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Background: The evaluation of durable immune responses is important in HIV vaccine research and development. The efficiency of such evaluation could be increased by incorporating predictors of the responses in the statistical analysis. In this paper, we investigated whether and how baseline demographic variables and immune responses measured two weeks after vaccination predicted durable immune responses measured six months later., Methods: We included data from seven preventive HIV vaccine regimens evaluated in three clinical trials: a Phase 1 study of four DNA, NYVAC and/or AIDSVAX vaccine regimens (HVTN096), a Phase 2 study of two DNA and/or MVA vaccine regimens (HVTN205), and a Phase 3 study of a single ALVAC/AIDSVAX regimen (RV144). Regularized random forests and linear regression models were used to identify and evaluate predictors of the positivity and magnitude of durable immune responses., Results: We analyzed 201 vaccine recipients with data from 10 to 127 immune response biomarkers, and 3-5 demographic variables. The best prediction of participants' durable response positivity based on two-week responses rendered up to close-to-perfect accuracy; the best prediction of participants' durable response magnitude rendered correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted responses ranging up to 0.91. Though prediction performances differed among biomarkers, durable immune responses were best predicted by the two-week response level of the same biomarker. Adding demographic information and two-week response levels of different biomarkers provided little or no improvement in the predictions., Conclusions: For some biomarkers and for the vaccines we studied, two-week post-vaccination responses can well predict durable responses six months later. Therefore, if immune response durability is only assessed in a sub-sample of vaccine recipients, statistical analyses of durable responses will have increased efficiency by incorporating two-week response data. Further research is needed to generalize the findings to other vaccine regimens and biomarkers. Clinicaltrials.gov identifiers: NCT01799954, NCT00820846, NCT00223080., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The HVTN 503/Phambili study, which assessed the efficacy of the Merck Ad5 gag/pol/nef subtype B HIV-1 preventive vaccine in South Africa, was stopped when futility criteria in the Step study (assessing the same vaccine in the Americas, Caribbean, and Australia) were met. Here we report long-term follow-up data., Methods: HVTN 503/Phambili was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial that recruited HIV-1 uninfected, sexually active adults aged 18-35 years from five sites in South Africa. Eligible participants were randomly assigned (1:1) by computer-generated random numbers to either vaccine or placebo, stratified by site and sex. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate HIV-1 infection in the modified intention-to-treat cohort, all of whom were unmasked early in follow-up. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00413725 and the South African National Health Research Database, number DOH-27-0207-1539., Findings: Between Jan 24, 2007, and Sept 19, 2007, 801 participants (26·7%) of a planned 3000 were randomly assigned (400 to vaccine, 401 to placebo); 216 (27%) received only one injection, 529 (66%) received only two injections, and 56 (7%) received three injections. At a median follow-up of 42 months (IQR 31-42), 63 vaccine recipients (16%) had HIV-1 infection compared with 37 placebo recipients (9%; adjusted HR 1·70, 95% CI 1·13-2·55; p=0·01). Risk for HIV-1 infection did not differ according to the number of vaccinations received, sex, circumcision, or adenovirus type 5 (Ad5) serostatus. Differences in risk behaviour at baseline or during the study, or annualised dropout rate (7·7% [95% CI 6·2-9·5] for vaccine recipients vs 8·8% [7·1-10·7] for placebo recipients; p=0·40) are unlikely explanations for the increased rate of HIV-1 infections seen in vaccine recipients., Interpretation: The increased risk of HIV-1 acquisition in vaccine recipients, irrespective of number of doses received, warrants further investigation to understand the biological mechanism. We caution against further use of the Ad5 vector for HIV vaccines., Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Merck, and South African Medical Research Council., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The MRKAd5 HIV-1 gag/pol/nef subtype B vaccine was designed to elicit T-cell-mediated immune responses capable of providing complete or partial protection from HIV-1 infection or a decrease in viral load after acquisition. We aim to assess the safety and efficacy of the vaccine in South Africa, where the major circulating clade is subtype C., Methods: We did a phase 2b double-blind, randomised test-of-concept study in sexually active HIV-1 seronegative participants at five sites in South Africa. Randomisation was by a computer-generated random number sequence. The vaccine and placebo were given by intramuscular injection on a 0, 1, 6 month schedule. Our coprimary endpoints were a vaccine-induced reduction in HIV-1 acquisition and viral-load setpoint. These endpoints were assessed independently in the modified intention-to-treat (MITT) cohort with two-tailed significance tests stratified by sex. We assessed immunogenicity by interferon-γ ELISPOT in peripheral-blood mononuclear cells. After the lack of efficacy of the MRKAd5 HIV-1 vaccine in the Step study, enrolment and vaccination in our study was halted, treatment allocations were unmasked, and follow-up continued. This study is registered with the South Africa National Health Research Database, number DOH-27-0207-1539, and ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00413725., Findings: 801 of a scheduled 3000 participants, of whom 360 (45%) were women, were randomly assigned to receive either vaccine or placebo. 445 participants (56%) had adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5) titres greater than 200, and 129 men (29%) were circumcised. 34 MITT participants in the vaccine group were diagnosed with HIV-1 (incidence rate 4·54 per 100 person-years) and 28 in the placebo group (3·70 per 100 person-years). There was no evidence of vaccine efficacy; the hazard ratio adjusted for sex was 1·25 (95% CI 0·76-2·05). Vaccine efficacy did not differ by Ad5 titre, sex, age, herpes simplex virus type 2 status, or circumcision. The geometric mean viral-load setpoint was 20,483 copies per mL (n=33) in the vaccine group and 34,032 copies per mL (n=28) in the placebo group (p=0·39). The vaccine elicited interferon-γ-secreting T cells that recognised both clade B (89%) and C (77%) antigens., Interpretation: The MRKAd5 HIV-1 vaccine did not prevent HIV-1 infection or lower viral-load setpoint; however, stopping our trial early probably compromised our ability to draw conclusions. The high incidence rates noted in South Africa highlight the crucial need for intensified efforts to develop an efficacious vaccine., Funding: The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease and Merck and Co Inc., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)