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Diel partitioning of animals within ecological communities is widely acknowledged, yet rarely quantified. Investigation of most ecological patterns and processes involves convenient daylight sampling, with little consideration of the contributions of nocturnal taxa, particularly in marine environments. Here we assess diel partitioning of reef faunal assemblages at a continental scale utilizing paired day and night visual census across 54 shallow tropical and temperate reefs around Australia. Day-night differences were most pronounced in the tropics, with fishes and invertebrates displaying distinct and opposing diel occupancy on coral reefs. Tropical reefs in daytime were occupied primarily by fishes not observed at night (64% of all species sighted across day and night, and 71% of all individuals). By night, substantial emergence of invertebrates not otherwise detected during sunlit hours occurred (56% of all species, and 45% of individuals). Nocturnal emergence of tropical invertebrates corresponded with significant declines in the richness and biomass of predatory and herbivorous diurnal fishes. In contrast, relatively small diel changes in fishes active on temperate reefs corresponded to limited nocturnal emergence of temperate invertebrates. This reduced partitioning may, at least in part, be a result of strong top-down pressures from fishes on invertebrate communities, either by predation or competitive interference. For shallow reefs, the diel cycle triggers distinct emergence and retreat of faunal assemblages and associated trophic patterns and processes, which otherwise go unnoticed during hours of regular scientific monitoring. Improved understanding of reef ecology, and management of reef ecosystems, requires greater consideration of nocturnal interactions. Without explicit sampling of nocturnal patterns and processes, we may be missing up to half of the story when assessing ecological interactions., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America.)

Although global warming is leading to more frequent mass coral bleaching events worldwide, parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have consistently escaped severe coral bleaching. Modeling and satellite observations show that climate refugia are created by the upwelling of cooler water to the surface through the interactions of tides and currents with dense reef structures. Here, we use a high-resolution nested regional ocean model to investigate the future status of two relatively large refugia. On the basis of model projections under a high-emission scenario, we find that the upwelling mechanisms will stay active in a warming climate, and these regions are likely to remain approximately more than 1°C cooler than surrounding waters until at least into the 2080s, providing thermal relief to corals. Identification and protection of these refugia may help facilitate reef survival and related biodiversity preservation by allowing their corals time to acclimatize and adapt and ultimately provide source populations to replenish the rest of the reef.

Despite seafood being the primary source of long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), the fatty acid (FA) contents of numerous exploited fish species remain unknown, partly due to the prohibitive costs associated with sourcing commercial fish fillets. We assessed whether fish by-products can reliably be used to estimate key nutritional FA contents in fillets by testing for consistent relationships between FA contents in fillet, and those in the breast, cheek, occiput, and tail tissue of three commercial coral reef fish species. Breast tissue was most suitable for estimating concentrations and proportions of FAs in the fillet due to strong and consistent relationships across FA types and species. In contrast, relationships between FA contents in the fillet and in other by-products were inconsistent across species and/or FA types. Through reducing research costs and food waste, utilising by-products will encourage FA research, particularly in tropical regions where omega-3 deficiency rates are highest., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The services provided by the world's coral reefs are threatened by increasingly frequent and severe marine heatwaves. Heatwave-induced degradation of reefs has often been inferred from the extent of the decline in total coral cover, which overlooks extreme variation among coral taxa in their susceptibility and responses to thermal stress. Here, we provide a continental-scale assessment of coral cover changes at 262 shallow tropical reef sites around Australia, using ecological survey data on 404 coral taxa before and after the 2016 mass bleaching event. A strong spatial structure in coral community composition along large-scale environmental gradients largely dictated how coral communities responded to heat stress. While heat stress variables were the best predictors of change in total coral cover, the pre-heatwave community composition best predicted the temporal beta-diversity index (an indicator of change in community composition over time). Indicator taxa in each coral community differed before and after the heatwave, highlighting potential winners and losers of climate-driven coral bleaching. Our results demonstrate how assessment of change in total cover alone may conceal very different responses in community structure, some of which showed strong regional consistency, and may provide a telling outlook of how coral reefs may reorganize in a warmer future.

Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect coral reefs against climate change. Our analysis of daily projections of ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, and onset of severe bleaching risk for global coral reefs this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude coral regions are most vulnerable to thermal stress and will experience little reprieve from climate mitigation. By 2080, coral bleaching is likely to start on most reefs in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round bleaching risk anticipated to be high for some low-latitude reefs regardless of global efforts to mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. By identifying Earth's reef regions that are at lowest risk of accelerated bleaching, our results will prioritize efforts to limit future loss of coral reef biodiversity.

Climate-driven species redistributions are facilitated by niche modifications that increase a species's chances of establishment in novel communities. It is well understood how range-extending species adjust individual niche traits when entering novel environments, yet whether modification of ecological niche traits collectively alters the pace of range extensions or contractions remains unknown. We quantified habitat niche, abundance, physiological performance and cellular defence/damage of range-extending coral reef fishes and coexisting local temperate fishes along a 2000 km latitudinal gradient. We also assessed their dietary and behavioural niches, and establishment potential, to understand whether ecological generalism facilitates successful range extension of coral reef fishes. The coral reef fish that increased all ecological niches, showed stronger establishment, increased physiological performance and cellular damage, but decreased cellular defence at their cold-range edge, whereas tropical species that showed unmodified ecological niches showed lower establishment. One temperate species showed decreased abundance, habitat niche width and body condition, but increased cellular defence, cellular damage and energy reserves at their warm-trailing range, while other temperate species showed contrasting responses. Therefore, ecological generalists might be more successful than ecological specialists during the initial stages of climate change, with increasing future warming strengthening this pattern by physiologically benefitting tropical generalists but disadvantaging temperate specialists.

Human society is dependent on nature 1,2 , but whether our ecological foundations are at risk remains unknown in the absence of systematic monitoring of species' populations 3 . Knowledge of species fluctuations is particularly inadequate in the marine realm 4 . Here we assess the population trends of 1,057 common shallow reef species from multiple phyla at 1,636 sites around Australia over the past decade. Most populations decreased over this period, including many tropical fishes, temperate invertebrates (particularly echinoderms) and southwestern Australian macroalgae, whereas coral populations remained relatively stable. Population declines typically followed heatwave years, when local water temperatures were more than 0.5 °C above temperatures in 2008. Following heatwaves 5,6 , species abundances generally tended to decline near warm range edges, and increase near cool range edges. More than 30% of shallow invertebrate species in cool latitudes exhibited high extinction risk, with rapidly declining populations trapped by deep ocean barriers, preventing poleward retreat as temperatures rise. Greater conservation effort is needed to safeguard temperate marine ecosystems, which are disproportionately threatened and include species with deep evolutionary roots. Fundamental among such efforts, and broader societal needs to efficiently adapt to interacting anthropogenic and natural pressures, is greatly expanded monitoring of species' population trends 7,8 ., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean., (© 2022. Springer Nature Limited.)

