland dynamics have hardly been addressed. Meta-studies of land use change impacts focus mostly on biodiversity and biogeochemical cycles, while meta-studies of socioeconomic consequences are rare. Land use change processes and land use change impacts are generally addressed in isolation, while only few studies considered trajectories of drivers through changes to their impacts and their potential feedbacks. We provide a conceptual framework for linking meta-studies of land use change processes and impacts for the analysis of coupled human-environmental systems. Moreover, we provide suggestions for combining meta-studies of different land use change processes to develop a more integrated theory of land use change, and for combining meta-studies of land use change impacts to identify tradeoffs between different impacts. Land use science can benefit from an improved conceptualization of land use change processes and their impacts, and from new methods that combine meta-study findings to advance our understanding of human-environmental systems.

Selective logging is one of the most common forms of forest use in the tropics. Although the effects of selective logging on biodiversity have been widely studied, there is little agreement on the relationship between life-history traits and tolerance to logging. In this study, we assessed how species traits and logging practices combine to determine species responses to selective logging, based on over 4000 observations of the responses of nearly 1000 bird species to selective logging across the tropics. Our analysis shows that species traits, such as feeding group and body mass, and logging practices, such as time since logging and logging intensity, interact to influence a species' response to logging. Frugivores and insectivores were most adversely affected by logging and declined further with increasing logging intensity. Nectarivores and granivores responded positively to selective logging for the first two decades, after which their abundances decrease below pre-logging levels. Larger species of omnivores and granivores responded more positively to selective logging than smaller species from either feeding group, whereas this effect of body size was reversed for carnivores, herbivores, frugivores and insectivores. Most importantly, species most negatively impacted by selective logging had not recovered approximately 40 years after logging cessation. We conclude that selective timber harvest has the potential to cause large and long-lasting changes in avian biodiversity. However, our results suggest that the impacts can be mitigated to a certain extent through specific forest management strategies such as lengthening the rotation cycle and implementing reduced impact logging., (© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)

Indirect effects of electronic waste (e-waste) have been proposed as a causal factor in the decline of bird populations, but analyses of the severity impacts on community assembly are currently lacking. To explore how population abundance/species diversity are influenced, and which functional traits are important in determining e-waste susceptibility, here we surveyed breeding and overwintering birds with a hierarchically nested sampling design, and used linear mixed models to analyze changes in bird assemblages along an exposure gradient in South China. Total bird abundance and species diversity decreased with e-waste severity (exposed < surrounding < reference), reflecting the decreasing discharge and consequent side effects. Twenty-five breeding species exclusively used natural farmland, and nine species decreased significantly in relative abundance at e-waste polluted sites. A high pairwise similarity between exposed and surrounding sites indicates a diffuse effect of pollutants on the species assembly at local scale. We show that sensitivity to e-waste severity varies substantially across functional guild, with the prevalence of woodland insectivorous and grassland specialists declining, while some open farmland generalists such as arboreal frugivores, and terrestrial granivores were also rare. By contrast, the response of waterbirds, omnivorous and non-breeding visitors seem to be tolerable to a wide range of pollution so far. These findings underscore that improper e-waste dismantling results in a severe decline of bird diversity, and the different bird assemblages on polluted and natural farmlands imply species- and guild-dependent susceptibility with functional traits. Moreover, a better understanding of the impact of e-waste with different pollution levels, combined multiple pollutants, and in a food-web context on bird is required in future.

Competition theory predicts that local communities should consist of species that are more dissimilar than expected by chance. We find a strikingly different pattern in a multicontinent data set (55 presence-absence matrices from 24 locations) on the composition of mixed-species bird flocks, which are important subunits of local bird communities the world over. By using null models and randomization tests followed by meta-analysis, we find the association strengths of species in flocks to be strongly related to similarity in body size and foraging behavior and higher for congeneric compared with noncongeneric species pairs. Given the local spatial scales of our individual analyses, differences in the habitat preferences of species are unlikely to have caused these association patterns; the patterns observed are most likely the outcome of species interactions. Extending group-living and social-information-use theory to a heterospecific context, we discuss potential behavioral mechanisms that lead to positive interactions among similar species in flocks, as well as ways in which competition costs are reduced. Our findings highlight the need to consider positive interactions along with competition when seeking to explain community assembly.

