Search

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, provision of non-COVID healthcare was recurrently severely disrupted. The objective was to determine whether disruption of non-COVID hospital use, either due to cancelled, postponed, or forgone care, during the first pandemic year of COVID-19 impacted socioeconomic groups differently compared with pre-pandemic use., Methods: National population registry data, individually linked with data of non-COVID hospital use in the Netherlands (2017-2020). in non-institutionalised population of 25-79 years, in standardised household income deciles (1 = low, 10 = high) as proxy for socioeconomic status. Generic outcome measures included patients who received hospital care (dichotomous): outpatient contact, day treatment, inpatient clinic, and surgery. Specific procedures were included as examples of frequently performed elective and acute procedures, e.g.: elective knee/hip replacement and cataract surgery, and acute percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). Relative risks (RR) for hospital use were reported as outcomes from generalised linear regression models (binomial) with log-link. An interaction term was included to assess whether income differences in hospital use during the pandemic deviated from pre-pandemic use., Results: Hospital use rates declined in 2020 across all income groups. With baseline (2019) higher hospital use rates among lower than higher income groups, relatively stronger declines were found for lower income groups. The lowest income groups experienced a 10% larger decline in surgery received than the highest income group (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.87 - 0.93). Patterns were similar for inpatient clinic, elective knee/hip replacement and cataract surgery. We found small or no significant income differences for outpatient clinic, day treatment, and acute PCI., Conclusions: Disruption of non-COVID hospital use in 2020 was substantial across all income groups during the acute phases of the pandemic, but relatively stronger for lower income groups than could be expected compared with pre-pandemic hospital use. Although the pandemic's impact on the health system was unprecedented, healthcare service shortages are here to stay. It is therefore pivotal to realise that lower income groups may be at risk for underuse in times of scarcity., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Becoming divorced or widowed are stressful life events experienced by a substantial part of the population. While marital status is a significant predictor in many studies on healthcare expenditures, effects of a change in marital status, specifically becoming divorced or widowed, are less investigated. This study combines individual health claims data and registered sociodemographic characteristics from all Dutch inhabitants (about 17 million) to estimate the differences in healthcare expenditure for individuals whose marital status changed (n = 469,901) compared to individuals who remained married, using propensity score matching and generalized linear models. We found that individuals who were (long-term) divorced or widowed had 12-27% higher healthcare expenditures (RR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.11-1.14; RR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.26-1.29) than individuals who remained married. Foremost, this could be attributed to higher spending on mental healthcare and home care. Higher healthcare expenditures are observed for both divorced and widowed individuals, both recently and long-term divorced/widowed individuals, and across all age groups, income levels and educational levels., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: In many Western countries, the state pension age is being raised to stimulate the extension of working lives. It is not yet well understood whether the health of older adults supports this increase. In this study, future health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 (i.e., the expected state pension age) is explored up to 2040., Methods: Data are from the Dutch Health Interview Survey 1990-2017 (N ≈ 10,000 yearly) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor 2016 (N = 205,151). Health is operationalized using combined scores of self-reported health and limitations in mobility, hearing or seeing. Categories are: good, moderate and poor health. Based on historical health trends, two scenarios are explored: a stable health trend (neither improving nor declining) and an improving health trend., Results: In 2040, the health distribution among men aged 60-68 is estimated to be 63-71% in good, 17-28% in moderate and 9-12% in poor health. Among women, this is estimated to be 64-69%, 17-24% and 12-14%, respectively., Conclusions: This study's explorations suggest that a substantial share of people will be in moderate or poor health and, thus, may have difficulty continuing working. Policy aiming at sustainable employability will, therefore, remain important, even in the case of the most favorable scenario.

Background: Worldwide, socioeconomic differences in health and use of healthcare resources have been reported, even in countries providing universal healthcare coverage. However, it is unclear how large these socioeconomic differences are for different types of care and to what extent health status plays a role. Therefore, our aim was to examine to what extent healthcare expenditure and utilization differ according to educational level and income, and whether these differences can be explained by health inequalities., Methods: Data from 18,936 participants aged 25-79 years of the Dutch Health Interview Survey were linked at the individual level to nationwide claims data that included healthcare expenditure covered in 2017. For healthcare utilization, participants reported use of different types of healthcare in the past 12 months. The association of education/income with healthcare expenditure/utilization was studied separately for different types of healthcare such as GP and hospital care. Subsequently, analyses were adjusted for general health, physical limitations, and mental health., Results: For most types of healthcare, participants with lower educational and income levels had higher healthcare expenditure and used more healthcare compared to participants with the highest educational and income levels. Total healthcare expenditure was approximately between 50 and 150 % higher (depending on age group) among people in the lowest educational and income levels. These differences generally disappeared or decreased after including health covariates in the analyses. After adjustment for health, socioeconomic differences in total healthcare expenditure were reduced by 74-91 %., Conclusions: In this study among Dutch adults, lower socioeconomic status was associated with increased healthcare expenditure and utilization. These socioeconomic differences largely disappeared after taking into account health status, which implies that, within the universal Dutch healthcare system, resources are being spent where they are most needed. Improving health among lower socioeconomic groups may contribute to decreasing health inequalities and healthcare spending.

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the main cause of mortality and severe morbidity in cyclists admitted to Dutch emergency departments (EDs). Although the use of bicycle helmets is an effective way of preventing TBI, this is uncommon in the Netherlands. An option to increase its use is through a legal enforcement. However, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of such mandatory use of helmets in the Dutch context. The current study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a law that enforces helmet use to reduce TBI and TBI-related mortality., Methods: The cost-effectiveness was estimated through decision tree modelling. In this study, wearing bicycle helmets enforced by law was compared with the current situation of infrequent voluntary helmet use. The total Dutch cycling population, consisting of 13.5 million people, was included in the model. Model data and parameters were obtained from Statistics Netherlands, the National Road Traffic Database, Dutch Injury Surveillance System, and literature. Effects included were numbers of TBI, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Costs included were healthcare costs, costs of productivity losses, and helmet costs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess which parameter had the largest influence on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)., Results: The intervention would lead to an estimated reduction of 2942 cases of TBI and 46 deaths. Overall, the incremental costs per 1) death averted, 2) per TBI averted, and 3) per DALY averted were estimated at 1) € 2,002,766, 2) € 31,028 and 3) € 28,465, respectively. Most favorable were the incremental costs per DALY in the 65+ age group: € 17,775., Conclusions: The overall costs per DALY averted surpassed the Dutch willingness to pay threshold value of € 20,000 for cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions. However, the cost per DALY averted for the elderly was below this threshold, indicating that in this age group largest effects can be reached. If the price of a helmet would reduce by 20%, which is non-hypothetical in a situation of large-scale purchases and use of these helmets, the introduction of this regulation would result in an intervention that is almost cost-effective in all age groups.