Warming seas, marine heatwaves, and habitat degradation are increasingly widespread phenomena affecting marine biodiversity, yet our understanding of their broader impacts is largely derived from collective insights from independent localized studies. Insufficient systematic broadscale monitoring limits our understanding of the true extent of these impacts and our capacity to track these at scales relevant to national policies and international agreements. Using an extensive time series of co-located reef fish community structure and habitat data spanning 12 years and the entire Australian continent, we found that reef fish community responses to changing temperatures and habitats are dynamic and widespread but regionally patchy. Shifts in composition and abundance of the fish community often occurred within 2 years of environmental or habitat change, although the relative importance of these two mechanisms of climate impact tended to differ between tropical and temperate zones. The clearest of these changes on temperate and subtropical reefs were temperature related, with responses measured by the reef fish thermal index indicating reshuffling according to the thermal affinities of species present. On low latitude coral reefs, the community generalization index indicated shifting dominance of habitat generalist fishes through time, concurrent with changing coral cover. Our results emphasize the importance of maintaining local ecological detail when scaling up datasets to inform national policies and global biodiversity targets. Scaled-up ecological monitoring is needed to discriminate among increasingly diverse drivers of large-scale biodiversity change and better connect presently disjointed systems of biodiversity observation, indicator research, and governance., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The vulnerability of marine biodiversity to accelerated rates of climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these to 21st century projections, we show that future rates of ocean warming will disproportionately affect the most speciose marine communities, potentially threatening biodiversity in more than 70% of current-day global hotspots of marine species richness. The persistence of these richest areas of marine biodiversity will require many species to move well beyond the biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at rates of redistribution not previously seen. Our approach for quantifying exposure of biodiversity to past and future rates of oceanic warming provides new context and scalable information for deriving and strengthening conservation actions to safeguard marine biodiversity under climate change., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

AbstractCrown-of-thorns sea stars ( Acanthaster sp.) are among the most studied coral reef organisms, owing to their propensity to undergo major population irruptions, which contribute to significant coral loss and reef degradation throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, there are still important knowledge gaps pertaining to the biology, ecology, and management of Acanthaster sp. Renewed efforts to advance understanding and management of Pacific crown-of-thorns sea stars ( Acanthaster sp.) on Australia's Great Barrier Reef require explicit consideration of relevant and tractable knowledge gaps. Drawing on established horizon scanning methodologies, this study identified contemporary knowledge gaps by asking active and/or established crown-of-thorns sea star researchers to pose critical research questions that they believe should be addressed to improve the understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef. A total of 38 participants proposed 246 independent research questions, organized into 7 themes: feeding ecology, demography, distribution and abundance, predation, settlement, management, and environmental change. Questions were further assigned to 48 specific topics nested within the 7 themes. During this process, redundant questions were removed, which reduced the total number of distinct research questions to 172. Research questions posed were mostly related to themes of demography (46 questions) and management (48 questions). The dominant topics, meanwhile, were the incidence of population irruptions (16 questions), feeding ecology of larval sea stars (15 questions), effects of elevated water temperature on crown-of-thorns sea stars (13 questions), and predation on juveniles (12 questions). While the breadth of questions suggests that there is considerable research needed to improve understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef, the predominance of certain themes and topics suggests a major focus for new research while also providing a roadmap to guide future research efforts.

Human activities are altering the structure of ecological communities, often favouring generalists over specialists. For reef fishes, increasingly degraded habitats and climate-driven range shifts may independently augment generalization, particularly if fishes with least-specific habitat requirements are more likely to shift geographic ranges to track their thermal niche. Using a unique global dataset on temperate and tropical reef fishes and habitat composition, we calculated a species generalization index that empirically estimates the habitat niche breadth of each fish species. We then applied the species generalization index to evaluate potential impacts of habitat loss and range shifts across large scales, on coral and rocky reefs. Our analyses revealed consistent habitat-induced shifts in community structure that favoured generalist fishes following regional coral mortality events and between adjacent sea urchin barrens and kelp habitats. Analysis of the distribution of tropical fishes also identified the species generalization index as the most important trait in predicting their poleward range extent, more so than body or range size. Generalist tropical reef fishes penetrate further into subtropical and temperate zones than specialists. Dynamic responses of reef fishes to habitat degradation imply loss of specialists at local scales, while generalists will be broadly favoured under intensifying anthropogenic pressures. An increased focus on individual requirements of specialists could provide useful guidance for species threat assessments and conservation actions, while ecosystem and multi-species fisheries models should recognize increasing prevalence of generalists.

Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity, and indirectly impacting coral reef fisheries through bleaching-induced degradation of live coral habitats. Marine heatwaves also affect fish metabolism and catchability, but such direct effects of elevated temperatures on reef fisheries are largely unknown. We investigated direct and indirect effects of the devastating 2016 marine heatwave on the largest reef fishery operating along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We used a combination of fishery-independent underwater census data on coral trout biomass (Plectropomus and Variola spp.) and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data from the commercial fishery to evaluate changes in the fishery resulting from the 2016 heatwave. The heatwave caused widespread, yet locally patchy, declines in coral cover, but we observed little effect of local coral loss on coral trout biomass. Instead, a pattern of decreasing biomass at northern sites and stable or increasing biomass at southern sites suggested a direct response of populations to the heatwave. Analysis of the fishery-independent data and CPUE found that in-water coral trout biomass estimates were positively related to CPUE, and that coral trout catch rates increased with warmer temperatures. Temperature effects on catch rates were consistent with the thermal affinities of the multiple species contributing to this fishery. Scaling-up the effect of temperature on coral trout catch rates across the region suggests that GBR-wide catches were 18% higher for a given level of effort during the heatwave year relative to catch rates under the mean temperatures in the preceding 6 years. These results highlight a potentially large effect of heatwaves on catch rates of reef fishes, independent of changes in reef habitats, that can add substantial uncertainty to estimates of stock trends inferred from fishery-dependent (CPUE) data. Overestimation of CPUE could initiate declines in reef fisheries that are currently fully exploited, and threaten sustainable management of reef stocks., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Primary productivity of marine ecosystems is largely driven by broad gradients in environmental and ecological properties. By contrast, secondary productivity tends to be more variable, influenced by bottom-up (resource-driven) and top-down (predatory) processes, other environmental drivers, and mediation by the physical structure of habitats. Here, we use a continental-scale dataset on small mobile invertebrates (epifauna), common on surfaces in all marine ecosystems, to test influences of potential drivers of temperature-standardized secondary production across a large biogeographic range. We found epifaunal production to be remarkably consistent along a temperate to tropical Australian latitudinal gradient of 28.6°, spanning kelp forests to coral reefs (approx. 3500 km). Using a model selection procedure, epifaunal production was primarily related to biogenic habitat group, which explained up to 45% of total variability. Production was otherwise invariant to predictors capturing primary productivity, the local biomass of fishes (proxy for predation pressure), and environmental, geographical, and human impacts. Highly predictable levels of epifaunal productivity associated with distinct habitat groups across continental scales should allow accurate modelling of the contributions of these ubiquitous invertebrates to coastal food webs, thus improving understanding of likely changes to food web structure with ocean warming and other anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems.

Effective environmental management hinges on efficient and targeted monitoring, which in turn should adapt to increasing disturbance regimes that now characterize most ecosystems. Habitats and biodiversity of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the world's largest coral reef ecosystem, are in declining condition, prompting a review of the effectiveness of existing coral monitoring programs. Applying a regional model of coral cover (i.e., the most widely used proxy for coral reef condition globally) within major benthic communities, we assess the representation and complementarity of existing long-term coral reef monitoring programs on the GBR. We show that existing monitoring has captured up to 45% of the environmental diversity on the GBR, while some geographic areas (including major hotspots of cyclone activity over the last 30 yr) have remained unmonitored. Further, we identified complementary groups of reefs characterized by similar benthic community composition and similar coral cover trajectories since 1996. The mosaic of their distribution across the GBR reflects spatial variation in the cumulative impact of multiple acute disturbances, as well as spatial gradients in coral recovery potential. Representation and complementarity, in combination with other performance assessment criteria, can inform the cost-effective design and stratification of future surveys. Based on these results, we formulate recommendations to assist with the design of future long-term coral reef monitoring programs., (© 2020 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Microorganisms are fundamental drivers of biogeochemical cycling, though their contribution to coral reef ecosystem functioning is poorly understood. Here, we infer predictors of bacterioplankton community dynamics across surface-waters of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) through a meta-analysis, combining microbial with environmental data from the eReefs platform. Nutrient dynamics and temperature explained 41.4% of inter-seasonal and cross-shelf variation in bacterial assemblages. Bacterial families OCS155, Cryomorphaceae, Flavobacteriaceae, Synechococcaceae and Rhodobacteraceae dominated inshore reefs and their relative abundances positively correlated with nutrient loads. In contrast, Prochlorococcaceae negatively correlated with nutrients and became increasingly dominant towards outershelf reefs. Cyanobacteria in Prochlorococcaceae and Synechococcaceae families occupy complementary cross-shelf biogeochemical niches; their abundance ratios representing a potential indicator of GBR nutrient levels. One Flavobacteriaceae-affiliated taxa was putatively identified as diagnostic for ecosystem degradation. Establishing microbial observatories along GBR environmental gradients will facilitate robust assessments of microbial contributions to reef health and inform tipping-points in reef condition.

