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Introduction: Recent findings suggest that the four-variable Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) may be useful in predicting the likelihood of allograft failure in adult kidney transplant (KT) recipients. However, research on its application in pediatric patients is lacking. This study aimed to assess the accuracy of the four-variable KFRE for prediction of the two-year and five-year risk of allograft failure in a cohort of pediatric KT recipients., Methods: A retrospective observational study of patients undergoing KT in a tertiary pediatric nephrology unit between 2007 and 2017 was conducted. The KFRE risk scores were determined using data collected one-year post-transplantation. Discrimination and calibration properties of the four-variable KFRE were assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration plots., Results: Fifty-nine patients with a median age of 12.4 (9.1-15.7) years at KT were included. Eleven (18.6%) were living donor recipients. The median estimated glomerular filtration rate one-year post-transplantation was 62.0 (49.0-75.0) mL/min/1.73 m 2 . One (1.7%) and three (5.1%) patients experienced allograft failure within two and five years following the one-year post-transplantation date, respectively. The four-variable KFRE showed excellent and very good discrimination for the two-year and five-year risks, respectively (AUC 0.966, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.914-1.000; AUC 0.887, 95% CI 0.732-1.000). Calibration plots demonstrated imprecise calibration., Conclusion: The four-variable KFRE shows promise in predicting kidney failure progression in pediatric KT recipients with a functioning allograft one-year post-transplantation. Larger-scale studies are essential to confirm its predictive accuracy and establish more definitive conclusions., Competing Interests: Human subjects: Consent for treatment and open access publication was obtained or waived by all participants in this study. Comissão de Ética Santo António, Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas Abel Salazar issued approval 2024-082. This study received approval from the institution’s ethics committee on June 5, 2024. It complies with all relevant national regulations and institutional policies and is in accordance with the tenets of the Helsinki Declaration. Animal subjects: All authors have confirmed that this study did not involve animal subjects or tissue. Conflicts of interest: In compliance with the ICMJE uniform disclosure form, all authors declare the following: Payment/services info: All authors have declared that no financial support was received from any organization for the submitted work. Financial relationships: All authors have declared that they have no financial relationships at present or within the previous three years with any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work. Other relationships: All authors have declared that there are no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (Copyright © 2024, Nogueira Machado et al.)

Introduction, objectives: Although cardiovascular events have been traditionally associated mainly with men, some data reflect an increase in women, which may even exceed their male counterparts, constituting the leading cause of death in working women in Spain. The objective of this present study was to analyze the level of cardiovascular risk in Spanish working women by assessing the influence of age, type of work, and tobacco consumption., Material, Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out in 172,282 working women from different Spanish geographical areas and from different companies between January 2018 and June 2020. A range of variables and risk factors were assessed and various cardiovascular risk scales were used to analyze the data., Results: An increase in cardiovascular risk was observed in the least qualified work groups, mainly corresponding to blue-collar workers, when using the SCORE or REGICOR risk equation. The prevalence of altered values for all the parameters analyzed (overweight and obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, fatty liver, hepatic fibrosis, atherogenic indexes, and cardiovascular risk scales) was higher among blue-collar women. Age was the only factor that influenced all the cardiovascular risk scales studied, increasing risk when comparing the group of women aged 50 years and older with the others., Conclusions: Aging and belonging to the blue-collar job category meant worse results in the cardiovascular risk scales and in all the parameters analyzed. This is in line with numerous studies that argue that age and zip code are more influential than genetic code.