Human-driven land-use changes increasingly threaten biodiversity, particularly in tropical forests where both species diversity and human pressures on natural environments are high. The rapid conversion of tropical forests for agriculture, timber production and other uses has generated vast, human-dominated landscapes with potentially dire consequences for tropical biodiversity. Today, few truly undisturbed tropical forests exist, whereas those degraded by repeated logging and fires, as well as secondary and plantation forests, are rapidly expanding. Here we provide a global assessment of the impact of disturbance and land conversion on biodiversity in tropical forests using a meta-analysis of 138 studies. We analysed 2,220 pairwise comparisons of biodiversity values in primary forests (with little or no human disturbance) and disturbed forests. We found that biodiversity values were substantially lower in degraded forests, but that this varied considerably by geographic region, taxonomic group, ecological metric and disturbance type. Even after partly accounting for confounding colonization and succession effects due to the composition of surrounding habitats, isolation and time since disturbance, we find that most forms of forest degradation have an overwhelmingly detrimental effect on tropical biodiversity. Our results clearly indicate that when it comes to maintaining tropical biodiversity, there is no substitute for primary forests.

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

There are few empirical data, particularly collected simultaneously from multiple sites, on extinctions resulting from human-driven land-use change. Southeast Asia has the highest deforestation rate in the world, but the resulting losses of biological diversity remain poorly documented. Between November 2006 and March 2008, we conducted bird surveys on six landbridge islands in Malaysia and Indonesia. These islands were surveyed previously for birds in the early 1900 s, when they were extensively forested. Our bird inventories of the islands were nearly complete, as indicated by sampling saturation curves and nonparametric true richness estimators. From zero (Pulau Malawali and Pulau Mantanani) to 15 (Pulau Bintan) diurnal resident landbird species were apparently extirpated since the early 1900 s. Adding comparable but published extinction data from Singapore to our regression analyses, we found there were proportionally fewer forest bird extinctions in areas with greater remaining forest cover. Nevertheless, the statistical evidence to support this relationship was weak, owing to our unavoidably small sample size. Bird species that are restricted to the Indomalayan region, lay few eggs, are heavier, and occupy a narrower habitat breadth, were most vulnerable to extinction on Pulau Bintan. This was the only island where sufficient data existed to analyze the correlates of extinction. Forest preservation and restoration are needed on these islands to conserve the remaining forest avifauna. Our study of landbridge islands indicates that deforestation may increasingly threaten Southeast Asian biodiversity., (© 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Understanding how climate change affects the structure and function of communities is critical for gauging its full impact on biodiversity. To date, community-level changes have been poorly documented, owing, in part, to the paucity of long-term datasets. To circumvent this, the use of 'space-for-time' substitution--the forecasting of temporal trends from spatial climatic gradients--has increasingly been adopted, often with little empirical support. Here we examine changes from 1975 to 2001 in three community attributes (species richness, body mass and occupancy) for 404 assemblages of terrestrial winter avifauna in North America containing a total of 227 species. We examine the accuracy of space-for-time substitution and assess causal associations between community attributes and observed changes in annual temperature using a longitudinal study design. Annual temperature and all three community attributes increased over time. The trends for the three community attributes differed significantly from the spatially derived predictions, although richness showed broad congruence. Correlations with trends in temperature were found with richness and body mass. In the face of rapid climate change, applying space-for-time substitution as a predictive tool could be problematic with communities developing patterns not reflected by spatial ecological associations.

