Search

Background: As populations age, frailty and the associated demand for health care increase. Evidence needed to inform planning and commissioning of services for older people living with frailty is scarce. Accurate information on incidence and prevalence of different levels of frailty and the consequences for health outcomes, service use and costs at population level is needed., Objectives: To explore the incidence, prevalence, progression and impact of frailty within an ageing general practice population and model the dynamics of frailty-related healthcare demand, outcomes and costs, to inform the development of guidelines and tools to facilitate commissioning and service development., Study Design and Methods: A retrospective observational study with statistical modelling to inform simulation (system dynamics) modelling using routine data from primary and secondary health care in England and Wales. Modelling was informed by stakeholder engagement events conducted in Hampshire, England. Data sources included the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre databank, and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Population prevalence, incidence and progression of frailty within an ageing cohort were estimated using the electronic Frailty Index tool, and associated service use and costs were calculated. Association of frailty with outcomes, service use and costs was explored with multistate and generalised linear models. Results informed development of a prototype system dynamics simulation model, exploring population impact of frailty and future scenarios over a 10-year time frame. Simulation model population projections were externally validated against retrospective data from Secure Anonymised Information Linkage., Study Population: The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sample comprised an open cohort of the primary care population aged 50 + between 2006 and 2017 (approx. 2.1 million people). Data were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics death data. A comparable validation data set from Secure Anonymised Information Linkage was generated., Baseline Measures: Electronic Frailty Index score calculated annually and stratified into Fit, Mild, Moderate and Severe frailty categories. Other variables included age, sex, Index of Multiple Deprivation score, ethnicity and Urban/rural., Outcomes: Frailty transitions, mortality, hospitalisations, emergency department attendances, general practitioner visits and costs., Findings: Frailty is already present in people aged 50-64. Frailty incidence was 47 cases per 1000 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5% (2006) to 38.9% (2017). Older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban location independently predict frailty onset and progression; 4.8% of 'fit' people aged 50-64 years experienced a transition to a higher frailty state in a year, compared to 21.4% aged 75-84. Individual healthcare use rises with frailty severity, but Mild and Moderate frailty groups have higher overall costs due to larger population numbers. Simulation projections indicate frailty will increase by 7.1%, from 41.5% to 48.7% between 2017 and 2027, and associated costs will rise by £5.8 billion (in England) over an 11-year period., Conclusions: Simulation modelling indicates that frailty prevalence and associated service use and costs will continue to rise in the future. Scenario analysis indicates reduction of incidence and slowing of progression, particularly before the age of 65, has potential to substantially reduce future service use and costs, but reducing unplanned admissions in frail older people has a more modest impact. Study outputs will be collated into a commissioning toolkit, comprising guidance on drivers of frailty-related demand and simulation model outputs., Study Registration: This study is registered as NCT04139278 www.clinicaltrials.gov., Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 16/116/43) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research ; Vol. 12, No. 44. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Background: Frailty is a common condition in older adults and has a major impact on patient outcomes and service use. Information on the prevalence in middle-aged adults and the patterns of progression of frailty at an individual and population level is scarce. To address this, a cohort was defined from a large primary care database in England to describe the epidemiology of frailty and understand the dynamics of frailty within individuals and across the population. This article describes the structure of the dataset, cohort characteristics and planned analyses., Methods: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records. Participants were aged ≥50 years registered in practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre between 2006 to 2017. Data include GP practice details, patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, twice-yearly electronic Frailty Index (eFI), deaths, medication use and primary and secondary care health service use. Participants in each cohort year by age group, GP and patient characteristics at cohort entry are described., Results: The cohort includes 2,177,656 patients, contributing 15,552,946 person-years, registered at 419 primary care practices in England. The mean age was 61 years, 52.1% of the cohort was female, and 77.6% lived in urban environments. Frailty increased with age, affecting 10% of adults aged 50-64 and 43.7% of adults aged ≥65. The prevalence of long-term conditions and specific frailty deficits increased with age, as did the eFI and the severity of frailty categories., Conclusion: A comprehensive understanding of frailty dynamics will inform predictions of current and future care needs to facilitate timely planning of appropriate interventions, service configurations and workforce requirements. Analysis of this large, nationally representative cohort including participants aged ≥50 will capture earlier transitions to frailty and enable a detailed understanding of progression and impact. These results will inform novel simulation models which predict future health and service needs of older people living with frailty., Study Registration: Registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov October 25th 2019, NCT04139278 ., (© 2022. The Author(s).)