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Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere., (© 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Well-designed approaches to ecological restoration can benefit nature and society. This is particularly the case in tropical agroecosystems, where restoration can provide substantial socioecological benefits at relatively low costs. To successfully restore tropical agroecosystems and maximise benefits, initiatives must begin by considering 'who' should be involved in and benefit from restoration, and 'what', 'where', and 'how' restoration should occur. Based on collective experience of restoring tropical agroecosystems worldwide, we present nine actions to guide future restoration of these systems, supported by case studies that demonstrate our actions being used successfully in practice and highlighting cases where poorly designed restoration has been damaging. We call for increased restoration activity in tropical agroecosystems during the current UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests Authors are affiliated with the restoration projects that are outlined in the case studies in this manuscript: A.R. (Restoring the Madagascan Fandriana-Marolambo landscape); M.D.P., A.A.K.A., D.B., J.-P.C., P.H., H.K., M.N., E.C.T., D.C.Z., and S.H.L. (Restoring cultivated oil palm landscapes in Indonesia and Malaysia); F.A. and A.D.G.C. (Restoring the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest)., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)