Outbreaks of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) have been responsible for 40% of the decline in coral cover on the GBR over the last 35 years. With the intensity and frequency of bleaching and cyclonic disturbances increasing, effectively managing these outbreaks may allow reefs an opportunity to recover from these cumulative impacts. Significant research effort has been directed toward developing regional scale models for COTS outbreaks, but these have yet to be fit explicitly to long term time series at the scale of the entire GBR, nor do previous research efforts incorporate explicit estimates of cumulative disturbance history. We developed a stage-based metapopulation model for COTS at a 1×1km resolution using long-term time series and modelled estimates of COTS larval connectivity, nutrient concentrations and important vital rates estimated from the literature. We coupled this metapopulation model to an existing spatially explicit model of coral cover growth, disturbance and recovery across the GBR from 1996 to 2017 to create a metacommunity model. Our results were validated against a spatially and temporally extensive dataset of COTS and coral cover across the GBR, predicting an average coral decline of 1.3% p.a. across the GBR, and accurately recreating coral cover trajectories (mean prediction error=7.1%) and COTS outbreak classification (accuracy=80%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that overall model accuracy was most sensitive to larval predation (boosted regression tree; relative importance=46.7%) and two parameters defining juvenile density dependent mortality (21.5% and 17.5%). The COTS model underestimated peak COTS densities particularly in the Swains and Townsville sectors of the reef, while overestimating COTS density during non-outbreak years. A better understanding of inter-annual variability in larval connectivity, and regionally variable density dependence for adult COTS life stages may improve model fit during these extreme outbreak events. Our model provides a platform to develop upon, and with improvements to estimates of larval connectivity and larval predation could be used to simulate the effects of implementing varying combinations of COTS interventions. This research highlights the importance of the early life history stages of COTS as drivers of outbreak dynamics, emphasizing the need for further empirical research to estimate these parameters., (© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Outbreaks of the coral eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthasts cf. solaris) occur in cyclical waves along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), contributing significantly to the decline in hard coral cover over the past 30 years. One main difficulty faced by scientists and managers alike, is understanding the relative importance of contributing factors to COTS outbreaks such as increased nutrients and water quality, larval connectivity, fishing pressure, and abiotic conditions. We analysed COTS abundances from the most recent outbreak (2010-2018) using both boosted regression trees and generalised additive models to identify key predictors of COTS outbreaks. We used this approach to predict the suitability of each reef on the GBR for COTS outbreaks at three different levels: (1) reefs with COTS present intermittently (Presence); (2) reefs with COTS widespread and present in most samples and (Prevalence) (3) reefs experiencing outbreak levels of COTS (Outbreak). We also compared the utility of two auto-covariates accounting for spatial autocorrelation among observations, built using weighted inverse distance and weighted larval connectivity to reefs supporting COTS populations, respectively. Boosted regression trees (BRT) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were combined in an ensemble model to reduce the effect of model uncertainty on predictions of COTS presence, prevalence and outbreaks. Our results from best performing models indicate that temperature (Degree Heating Week exposure: relative importance=13.1%) and flood plume exposure (13.0%) are the best predictors of COTS presence, variability in chlorophyll concentration (12.6%) and flood plume exposure (8.2%) best predicted COTS prevalence and larval connectivity potential (22.7%) and minimum sea surface temperature (8.0%) are the best predictors of COTS outbreaks. Whether the reef was open or closed to fishing, however, had no significant effect on either COTS presence, prevalence or outbreaks in BRT results (<0.5%). We identified major hotspots of COTS activity primarily on the mid shelf central GBR and on the southern Swains reefs. This study provides the first empirical comparison of the major hypotheses of COTS outbreaks and the first validated predictions of COTS outbreak potential at the GBR scale incorporating connectivity, nutrients, biophysical and spatial variables, providing a useful aid to management of this pest species on the GBR., (© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In its invasive range in Australia, the European rabbit threatens the persistence of native flora and fauna and damages agricultural production. Understanding its distribution and ecological niche is critical for developing management plans to reduce populations and avoid further biodiversity and economic losses.We developed an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) to determine the geographic range limits and habitat suitability of the rabbit in Australia. We examined the advantage of incorporating data collected by citizens (separately and jointly with expert data) and explored issues of spatial biases in occurrence data by implementing different approaches to generate pseudo-absences. We evaluated the skill of our model using three approaches: cross-validation, out-of-region validation, and evaluation of the covariate response curves according to expert knowledge of rabbit ecology.Combining citizen and expert occurrence data improved model skill based on cross-validation, spatially reproduced important aspects of rabbit ecology, and reduced the need to extrapolate results beyond the studied areas.Our ensemble model projects that rabbits are distributed across approximately two thirds of Australia. Annual maximum temperatures >25°C and annual minimum temperatures >10°C define, respectively, the southern and northern most range limits of its distribution. In the arid and central regions, close access to permanent water (≤~ 0.4 km) and reduced clay soil composition (~20%-50%) were the major factors influencing the probability of occurrence of rabbits. Synthesis and applications . Our results show that citizen science data can play an important role in managing invasive species by providing missing information on occurrences in regions not surveyed by experts because of logistics or financial constraints. The additional sampling effort provided by citizens can improve the capacity of SDMs to capture important elements of a species ecological niche, improving the capacity of statistical models to accurately predict the geographic range of invasive species., Competing Interests: None declared., (© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

With ongoing introductions into Australia since the 1700s, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) has become one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate pests, adversely impacting Australia's biodiversity and agroeconomy. To understand the population and range dynamics of the species and its impacts better, occurrence and abundance data have been collected by researchers and citizens from sites covering a broad spectrum of climatic and environmental conditions in Australia. The lack of a common and accessible repository for these data has, however, limited their use in determining important spatiotemporal drivers of the structure and dynamics of the geographical range of rabbits in Australia. To meet this need, we created the Australian National Rabbit Database, which combines more than 50 yr of historical and contemporary survey data collected from throughout the range of the species in Australia. The survey data, obtained from a suite of complementary monitoring methods, were combined with high-resolution weather, climate, and environmental information, and an assessment of data quality. The database provides records of rabbit occurrence (689,265 records) and abundance (51,241 records, >120 distinct sites) suitable for identifying the spatiotemporal drivers of the rabbit's distribution and for determining spatial patterns of variation in its key life-history traits, including maximum rates of population growth. Because all data are georeferenced and date stamped, they can be coupled with information from other databases and spatial layers to explore the potential effects of rabbit occurrence and abundance on Australia's native wildlife and agricultural production. The Australian National Rabbit Database is an important tool for understanding and managing the European rabbit in its invasive range and its effects on native biodiversity and agricultural production. It also provides a valuable resource for addressing questions related to the biology, success, and impacts of invasive species more generally. No copyright or proprietary restrictions are associated with the use of this data set other than citation of this Data Paper., (© 2019 The Authors. Ecology © 2019 The Ecological Society of America.)

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high-resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km 2 , predicting a mean annual coral loss of -0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner-shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no-take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Threats from climate change and other human pressures have led to widespread concern for the future of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Resilience of GBR reefs will be determined by their ability to resist disturbances and to recover from coral loss, generating intense interest in management actions that can moderate these processes. Here we quantify the effect of environmental and human drivers on the resilience of southern and central GBR reefs over the past two decades. Using a composite water quality index, we find that while reefs exposed to poor water quality are more resistant to coral bleaching, they recover from disturbance more slowly and are more susceptible to outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral disease-with a net negative impact on recovery and long-term hard coral cover. Given these conditions, we find that 6-17% improvement in water quality will be necessary to bring recovery rates in line with projected increases in coral bleaching among contemporary inshore and mid-shelf reefs. However, such reductions are unlikely to buffer projected bleaching effects among outer-shelf GBR reefs dominated by fast-growing, thermally sensitive corals, demonstrating practical limits to local management of the GBR against the effects of global warming.

This data compilation synthesizes 36 static environmental and spatial variables, and temporally explicit modeled estimates of three major disturbances to coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): (1) coral bleaching, (2) tropical cyclones, and (3) outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster cf. solaris. Data are provided on a standardized grid (0.01° × 0.01° ~ 1 × 1 km) for reef locations along the GBR, containing 15,928 pixels and excluding the northernmost sections (<12° S) where empirical data were sparse. This compilation provides a consistent and high-resolution characterization of the abiotic environment and disturbance regimes for GBR reef locations at a fine spatial scale to be used in the development of complex ecosystem models. Static estimates of environmental variables (e.g., depth, bed shear stress, average temperature, temperature variation) originally developed by the Commonwealth of Australia's Environment Research Facility (CERF) Marine Biodiversity Hub were provided by Geoscience Australia. Annual (1985-2017) disturbance estimates were either interpolated from empirical data (A. cf. solaris), predicted from proxy indicators (e.g., degree heating weeks [DHW] as a proxy for bleaching severity), or explicitly modeled (e.g., wave height model for each cyclone). This data set synthesizes some of the most recent advances in remote sensing and modeling of environmental conditions on the GBR; yet it is not exhaustive and we highlight areas that should be expanded through future research. The characterization of abiotic and disturbance regimes presented here represent an essential tool for the development of complex regional scale models of the GBR; preventing redundancy between working groups and promoting collaboration, innovation, and consistency. When using the data set, we kindly request that you cite this article and/or the articles cited in the reference section, recognizing the work that went into compiling the data together and the original authors' willingness to make it publicly available., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecology © 2018 The Ecological Society of America.)