It is widely acknowledged that in order to promote public health and prevent diseases, a wide range of scientific disciplines and sectors beyond the health sector need to be involved. Evidence-based interventions, beyond preventive health interventions targeting disease risk factors and interventions from other sectors, should be developed and implemented. Investing in these preventive health policies is challenging as budgets have to compete with other governmental expenditures. The current study aimed to identify, compare and rank cost-effective preventive interventions targeting metabolic, environmental, occupational and behavioral risk factors. To identify these interventions, a literature search was performed including original full economic evaluations of Western country interventions that had not yet been implemented in the Netherlands. Several workshops were held with experts from different disciplines. In total, 51 different interventions (including 13 cost saving interventions) were identified and ranked based on their incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and potential averted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), resulting in two rankings of the most cost-effective interventions and one ranking of the 13 cost saving interventions. This approach, resulting in an intersectoral ranking, can assist policy makers in implementing cost-effective preventive action that considers not only the health sector, but also other sectors., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Background: Aggregated claims data on medication are often used as a proxy for the prevalence of diseases, especially chronic diseases. However, linkage between medication and diagnosis tend to be theory based and not very precise. Modelling disease probability at an individual level using individual level data may yield more accurate results., Methods: Individual probabilities of having a certain chronic disease were estimated using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. A training set was created from a general practitioners database of 276 723 cases that included diagnosis and claims data on medication. Model performance for 29 chronic diseases was evaluated using Receiver-Operator Curves, by measuring the Area Under the Curve (AUC)., Results: The diseases for which model performance was best were Parkinson's disease (AUC = .89, 95% CI = .77-1.00), diabetes (AUC = .87, 95% CI = .85-.90), osteoporosis (AUC = .87, 95% CI = .81-.92) and heart failure (AUC = .81, 95% CI = .74-.88). Five other diseases had an AUC >.75: asthma, chronic enteritis, COPD, epilepsy and HIV/AIDS. For 16 of 17 diseases tested, the medication categories used in theory-based algorithms were also identified by our method, however the RF models included a broader range of medications as important predictors., Conclusion: Data on medication use can be a useful predictor when estimating the prevalence of several chronic diseases. To improve the estimates, for a broader range of chronic diseases, research should use better training data, include more details concerning dosages and duration of prescriptions, and add related predictors like hospitalizations., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.)

In the Netherlands, toxoplasmosis ranks second in disease burden among foodborne pathogens with an estimated health loss of 1,900 Disability Adjusted Life Years and a cost-of-illness estimated at €45 million annually. Therefore, effective and preferably cost-effective preventive interventions are warranted. Freezing meat intended for raw or undercooked consumption and improving biosecurity in pig farms are promising interventions to prevent Toxoplasma gondii infections in humans. Putting these interventions into practice would expectedly reduce the number of infections; however, the net benefits for society are unknown. Stakeholders bearing the costs for these interventions will not necessary coincide with the ones having the benefits. We performed a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis to evaluate the net value of two potential interventions for the Dutch society. We assessed the costs and benefits of the two interventions and compared them with the current practice of education, especially during pregnancy. A 'minimum scenario' and a 'maximum scenario' was assumed, using input parameters with least benefits to society and input parameters with most benefits to society, respectively. For both interventions, we performed different scenario analyses. The freezing meat intervention was far more effective than the biosecurity intervention. Despite high freezing costs, freezing two meat products: steak tartare and mutton leg yielded net social benefits in both the minimum and maximum scenario, ranging from €10.6 million to €31 million for steak tartare and €0.6 million to €1.5 million for mutton leg. The biosecurity intervention would result in net costs in all scenarios ranging from €1 million to €2.5 million, due to high intervention costs and limited benefits. From a public health perspective (i.e. reducing the burden of toxoplasmosis) and the societal perspective (i.e. a net benefit for the Dutch society) freezing steak tartare and leg of mutton is to be considered., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Chronic infection with hepatitis B or C virus (HBV/HCV) can progress to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and even death. In a low endemic country as the Netherlands, migrants are a key risk group and could benefit from early diagnosis and antiviral treatment. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of screening foreign-born migrants for chronic HBV and/or HCV using a societal perspective., Methods: The cost-effectiveness was evaluated using a Markov model. Estimates on prevalence, screening programme costs, participation and treatment uptake, transition probabilities, healthcare costs, productivity losses and utilities were derived from the literature. The cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained was estimated and sensitivity analyses were performed., Results: For most migrant groups with an expected high number of chronically infected cases in the Netherlands combined screening is cost-effective, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranging from €4,962/QALY gained for migrants originating from the Former Soviet Union and Vietnam to €9,375/QALY gained for Polish migrants. HBV and HCV screening proved to be cost-effective for migrants from countries with chronic HBV or HCV prevalence of ≥0.41% and ≥0.22%, with ICERs below the Dutch cost-effectiveness reference value of €20,000/QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis showed that treatment costs influenced the ICER for both infections., Conclusions: For most migrant populations in a low-endemic country offering combined HBV and HCV screening is cost-effective. Implementation of targeted HBV and HCV screening programmes to increase early diagnosis and treatment is important to reduce the burden of chronic hepatitis B and C among migrants., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The recent epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) resulted in countries worldwide to prepare for the possibility of having an EVD patient. In this study, we estimate the costs of Ebola preparedness and response borne by the Dutch health system. An activity-based costing method was used, in which the cost of staff time spent in preparedness and response activities was calculated based on a time-recording system and interviews with key professionals at the healthcare organizations involved. In addition, the organizations provided cost information on patient days of hospitalization, laboratory tests, personal protective equipment (PPE), as well as the additional cleaning and disinfection required. The estimated total costs averaged €12.6 million, ranging from €6.7 to €22.5 million. The main cost drivers were PPE expenditures and preparedness activities of personnel, especially those associated with ambulance services and hospitals. There were 13 possible cases clinically evaluated and one confirmed case admitted to hospital. The estimated total cost of EVD preparedness and response in the Netherlands was substantial. Future costs might be reduced and efficiency increased by designating one ambulance service for transportation and fewer hospitals for the assessment of possible patients with a highly infectious disease of high consequences.

Many people aim to change their lifestyle, but have trouble acting on their intentions. Behavioral economic incentives and related emotions can support commitment to personal health goals, but the related emotions remain unexplored. In a regret lottery, winners who do not attain their health goals do not get their prize but receive feedback on what their forgone earnings would have been. This counterfactual feedback should provoke anticipated regret and increase commitment to health goals. We explored which emotions were actually expected upon missing out on a prize due to unsuccessful weight loss and which incentive-characteristics influence their likelihood and intensity. Participants reported their expected emotional response after missing out on a prize in one of 12 randomly presented incentive-scenarios, which varied in incentive type, incentive size and deadline distance. Participants primarily reported feeling disappointment, followed by regret. Regret was expected most when losing a lottery prize (vs. a fixed incentive) and intensified with prize size. Multiple features of the participant and the lottery incentive increase the occurrence and intensity of regret. As such, our findings can be helpful in designing behavioral economic incentives that leverage emotions to support health behavior change.

