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Objectives: Recognized the value of gestational diabetes (GD) as a health problem, our aim in this work has been to analyze the diagnostic performance of the different today's existing criteria (GEDE, O'Sullivan and Carpenter) after the overload of 100 g of glucose and revise how to increase its efficiency., Materials and Methods: We carried out a description of all the variables. In the analytical phase of the work, we used Pearson's Chi square to see if there were differences in the percentage of cases collected in each health center and the proportions contrast test to study the differences between the experimental prevalence. We completed binary logistic regression models using as result variable having or not having gestational diabetes (yes/no) and as predictors the four measurements of the curve with 100 g of glucose overload. To decide which model was better, the stepwise backward-forward analysis and the surface of the ROC curve generated by each of them were considered., Results: We obtained a sample of 170 pregnant women from six different Primary Care Area of Seville health centers who had shown a positive O'Sullivan test with a median age of 35 years. There were significant differences in the prevalence proportions according to the criteria used: GEDE/O'Sullivan p < 0.001; GEDE/Carpenter p < 0.001. Logistic models with three and four predictor variables were equal in discriminatory diagnostic capacity when the GEDE criteria were used (area under the ROC curve = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.98). The back-forward stepwise analysis stayed with the three-variable model as the most parsimonious. The same did not occur when applying the other two criteria., Conclusions: Regarding an observational design, we state that there are significant differences in the prevalence proportions observed according to the criteria applied (p < 0.001) and we can also support that using the GEDE criteria, the taking of the third hour could be dispensed with, based on Bayesian criteria and the application of the ROC curve analysis., (Copyright © 2021 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Extreme prematurity is associated with high mortality rates. The probability of death at different points in time is a priority for professionals and parents, and needs to be established on an individual basis. The aim of this study is to carry out a systematic review of predictive models of mortality in premature infants that have been published recently., Methods: A double search was performed for article published in PubMed on models predicting mortality in premature neonates. The population studied were premature neonates with a gestational age of ≤30 weeks and / or a weight at birth of ≤1500g. Works published with new models from June 2010 to July 2019 after a systematic review by Medlock (2011) were included. An assessment was made of the population, characteristics of the model, variables used, measurements of functioning, and validation., Results: Of the 7744 references (1st search) and 1435 (2nd search) found, 31 works were selected, with 8 new models finally being included. Five models (62.5%) were developed in North America and 2 (25%) in Europe. A sequential model (Ambalavanan) enables predictions of mortality to be made at birth, 7, 28 days of life, and 36 weeks post-menstrual. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed on 87.5% of the models. The population discrimination was measured using Odds Ratio (75%) and the area under the curve (50%). "Internal Validation" had been carried out on 5 models. Three models can be accessed on-line. There are no predictive models validated in Spain., Conclusions: The making of decisions based on predictive models can lead to the care given to the premature infant being more individualised and with a better use of resources. Predictive models of mortality in premature neonates in Spain need to be developed., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Background: Patient homecare with multiple morbidities is an increasingly common occurrence. The caregiver strain index is tool in the form of questionnaire that is designed to measure the perceived burden of those who care for their families. The aim of this study is to construct a diagnostic nomogram of informal caregiver burden using data from a predictive model., Methods: The model was drawn up using binary logistic regression and the questionnaire items as dichotomous factors. The dependent variable was the final score obtained with the questionnaire but categorised in accordance with that in the literature. Scores between 0 and 6 were labelled as "no" (no caregiver stress) and at or greater than 7 as "yes". The version 3.1.1R statistical software was used. To construct confidence intervals for the ROC curve 2000 boot strap replicates were used., Results: A sample of 67 caregivers was obtained. A diagnosing nomogram was made up with its calibration graph (Brier scaled = 0.686, Nagelkerke R 2 =0.791), and the corresponding ROC curve (area under the curve=0.962)., Findings: The predictive model generated using binary logistic regression and the nomogram contain four items (1, 4, 5 and 9) of the questionnaire. R plotting functions allow a very good solution for validating a model like this. The area