Background: GPs frequently use 10-year-risk estimations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to identify high- risk patients., Aim: To assess the performance of four models for predicting the 10-year risk of CVD in Dutch general practice., Design and Setting: Prospective cohort study. Routine data (2009- 2019) was used from 46 Dutch general practices linked to cause of death statistics., Method: The outcome measures were fatal CVD for SCORE and first diagnosis of fatal or non- fatal CVD for SCORE fatal and non-fatal (SCORE- FNF), Globorisk-laboratory, and Globorisk-office. Model performance was assessed by examining discrimination and calibration., Results: The final number of patients for risk prediction was 1981 for SCORE and SCORE-FNF, 3588 for Globorisk-laboratory, and 4399 for Globorisk- office. The observed percentage of events was 18.6% ( n = 353) for SCORE- FNF, 6.9% ( n = 230) for Globorisk-laboratory, 7.9% ( n = 323) for Globorisk-office, and 0.3% ( n = 5) for SCORE. The models showed poor discrimination and calibration. The performance of SCORE could not be examined because of the limited number of fatal CVD events. SCORE-FNF, the model that is currently used for risk prediction of fatal plus non-fatal CVD in Dutch general practice, was found to underestimate the risk in all deciles of predicted risks., Conclusion: Wide eligibility criteria and a broad outcome measure contribute to the model applicability in daily practice. The restriction to fatal CVD outcomes of SCORE renders it less usable in routine Dutch general practice. The models seriously underestimate the 10-year risk of fatal plus non-fatal CVD in Dutch general practice. The poor model performance is possibly because of differences between patients that are eligible for risk prediction and the population that was used for model development. In addition, selection of higher-risk patients for CVD risk assessment by GPs may also contribute to the poor model performance., (© The Authors.)

Background: Obesity and overweight are major risk factors for several chronic diseases. There is limited systematic evaluation of risk equations that predict the likelihood of developing an obesity or overweight associated complication. Predicting future risk is essential for health economic modelling. Availability of future treatments rests upon a model's ability to inform clinical and decision-making bodies.  This systematic literature review aimed to identify studies reporting (1) equations that calculate the risk for individuals with obesity, or overweight with a weight-related complication (OWRC), of developing additional complications, namely T2D, cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD), acute coronary syndrome, stroke, musculoskeletal disorders, knee replacement/arthroplasty, or obstructive sleep apnea; (2) absolute or proportional risk for individuals with severe obesity, obesity or OWRC developing T2D, a CV event or mortality from knee surgery, stroke, or an acute CV event., Methods: Databases (MEDLINE and Embase) were searched for English language reports of population-based cohort analyses or large-scale studies in Australia, Canada, Europe, the UK, and the USA between January 1, 2011, and March 29, 2021. Included reports were quality assessed using an adapted version of the Newcastle Ottawa Scale., Results: Of the 60 included studies, the majority used European cohorts. Twenty-nine reported a risk prediction equation for developing an additional complication. The most common risk prediction equations were logistic regression models that did not differentiate between body mass index (BMI) groups (particularly above 40 kg/m 2 ) and lacked external validation. The remaining included studies (31 studies) reported the absolute or proportional risk of mortality (29 studies), or the risk of developing T2D in a population with obesity and with prediabetes or normal glucose tolerance (NGT) (three studies), or a CV event in populations with severe obesity with NGT or T2D (three studies). Most reported proportional risk, predominantly a hazard ratio., Conclusion: More work is needed to develop and validate these risk equations, specifically in non-European cohorts and that distinguish between BMI class II and III obesity. New data or adjustment of the current risk equations by calibration would allow for more accurate decision making at an individual and population level., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Rationale & Objective: Stratification of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients at risk for progressing to kidney failure requiring kidney replacement therapy (KFRT) is important for clinical decision-making and trial enrollment., Study Design: Four independent prospective observational cohort studies., Setting & Participants: The development cohort comprised 4,915 CKD patients, and 3 independent validation cohorts comprised a total of 3,063. Patients were observed for approximately 5 years., Exposure: 22 demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory variables commonly assessed in CKD patients., Outcome: Progression to KFRT., Analytical Approach: A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox proportional hazards model was fit to select laboratory variables that best identified patients at high risk for KFRT. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed and compared against the 4-variable Tangri (T4) risk equation both in a resampling approach within the development cohort and in the validation cohorts using cause-specific concordance (C) statistics, net reclassification improvement, and calibration graphs., Results: The newly derived 6-variable risk score (Z6) included serum creatinine, albumin, cystatin C, and urea, as well as hemoglobin and the urinary albumin-creatinine ratio. In the the resampling approach, Z6 achieved a median C statistic of 0.909 (95% CI, 0.868-0.937) at 2 years after the baseline visit, whereas the T4 achieved a median C statistic of 0.855 (95% CI, 0.799-0.915). In the 3 independent validation cohorts, the Z6C statistics were 0.894, 0.921, and 0.891, whereas the T4C statistics were 0.882, 0.913, and 0.862., Limitations: The Z6 was both derived and tested only in White European cohorts., Conclusions: A new risk equation based on 6 routinely available laboratory tests facilitates identification of patients with CKD who are at high risk of progressing to KFRT., (Copyright © 2021 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Predicting allograft failure in kidney transplant recipients can help plan renal replacement therapy and guide patient-provider communication. The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) accurately predicts the need for dialysis in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but has not been validated in kidney transplant recipients., Objective: We sought to validate the 4-variable KFRE (age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR]) for prediction of 2- and 5-year death-censored allograft failure., Design: Retrospective cohort study., Setting: Four independent North American Cohorts from Ontario, Canada; Alberta, Canada; Manitoba, Canada; and Wisconsin, United States, between January 1999 and December 2017., Patients: Adult kidney transplant patients at 1-year posttransplantation., Measurements: Kidney failure risk as measured by the KFRE (eGFR, urine ACR, age, and sex)., Methods: We included all adult patients who had at least 1 serum creatinine and at least 1 urine ACR measurement approximately 1 year following kidney transplantation. The performance of the KFRE was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (C-statistic). C-statistics from the 4 cohorts were meta-analyzed using random-effects models., Results: A total of 3659 patients were included. Pooled C-statistics were good in the entire population, at 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.91) for the 2-year KFRE and 0.73 (0.67-0.80) for the 5-year KFRE. Discrimination improved among patients with poorer kidney function (eGFR < 45 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ), with a C-statistic of 0.88 (0.78-0.98) for the 2-year KFRE and 0.83 (0.74-0.91) for the 5-year KFRE., Limitations: The KFRE does not predict episodes of acute rejection and there was heterogeneity between cohorts., Conclusions: The KFRE accurately predicts kidney failure in kidney transplant recipients at 1-year posttransplantation. Further validation in larger cohorts with longer follow-up times can strengthen the case for clinical implementation., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting Interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article., (© The Author(s) 2020.)

This study was performed to develop and validate a predictive model for the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) inpatients with diabetic nephropathy (DN) confirmed by renal biopsy. We conducted a retrospective study with 968 patients with T2DM who underwentrenal biopsy for the pathological confirmation of DNat the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from February 2012 to January 2015; the patients were followed until December 2018. The outcome was defined as a fatal or nonfatal ESRD event (peritoneal dialysis or hemodialysis for ESRD, renal transplantation, or death due to chronic renal failure or ESRD). The dataset was randomly split into development (75%) and validation (25%) cohorts. We used stepwise multivariablelogistic regression to identify baseline predictors for model development. The model's performance in the two cohorts, including discrimination and calibration, was evaluated by the C-statistic and the P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. During the 3-year follow-up period, there were 225 outcome events (47.1%) during follow-up. Outcomes occurred in 187 patients (52.2%) in the derivation cohort and 38 patients (31.7%) in the validation cohort. The variables selected in the final multivariable logistic regression after backward selection were pathological grade, Log Urinary Albumin-to-creatinine ratio (Log ACR), cystatin C, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). 4 prediction models were created in a derivation cohort of 478 patients: a clinical model that included cystatin C, eGFR, BNP, Log ACR; a clinical-pathological model and a clinical-medication model, respectively, also contained pathological grade and renin-angiotensin system blocker (RASB) use; and a full model that also contained the pathological grade, RASB use and age. Compared with the clinical model, the clinical-pathological model and the full model had better C statistics (0.865 and 0.866, respectively, vs. 0.864) in the derivation cohort and better C statistics (0.876 and 0.875, respectively, vs. 0.870) in the validation cohort. Among the four models, the clinical-pathological model had the lowest AIC of 332.53 and the best P value of 0.909 of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We constructed a nomogram which was a simple calculator to predict the risk ratio of progression to ESRD for patients with DN within 3 years. The clinical-pathological model using routinely available clinical measurements was shown to be accurate and validated method for predicting disease progression in patients with DN. The risk model can be used in clinical practice to improve the quality of risk management and early intervention., Competing Interests: The authors declare there are no competing interests., (©2020 Sun et al.)