To overcome self-control difficulties, people can commit to their health goals by voluntarily accepting deadlines with consequences. In a commitment lottery, the winners are drawn from all participants, but can only claim their prize if they also attained their gym-attendance goals. In a 52-week, three-arm trial across six company gyms, we tested if commitment lotteries with behavioral economic underpinnings would promote physical activity among overweight adults. In previous work, we presented an effective 26-week intervention. In the present paper we analyzed maintenance of goal attainment at 52-week follow-up and the development of weight over time. We compared weight and goal attainment (gym attendance ≥ 2 per week) between three arms that-in the intervention period- consisted of (I) weekly short-term lotteries for 13 weeks; (II) the same short-term lotteries in combination with an additional long-term lottery after 26 weeks; and (III) a control arm without lottery-deadlines. After a successful 26-week intervention, goal attainment declined between weeks 27 and 52 in the long-term lottery arm, but remained higher than in the control group. Goal attainment did not differ between the short-term lottery arm and control arm. Weight declined slightly in all arms in the first 13 weeks of the trial and remained stable from there on. Commitment lotteries can support regular gym attendance up to 52 weeks, but more research is needed to achieve higher levels of maintenance and weight loss.

Background: The World Health Organization has identified physical inactivity as the fourth leading risk factor for global mortality. People often intend to engage in physical activity on a regular basis, but have trouble doing so. To realize their health goals, people can voluntarily accept deadlines with consequences that restrict undesired future behaviors (i.e., commitment devices)., Purpose: We examined if lottery-based deadlines that leverage regret aversion would help overweight individuals in attaining their goal of attending their gym twice per week. At each deadline a lottery winner was drawn from all participants. The winners were only eligible for their prize if they attained their gym-attendance goals. Importantly, nonattending lottery winners were informed about their forgone prize. The promise of this counterfactual feedback was designed to evoke anticipated regret and emphasize the deadlines., Methods: Six corporate gyms with a total of 163 overweight participants were randomized to one of three arms. We compared (i) weekly short-term lotteries for 13 weeks; (ii) the same short-term lotteries in combination with an additional long-term lottery after 26 weeks; and (iii) a control arm without lotteries., Results: After 13 weeks, participants in the lottery arms attained their attendance goals more often than participants in the control arm. After 26 weeks, we observe a decline in goal attainment in the short-term lottery arm and the highest goal attainment in the long-term lottery arm., Conclusions: With novel applications, the current research adds to a growing body of research that demonstrates the effectiveness of commitment devices in closing the gap between health goals and behavior., Clinical Trial Information: This trial is registered in the Dutch Trial Register. Identifier: NTR5559.

Background: Since in an ageing society more long-term care (LTC) facilities are needed, it is important to understand the main determinants of first-time utilization of (LTC) services., Methods: The Andersen service model, which distinguishes predisposing, enabling and need factors, was used to develop a model for first-time utilization of LTC services among the general population of the Netherlands. We used data on 214,821 persons registered in a database of general practitioners (NIVEL Primary Care Database). For each person the medical history was known, as well as characteristics such as ethnicity, income, home-ownership, and marital status. Utilization data from the national register on long-term care was linked at a personal level. Generalized Linear Models were used to determine the relative importance of factors of incident LTC-service utilization., Results: Top 5 determinants of LTC are need, measured as the presence of chronic diseases, age, household size, household income and homeownership. When controlling for all other determinants, the presence of an additional chronic disease increases the probability of utilizing any LTC service by 45% among the 20+ population (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.41-1.49), and 31% among the 65+ population (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.27-1.36). With respect to the 20+ population, living in social rent (OR = 2.45, 95% CI = 2.25-2.67, ref. = home-owner) had a large impact on utilizing any LTC service. In a lesser degree this was the case for living alone (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.52-1.75, ref. = not living alone). A higher household income was linked with a lower utilization of any LTC service., Conclusions: All three factors of the Anderson model, predisposing, enabling, and need determinants influence the likelihood of future LTC service utilization. This implies that none of these factors can be left out of the analysis of what determines this use. New in our analysis is the focus on incident utilization. This provides a better estimate of the effects of predictors than a prevalence based analysis, as there is less confounding by changes in determinants occurring after LTC initiation. Especially the need of care is a strong factor. A policy implication of this relative importance of health status is therefore that LTC reforms should take health aspects into account.

- Two recent societal cost-benefit analyses have documented the costs of smoking and the cost-effectiveness of preventing smoking.- Smoking costs the Netherlands society EUR 33 billion per year.- The majority of this is the monetary value of health loss; these are "soft" euros that cannot be re-spent.- There is not a great deal of difference between costs and benefits when expressed in "hard" euros, which means that there is no clear business case for anti-smoking policy.- The greatest benefit of discouraging smoking is improved health for the individual and increased productivity for the business sector; however, the benefits cannot be easily realised, because even in the most favourable scenario the number of smokers will decrease slowly.- Excise duties seem to offer the most promising avenue for combating smoking. The benefits of anti-smoking policy, therefore, consist mainly of tax revenues for the government.- Stringent policy is required to transform tax revenues into health gains.

People often intend to exercise but find it difficult to attend their gyms on a regular basis. At times, people seek and accept deadlines with consequences to realize their own goals (i.e. commitment devices). The aim of our cluster randomized controlled trial is to test whether a lottery-based commitment device can promote regular gym attendance. The winners of the lottery always get feedback on the outcome but can only claim their prize if they attended their gyms on a regular basis. In this paper we present the design and baseline characteristics of a three-arm trial which is performed with 163 overweight participants in six in-company fitness centers in the Netherlands., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The effect of population aging on future health services use depends on the relationship between longevity gains and health. Whether further gains in life expectancy will be paired by improvements in health is uncertain. We therefore analyze the effect of population ageing on health services use under different health scenarios. We focus on the possibly diverging trends between different dimensions of health and their effect on health services use., Methods: Using longitudinal data on health and health services use, a latent Markov model has been estimated that includes different dimensions of health. We use this model to perform a simulation study and analyze the health dynamics that drive the effect of population aging. We simulate three health scenarios on the relationship between longevity and health (expansion of morbidity, compression of morbidity, and the dynamic equilibrium scenario). We use the scenarios to predict costs of health services use in the Netherlands between 2010 and 2050., Results: Hospital use is predicted to decline after 2040, whereas long-term care will continue to rise up to 2050. Considerable differences in expenditure growth rates between scenarios with the same life expectancy but different trends in health are found. Compression of morbidity generally leads to the lowest growth. The effect of additional life expectancy gains within the same health scenario is relatively small for hospital care, but considerable for long-term care., Conclusions: By comparing different health scenarios resulting in the same life expectancy, we show that health improvements do contain costs when they decrease morbidity but not mortality. This suggests that investing in healthy aging can contribute to containing health expenditure growth.

