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Denne afhandling undersøger eekten på samhandelen ved at et land har sin valuta knyttet til en kurv af udenlandske valutaer. Virkningerne kvantificeres gennem prisfastsættelse af omkostningerne for at forsikre handel mod valutakursudsving. Det vil sige eksponeringen mod valutakursrisiko afdækkes ved at købe en option, der er prissættes i en Black-Scholes lignende model. Vi fastgører valutaens værdi til en kurv under tre forskellige kriterier: en kurv der simpelt repræsenterer landets handelsmønster, en hvis vægte er optimeret for at minimere handelsvolatiliteten og en der har vægte som minimerer omkostningerne ved at forsikre handlen. Det påvises, at der er betydelige handelsgevinster forbundet med at et lands valutakurs følger disse kurve. De empiriske undersøgelser omhandler Danmark og Tyrkiet ned i detaljen og 95 udviklingslande på et mere generelt niveau. Resultaterne viser at kronen skal forblive fastgjort til euroen, at Tyrkiet kan opnå store forbedringer ved at følge en af de tre kurve og at der er enorme potentielle handelsgevinster for udviklingslandene., This thesis examines the effects on trade for a country having its currency pegged to a basket of foreign currencies. The effects are quantified through the pricing the cost of insuring trade against exchange rate fluctuations. That is the currency risk exposure is hedged by an option which is priced in Black-Scholes framework. We apply the pegging to a basket under three different criteria: one basket is simply representing the trade composition of the country, one is optimized to obtain the minimum trade volatility and one has weight to minimizing the insurance cost. It is demonstrated that there are considerable trade gains associated with the pegging to these baskets. The empirical investigations cover Denmark and Turkey in detail and 95 developing in a more general perspective. We nd that the Danish Kroner should remain fixed to the euro, Turkey could achieve large improvements by pegging to either of the three baskets as well as there are huge potential trade gains for the developing countries.

Denne afhandling undersøger eekten på samhandelen ved at et land har sin valuta knyttet til en kurv af udenlandske valutaer. Virkningerne kvantificeres gennem prisfastsættelse af omkostningerne for at forsikre handel mod valutakursudsving. Det vil sige eksponeringen mod valutakursrisiko afdækkes ved at købe en option, der er prissættes i en Black-Scholes lignende model. Vi fastgører valutaens værdi til en kurv under tre forskellige kriterier: en kurv der simpelt repræsenterer landets handelsmønster, en hvis vægte er optimeret for at minimere handelsvolatiliteten og en der har vægte som minimerer omkostningerne ved at forsikre handlen. Det påvises, at der er betydelige handelsgevinster forbundet med at et lands valutakurs følger disse kurve. De empiriske undersøgelser omhandler Danmark og Tyrkiet ned i detaljen og 95 udviklingslande på et mere generelt niveau. Resultaterne viser at kronen skal forblive fastgjort til euroen, at Tyrkiet kan opnå store forbedringer ved at følge en af de tre kurve og at der er enorme potentielle handelsgevinster for udviklingslandene., This thesis examines the effects on trade for a country having its currency pegged to a basket of foreign currencies. The effects are quantified through the pricing the cost of insuring trade against exchange rate fluctuations. That is the currency risk exposure is hedged by an option which is priced in Black-Scholes framework. We apply the pegging to a basket under three different criteria: one basket is simply representing the trade composition of the country, one is optimized to obtain the minimum trade volatility and one has weight to minimizing the insurance cost. It is demonstrated that there are considerable trade gains associated with the pegging to these baskets. The empirical investigations cover Denmark and Turkey in detail and 95 developing in a more general perspective. We nd that the Danish Kroner should remain fixed to the euro, Turkey could achieve large improvements by pegging to either of the three baskets as well as there are huge potential trade gains for the developing countries.