1. Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related events in anti-HDV positive individuals.
- Author
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Patmore LA, Spaan M, Agarwal K, Koc ÖM, Blokzijl H, Brouwer S, van Soest H, van Hulzen AGW, Janssen HLA, Lammers AJJ, Jansen L, Claassen M, de Man RA, Takkenberg RB, van Dijk R, Posthouwer D, Reijnders JGP, Carey I, and Sonneveld MJ
- Abstract
Background and Aims: Chronic hepatitis D (CHD) is the most severe form of chronic viral hepatitis, with a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality. Risk stratification is needed to guide HCC surveillance strategies and to prioritize treatment with antiviral agents., Methods: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort of anti-HDV positive individuals managed at sites in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. We studied the 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC and liver-related events (first of HCC, liver transplantation and liver-related mortality), in the overall cohort and among relevant subgroups., Results: We analyzed 269 anti-HDV positive individuals with a median follow-up of 4.3 years in which 47 first events occurred. The 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC and liver-related events were 3.8% and 15.6% in the overall cohort. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC and liver-related events for individuals without cirrhosis was 0% and 0.9% compared to 12% and 41.3% for individuals with cirrhosis (p<0.001). The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC and liver-related events was 0% and 2.1% among individuals with low PAGE-B scores, compared to 3.2% and 21.1% with intermediate and 25.4% and 45.5% with high risk scores (p<0.001). We found comparable results for the FIB-4 score. Findings were consistent regardless of cirrhosis or detectable HDV RNA (p<0.001)., Conclusion: Anti-HDV positive individuals are at high risk of adverse liver-related outcomes. The incidences of HCC was negligible among individuals without cirrhosis and among individuals with low baseline PAGE-B and/or FIB-4 scores. Therefore, these score can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies and potentially also for treatment prioritization., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Inc.)
- Published
- 2024
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