Health care costs have increased due to population ageing. It is often said that the majority of health care spending occurs in the last year of life and that, as a result, the total costs of population ageing are considerably lower than is usually predicted. With the Netherlands facing a rapidly ageing population, such statements are well-received by policy makers. Unfortunately they reflect only part of the truth and are therefore misleading. Nevertheless, health care costs in the last years of life are still interesting, but for a different reason than is widely believed. Taking a lifetime perspective, these costs shed new light on solidarity in health care.

We investigate the dynamic relationship between several dimensions of health and health care expenditures for older individuals. Health data from the Longitudinal Aging Survey Amsterdam is combined with data on hospital and long term care use. We estimate a latent variable based jointly on observed health indicators and expenditures. Annual transition probabilities between states of the latent variable are estimated using a Markov model. States associated with good current health and low annual health care expenditures are not associated with lower cumulative health care expenditures over remaining lifetime. We conclude that, although the direct health care cost saving effect is limited, the considerable gain in healthy lifeyears can make investing in the improvement of health of the older population worthwhile., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The Dutch risk equalization scheme has been improved over the years by including health related risk adjusters. The purpose of the Dutch risk equalization scheme is to prevent risk selection and to correct for predictable losses and gains for insurers. The objective of this paper is to explore the financial incentives for risk selection under the Dutch risk equalization scheme. We used a simulation model to estimate lifetime health care costs and risk equalization contributions for three cohorts (a smoking; an obese; and a healthy living cohort). Financial differences for the three cohorts were assessed by subtracting health care costs from risk equalization contributions. Even under an elaborate risk equalization system, the healthy living cohort was still most financially attractive for insurers. Smokers were somewhat less attractive, while the obese cohort was least attractive. Lifetime differences with healthy living individuals (revenues minus costs) were modest: €4840 for obese individuals and €1101 for smokers. Under a simple form of risk equalization these differences were higher, €8542 and €4620 respectively. Improvement of the risk equalization scheme reduced the gap between costs and revenues. Incentives for undesirable risk selection were reduced, but simultaneously incentives for health promotion were weakened. This highlights a new prevention paradox: improving the level playing field for health insurers will inevitably limit their incentives for promoting the health of their clients., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Increasing healthcare costs force policy makers to make difficult choices in the insurance package. In order to make rational choices, there must be an understanding of the healthcare costs as well as the value of the health that the care provides. Health economists have in recent years carried out extensive research into the value that people attribute to health. Health is of great social value, and is difficult to express in concrete monetary terms. One extra life-year in good health ('quality-adjusted life year', QALY) seems to be valued on average at no less than 50,000 euros by people. Methodology needs to be developed in this area so that study results are more uniform and can be better compared. Physicians and policy makers will thus gain more insight into the value of health.

Health care utilization is expected to rise in the coming decades. Not only will the aggregate need for health care grow by changing demographics, so too will per capita utilization. It has been suggested that trends in health care utilization may be age-specific. In this paper, age-specific trends in health care utilization are presented for different health care sectors in the Netherlands, for the period 1981-2009. For the hospital sector we also explore the link between these trends and the state of medical technology. Using aggregated data from a Dutch health survey and a nationwide hospital register, regression analysis was used to examine age-specific trends in the probability of utilizing health care. To determine the influence of medical technology, the growth in age-specific probabilities of hospital care was regressed on the number of medical patents while adjusting for confounders related to demographics, health status, supply and institutional factors. The findings suggest that for most health care sectors, the trend in the probability of health care utilization is highest for ages 65 and up. Larger advances in medical technology are found to be significantly associated with a higher growth of hospitalization probability, particularly for the higher ages. Age-specific trends will raise questions on the sustainability of intergenerational solidarity in health care, as solidarity will not only be strained by the ageing population, but also might find itself under additional pressure as the gap in health care utilization between elderly and non-elderly grows over time. For hospital care utilization, this process might well be accelerated by advances in medical technology., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This article presents methods for using administrative data to study multimorbidity in hospitalized individuals and indicates how the findings can be used to gain a deeper understanding of hospital multimorbidity., Study Design and Setting: A Dutch nationwide hospital register (n=4,521,856) was used to calculate age- and sex-standardized observed/expected ratios of disease-pairing prevalences with corresponding confidence intervals., Results: The strongest association was found for the combination between alcoholic liver and mental disorders due to alcohol abuse (observed/expected=39.2). Septicemia was found to cluster most frequently with other diseases. The consistency of the ratios over time depended on the number of observed cases. Furthermore, the ratios also depend on the length of the time frame considered., Conclusion: Using observed/expected ratios calculated from the administrative data set, we were able to (1) better quantify known morbidity pairings while also revealing hitherto unnoticed associations, (2) find out which pairings cluster most strongly, and (3) gain insight into which diseases cluster frequently with other diseases. Caveats with this method are finding spurious associations on the basis of too few observed cases and the dependency of the ratio magnitude on the length of the time frame observed., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between baseline health and costs of hospital use over a period of eight years. We combine cross-sectional survey data with information from the Dutch national hospital register. Four different indicators of health (self-perceived health, long-term impairments, ADL limitations and comorbidity) are considered. We find that for ages 50 to 70, differences in hospital costs between good health and bad health are substantial and persist during the whole time period. However, for higher ages expected hospital costs for individuals in bad health decline rapidly and become lower than those for people in good health after about six to seven years. The higher mortality rate among people in bad health is the primary cause here. Our results are confirmed for all four health indicators. We conclude that relying on better health to contain healthcare expenditures is too optimistic, and the interaction between health and mortality should be taken into account when projecting healthcare costs. Healthy ageing is important, but more for health gains than for cost savings., (Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

It has been demonstrated repeatedly that time to death is a much better predictor of health care expenditures than age. This is known as the 'red herring' hypothesis. In this article, we investigate whether this is also the case regarding disease-specific hospital expenditures. Longitudinal data samples from the Dutch hospital register (n=11 253 455) were used to estimate 94 disease-specific two-part models. Based on these models, Monte Carlo simulations were used to assess the predictive value of proximity to death and age on disease-specific expenditures. Results revealed that there was a clear effect of proximity of death on health care expenditures. This effect was present for most diseases and was strongest for most cancers. However, even for some less fatal diseases, proximity to death was found to be an important predictor of expenditures. Controlling for proximity to death, age was found to be a significant predictor of expenditures for most diseases. However, its impact is modest when compared to proximity to death. Considering the large variation in the degree to which proximity to death and age matter for each specific disease, we may speak not only of age as a 'red herring' but also of a 'carpaccio of red herrings'., (Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The inclusion of medical costs in life years gained in economic evaluations of health care technologies has long been controversial. Arguments in favour of the inclusion of such costs are gaining support, which shifts the question from whether to how to include these costs. This paper elaborates on the issue how to include cost in life years gained in cost effectiveness analysis given the current practice of economic evaluations in which costs of related diseases are included. We combine insights from the theoretical literature on the inclusion of unrelated medical costs in life years gained with insights from the so-called 'red herring' literature. It is argued that for most interventions it would be incorrect to simply add all medical costs in life years gained to an ICER, even when these are corrected for postponement of the expensive last year of life. This is the case since some of the postponement mechanism is already captured in the unadjusted ICER by modelling the costs of related diseases. Using the example of smoking cessation, we illustrate the differences and similarities between different approaches. The paper concludes with a discussion about the proper way to account for medical costs in life years gained in economic evaluations., (Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