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: With the development of increasingly effective antiemetic regimens, guideline adherence can prevent 70%-80% of chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) in patients with cancer., Objectives: This quality improvement project aims to increase rates of adherence to national guidelines and, ultimately, decrease rates of CINV experienced by patients receiving highly emetogenic chemotherapy., Methods: A retrospective chart analysis was performed. In-person education was provided to staff nurses and advanced practice providers on guidelines, followed by a survey immediately postintervention and again at three months., Findings: Prior to the intervention, 49% of patients were found to experience CINV, with only 7% receiving guideline-appropriate prophylaxis. At three months, 37% of patients experienced CINV, with 22% receiving appropriate prophylaxis.

Reliable abundance estimates for species are fundamental in ecology, fisheries, and conservation. Consequently, predictive models able to provide reliable estimates for un- or poorly-surveyed locations would prove a valuable tool for management. Based on commonly used environmental and physical predictors, we developed predictive models of total fish abundance and of abundance by fish family for ten representative taxonomic families for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using multiple temporal scenarios. We then tested if models developed for the GBR (reference system) could predict fish abundances at Ningaloo Reef (NR; target system), i.e., if these GBR models could be successfully transferred to NR. Models of abundance by fish family resulted in improved performance (e.g., 44.1% < R 2  < 50.6% for Acanthuridae) compared to total fish abundance (9% < R 2  < 18.6%). However, in contrast with previous transferability obtained for similar models for fish species richness from the GBR to NR, transferability for these fish abundance models was poor. When compared with observations of fish abundance collected in NR, our transferability results had low validation scores ( R 2  < 6%, p  > 0.05). High spatio-temporal variability of patterns in fish abundance at the family and population levels in both reef systems likely affected the transferability of these models. Inclusion of additional predictors with potential direct effects on abundance, such as local fishing effort or topographic complexity, may improve transferability of fish abundance models. However, observations of these local-scale predictors are often not available, and might thereby hinder studies on model transferability and its usefulness for conservation planning and management., Competing Interests: AIMS and CSIRO supported the field data collection and sampling design in the GBR and NR, respectively. The authors declare that there no additional competing interests.

The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, since the Last Glacial Maximum, are often used to determine whether patterns of diversity today are artefacts of past climate change. In the absence of high-temporal resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions, this is generally done by assuming that past climate change occurred at a linear pace between widely spaced (usually, ≥1,000 years) climate snapshots. We show here that this is a flawed assumption because regional climates have changed significantly across decades and centuries during glacial-interglacial cycles, likely causing rapid regional replacement of biota. We demonstrate how recent atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the climate of the past 21,000 years can provide credible estimates of the details of climate change on decadal to centennial timescales, showing that these details differ radically from what might be inferred from longer timescale information. High-temporal resolution information can provide more meaningful estimates of the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, the location and timing of drivers of physiological stress, and the extent of novel climates. They also produce new opportunities to directly investigate whether short-term climate variability is more important in shaping biodiversity patterns rather than gradual changes in long-term climatic means. Together, these more accurate measures of past climate instability are likely to bring about a better understanding of the role of palaeoclimatic change and variability in shaping current macroecological patterns in many regions of the world., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS; Acanthaster spp.) are an outbreaking pest among many Indo-Pacific coral reefs that cause substantial ecological and economic damage. Despite ongoing CoTS research, there remain critical gaps in observing CoTS populations and accurately estimating their numbers, greatly limiting understanding of the causes and sources of CoTS outbreaks. Here we address two of these gaps by (1) estimating the detectability of adult CoTS on typical underwater visual count (UVC) surveys using covariates and (2) inter-calibrating multiple data sources to estimate CoTS densities within the Cairns sector of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We find that, on average, CoTS detectability is high at 0.82 [0.77, 0.87] (median highest posterior density (HPD) and [95% uncertainty intervals]), with CoTS disc width having the greatest influence on detection. Integrating this information with coincident surveys from alternative sampling programs, we estimate CoTS densities in the Cairns sector of the GBR averaged 44 [41, 48] adults per hectare in 2014., Competing Interests: Steven Moon is an employee of Association of Marine Park Tourism Operators, Cairns, Australia.

Prioritising biodiversity conservation requires knowledge of where biodiversity occurs. Such knowledge, however, is often lacking. New technologies for collecting biological and physical data coupled with advances in modelling techniques could help address these gaps and facilitate improved management outcomes. Here we examined the utility of environmental data, obtained using different methods, for developing models of both uni- and multivariate biodiversity metrics. We tested which biodiversity metrics could be predicted best and evaluated the performance of predictor variables generated from three types of habitat data: acoustic multibeam sonar imagery, predicted habitat classification, and direct observer habitat classification. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model metrics of fish species richness, abundance and biomass, and multivariate regression trees (MRT) to model biomass and abundance of fish functional groups. We compared model performance using different sets of predictors and estimated the relative influence of individual predictors. Models of total species richness and total abundance performed best; those developed for endemic species performed worst. Abundance models performed substantially better than corresponding biomass models. In general, BRT and MRTs developed using predicted habitat classifications performed less well than those using multibeam data. The most influential individual predictor was the abiotic categorical variable from direct observer habitat classification and models that incorporated predictors from direct observer habitat classification consistently outperformed those that did not. Our results show that while remotely sensed data can offer considerable utility for predictive modelling, the addition of direct observer habitat classification data can substantially improve model performance. Thus it appears that there are aspects of marine habitats that are important for modelling metrics of fish biodiversity that are not fully captured by remotely sensed data. As such, the use of remotely sensed data to model biodiversity represents a compromise between model performance and data availability.