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate a risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases for each worker and to determine whether this risk is associated with the incidence and costs of presenteeism, absenteeism, and medical/drug treatments., Methods: Established risk equations were used to estimate the 10-year probability of developing coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke in male workers aged 40-65 years who were recruited from four pharmaceutical companies in Japan. The incidence of presenteeism was defined as existence of presenteeism for the past a month, and the incidence of absenteeism was defined as existence of sick-leave for the past three months by a self-administered questionnaire. Each cost was calculated based on the human capital method. Data on medical/drug treatments were collected from health insurance claims., Results: The risks were calculated for 6047 workers. Individuals at moderate and high risk of coronary artery disease had a significantly higher rate of presenteeism and absenteeism than workers at low risk. Workers at moderate and high risk of ischemic stroke also had a significantly higher rate of presenteeism and absenteeism than workers at low risk. Mean costs for absenteeism and medical/drug treatments increased with the risk of developing coronary artery disease or ischemic stroke, while costs for presenteeism did not., Conclusions: To prevent the costs of presenteeism, workers not only at high risk but also at low and moderate risk of developing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases should receive health care services., (© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Occupational Health published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of The Japan Society for Occupational Health.)

Predicting outcomes to guide clinical care, decision making, and resource allocation is a challenging undertaking in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Many prediction models have been developed, but few have been appropriately externally validated and even fewer have been assessed to be usable in the clinical setting. This contributes to the currently infrequent use of existing prediction models. Patients with CKD are a particularly heterogeneous group with significant biological variability, making the development of useful prediction models even more challenging. This article explores the different challenges in the development, validation, and application of prediction models in CKD. We explore the notion that newer biomarkers offer potential for enhancing existing and future prediction models and that modern technology is an opportunity to make prediction models more accessible and less cumbersome to use in clinical practice. Despite the challenges associated with their development and implementation, clinical prediction models have the potential to be a powerful tool for clinicians, researchers, and policy makers alike., (Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a subcategory of pulmonary hypertension (PH) that comprises a group of disorders with similar pulmonary vascular pathology. Though PH is common, the estimated incidence of IPAH is 1-3 cases per million, making it a rare disease. The hemodynamic definition of PAH is a mean pulmonary artery pressure at rest >OR = 25 mm Hg in the presence of a pulmonary capillary wedge pressure

The objectives of this review are to discuss data on the cardiovascular risk increase associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the effects of RA treatments on the cardiovascular risk level, and the management of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with RA. Overall, the risk of cardiovascular disease is increased 2-fold in RA patients compared to the general population, due to the combined effects of RA and conventional risk factors. There is some evidence that the cardiovascular risk increase associated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug therapy may be smaller in RA patients than in the general population. Glucocorticoid therapy increases the cardiovascular risk in proportion to both the current dose and the cumulative dose. Methotrexate and TNFα antagonists diminish cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates. The management of dyslipidemia remains suboptimal. Risk equations may perform poorly in RA patients even when corrected using the multiplication factors suggested by the EUropean League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) (multiply the score by 1.5 when two of the following three criteria are met: disease duration longer than 10 years, presence of rheumatoid factor or anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibodies, and extraarticular manifestations). Doppler ultrasonography of the carotid arteries in patients at moderate cardiovascular risk may allow a more aggressive approach to dyslipidemia management via reclassification into the high-risk category of patients with an intima-media thickness greater than 0.9 mm or atheroma plaque., (Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier SAS.)