A shortcoming of many economic evaluations is that they do not include all medical costs in life-years gained (also termed indirect medical costs). One of the reasons for this is the practical difficulties in the estimation of these costs. While some methods have been proposed to estimate indirect medical costs in a standardized manner, these methods fail to take into account that not all costs in life-years gained can be estimated in such a way. Costs in life-years gained caused by diseases related to the intervention are difficult to estimate in a standardized manner and should always be explicitly modelled. However, costs of all other (unrelated) diseases in life-years gained can be estimated in such a way. We propose a conceptual model of how to estimate costs of unrelated diseases in life-years gained in a standardized manner. Furthermore, we describe how we estimated the parameters of this conceptual model using various data sources and studies conducted in the Netherlands. Results of the estimates are embedded in a software package called 'Practical Application to Include future Disease costs' (PAID 1.0). PAID 1.0 is available as a Microsoft® Excel tool (available as Supplemental Digital Content via a link in this article) and enables researchers to 'switch off' those disease categories that were already included in their own analysis and to estimate future healthcare costs of all other diseases for incorporation in their economic evaluations. We assumed that total healthcare expenditure can be explained by age, sex and time to death, while the relationship between costs and these three variables differs per disease. To estimate values for age- and sex-specific per capita health expenditure per disease and healthcare provider stratified by time to death we used Dutch cost-of-illness (COI) data for the year 2005 as a backbone. The COI data consisted of age- and sex-specific per capita health expenditure uniquely attributed to 107 disease categories and eight healthcare provider categories. Since the Dutch COI figures do not distinguish between costs of those who die at a certain age (decedents) and those who survive that age (survivors), we decomposed average per capita expenditure into parts that are attributable to decedents and survivors, respectively, using other data sources.

Aim: The cost-effectiveness of passive immunisation against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Netherlands was studied by assessing incremental costs to prevent one hospitalisation in high-risk children using a novel individualised monthly approach., Methods: Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by combining estimates of individual hospitalisation costs and monthly hospitalisation risks, with immunisation costs, parental costs and efficacy of passive immunisation for a reference case with the highest hospitalisation risks and costs of hospitalisation during the RSV season (male, gestational age < or =28 weeks, birth weight < or =2500 g, having bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), aged 0 months at the beginning of the season (October)). Various sensitivity analyses and a cost-neutrality analysis were performed., Results: Cost-effectiveness of passive immunisation varied widely by child characteristics and seasonal month. For the reference case it was most cost effective in December at euro13,190 per hospitalisation averted. Cost-effectiveness was most sensitive to changes in hospitalisation risk. For the reference case, cost neutrality was reached in December, if acquisition costs of passive immunisation decreased from euro 930 to euro 375, monthly hospitalisation risk increased from 7.6% to 17%, or hospitalisation costs increased from euro 10 250 to euro 23 250 per hospitalisation. Even if passive immunisation prevented all hospitalisations, costs per hospitalisation averted in December would still exceed euro 2645., Conclusions: Although cost-effectiveness of passive immunisation varied strongly by child characteristics and seasonal month, incremental costs per hospitalisation averted were always high. A restrictive immunisation policy only immunising children with BPD in high-risk months is therefore recommended. The costs of passive immunisation would have to be considerably reduced to achieve cost-effectiveness.

It is under debate whether healthcare costs related to death and in life years gained (LysG) due to life saving interventions should be included in economic evaluations. We estimated the impact of including these costs on cost-effectiveness of cancer screening. We obtained health insurance, home care, nursing homes, and mortality data for 2.1 million inhabitants in the Netherlands in 1998-1999. Costs related to death were approximated by the healthcare costs in the last year of life (LastYL), by cause and age of death. Costs in LYsG were estimated by calculating the healthcare costs in any life year. We calculated the change in cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) if unrelated healthcare costs in the LastYL or in LYsG would be included. Costs in the LastYL were on average 33% higher for persons dying from cancer than from any cause. Including costs in LysG increased the CER by 4040 euro in women, and by 4100 euro in men. Of these, 660 euro in women, and 890 euro in men, were costs in the LastYL. Including unrelated healthcare costs in the LastYL or in LYsG will change the comparative cost-effectiveness of healthcare programmes. The CERs of cancer screening programmes will clearly increase, with approximately 4000 euro. However, because of the favourable CER's, including unrelated healthcare costs will in general have limited policy implications.

Background: Obesity is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and is associated with high medical expenditures. It has been suggested that obesity prevention could result in cost savings. The objective of this study was to estimate the annual and lifetime medical costs attributable to obesity, to compare those to similar costs attributable to smoking, and to discuss the implications for prevention., Methods and Findings: With a simulation model, lifetime health-care costs were estimated for a cohort of obese people aged 20 y at baseline. To assess the impact of obesity, comparisons were made with similar cohorts of smokers and "healthy-living" persons (defined as nonsmokers with a body mass index between 18.5 and 25). Except for relative risk values, all input parameters of the simulation model were based on data from The Netherlands. In sensitivity analyses the effects of epidemiologic parameters and cost definitions were assessed. Until age 56 y, annual health expenditure was highest for obese people. At older ages, smokers incurred higher costs. Because of differences in life expectancy, however, lifetime health expenditure was highest among healthy-living people and lowest for smokers. Obese individuals held an intermediate position. Alternative values of epidemiologic parameters and cost definitions did not alter these conclusions., Conclusions: Although effective obesity prevention leads to a decrease in costs of obesity-related diseases, this decrease is offset by cost increases due to diseases unrelated to obesity in life-years gained. Obesity prevention may be an important and cost-effective way of improving public health, but it is not a cure for increasing health expenditures.