under the ROC curve (0.96; 95% CI: 0.994-0.941) achieves a high discriminative value. Calibration also shows high goodness of fit values, suggesting that it may be clinically useful in community nursing and geriatric establishments., (Copyright © 2015 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Background: In medicine and biomedical research, statistical techniques like logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression are widely known. The main objective is to describe the evolution of multivariate techniques used in observational studies indexed in PubMed (1970-2013), and to check the requirements of the STROBE guidelines in the author guidelines in Spanish journals indexed in PubMed., Methods: A targeted PubMed search was performed to identify papers that used logistic linear Cox and Poisson models. Furthermore, a review was also made of the author guidelines of journals published in Spain and indexed in PubMed and Web of Science., Results: Only 6.1% of the indexed manuscripts included a term related to multivariate analysis, increasing from 0.14% in 1980 to 12.3% in 2013. In 2013, 6.7, 2.5, 3.5, and 0.31% of the manuscripts contained terms related to logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression, respectively. On the other hand, 12.8% of journals author guidelines explicitly recommend to follow the STROBE guidelines, and 35.9% recommend the CONSORT guideline., Conclusions: A low percentage of Spanish scientific journals indexed in PubMed include the STROBE statement requirement in the author guidelines. Multivariate regression models in published observational studies such as logistic regression, linear, Cox and Poisson are increasingly used both at international level, as well as in journals published in Spanish., (Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Background: The financing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is generally determined by the cost incurred in the previous year, the number of patients on treatment, and the evidence-based recommendations, but not the clinical characteristics of the population., Objective: To establish a score relating the cost of ART and patient clinical complexity in order to understand the costing differences between hospitals in the region that could be explained by the clinical complexity of their population., Methods: Retrospective analysis of patients receiving ART in a tertiary hospital between 2009 and 2011. Factors potentially associated with a higher cost of ART were assessed by bivariate and multivariate analysis. Two predictive models of "high-cost" were developed. The normalized estimated (adjusted for the complexity scores) costs were calculated and compared with the normalized real costs., Results: In the Hospital Index, 631 (16.8%) of the 3758 patients receiving ART were responsible for a "high-cost" subgroup, defined as the highest 25% of spending on ART. Baseline variables that were significant predictors of high cost in the Clinic-B model in the multivariate analysis were: route of transmission of HIV, AIDS criteria, Spanish nationality, year of initiation of ART, CD4+ lymphocyte count nadir, and number of hospital admissions. The Clinic-B score ranged from 0 to 13, and the mean value (5.97) was lower than the overall mean value of the four hospitals (6.16)., Conclusions: The clinical complexity of the HIV patient influences the cost of ART. The Clinic-B and Clinic-BF scores predicted patients with high cost of ART and could be used to compare and allocate costs corrected for the patient clinical complexity., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: There are few studies on iron deficiency anemia (IDA) after non-variceal acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in patients without portal hypertension., Objectives: To define the incidence of IDA after UGIB, to characterize the predictive factors for IDA and to design algorithms that could help physicians identify those patients who could benefit from iron therapy., Material and Method: We registered 391 patients with UGIB between April 2007 and May 2009. Patients with portal hypertension and those with clinical or/and biological conditions that could affect the ferrokinetic pattern were excluded. Blood analyses were performed, including ferric parameters upon admission, on the 5th day, and on the 30th day after the hemorrhage episode. We used a multiple logistic regression model and a classification and regression tree model., Results: A total of 124 patients were included, of which 76 (61.3%) developed IDA 30 days after UGIB. The predictive variables were age >75 years (P=.037; OR 3.9; 95% CI: 1.3-11.6), initial urea level >80mg/dL (P=.027; OR 2.9; 95% CI: 1.1-7.6), initial ferritin level ≤65ng/dL (P=.002; OR 7.6; 95% CI: 2.9-18.5), initial hemoglobin level ≤100g/L (P=.003; OR 3.2; 95% CI: 1.3-8.0), hemoglobin level on the 5th day ≤100g/L (P<.001; OR 14.9; 95% CI: 3.6-61.1) and the value of the transferrin saturation index on the 5th day <10% (p<0.001; OR 7.2; 95% CI: 2.6-20.3)., Conclusions: Most patients with UGIB developed IDA 30 days after the episode. Identification of the predictive factors for IDA may help to establish guidelines for the administration of iron therapy., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To determine the pharyngolaryngeal anomalies not