Endemism and species richness are highly relevant to the global prioritization of conservation efforts in which oceanic islands have remained relatively neglected. When compared to mainland areas, oceanic islands in general are known for their high percentage of endemic species but only moderate levels of species richness, prompting the question of their relative conservation value. Here we quantify geographic patterns of endemism-scaled richness ("endemism richness") of vascular plants across 90 terrestrial biogeographic regions, including islands, worldwide and evaluate their congruence with terrestrial vertebrates. Endemism richness of plants and vertebrates is strongly related, and values on islands exceed those of mainland regions by a factor of 9.5 and 8.1 for plants and vertebrates, respectively. Comparisons of different measures of past and future human impact and land cover change further reveal marked differences between mainland and island regions. While island and mainland regions suffered equally from past habitat loss, we find the human impact index, a measure of current threat, to be significantly higher on islands. Projected land-cover changes for the year 2100 indicate that land-use-driven changes on islands might strongly increase in the future. Given their conservation risks, smaller land areas, and high levels of endemism richness, islands may offer particularly high returns for species conservation efforts and therefore warrant a high priority in global biodiversity conservation in this century.

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended 'north-south' transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change.

Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species) to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545) or had increased (n = 28). These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

Protected areas are critical for the conservation of residual tropical forest biodiversity, yet many of these are being deforested by humans both within and outside of their administrative boundaries. Therefore, it is critical to document the significance of protected areas for conserving tropical biodiversity, particularly in mega-diverse Southeast Asia. We evaluated the importance of protected areas (national parks [NP], nature reserves [NR], and wildlife reserves [WR]) in preserving avifaunal diversity, particularly the endemic and forest species, on the island of Sulawesi. This island has one of the highest numbers of endemic avifauna genera (12) globally and is also experiencing heavy deforestation. Rarefaction analyses and species estimators showed that parks and reserves consistently recorded higher number of forest, endemic, and endemic forest bird species, in addition to larger population densities, than in their surrounding human-modified areas across eight protected areas (Gunung Manembo-nembo WR, Tangkoko-Batu Angus and Dua Saudara NR, Gunung Ambang NR, Bogani Nani Wartabone NP, Gunung Tinombala NR, Gunung Sojol NR, Lore Lindu NP, and Rawa Aopa Watumohai NP). This implies that protecting natural forests must remain as one of the fundamental conservation strategies in Sulawesi. Two small reserves (Gunung Manembo-nembo WR and Tangkoko-Batu Angus and Dua Saudara NR), however, had high number of forest and endemic bird species both within and outside their boundaries, suggesting the importance of buffer areas for augmenting small reserves so as to improve their conservation value. Ordination analyses revealed the differential response of bird species to different environmental factors (e.g., native tree cover), highlighting the significance of forested habitats with dense native vegetation cover for effective conservation of forest dependent and endemic avifauna. In addition, the distinctiveness in bird species composition among protected areas highlights the importance of establishing a reserve network across major altitudinal zones so as to achieve maximum complementarity for the conservation of Sulawesi's unique avifauna.

Long-term (> 50 years) extinction patterns and processes in isolated tropical forest patches are poorly understood. Considering that forest fragments are rapidly becoming the common feature of most tropical landscapes, data on the long-term conservation value of such fragments are urgently needed. We report on avifaunal turnover in a tropical woodlot (Bogor Botanical Gardens; 86 ha; 54% native and 46% introduced plants; mean 83,649 visitors/month) that has been surveyed several times before and after its isolation in 1936. By 2004 the original avifaunal richness of this woodlot declined by 59% (97 to 40 species) and its forest-dependent avifauna declined by 60% (30 to 12 species). Large-bodied birds were particularly prone to extinction before 1987, but following this time none of the species traits we studied could be considered predictive of extinction proneness. All seven forest-dependent bird species that attempted to colonize this woodlot by 1987 perished thereafter. Our results show that area reduction, isolation, intense human use, and perverse management (e.g., understory removal) of this patch have probably negatively affected the long-term sustainability of its forest avifauna.