Background: Comprehensive information about national spending on prevention is crucial for health policy development and evaluation. This study provides a comprehensive overview of prevention spending in the Netherlands, including those activities beyond the national health accounts., Methods: National spending on health-related primary and secondary preventive activities was examined by funding source with the use of national statistics, government reports, sector reports, and data from individual health associations and corporations, public services, occupational health services, and personal prevention. Costs were broken down by diseases, age groups and gender using population-attributable risks and other key variables., Results: Total expenditures on prevention were euro12.5 billion or euro769 per capita in the Netherlands in 2003, of which 20% was included in the national health accounts. 82% was spent on health protection, 16% on disease prevention, and 2% on health promotion activities. Most of the spending was aimed at the prevention of infectious diseases (34%) and acute physical injuries (29%). Per capita spending on prevention increased steeply by age., Conclusion: Total expenditure on health-related prevention is much higher than normally reported due to the inclusion of health protection activities beyond the national health accounts. The allocative efficiency of prevention spending, particularly the high costs of health protection and the low costs of health promotion activities, should be addressed with information on their relative cost effectiveness.

Health expenditure depends heavily on age. Common wisdom is that the age pattern is dominated by costs in the last year of life. Knowledge about these costs is important for the debate on the future development of health expenditure. According to the 'red herring' argument traditional projection methods overestimate the influence of ageing because improvements in life expectancy will postpone rather than raise health expenditure. This paper has four objectives: (1) to estimate health care costs in the last year of life in the Netherlands; (2) to describe age patterns and differences between causes of death for men and women; (3) to compare cost profiles of decedents and survivors; and (4) to use these figures in projections of future health expenditure. We used health insurance data of 2.1 million persons (13% of the Dutch population), linked at the individual level with data on the use of home care and nursing homes and causes of death in 1999. On average, health care costs amounted to 1100 Euro per person. Costs per decedent were 13.5 times higher and approximated 14,906 Euro in the last year of life. Most costs related to hospital care (54%) and nursing home care (19%). Among the major causes of death, costs were highest for cancer (19,000 Euro) and lowest for myocardial infarctions (8068 Euro). Between the other causes of death, however, cost differences were rather limited. On average costs for the younger decedents were higher than for people who died at higher ages. Ten per cent of total health expenditure was associated with the health care use of people in their last year of life. Increasing longevity will result in higher costs because people live longer. The decline of costs in the last year of life with increasing age will have a moderate lowering effect. Our projection demonstrated a 10% decline in the growth rate of future health expenditure compared to conventional projection methods.

All Western health systems are in search of efficiency. Cost of illness (COI) studies can contribute to the efficiency debate by elucidating the relation between health expenditure and health status and population demography. Since the purpose of COI data being summarized in the OECD Health Data publications is to facilitate cross-national comparisons, it is important to assess the comparability. We compared COI data from six countries at macrolevel of total health expenditure and disaggregated the data from four countries to sectors such as hospitals, drugs, health professionals, and residential care. Although the distribution of health expenditure over major diseases showed similar patterns in all countries, overall comparability was bad. We conclude that the current scope of COI studies is bound to national levels because health care systems dominate the magnitude and distribution of health expenditure. Cross-national comparisons may be possible if data and methods are standardized, and COI estimates are made for a common comparable package.

Background: Reliable estimates of hospitalization costs for severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection are necessary to perform economic analyses of preventive strategies of severe RSV disease. We aimed to develop a model that predicts anticipated mean RSV hospitalization costs of groups of young children at risk for hospitalization, but not yet hospitalized, based on readily available child characteristics., Methods: We determined real direct medical costs of RSV hospitalization from a societal perspective, using a bottom-up strategy, in 3458 infants and young children hospitalized for severe RSV disease during the RSV seasons 1996-1997 to 1999-2000 in the Southwest of the Netherlands. We used a linear regression model to predict anticipated mean RSV hospitalization costs of groups of children at risk, based on 4 child characteristics [age, gestational age, birth weight and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD)], expressed in EC Euros as of the year 2000., Findings: The mean RSV hospitalization costs of all patients were 3110 Euros. RSV hospitalization costs were higher for patients with lower gestational age (5555 Euros; gestational age,

Objective: To assess costs and effectiveness of preconception counseling for all women planning pregnancy in The Netherlands with regard to folic acid supplementation and smoking cessation counseling., Study Design: Costs and effects were estimated based on 200,000 women approached yearly and uptake rates of 50% and 75%. Effectiveness and potential savings were based on hospital costs of neural tube defects, low birth weight, very low birth weight and perinatal death attributable to maternal smoking., Results: Total costs were estimated at dollar 5.1 million and dollar 7.2 million at uptake rates of 50% and 75%, respectively. If 50% of women would seek preconception counseling, 22 neural tube defects, 98 low-birth-weight infants, 10 very-low-birth-weight infants and 7 perinatal deaths could be avoided. At 75% uptake, 33 neural tube defects, 146 low- and 15 very-low-birth-weight infants, and 11 perinatal deaths could be avoided., Conclusion: Net costs of preconception counseling amount to dollar 3.7 million and dollar 5.0 million when considering cases prevented and subsequent potential savings in costs of neural tube defects and smoking-related morbidity only. However, in light of many other preventable adverse outcomes and the potential of preconception counseling to prevent significant lifetime costs for affected children, the net costs may ultimately result in a favorable cost-savings balance. Moreover, the importance of a healthy child cannot be expressed in terms of costs and savings alone.

Objective: To assess the screening performance of a specific language-screening instrument at 18 and 24 months of age and to assess its effect on the early detection and prognosis of language delay., Design: Child health care physicians were randomised to the intervention group, in which specific language screening was conducted twice (at age 18 months and 24 months), or to the control group (usual care). The specific screening instrument consisted of a uniform set of questions for the parents and test elements for the child, with scaled scores to assess responses., Setting: Child health care in the Netherlands and referral of screen-positive children., Subjects: 5734 children in the intervention group and 4621 in the control group., Main Outcome Measures: Test characteristics and disorders at 24 months, and confirmed diagnoses of a language disorder before 36 months in both groups. Gold standard based on reports of parents, specialists and expert panel. Prognosis estimated from two diagnostic language development performance scores at 36 months (in questionnaire)., Results: In the intervention group, 3147 of the 5734 children (55%) were screened with the specific screening instrument and 73 of the screened children (2.3%) were screen-positive. Of the screen-positive children, 41 (55%) had confirmed language delay (diagnostic assessment and/or reported treatment). The estimated sensitivity of the test ranged between 24-52% depending on the severity of language disorders. The prevalence of language disorders in three-year olds was estimated to be 2.4-5.3%. In the intervention group, 1.25-2 times more children with language delay had been diagnosed before 36 months. The assessment of language development at 36 months showed no statistically significant differences between the intervention and the control groups., Conclusions: The inclusion of a specific language-screening instrument in child health centre activities resulted in the earlier detection of children with language delay. Short-term health benefits could not be demonstrated. Large-scale introduction cannot be recommended on the basis of this information alone.

