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To support the achievement of the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C global warming threshold, China aims to peak CO 2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. However, the specific carbon neutrality pathway remains to be designed. By applying a refined Chinese version of Global Change Analysis Model, this study examines implications of four illustrative carbon neutrality scenarios for aligning China's energy system with below 1.5 °C by 2100. The results feature a trade-off between China's ambition to transform its energy system toward mid-century and its reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) after carbon neutrality. From a full time perspective until 2100, accelerating carbon neutrality could help China's energy system align with below 1.5 °C. Compared to a 2060 carbon neutrality scenario, a 2050 carbon neutrality scenario reduces China's total mitigation costs between 2021 and 2100 by 1.04% of GDP, reduces reliance on CDR by 36%, and provides some additional co-benefits, such as reduced air pollutants. However, special attention needs to be paid to the fact that accelerating carbon neutrality poses greater challenges and costs to China in overcoming development inertia and restructuring its energy system over the next 30-40 years. Compared to a 2060 carbon neutrality scenario, a 2050 scenario increases China's mitigation costs by a factor of 1.13 between 2021 and 2050. This study suggests through quantitative evidence that China could accelerate emissions reductions and energy system transformation to achieve carbon neutrality, based on its national circumstances and capabilities and international support., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: Conflict of interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ratcheting up the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve the Paris Agreement goals requires a better understanding of the enablers and barriers behind NDC formulation. However, existing quantitative analyses on the drivers of NDCs from an anthropological perspective are elusive. This study proposes both a conceptual framework and empirical analysis of how cultural values link with the pledged NDCs. The findings show that individualism (IDV) is a significant and robust predictor for the mitigation levels of NDCs, after controlling for affluence level, renewable energy proportion, democracy and other socioeconomic factors. For every 10-point increase in the IDV score (say from the score of Canada to Australia or from the score of Vietnam to Mexico), the committed per-capita emission in 2030 relative to 1990 levels decrease by 14%-22%. However, such a correlation is absent when assessing the mitigation ambitions using various fair benchmarks. This study underscores the necessity of considering more cultural context and nuances in tackling common climate problems, and advocates for developing tailored climate communication strategies to enhance the NDCs., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declared that they have no conflicts of interest to this work., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In the international community, there are many appeals to ratcheting up the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), in order to narrow the 2030 global emissions gap with the Paris goals. Near-term mitigation has a direct impact on the required efforts beyond 2030 to control warming within 2°C or 1.5°C successfully. In this study, implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions until 2100 for aligning with the Paris goals, are quantified using a refined Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with six mitigation scenarios. Results show that intensifying near-term mitigation will alleviate China's transitional challenges during 2030-2050 and long-term reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR). Each five-year earlier peaking of CO 2 allows almost a five-year later carbon neutrality of China's energy system. To align with 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030 reduces the requirement of CDR over the century by 17% (13%). Intensifying near-term mitigation also tends to have economic benefits to China's Paris-aligned energy transitions. Under 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030, with larger near-term mitigation costs by 1.3 (1.6) times, has the potential to reduce China's aggregate mitigation costs throughout the century by 4% (6%). Although in what way China's NDC is to be updated is determined by decision-makers, transitional and economic benefits suggest China to try its best to pursue more ambitious near-term mitigation in accordance with its latest national circumstances and development needs., (© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)