With marine biodiversity declining globally at accelerating rates, maximising the effectiveness of conservation has become a key goal for local, national and international regulators. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been widely advocated for conserving and managing marine biodiversity yet, despite extensive research, their benefits for conserving non-target species and wider ecosystem functions remain unclear. Here, we demonstrate that MPAs can increase the resilience of coral reef communities to natural disturbances, including coral bleaching, coral diseases, Acanthaster planci outbreaks and storms. Using a 20-year time series from Australia's Great Barrier Reef, we show that within MPAs, (1) reef community composition was 21-38% more stable; (2) the magnitude of disturbance impacts was 30% lower and (3) subsequent recovery was 20% faster that in adjacent unprotected habitats. Our results demonstrate that MPAs can increase the resilience of marine communities to natural disturbance possibly through herbivory, trophic cascades and portfolio effects., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.

Surrogate concepts are used in all sub-disciplines of environmental science. However, controversy remains regarding the extent to which surrogates are useful for resolving environmental problems. Here, we argue that conflicts about the utility of surrogates (and the related concepts of indicators and proxies) often reflect context-specific differences in trade-offs between measurement accuracy and practical constraints. By examining different approaches for selecting and applying surrogates, we identify five trade-offs that correspond to key points of contention in the application of surrogates. We then present an 8-step Adaptive Surrogacy Framework that incorporates cross-disciplinary perspectives from a wide spectrum of the environmental sciences, aiming to unify surrogate concepts across disciplines and applications. Our synthesis of the science of surrogates is intended as a first step towards fully leveraging knowledge accumulated across disciplines, thus consolidating lessons learned so that they may be accessible to all those operating in different fields, yet facing similar hurdles., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Marine organisms are simultaneously exposed to anthropogenic stressors with likely interactive effects, including synergisms in which the combined effects of multiple stressors are greater than the sum of individual effects. Early life stages of marine organisms are potentially vulnerable to the stressors associated with global change, but identifying general patterns across studies, species and response variables is challenging. This review represents the first meta-analysis of multistressor studies to target early marine life stages (embryo to larvae), particularly between temperature, salinity and pH as these are the best studied. Knowledge gaps in research on multiple abiotic stressors and early life stages are also identified. The meta-analysis yielded several key results: (1) Synergistic interactions (65% of individual tests) are more common than additive (17%) or antagonistic (17%) interactions. (2) Larvae are generally more vulnerable than embryos to thermal and pH stress. (3) Survival is more likely than sublethal responses to be affected by thermal, salinity and pH stress. (4) Interaction types vary among stressors, ontogenetic stages and biological responses, but they are more consistent among phyla. (5) Ocean acidification is a greater stressor for calcifying than noncalcifying larvae. Despite being more ecologically realistic than single-factor studies, multifactorial studies may still oversimplify complex systems, and so meta-analyses of the data from them must be cautiously interpreted with regard to extrapolation to field conditions. Nonetheless, our results identify taxa with early life stages that may be particularly vulnerable (e.g. molluscs, echinoderms) or robust (e.g. arthropods, cnidarians) to abiotic stress. We provide a list of recommendations for future multiple stressor studies, particularly those focussed on early marine life stages., (© 2014 Commonwealth of Australia. Global change Biology © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT) within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone) predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna). Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and conservation planning, and for predicting future distributions of deep-sea snappers.

Reprogramming somatic cells from one cell fate to another can generate specific neurons suitable for disease modeling. To maximize the utility of patient-derived neurons, they must model not only disease-relevant cell classes, but also the diversity of neuronal subtypes found in vivo and the pathophysiological changes that underlie specific clinical diseases. We identified five transcription factors that reprogram mouse and human fibroblasts into noxious stimulus-detecting (nociceptor) neurons. These recapitulated the expression of quintessential nociceptor-specific functional receptors and channels found in adult mouse nociceptor neurons, as well as native subtype diversity. Moreover, the derived nociceptor neurons exhibited TrpV1 sensitization to the inflammatory mediator prostaglandin E2 and the chemotherapeutic drug oxaliplatin, modeling the inherent mechanisms underlying inflammatory pain hypersensitivity and painful chemotherapy-induced neuropathy. Using fibroblasts from patients with familial dysautonomia (hereditary sensory and autonomic neuropathy type III), we found that the technique was able to reveal previously unknown aspects of human disease phenotypes in vitro.

Although many distinct mutations in a variety of genes are known to cause Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), it remains poorly understood how they selectively impact motor neuron biology and whether they converge on common pathways to cause neuronal degeneration. Here, we have combined reprogramming and stem cell differentiation approaches with genome engineering and RNA sequencing to define the transcriptional and functional changes that are induced in human motor neurons by mutant SOD1. Mutant SOD1 protein induced a transcriptional signature indicative of increased oxidative stress, reduced mitochondrial function, altered subcellular transport, and activation of the ER stress and unfolded protein response pathways. Functional studies demonstrated that these pathways were perturbed in a manner dependent on the SOD1 mutation. Finally, interrogation of stem-cell-derived motor neurons produced from ALS patients harboring a repeat expansion in C9orf72 indicates that at least a subset of these changes are more broadly conserved in ALS., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease of the motor nervous system. We show using multielectrode array and patch-clamp recordings that hyperexcitability detected by clinical neurophysiological studies of ALS patients is recapitulated in induced pluripotent stem cell-derived motor neurons from ALS patients harboring superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1), C9orf72, and fused-in-sarcoma mutations. Motor neurons produced from a genetically corrected but otherwise isogenic SOD1(+/+) stem cell line do not display the hyperexcitability phenotype. SOD1(A4V/+) ALS patient-derived motor neurons have reduced delayed-rectifier potassium current amplitudes relative to control-derived motor neurons, a deficit that may underlie their hyperexcitability. The Kv7 channel activator retigabine both blocks the hyperexcitability and improves motor neuron survival in vitro when tested in SOD1 mutant ALS cases. Therefore, electrophysiological characterization of human stem cell-derived neurons can reveal disease-related mechanisms and identify therapeutic candidates., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The Vulnerable (IUCN) whale shark spans warm and temperate waters around the globe. However, their present-day and possible future global distribution has never been predicted. Using 30 years (1980-2010) of whale shark observations recorded by tuna purse-seiners fishing in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we applied generalized linear mixed-effects models to test the hypothesis that similar environmental covariates predict whale shark occurrence in all major ocean basins. We derived global predictors from satellite images for chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature, and bathymetric charts for depth, bottom slope and distance to shore. We randomly generated pseudo-absences within the area covered by the fisheries, and included fishing effort as an offset to account for potential sampling bias. We predicted sea surface temperatures for 2070 using an ensemble of five global circulation models under a no climate-policy reference scenario, and used these to predict changes in distribution. The full model (excluding standard deviation of sea surface temperature) had the highest relative statistical support (wAICc  = 0.99) and explained ca. 60% of the deviance. Habitat suitability was mainly driven by spatial variation in bathymetry and sea surface temperature among oceans, although these effects differed slightly among oceans. Predicted changes in sea surface temperature resulted in a slight shift of suitable habitat towards the poles in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (ca. 5°N and 3-8°S, respectively) accompanied by an overall range contraction (2.5-7.4% and 1.1-6.3%, respectively). Predicted changes in the Pacific Ocean were small. Assuming that whale shark environmental requirements and human disturbances (i.e. no stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions) remain similar, we show that warming sea surface temperatures might promote a net retreat from current aggregation areas and an overall redistribution of the species., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The 'diversity-stability hypothesis', in which higher species diversity within biological communities buffers the risk of ecological collapse, is now generally accepted. However, empirical evidence for a relationship between β-diversity (spatial turnover in community structure) and temporal stability in community structure remains equivocal, despite important implications for theoretical ecology and conservation biology. Here, we report strong β-diversity-stability relationships across a broad sample of fish taxa on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. These relationships were robust to random sampling error and spatial and environmental factors, such as latitude, reef size and isolation. While β-diversity was positively associated with temporal stability at the community level, the relationship was negative for some taxa, for example surgeonfishes (Acanthuridae), one of the most abundant reef fish families. This demonstrates that the β-diversity-stability relationship should not be indiscriminately assumed for all taxa, but that a species' risk of extirpation in response to disturbance is likely to be taxon specific and trait based. By combining predictions of spatial and temporal turnover across the study area with observations in marine-protected areas, we conclude that protection alone does not necessarily confer temporal stability and that taxon-specific considerations will improve the outcome of conservation efforts.

Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Ten years have passed since the last synopsis of whale shark Rhincodon typus biogeography. While a recent review of the species' biology and ecology summarized the vast data collected since then, it is clear that information on population geographic connectivity, migration and demography of R. typus is still limited and scattered. Understanding R. typus migratory behaviour is central to its conservation management considering the genetic evidence suggesting local aggregations are connected at the generational scale over entire ocean basins. By collating available data on sightings, tracked movements and distribution information, this review provides evidence for the hypothesis of broad-scale connectivity among populations, and generates a model describing how the world's R. typus are part of a single, global meta-population. Rhincodon typus occurrence timings and distribution patterns make possible a connection between several aggregation sites in the Indian Ocean. The present conceptual model and validating data lend support to the hypothesis that R. typus are able to move among the three largest ocean basins with a minimum total travelling time of around 2-4 years. The model provides a worldwide perspective of possible R. typus migration routes, and suggests a modified focus for additional research to test its predictions. The framework can be used to trim the hypotheses for R. typus movements and aggregation timings, thereby isolating possible mating and breeding areas that are currently unknown. This will assist endeavours to predict the longer-term response of the species to ocean warming and changing patterns of human-induced mortality., (© 2013 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

The present study aimed at exploring the diversity of coral reef fishes in 10 French Polynesian atolls and sought to determine which environmental variables best explain diversity. A total of 136,614 fish belonging to 302 species were recorded in 1995 and 1996. The stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the best model of variation in species richness (55% of total variation) incorporated three geomorphologic descriptors (atoll perimeter, submerged rim and abundance of pinnacles) and two habitat descriptors (percentage cover of dead coral and sand). The best model of variation in Shannon-Wiener's species diversity index (43% of total variation) included two geomorphologic descriptors (mean depth and level of water exchange) and three habitat descriptors (percentage cover of mud, dead coral and gravel). Overall, our survey recognises the importance of both geomorphologic and habitat descriptors as leading contenders in explaining biodiversity in relation to energy input and habitat area hypothesis., (Copyright © 2012 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.)

Cost-effective proxies of biodiversity and species abundance, applicable across a range of spatial scales, are needed for setting conservation priorities and planning action. We outline a rapid, efficient, and low-cost measure of spectral signal from digital habitat images that, being an effective proxy for habitat complexity, correlates with species diversity and requires little image processing or interpretation. We validated this method for coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, across a range of spatial scales (1 m to 10 km), using digital photographs of benthic communities at the transect scale and high-resolution Landsat satellite images at the reef scale. We calculated an index of image-derived spatial heterogeneity, the mean information gain (MIG), for each scale and related it to univariate (species richness and total abundance summed across species) and multivariate (species abundance matrix) measures of fish community structure, using two techniques that account for the hierarchical structure of the data: hierarchical (mixed-effect) linear models and distance-based partial redundancy analysis. Over the length and breadth of the GBR, MIG alone explained up to 29% of deviance in fish species richness, 33% in total fish abundance, and 25% in fish community structure at multiple scales, thus demonstrating the possibility of easily and rapidly exploiting spatial information contained in digital images to complement existing methods for inferring diversity and abundance patterns among fish communities. Thus, the spectral signal of unprocessed remotely sensed images provides an efficient and low-cost way to optimize the design of surveys used in conservation planning. In data-sparse situations, this simple approach also offers a viable method for rapid assessment of potential local biodiversity, particularly where there is little local capacity in terms of skills or resources for mounting in-depth biodiversity surveys.

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.

The use of biological surrogates as proxies for biodiversity patterns is gaining popularity, particularly in marine systems where field surveys can be expensive and species richness high. Yet, uncertainty regarding their applicability remains because of inconsistency of definitions, a lack of standard methods for estimating effectiveness, and variable spatial scales considered. We present a Bayesian meta-analysis of the effectiveness of biological surrogates in marine ecosystems. Surrogate effectiveness was defined both as the proportion of surrogacy tests where predictions based on surrogates were better than random (i.e., low probability of making a Type I error; P) and as the predictability of targets using surrogates (R(2)). A total of 264 published surrogacy tests combined with prior probabilities elicited from eight international experts demonstrated that the habitat, spatial scale, type of surrogate and statistical method used all influenced surrogate effectiveness, at least according to either P or R(2). The type of surrogate used (higher-taxa, cross-taxa or subset taxa) was the best predictor of P, with the higher-taxa surrogates outperforming all others. The marine habitat was the best predictor of R(2), with particularly low predictability in tropical reefs. Surrogate effectiveness was greatest for higher-taxa surrogates at a <10-km spatial scale, in low-complexity marine habitats such as soft bottoms, and using multivariate-based methods. Comparisons with terrestrial studies in terms of the methods used to study surrogates revealed that marine applications still ignore some problems with several widely used statistical approaches to surrogacy. Our study provides a benchmark for the reliable use of biological surrogates in marine ecosystems, and highlights directions for future development of biological surrogates in predicting biodiversity.