Background: The study describes variations in use of surgical procedures by community income in the Netherlands. From the literature it is known that surgical rates have a socioeconomic gradient. Both positive and negative associations of socioeconomic factors of patients (for example, income, education) with surgical rates have been reported. The question raised here is: how do (possible) socioeconomic variations in surgery in the Netherlands compare with variations observed elsewhere?, Data and Methods: The data comprised Dutch hospital discharges and population estimates for 1999. Socioeconomic status was indicated by a patient's income and based on the average family income of the postcode area of residence. Poisson regression was used to compute relative incidence (odds ratios) for 10 common surgical procedures. The model included age, gender, degree of urbanisation, and province of residence., Results: The association between surgical rates and community level income is rather weak. For half of the surgical rates the authors observed higher utilisation rates in communities with low income levels, but the differences are small. The range of odds ratios in the lowest income quintile group (compared with the group with the highest income) observed is: 0.87 to 1.18. Men from a low income community received more appendicectomies (1.18), cholecystectomies (1.12), knee replacements (1.06), and prostatectomies (1.14) and less tonsillectomies (0.90). Women from a low income community received more appendicectomies (1.12), caesarean sections (1.18), hip and knee replacements (1.05,1.17), and hysterectomies (1.14). Whereas they received less coronary artery bypass grafts (0.92), cholecystectomies (0.87), and tonsillectomies (0.92)., Conclusions: Compared with findings reported in the international literature, this study indicates that variations in use of surgical procedures by community income in the Netherlands are comparatively small. Because of lack of data the authors could not study the influence of variations in need for surgical care by community income, but as the incidence of conditions requiring surgical interventions generally is higher in lower income groups, it is suspected some degree of underutilisation exists in these groups.

It is widely assumed that health care costs can be reduced considerably by providing care in appropriate health care institutions without unnecessary technological overhead. This assumption has been tested in a prospective study. Conventional discharge after hip fracture surgery was compared with an early discharge policy in which patients were discharged to a nursing home with specialised facilities for rehabilitation. We compared costs for both strategies from a societal perspective, using comprehensive and detailed data on type of residence and all kinds of medical consumption during a 4-month follow-up period. As expected, early discharge reduced the hospital stay (with 13 days, p=0.001). More patients were discharged to a nursing home (76% versus 53%). Total medical costs during follow-up were reduced from an average of euro;15338 to euro;14281, representing relatively small and not significant savings (p=0.3). There are two explanations for this unexpected result. First, costs incurred by hip fracture patients were relatively less while in hospital. Hence, nursing home costs almost equalled hospital costs per admission day. Second, compared with the conventionally discharged group early discharged patients were subjected to more medical procedures during the first post-operative days. We conclude that: (1). early discharge shifted rather than reduced costs; (2). the details of costing have a major influence on the cost-effectiveness of alternative discharge policies., (Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Hip fracture patients occupy more and more hospital beds. One of the strategies for coping with this problem is early discharge from the hospital to institutions with rehabilitation facilities. We studied whether early discharge affects outcome and costs. 208 elderly patients with a hip fracture were followed up to 4 months after the fracture. First, a group of 102 patients stayed in our hospital for the usual period (median 18 days). Then, 106 patients were assigned to a group for early discharge (median 11 days). We measured disabilities, health-related quality of life and cognition at 1 week, 1, and 4 months after hospitalization. To calculate total societal costs, inpatient days, the efforts of professionals in- and outside institutions, and interventions/examinations were recorded during this 4-month period. At 4 months, we found no differences in mortality, ADL level, complications, quality of life, and type of residence. More patients in the early discharge group were discharged to nursing homes with rehabilitation facilities (76% versus 53%), but the median total stay in hospital and nursing home was the same (26 days). Early discharge from hospital did not substantially reduce the total costs (conventional management Euro 15,338 per patient and early discharge Euro 14,281 per patient), but merely shifted them from the hospital to the nursing home.

Background: The escalating costs of health care raise questions about demographic, epidemiological and technological determinants and future projections. The objectives of this work are to describe the age pattern of health care costs, to analyse the age-specific cost changes and to project future health care costs in an ageing population., Methods: Comprehensive cost-of-illness data for the whole Dutch population in 1988 and 1994 are compared by age and type of care. National data on all hospital admissions, nursing days and clinical interventions for the period 1988-1994 is used to describe trends in hospital care. Population forecasts are used to project the age distribution of future health care costs., Results: The distribution of health care costs per capita depends strongly on age. The growth rate of per capita costs increases by age for acute care but decreases by age for long-term care. Both combined cause an average annual growth rate of 4.6%, nearly constant with age., Conclusions: Ageing will result in increasing health care demands and costs. Secular trends in acute and long-term care indicate major shifts in costs from younger to older people and from long-term to acute care.

Healthcare costs are continuously increasing, and impose a strong responsibility on governments for an adequate allocation of resources among healthcare provisions and patients. The aims of the present study were to describe the healthcare costs of intellectual disability (ID) and other mental disorders in the context of the total costs of all other diseases, and to determinate the future need of healthcare resources, especially for ID and mental disorders. The present authors performed a top-down cost-of-illness study comprising all healthcare costs of the Netherlands in 1994. Data on healthcare use were obtained for all 22 healthcare sectors, and used to ascribe costs to disease groups, age and sex. Costs of mental disorders are by far the largest in the Dutch healthcare system. Some 25.8% of total disease-specific costs could be ascribed to mental disorders: psychiatric conditions, 10.6%; ID, 9.0%; and dementia, 6.2%. There are large differences between age and sex groups. The costs of ID and schizophrenia are higher among men, and the costs of dementia and depression are higher among women. The age pattern shows two peaks: the first occurs at 25-35 years of age (ID and psychiatric conditions); and the second at 75-85 years of age (dementia). Time trends between 1988 and 1994 show an average annual growth rate of 5.2% for total healthcare costs: psychiatric conditions, 4.8%; ID, 5.4%; and dementia, 9.4%. Demographic projections suggest a less-than-average cost increase for ID and psychiatric disorders (with annual growth rates of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively) compared to the costs of dementia and total healthcare (with annual growth rates of 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively). Intellectual disability and mental disorders represent a large part of healthcare use in the Netherlands. The costs will inevitably increase because of the ageing of the population and increasing life expectancy among people with disabilities. Non-specific cost containment measures may endanger the quality of care for vulnerable people at younger and older ages.

A prospective study was done to investigate functional outcome, quality of life, and type of residence after hip fracture in patients 65 years of age and older. One hundred two patients admitted consecutively to a university and a general hospital were followed up as long as 4 months after admission. The mean age of the participants was 83 years; 58% of patients came from their own home, and 42 % of patients came from institutions. Nearly 70% of patients had two or more diagnoses other than the hip fracture. Cumulative mortality was 20% at 4 months after fracture. Of surviving patients, 57% were back in their original situation for accommodation, 43% reached the same level of walking ability, and 17% achieved the same level of activities of daily living as before fracture. Patients experienced on average three complications, 26% of which were severe. Quality of life improved in the followup period of 4 months; however, the quality of life at 4 months was worse than the quality of life reported in a reference population. Average costs amounted to euro (Euro) 15.338 (which at the time was nearly equivalent to the US dollar) per patient, with nearly 50% of the costs attributable to hospital costs and 30% attributable to nursing home costs. The results of this study show a poor outcome after hip fracture in elderly patients.

