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No global analysis has considered the warming that could be averted through improved solid waste management and how much that could contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement's 1.5° and 2°C pathway goals or the terms of the Global Methane Pledge. With our estimated global solid waste generation of 2.56 to 3.33 billion tonnes by 2050, implementing abrupt technical and behavioral changes could result in a net-zero warming solid waste system relative to 2020, leading to 11 to 27 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide warming-equivalent emissions under the temperature limits. These changes, however, require accelerated adoption within 9 to 17 years (by 2033 to 2041) to align with the Global Methane Pledge. Rapidly reducing methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide emissions is necessary to maximize the short-term climate benefits and stop the ongoing temperature rise.

The quasi-option value (QOV) literature originated by Arrow et al. (Arrow, K.J., Fisher, A.C., 1974. Environmental preservation, uncertainty, and irreversibility. Quarterly Journal of Economics 88, 312-319) and by Henry (Henry, C., 1974. Option values in the economics of irreplaceable assets. Review of Economic Studies 41, 89-104) is largely concerned with the analysis of two-period models of land development. Our paper extends this literature by analyzing two scenarios in which the decision to develop land is made in a multi-period and stochastic framework. In the first scenario, the development decision is indivisible. In contrast, in the second scenario, the development decision is divisible. Specifically, we study the properties of the indivisible development decision when there is a time constraint on when land is to be developed. We then analyze the ways in which the divisible land development decision depends on the extent of a landowner's landholding and on the number of development opportunities awaiting this landowner.