Temporal variance in species abundance, a potential driver of extinction, is linked to mean abundance through Taylor's power law, the empirical observation of a linear log-log relationship with a slope between 1 and 2 for most species. Here we test the idea that the slope of Taylor's power law can vary both among species and spatially as a function of habitat area and isolation. We used the world's most extensive database of coral reef fish communities comprising a 15-year series of fish abundances on 43 reefs of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Greater temporal variances were observed at small and isolated reefs, and lower variances at large and connected ones. The combination of reef area and isolation was associated with an even greater effect on temporal variances, indicating strong empirical support for the idea that populations on small and isolated reefs will succumb more frequently to local extinction via higher temporal variability, resulting in lower resilience at the community level. Based on these relationships, we constructed a regional predictive map of the dynamic fragility of coral reef fish assemblages on the Great Barrier Reef.

Understanding spatial variations in alpha, beta, and gamma coral reef fish diversity, as well as both local community and regional metacommunity structures, is critical for science and conservation of coral reef ecosystems. This quest implies that fish-habitat relationships are characterized across different spatial scales. Remote sensing allows now for a routine description of habitats from global-regional to detailed reef scales, thus theoretically offering access to hierarchical spatial analysis at multiple scales. To judge the progress in using remotely sensed habitat variables for reef fish study, existing peer-reviewed papers on the subject are reviewed. We tabulated the significant fish-habitat relationships given the different study sites, fish and habitat variables, statistical analysis, sampling efforts and scales. Studies generally do not corroborate each other. Instead, the exercise provides a diversity of thematic results from which lessons remain equivocal. It is thus justified to recommend more systematic and hierarchical remote-sensing based research in the future. We advocate the use of remote-sensing early in the design of the fish study, as part of a coherent conceptual scheme spanning all spatial scales.

A total of 115 suicide cases dealt with by St. Pancras Coroner's Court, London, UK were studied in order to determine what patterns exist regarding the age and gender of the victims and chosen method of suicide. The results were compared with those of a 1998 study of suicides in England and Wales commissioned by the UK Home Office. It was found that suicides in the male population are approximately twice as common as female victims of suicide. In terms of gross number of cases, the peak age group for both males and females resorting to suicide was found to be the 15-44 age group. When the results were standardised according to 2001 census data, however, the most vulnerable age group per head of population for both sexes was 75 and over. Good agreement was found between the results of this study and those of the Home Office Study.

Endogenous thyroid receptor hormones 3,5,3',5'-tetraiodo-l-thyronine (T(4), 1) and 3,5,3'-triiodo-l-thyronine (T(3), 2) exert a significant effects on growth, development, and homeostasis in mammals. They regulate important genes in intestinal, skeletal, and cardiac muscles, the liver, and the central nervous system, influence overall metabolic rate, cholesterol and triglyceride levels, and heart rate, and affect mood and overall sense of well being. The literature suggests many or most effects of thyroid hormones on the heart, in particular on the heart rate and rhythm, are mediated through the TRalpha(1) isoform, while most actions of the hormones on the liver and other tissues are mediated more through the TRbeta(1) isoform of the receptor. Some effects of thyroid hormones may be therapeutically useful in nonthyroid disorders if adverse effects can be minimized or eliminated. These potentially useful features include weight reduction for the treatment of obesity, cholesterol lowering for treating hyperlipidemia, amelioration of depression, and stimulation of bone formation in osteoporosis. Prior attempts to utilize thyroid hormones pharmacologically to treat these disorders have been limited by manifestations of hyperthyroidism and, in particular, cardiovascular toxicity. Consequently, development of thyroid hormone receptor agonists that are selective for the beta-isoform could lead to safe therapies for these common disorders while avoiding cardiotoxicity. We describe here the synthesis and evaluation of a series of novel TR ligands, which are selective for TRbeta(1) over TRalpha(1). These ligands could potentially be useful for treatment of various disorders as outlined above. From a series of homologous R(1)-substituted carboxylic acid derivatives, increasing chain length was found to have a profound effect on affinity and selectivity in a radioreceptor binding assay for the human thyroid hormone receptors alpha(1) and beta(1) (TRalpha(1) and TRbeta(2)) as well as a reporter cell assay employing CHOK1-cells (Chinese hamster ovary cells) stably transfected with hTRalpha(1) or hTRbeta(1) and an alkaline phosphatase reporter-gene downstream thyroid response element (TRAFalpha(1) and TRAFbeta(1)). Affinity increases in the order formic, acetic, and propionic acid, while beta-selectivity is highest when the R(1) position is substituted with acetic acid. Within this series 3,5-dibromo-4-[(4-hydroxy-3-isopropylphenoxy)phenyl]acetic acid (11a) and 3,5-dichloro-4-[(4-hydroxy-3-isopropylphenoxy)phenyl]acetic acid (15) were found to reveal the most promising in vitro data based on isoform selectivity and were selected for further in vivo studies. The effect of 2, 11a, and 15 in a cholesterol-fed rat model was monitored including potencies for heart rate (ED(15)), cholesterol (ED(50)), and TSH (ED(50)). Potency for tachycardia was significantly reduced for the TRbeta selective compounds 11a and 15 compared with 2, while both 11a and 15 retained the cholesterol-lowering potency of 2. This left an approximately 10-fold therapeutic window between heart rate and cholesterol, which is consistent with the action of ligands that are approximately 10-fold more selective for TRbeta(1). We also report the X-ray crystallographic structures of the ligand binding domains of TRalpha and TRbeta in complex with 15. These structures reveal that the single amino acid difference in the ligand binding pocket (Ser277 in TRalpha or Asn331 in TRbeta) results in a slightly different hydrogen bonding pattern that may explain the increased beta-selectivity of 15.