Professional autonomy interferes at a structural level with the various aspects of the health care system. The health care systems that can be distinguished all feature a specific design of professional autonomy, but experience their own governance problems. Empirical health care systems in the West are a nationally coloured blend of ideal type health care systems. From a normative perspective, the optimal health care system should consist of elements of all the ideal types. A workable optimum taking national values into account could be attained by governance structures that also introduce elements from other ideal type systems. Thus a normative approach to medical practice guaranteeing an essential degree of professional autonomy for a relationship of trust between the patient and the physician, could be combined with an efficient and equitable allocation of health care resources.

Objective: Fragile X syndrome is the most common cause of mental retardation from a single gene defect, transmitted in an X-linked semidominant fashion. Cloning of the gene responsible for fragile X syndrome has made it possible to identify carriers who are at risk of giving birth to a child with fragile X syndrome. One of the proposed strategies for identifying carriers is cascade testing, in which relatives of a patient with fragile X syndrome (the index case) are tested. Because the effectiveness of this type of testing is unknown, the objective of this study was to develop a simulation model for studying the consequences of cascade testing for fragile X syndrome., Methods: With this model, 100,000 five-generation pedigrees were simulated to assess the maximum number of carriers that would be detected for three scenarios: (a) only first degree relatives of the index case are tested; (b) relatives up to the third degree are tested; (c) relatives up to the fifth degree are tested., Results: In the start-up phase of the testing programme, 18% of couples who will have a fragile X syndrome child are detected. After this phase the (stabilised) cascade testing programme detects 7% of undetected couples who would have a fragile X syndrome child if only first degree relatives were tested, 12% if first to third degree relatives were tested, and 15% if first to fifth degree relatives were tested. To detect 90% of all premutation and full mutation carriers at least eight consecutive generations need to be tested., Conclusions: The results of our analysis show that cascade testing is not very effective in detecting carriers.

Objectives: To determine the demands on healthcare resources caused by different types of illnesses and variation with age and sex., Design: Information on healthcare use was obtained from all 22 healthcare sectors in the Netherlands. Most important sectors (hospitals, nursing homes, inpatient psychiatric care, institutions for mentally disabled people) have national registries. Total expenditures for each sector were subdivided into 21 age groups, sex, and 34 diagnostic groups., Setting: Netherlands, 1994., Main Outcome Measures: Proportion of healthcare budget spent on each category of disease and cost of health care per person at various ages., Results: After the first year of life, costs per person for children were lowest. Costs rose slowly throughout adult life and increased exponentially from age 50 onwards till the oldest age group (> or = 95). The top five areas of healthcare costs were mental retardation, musculoskeletal disease (predominantly joint disease and dorsopathy), dementia, a heterogeneous group of other mental disorders, and ill defined conditions. Stroke, all cancers combined, and coronary heart disease ranked 7, 8, and 10, respectively., Conclusions: The main determinants of healthcare use in the Netherlands are old age and disabling conditions, particularly mental disability. A large share of the healthcare budget is spent on long term nursing care, and this cost will inevitably increase further in an ageing population. Non-specific cost containment measures may endanger the quality of care for old and mentally disabled people.

Objective: To estimate the costs of health care in 1994, the development of the costs assigned to specific diseases, and the future costs., Design: Descriptive., Setting: Erasmus University, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Method: For each health care sector, costs were allocated to 62 diagnostic groups, age and sex making maximal use of national registries and other sources with data on health care use in the Netherlands., Results: More than 80% of the 60 billion Dutch guilders that were spent on health care in 1994 could be assigned to specific diseases. Most costs were made for non-fatal diseases like mental deficiency, dementia and musculoskeletal disease. Except for cardiovascular disease, the share of major causes of death in the total costs was not significant. Average costs per inhabitant were low during youth and adulthood but increased exponentially with age from age 50 onwards. Between 1988 en 1994, health care costs experienced an annual growth rate of 5.2%, caused by price and wage increases (one half), ageing (a quarter) and other effects on health care costs such as epidemiological and technological change (a quarter)., Conclusion: The main determinants of health care use in the Netherlands were old age and disabling conditions. Due to ageing and other influences, real health care costs in the years to come will increase by an average annual rate of 2.4%.

Objective: Evaluation of the costs, effects and savings of three strategies for female fragile X premutation and full mutation carrier screening in the general population., Methods: We calculated the costs, effects and savings by using a general model for prenatal, preconceptional, and school carrier screening. Assumptions were based on literature data, expert opinions, prices and tariffs., Results: Prenatal screening will detect most carriers and will lead to the highest number of avoided fragile X syndrome patients. The costs per detected carrier are quite similar for all screening programmes (around USD 45,000). All screening strategies have a favourable cost-savings balance (USD 14 million for prenatal screening, USD 9 million for preconceptional screening and USD 2 million for school screening)., Conclusions: From an economic point of view, there is no obstacle to fragile X screening. The decision to screen or not can (and should) therefore concentrate on discussion of medical, social, psychological and ethical considerations.

Objective: To determine whether compression ultrasound examination of both legs, to detect deep venous thrombosis, can be the examination of first choice in patients clinically suspected of pulmonary embolism, assuming that the therapy of thrombosis is the same as the therapy of embolism., Design: Prospective study., Setting: St. Clara Hospital, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Methods: 337 consecutive patients (157 women and 180 men, mean age 65 years, SD: 17.4) suspected of pulmonary embolism underwent compression ultrasound examination of the femoral and popliteal veins to detect deep venous thrombosis, and perfusion lung scintigraphy, with ventilation scintigraphy if indicated. Ultrasound examinations and lung scans were interpreted independently and blinded. A financial analysis of the various strategies was made., Results: Deep venous thrombosis was demonstrated ultrasonographically in four (2%) of 208 patients with a normal lung scan, in four (9%) of 43 patients with a non-diagnostic lung scan, and in 30 (35%) of 86 patients with a high probability lung scan. By starting the diagnostic investigation with ultrasound examination 38 lung scans and chest X-rays would be saved at the cost of 294 extra ultrasound examinations. Because ultrasound examinations are relatively inexpensive a cost reduction of 3.4% would be realised, for the Netherlands approximately 1.4 million guilders. In the United States, however, costs would increase because of the high prices of ultrasound examinations., Conclusion: Compression ultrasound examination of both legs can be the examination of first choice in the Netherlands in patients suspected of pulmonary embolism, as it is cost effective.