usually included in the evaluation of difficult airway, in order to investigate the influence of these anomalies in the prediction of difficult intubation. To do this, indirect laryngoscopy with a 70° rigid laryngoscope was performed on all patients during the preoperative period., Methods: This is an observational, prospective study on 300 consecutive patients who were scheduled for endotracheal intubation under general anesthesia. In addition to assessing the airway in the preoperative period by demographic and clinical predictors of difficult airway, rigid indirect laryngoscopy was performed to diagnose pharyngolaryngeal anomalies. Later, under general anesthesia and direct laryngoscopy it was checked to see if there was difficulty in intubating the larynx, and its association with all previous variables was investigated. A logistic regression model for prediction purposes was developed, and its power of discrimination was achieved by assessing the area under the curve., Results: During the examination by indirect laryngoscopy 46 anomalies were found, which were as follows: 31 abnormalities of the epiglottis (22 omega epiglottis, 9 flaccid or hypertrophic epiglottis); 6 findings of hypertrophic lingual tonsils, 3 cases of upper airway tumors, and 6 patients with tongue disorders. Intubation difficulty was found in 14 cases (4.66%). The regression model found, and its coefficients to develop it were: f(x)=1.322+(2.173 thyromental distance <6.5 cm)+(1.813 omega epiglottis)-(1.310*cm opening mouth). Global power of discrimination was 0.83, with a 95% confidence interval from 0.709 to 0.952)., Conclusion: Indirect laryngoscopy allowed pharyngolaryngeal anomalies to be diagnosed, including omega epiglottis, which was one of the variables included in the logistic regression model., (Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To develop a predictive model for the risk of high consumption of healthcare resources, and assess the ability of the model to identify complex chronic patients., Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed within a healthcare management organization by using individual data from 2 consecutive years (88,795 people). The dependent variable consisted of healthcare costs above the 95th percentile (P95), including all services provided by the organization and pharmaceutical consumption outside of the institution. The predictive variables were age, sex, morbidity-based on clinical risk groups (CRG)-and selected data from previous utilization (use of hospitalization, use of high-cost drugs in ambulatory care, pharmaceutical expenditure). A univariate descriptive analysis was performed. We constructed a logistic regression model with a 95% confidence level and analyzed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and the area under the ROC curve (AUC)., Results: Individuals incurring costs >P95 accumulated 44% of total healthcare costs and were concentrated in ACRG3 (aggregated CRG level 3) categories related to multiple chronic diseases. All variables were statistically significant except for sex. The model had a sensitivity of 48.4% (CI: 46.9%-49.8%), specificity of 97.2% (CI: 97.0%-97.3%), PPV of 46.5% (CI: 45.0%-47.9%), and an AUC of 0.897 (CI: 0.892 to 0.902)., Conclusions: High consumption of healthcare resources is associated with complex chronic morbidity. A model based on age, morbidity, and prior utilization is able to predict high-cost risk and identify a target population requiring proactive care., (Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To determine the association between family and social relationships and School Bullying (SB) among peers in public education institutions in four municipalities of the department of Valle del Cauca, Colombia, during 2009., Methods: A case-control study matched by sex and educational institution was carried out. The study population came from a secondary database provided by the Departof Health Secretaryhealth, which consisted of data gathered in a survey of schoolchildren enrolled in grades 6 to 11. The CISNEROS scale and the Family APGAR test were applied to measure outcome and exposure variables. A conditional logistic regression model was obtained to explain SB., Results: It was found that schoolchildren living with a family where verbal and physical violence prevails, as well as in a hostile neighborhood, are more vulnerable to SB. The probability of being an SB victim is explained by: family dysfunction (OR=2.67; 95%CI, 1.05-6.82), verbal aggression at home (OR=2.81; 95%CI, 1.45-5.46), physical punishing parents (OR=2.53; 95%CI, 1.12-5.75), and neighbors who are physically aggressive to each other (OR=1.87; 95% CI, 1.00-3.56)., Conclusions: The study confirmed that reported by Lopez, who suggested that victimization and school rejection in adolescence is related to factors outside the classroom, such as the quality of communication between parents and children. As regards family influence in the SB, Bowes indicates that a positive family atmosphere is significantly associated with the resilience of school victimization. Furthermore, being physically punished by parents generates low self-esteem in the schoolchild that leads to lack of self-protective attitudes to the attacks that occur within the school., (Copyright © 2013 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.)